Confirmed with Link: Craig Berube named the 32nd Coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs

[weems]

I'm gonna guess he had his panties in a bunch over a small sample size if you criticized the record on those years.

This year though? Who cares.

It would be that our record is actually quite impressive when you factor in the major underperformance of the powerplay but how noone should take it seriously because it's such a small sample size and it's bound to normalize.

There would be tons of talk about how the underlying numbers look very good and we've just been unlucky.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm gonna guess he had his panties in a bunch over a small sample size if you criticized the record on those years.
This year though? Who cares.

It would be that our record is actually quite impressive when you factor in the major underperformance of the powerplay but how noone should take it seriously because it's such a small sample size and it's bound to normalize. There would be tons of talk about how the underlying numbers look very good and we've just been unlucky.

The only ones changing their positions here are you.

You went from using outcomes in small samples to make broad conclusions, blame the coach and GM, and predict doom and failure, to now dismissing outcomes because they're small samples, praising the coach and GM, and predicting we improve as the sample grows, by pointing to underlying metrics and luck.

I went from acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics, to acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics.

I was just pointing out that comparing the entirety of Berube's tenure to a small outlier sample of Keefe's tenure is not a great comparison, and the conclusion that the individual drew from that didn't fit the facts of the bigger sample. Perhaps we should wait for the bigger sample from Berube before making proclamations and acting like Berube leading us to a 7-5-2 record in the regular season is some great success.

Our underlying metrics are a bit better than last year so far, and that's good, but they are still 4th best of the last 5 years, which isn't so good. And while we have indeed been a bit unlucky so far, the 1.61% lower that our GF% is than our xGF% has been a bit exaggerated. Our results have underperformed our underlying metrics on the PP so far, but our results have overperformed our underlying metrics 5v5.

 

[Da Mash]

The fans have done their job for the last nearly 60 years. It is time that ownership and their franchise do the same. I trust that Berube is demanding the same.

Lift the damn Cup. The year after, no fan will even care if Leafs finish at the bottom, score 400 goals while giving up 405. In any current year though, play the game right and sacrifice everything to win.

I agree the fans have done their job......I at least witnessed their last cup

I witnessed teams win mulitple rounds years after years and they never won the cup. With the cap etc wining 2 or 3 rounds guarantees nothing the following year.

The days of thinking teams building confidence from winning a few rounds as a stepping stone are over. There is way too many other variables that have more effect in playoff success then building off previous series wins in previous playoffs .

 

[weems]

The only ones changing their positions here are you.

You went from using outcomes in small samples to make broad conclusions, blame the coach and GM, and predict doom and failure, to now dismissing outcomes because they're small samples, praising the coach and GM, and predicting we improve as the sample grows, by pointing to underlying metrics and luck.

I went from acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics, to acknowledging the small samples, avoiding making broad conclusions, avoiding blaming the coach and GM, predicting improvement as the sample grows, and looking at underlying metrics.

I was just pointing out that comparing the entirety of Berube's tenure to a small outlier sample of Keefe's tenure is not a great comparison, and the conclusion that the individual drew from that didn't fit the facts of the bigger sample. Perhaps we should wait for the bigger sample from Berube before making proclamations and acting like Berube leading us to a 7-5-2 record in the regular season is some great success.

Our underlying metrics are a bit better than last year so far, and that's good, but they are still 4th best of the last 5 years, which isn't so good. And while we have indeed been a bit unlucky so far, the 1.61% lower that our GF% is than our xGF% has been a bit exaggerated. Our results have underperformed our underlying metrics on the PP so far, but our results have overperformed our underlying metrics 5v5.

I wasn't always negative towards Dubas though.
It actually went something like, I innitially thought he did a good job, then became skeptical, then praised him at points during the 22/23 but by the end thought we needed to make a change. It feels like there is an obvious negativity towards anything Treliving/Berube related where just a short time ago, this start would have been held in a much more positive frame than currently.

I haven't said our current record under Berube is some great success, just that our PP has literally been one of the worst in the league thru 12 games at actually producing real goals and that has badly cost us point's wise.

 

[BertCorbeau]

As expected there have been notable ups and downs adjusting to the new coach but you can see the style differences. I'd say there have been more positives with how they've played at times then negatives. It's well suited for playoff hockey. Additionally, their underlying numbers are quite strong which lends hope that they'll start going on more winning streaks.

Better special teams probably wins them an extra 2-3 games. If they were 9-3-2 we'd probably be pretty excited around here.

The PP just can't be that bad for this long and hopefully the Boston game is the turning point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wasn't always negative towards Dubas though. It actually went something like, I innitially thought he did a good job, then became skeptical, then praised him at points during the 22/23 but by the end thought we needed to make a change. It feels like there is an obvious negativity towards anything Treliving/Berube related where just a short time ago, this start would have been held in a much more positive frame than currently.

I've credited Treliving and Berube for stuff, and criticized Dubas and Keefe for stuff. I was actually in favour of moving on from Keefe, and have blasted both coaches equally for things like playing Reaves. My positions and approach on things have remained the exact same, and I haven't framed the stat in any way. If you see framing, it is because the majority of the board has 180'd on everything they used to argue, which makes the voice of reason take a different form.

I care about the facts, so when the board is irrationally negative, positive reality checks are more often required (and I continue that in areas where people remain negative). When the board is irrationally positive (especially in order to be irrationally negative about the predecessor), a reality check about how things compare is required. Some interpret that as being negative, even though I'm probably more optimistic about our chances of winning than the majority of this board. It just doesn't mean I stop calling it like it is.

We should also remember that during poor starts in past years, we had a significant sample under Keefe with good results that we were adding onto, whereas this is all we have for Berube. I'd personally like to wait for good results before I start praising him. I think it's pretty hypocritical of people to praise results for this coach/GM if they criticized the exact same results previously, even when there were better underlying metrics.

I haven't said our current record under Berube is some great success, just that our PP has literally been one of the worst in the league thru 12 games at actually producing real goals and that has badly cost us point's wise.

Our PP has struggled converting (especially prior to last game), but we're currently only 1.36 goals below expected on the PP. Part of the reason our PP goals have gone down this year is that our PP shot and chance generation has also gotten worse. While that is not all Berube's fault, and yes it is early and a small sample, he has messed around with combinations quite a bit this year, and we're not getting great results out of that so far - surface or underlying.