Confirmed with Link: Craig Berube named the 32nd Coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs

[weems]

I'm gonna guess he had his panties in a bunch over a small sample size if you criticized the record on those years.

This year though? Who cares.

It would be that our record is actually quite impressive when you factor in the major underperformance of the powerplay but how noone should take it seriously because it's such a small sample size and it's bound to normalize.

There would be tons of talk about how the underlying numbers look very good and we've just been unlucky.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm gonna guess he had his panties in a bunch over a small sample size if you criticized the record on those years.
This year though? Who cares.

It would be that our record is actually quite impressive when you factor in the major underperformance of the powerplay but how noone should take it seriously because it's such a small sample size and it's bound to normalize. There would be tons of talk about how the underlying numbers look very good and we've just been unlucky.

The only ones changing their positions here are you.

You went from using outcomes in small samples to make broad conclusions, blame the coach and GM, and predict doom and failure, to now dismissing outcomes because they're small samples, praising the coach and GM, and predicting we improve as the sample grows, by pointing to underlying metrics and luck.

I went from acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics, to acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics.

I was just pointing out that comparing the entirety of Berube's tenure to a small outlier sample of Keefe's tenure is not a great comparison, and the conclusion that the individual drew from that didn't fit the facts of the bigger sample. Perhaps we should wait for the bigger sample from Berube before making proclamations and acting like Berube leading us to a 7-5-2 record in the regular season is some great success.

Our underlying metrics are a bit better than last year so far, and that's good, but they are still 4th best of the last 5 years, which isn't so good. And while we have indeed been a bit unlucky so far, the 1.61% lower that our GF% is than our xGF% has been a bit exaggerated. Our results have underperformed our underlying metrics on the PP so far, but our results have overperformed our underlying metrics 5v5.

 

[Da Mash]

The fans have done their job for the last nearly 60 years. It is time that ownership and their franchise do the same. I trust that Berube is demanding the same.

Lift the damn Cup. The year after, no fan will even care if Leafs finish at the bottom, score 400 goals while giving up 405. In any current year though, play the game right and sacrifice everything to win.

I agree the fans have done their job......I at least witnessed their last cup

I witnessed teams win mulitple rounds years after years and they never won the cup. With the cap etc wining 2 or 3 rounds guarantees nothing the following year.

The days of thinking teams building confidence from winning a few rounds as a stepping stone are over. There is way too many other variables that have more effect in playoff success then building off previous series wins in previous playoffs .

 

[weems]

The only ones changing their positions here are you.

You went from using outcomes in small samples to make broad conclusions, blame the coach and GM, and predict doom and failure, to now dismissing outcomes because they're small samples, praising the coach and GM, and predicting we improve as the sample grows, by pointing to underlying metrics and luck.

I went from acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics, to acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics.

I was just pointing out that comparing the entirety of Berube's tenure to a small outlier sample of Keefe's tenure is not a great comparison, and the conclusion that the individual drew from that didn't fit the facts of the bigger sample. Perhaps we should wait for the bigger sample from Berube before making proclamations and acting like Berube leading us to a 7-5-2 record in the regular season is some great success.

Our underlying metrics are a bit better than last year so far, and that's good, but they are still 4th best of the last 5 years, which isn't so good. And while we have indeed been a bit unlucky so far, the 1.61% lower that our GF% is than our xGF% has been a bit exaggerated. Our results have underperformed our underlying metrics on the PP so far, but our results have overperformed our underlying metrics 5v5.

I wasn't always negative towards Dubas though.
It actually went something like, I innitially thought he did a good job, then became skeptical, then praised him at points during the 22/23 but by the end thought we needed to make a change. It feels like there is an obvious negativity towards anything Treliving/Berube related where just a short time ago, this start would have been held in a much more positive frame than currently.

I haven't said our current record under Berube is some great success, just that our PP has literally been one of the worst in the league thru 12 games at actually producing real goals and that has badly cost us point's wise.

 

[BertCorbeau]

As expected there have been notable ups and downs adjusting to the new coach but you can see the style differences. I'd say there have been more positives with how they've played at times then negatives. It's well suited for playoff hockey. Additionally, their underlying numbers are quite strong which lends hope that they'll start going on more winning streaks.

Better special teams probably wins them an extra 2-3 games. If they were 9-3-2 we'd probably be pretty excited around here.

The PP just can't be that bad for this long and hopefully the Boston game is the turning point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wasn't always negative towards Dubas though. It actually went something like, I innitially thought he did a good job, then became skeptical, then praised him at points during the 22/23 but by the end thought we needed to make a change. It feels like there is an obvious negativity towards anything Treliving/Berube related where just a short time ago, this start would have been held in a much more positive frame than currently.

I've credited Treliving and Berube for stuff, and criticized Dubas and Keefe for stuff. I was actually in favour of moving on from Keefe, and have blasted both coaches equally for things like playing Reaves. My positions and approach on things have remained the exact same, and I haven't framed the stat in any way. If you see framing, it is because the majority of the board has 180'd on everything they used to argue, which makes the voice of reason take a different form.

