McKenzie: Coyotes offering OEL 8 x 8.25 contract

[elitepete]

OEl could get north of 10 mill in the open market over 7 years. 1 extra year isn’t worth 2 mill less per year.

I would ask for 9 minimum if I were him, and that’s still a good contract for the Coyotes.

 

[rt]

I think he either signs in summer or is dealt. Maybe at the draft.

That'll be a little difficult since he cant sign until July 1, but the draft is before that.

Migi was right on the money:
NHL combine is last chance for Coyotes to evaluate draft prospects

— Chayka was asked if the Coyotes would need to consider alternatives, including a trade, if they can’t agree to a contract extension with defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson before the NHL Draft.
“We want to put this organization in the best possible situation long-term,” Chayka said. “We want Oliver to be a big part of that. He’s a big rock in this whole building process. To have an indication of where he stands prior to the draft is, I think, important to being able to move forward and being able to build this team out.”

OEL can't officially sign before the draft, but if he doesn't agree in principal, he's going to get traded at the draft.

 

[IPreferPi]

The offer in $$ is low compared to what he could get as a UFA in a year. This is the only time in an NHL players career that he has all the leverage. E Kane getting 7 makes OEL easily worth 9+ as a UFA. I think AZ will come up in dollars closer to 9 mill to sign him.

I think if OEL signs the AAV will be between 8.25-8.5M. Not closer to 9M.

 

[Blackhawk93]

Carlson is getting 9 then, crazy market for dmen

 

[rt]

OEl could get north of 10 mill in the open market over 7 years. 1 extra year isn’t worth 2 mill less per year.

I would ask for 9 minimum if I were him, and that’s still a good contract for the Coyotes.

Arizona has one of the lowest cost-of-living and tax rate combinations of any NHL market. 8.25 in Arizona and 9.25 elsewhere is pretty comparable. Unless a team in Florida or Texas is going to offer him mega bucks, you can't just look at this in terms of take whatever deal has the most dollars in it. There are other considerations to think about, concerning how much he gets to keep of that money, and how far that money goes where he lives.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Lol, Kane just pulled 7 x 7, OEL is worth 10 open market, Arizona is low balling.

Not for nothing but cost of living is much much lower in Arizona than in Silicon Valley.

 

[IPreferPi]

Not for nothing but cost of living is much much lower in Arizona than in Silicon Valley.

OT: there are not "too many secrets" in your username (love the reference!).

 

[rt]

Not for nothing but cost of living is much much lower in Arizona than in Silicon Valley.

Paying taxes in California is probably a little more painful than paying taxes in Arizona, too.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think he'll get a little more

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Lol, Kane just pulled 7 x 7, OEL is worth 10 open market, Arizona is low balling.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[connormcmuffin]

Two wrongs don't make a right.

Yeah that how markets work, they are about fairness and correction...

 

[Peter Griffin]

Good deal for both sides.

 

[DougGilmour93]

I suspect he’d rather be dealt and sign that deal with some other team.

 

[hockeyguy1967]

Isn't immediate, but "said to be sitting on an offer" if he wants a commitment.

Can sign on July 1st.

From insider trading:
https://www.tsn.ca/video/insider-trading-all-eyes-on-tavares-a-month-out-from-free-agency~1408427

Welp no other team is going to offer that plus the assets it would take to acquire him so he might as well sign it.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Fair deal. The same total value over 7 years (ufa max term) is about 9.4 AAV.

 

[mouser]

I think if OEL signs the AAV will be between 8.25-8.5M. Not closer to 9M.

I’m expecting $9-$9.5m, we’ll see.

 

[RABBIT]

I suspect he’d rather be dealt and sign that deal with some other team.

why? He loves Arizona

 

[firstemperor]

I think if OEL signs the AAV will be between 8.25-8.5M. Not closer to 9M.

Evander Kane just got 7X7. Think your being a bit naive, unless OEL gives a hometown discount, which is certainly plausible.

Paying taxes in California is probably a little more painful than paying taxes in Arizona, too.

Certainly an interesting debate, obviously QoL and cost of living comes into play as well but I started seeing the notion a bit differently, perhaps not the caliber of profile a player like OEL is- but for other sport superstars. There's far more investment potential in California, for one, particularly if your looking to invest into the tech-industry. It's generally unfeasible to be as hands-on, if your an athlete that isn't living there closer to year-round.

 

[MagicalRazor]

I COULD see him getting 9-9.5 MILLION as a UFA , Caps going up 5 million as of right now so for a team to throw an extra 750.1.25M wouldn't be wild i can't see him staying with the yotes . hes aging hes gonna wanna run for a cup soon and Alot of team could offer him that .

 

[RABBIT]

Evander Kane just got 7X7. Think your being a bit naive, unless OEL gives a hometown discount, which is certainly plausible.

Not busting your balls or anything but everybody keeps bringing up that Kane contract as if Doug Wilson just set the market for every player on every team. Guarantee at least 28 out of 31 GM's agree that's not a good contract. It would have to be more universally accepted for player agents to have a serious play here. It would also help if Kane was the biggest name on the FA market, which he's not. I don't think that contract hold much water in separate negotiations around the league.

 

[firstemperor]

Not busting your balls or anything but everybody keeps bringing up that Kane contract as if Doug Wilson just set the market for every player on every team. Guarantee at least 28 out of 31 GM's agree that's not a good contract. It would have to be more universally accepted for player agents to have a serious play here. It would also help if Kane was the biggest name on the FA market, which he's not. I don't think that contract hold much water in separate negotiations around the league.

That's also a very valid and fair point I may have seemingly overlooked (but I did consider). My intention was not to overglorify a straw man (Hall-Larsson is a notorious one on here), just to provide some notion of recency (Kane was the last profile UFA extended). Still, I do genuinely think 8-8.25m AAV, while certainly plausible, would (as of OEL's current stock) have to include an interplay of him providing some degree of a home-town discount. Now, the reasonable expectation may be that players do provide this, in general, if they resign with their teams before hitting the open market- which is also fair.

With a ~8m AAV contract though, I do geniuinely think he's providing a significant hometown discount- relative to his UFA worth, to the tune of ~1.5-2 million AAV per year, over a significant amount of term.

 

[SR]

Only way he doesn’t sign is the threat looming of relocation (Houston) and the likelyhood of no new arena.

Guy loves AZ, doesn’t enjoy the lime light and has made a home here. He will make a decision in the coming days giving Chyka time to plan if he doesn’t sign.

 

[wintersej]

Paying taxes in California is probably a little more painful than paying taxes in Arizona, too.

And living in California is way better than living in Arizona. The whole state taxes thing as a primary driver for these choices cracks me up. You would think low tax states would have all the banners hanging from the rafters in every sport by peoples thought processes here. Weird that it’s the high tax states in most of the sports that have most of the most hardware. These post Reagan theories on taxes in the American populist drive me nuts.

 

[Gravity]

OEl could get north of 10 mill in the open market over 7 years. 1 extra year isn’t worth 2 mill less per year.

I would ask for 9 minimum if I were him, and that’s still a good contract for the Coyotes.

On the open market yes. Subban has a 9mil contract is better than OEL has been involved in trade rumors consistently because of his contract.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

That's really not that bad a number to try and get this done now. Especially with it buying all UFA years and going until he is 35 yrs old. That could potentially be the last NHL contract he signs. Or at least the last big one.

Plus, Doughty and Karlsson are both coming due for new deals.

Either one, or both, could possibly significantly increase the pay level for franchise top pair defenseman.

If i were OEL, I'd probably want to wait for one of them to sign first.