I care about the facts, so when the board is irrationally negative, positive reality checks are more often required (and I continue that in areas where people remain negative). When the board is irrationally positive (especially in order to be irrationally negative about the predecessor), a reality check about how things compare is required. Some interpret that as being negative, even though I'm probably more optimistic about our chances of winning than the majority of this board. It just doesn't mean I stop calling it like it is.

We should also remember that during poor starts in past years, we had a significant sample under Keefe with good results that we were adding onto, whereas this is all we have for Berube. I'd personally like to wait for good results before I start praising him. I think it's pretty hypocritical of people to praise results for this coach/GM if they criticized the exact same results previously, even when there were better underlying metrics.

I haven't said our current record under Berube is some great success, just that our PP has literally been one of the worst in the league thru 12 games at actually producing real goals and that has badly cost us point's wise.

Our PP has struggled converting (especially prior to last game), but we're currently only 1.36 goals below expected on the PP. Part of the reason our PP goals have gone down this year is that our PP shot and chance generation has also gotten worse. While that is not all Berube's fault, and yes it is early and a small sample, he has messed around with combinations quite a bit this year, and we're not getting great results out of that so far - surface or underlying.

 

[Leafsfan74]

I agree the fans have done their job......I at least witnessed their last cup

I witnessed teams win mulitple rounds years after years and they never won the cup. With the cap etc wining 2 or 3 rounds guarantees nothing the following year.

The days of thinking teams building confidence from winning a few rounds as a stepping stone are over. There is way too many other variables that have more effect in playoff success then building off previous series wins in previous playoffs .

This is what made the T.B runs that much more impressive, even thought they most likely cheated in the salary cap.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

As expected there have been notable ups and downs adjusting to the new coach but you can see the style differences. I'd say there have been more positives with how they've played at times then negatives. It's well suited for playoff hockey. Additionally, their underlying numbers are quite strong which lends hope that they'll start going on more winning streaks.

Better special teams probably wins them an extra 2-3 games. If they were 9-3-2 we'd probably be pretty excited around here.

The PP just can't be that bad for this long and hopefully the Boston game is the turning point.

If there is one thing I noticed about Berube's team so far is they are far less likely to shoot themselves in the foot than they were with Keefe. The main 2 times I saw the old leafs crop up was the 2 overtime losses where AM and Domi made crucial mistakes at a pivotal moment. We need to weed those out as the season goes on so it becomes automatic for us in the post season IMO.

Duane Sutter said that when he coached the Kings he found it hard to make the playoffs playing a playoff style, but, if you get in...you are already a primed machine. This is what we might have to go through this season...let's see.

 

[BertCorbeau]

If there is one thing I noticed about Berube's team so far is they are far less likely to shoot themselves in the foot than they were with Keefe. The main 2 times I saw the old leafs crop up was the 2 overtime losses where AM and Domi made crucial mistakes at a pivotal moment. We need to weed those out as the season goes on so it becomes automatic for us in the post season IMO.

Duane Sutter said that when he coached the Kings he found it hard to make the playoffs playing a playoff style, but, if you get in...you are already a primed machine. This is what we might have to go through this season...let's see.

It's what Maurice has done in Florida

 

[Racer88]

We played at a 109 point pace through Keefe's tenure. We're currently at a 94 point pace under Berube.
You can think that we're going to do better as the season progresses. I think so too.
But so far, there's no success to point to, that even equals what we did under Keefe.

Basically this years issue are how much Matthews has regressed. He has been a mess to start the season……when he’s been there

 

[thusk]

We played at a 109 point pace through Keefe's tenure. We're currently at a 94 point pace under Berube.
You can think that we're going to do better as the season progresses. I think so too.
But so far, there's no success to point to, that even equals what we did under Keefe.

Who's care about number of pts in regular season. First year under Maurice, Florida had been 1 win from pittsburgh against an awful Chicago team to be eject out of playoff just with time they needed to ajust to a new system/ philosophy/ style of play. That will take until christmas for lwafs to be fully adapt to new system

After 2 month, despite the fact player learning a complete new system, new way to play... They are in the same exact spot the was the previous season.

The goal is to be better as a team come playoff time, not in regular season.

 

[Evilhomer]

I've credited Treliving and Berube for stuff, and criticized Dubas and Keefe for stuff. I was actually in favour of moving on from Keefe, and have blasted both coaches equally for things like playing Reaves. My positions and approach on things have remained the exact same, and I haven't framed the stat in any way. If you see framing, it is because the majority of the board has 180'd on everything they used to argue, which makes the voice of reason take a different form.

I care about the facts, so when the board is irrationally negative, positive reality checks are more often required (and I continue that in areas where people remain negative). When the board is irrationally positive (especially in order to be irrationally negative about the predecessor), a reality check about how things compare is required. Some interpret that as being negative, even though I'm probably more optimistic about our chances of winning than the majority of this board. It just doesn't mean I stop calling it like it is.

We should also remember that during poor starts in past years, we had a significant sample under Keefe with good results that we were adding onto, whereas this is all we have for Berube. I'd personally like to wait for good results before I start praising him. I think it's pretty hypocritical of people to praise results for this coach/GM if they criticized the exact same results previously, even when there were better underlying metrics.

Our PP has struggled converting (especially prior to last game), but we're currently only 1.36 goals below expected on the PP. Part of the reason our PP goals have gone down this year is that our PP shot and chance generation has also gotten worse. While that is not all Berube's fault, and yes it is early and a small sample, he has messed around with combinations quite a bit this year, and we're not getting great results out of that so far - surface or underlying.

People have to let the season play out. It's still very early.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Basically this years issue are how much Matthews has regressed.

Matthews probably isn't going to be a 32 goal scorer, but Nylander is also probably not going to be a 55 goal scorer, Knies is probably not going to be a 40 goal scorer, Stolarz is probably not going to be a top-4 goalie, etc.

First year under Maurice, Florida had been 1 win from pittsburgh against an awful Chicago team to be eject out of playoff just with time they needed to ajust to a new system/ philosophy/ style of play. That will take until christmas for lwafs to be fully adapt to new system

NHL teams don't take months to adapt to new systems. We were instantly better when we switched to Keefe, and he didn't even get a training camp. The Florida thing is a myth to push a narrative. Their underlying play in the first and second half of that year was pretty much the same.

The goal is to be better as a team come playoff time, not in regular season.

The goal is to be a better team, period. There is no one or the other.

People have to let the season play out. It's still very early.

I agree.

 

[thusk]

Matthews probably isn't going to be a 32 goal scorer, but Nylander is also probably not going to be a 55 goal scorer, Knies is probably not going to be a 40 goal scorer, Stolarz is probably not going to be a top-4 goalie, etc.

NHL teams don't take months to adapt to new systems. We were instantly better when we switched to Keefe, and he didn't even get a training camp. The Florida thing is a myth to push a narrative. Their underlying play in the first and second half of that year was pretty much the same.

The goal is to be a better team, period. There is no one or the other.

I agree.

Be completly adapt to a system, yes that's taking time.

You can get a boost of momemtum who able to drive you for a month or 2 but that doesn't mean you adapted to new system at all. You need time to be able to bri g everything together and bring every small detail from system in your game...

 

[Evilhomer]

Assuming Winnipeg comes back down to Earth a bit, it will be between Berube and Arniel for coach of the year.

 

[Its not your fault]

I agree the fans have done their job......I at least witnessed their last cup

I witnessed teams win mulitple rounds years after years and they never won the cup. With the cap etc wining 2 or 3 rounds guarantees nothing the following year.

The days of thinking teams building confidence from winning a few rounds as a stepping stone are over. There is way too many other variables that have more effect in playoff success then building off previous series wins in previous playoffs .

Leafs are a quiet arena.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856001924102762785

 

[Dough72]

was hoping the idea was to get our stars to stop trying to control the game and just embrace some chaos. Like you find in the playoffs. Thought that was what the talk of north-south and faster shots was about. So far I haven't really seen much difference though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856001924102762785

I don't know how that's true because we were 12-4 in Keefe's first 16 games.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I don't know how that's true because we were 12-4 in Keefe's first 16 games.

LEAFS NOTES: First place in sight, but no time for complacency with schedule toughening

Another back-to-back, games vs. McDavid and Ovechkin and injuries leave Toronto little time to congratulate itself on recent streak.

torontosun.com

The Leafs trail the Panthers by three points, though were this the Original Six NHL, they would be high on themselves for beating Boston, Detroit and Montreal on this week’s streak — part of a 9-5-2 start with new coach Craig Berube.



That matches the 1992-93 Leafs under Pat Burns for best start of a full season by a new bench boss over the past 30 years.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are 11th. for points % today.

In the top 3rd. of the league. Just.

They are going to have to address their ineffectual players.

Preseason stats don't mean much when facing NHL players in game condition.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Leafs are 11th. for points % today.

In the top 3rd. of the league. Just.

They are going to have to address their ineffectual players.

Preseason stats don't mean much when facing NHL players in game condition.

I am satisfied with the leafs regular season perforance (reg season is pointless anyways)
wake me up when it is playoff time

 

[ULF_55]

I am satisfied with the leafs regular season perforance (reg season is pointless anyways)
wake me up when it is playoff time

home ice would be good.

 

[HockeyVirus]

home ice would be good.

Home ice, away ice it never matters it seems. Either they are good enough or they aren't

 

[Da Mash]

You are playing with fire if you think regular season doesn’t mean much.
Most contending cup teams have really good regular seasons. Yes sometimes a team here and there squeak in and ride a hot goalie and big goons and succeed in playoffs because the rules change but that is rare.

We better shore up our scoring especially in our bottom six.
I’m pretty confident in our D as long as they are healthy and our goaltending thankfully is very solid.

Finishing in the middle of the pack and losing home ice is just another hurdle the team has to overcome in the playoffs