Speculation: Coyotes 2021 Offseason Roster Discussion Thread #2

[RABBIT]

This is a bit off the present discussion but regarding the Coyotes this coming season, does Pederson have enough game for the NHL?

probably depends on how much we gut our team

 

[XX]

This is a bit off the present discussion but regarding the Coyotes this coming season, does Pederson have enough game for the NHL?

Didn't see it in his games he played this year. Just slow with his reads/reactions and hands by NHL standards.

 

[RABBIT]

I have a weird feeling we are not going to be able to offload OEL this summer. I have a feeling teams are going to be asking for significant retention, or an asset to be going the other way and I don’t think Bill Armstrong does that just for cap space. Hopefully Boston or Vancouver get hungry enough, or maybe a dark horse team comes out of left field. McDavid once had high praise for OEL, saying he had the best poke check in the west. Maybe Tippett and McDavid can persuade Holland to do what it takes to acquire him.

 

[rt]

I have a weird feeling we are not going to be able to offload OEL this summer. I have a feeling teams are going to be asking for significant retention, or an asset to be going the other way and I don’t think Bill Armstrong does that just for cap space. Hopefully Boston or Vancouver get hungry enough, or maybe a dark horse team comes out of left field. McDavid once had high praise for OEL, saying he had the best poke check in the west. Maybe Tippett and McDavid can persuade Holland to do what it takes to acquire him.

I truly don’t believe Arizona will retain any amount on OEL. If that means they can’t move him, they won’t move him. I also can’t see BA sacrificing any further draft capital just to dump OEL. So if somebody wants picks attached, I can’t see it happening. They’ll keep him.

But I think there are deals where combinations of shorter, cheaper contracts are tossed together in a deal balance the cap for the first year or two or three.

There are GMs that are worried only about the next 1-3 years either because of a closing window for their core (Sweeney, Fletcher) or a closing noose around their neck (Treliving, Benning) or pressure from gross underachievement (Holland, Sakic).

And BA is a GM who’s not at all concerned about the next one or two or three seasons. It’s all about years three, four, five and six.

So it seems to me that a GM focused on the immediate future should be able to find something palatable when working with BA who’s only concentrating on the longer term.

Vancouver is the perfect partner. Benning has likely got the shortest leash in the entire NHL, is in a pressure cooker market, and has a bunch of bad contracts that are his fault, that he needs to dump. A deal where he stacks several bad contracts (Myers, Eriksson, Roussel, Beagle, Ferland, etc) up high enough where he actually gets some short term cap relief on OEL should be extremely appealing to him.

 

[SR]

Hoping for a Tampa win tonight so we can get this mess of a cup finals over with and teams can start constructing for the new season.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

What is our young Russian netminder's ceiling? Does he project out to be a primo 1? If so I would build from the defense out. If he's projected to be fair to middlin' I'd be inclined to build from C down. I'm past the point of lamenting about boring Coyotes hockey. I want to see a consistent winner, even if it means watching the 2nd coming of a boring Tippett team.

 

[RemoAZ]

FA list to get the offseason juices flowing:
NHL free agency 2021: Complete list of all 31 teams' UFA, RFA players (msn.com)

 

[Mangosteen]

What is our young Russian netminder's ceiling? Does he project out to be a primo 1? If so I would build from the defence out. If he's projected to be fair to middlin' I'd be inclined to build from C down. I'm past the point of lamenting about boring Coyotes hockey. I want to see a consistent winner, even if it means watching the 2nd coming of a boring Tippett team.

Winning more important than being entertained? I try to rewatch the old Devil games and just can't. Snooooore

But this is what BA keeps hinting at. I think he said it's a game of the other team's mistakes or something like that.

 

[SR]

I think Prov is going to be an excellent goalie. Or atleast he’s projected to be really good. I like him. Let’s keep him around.

 

[Jakey53]

Winning more important than being entertained? I try to rewatch the old Devil games and just can't. Snooooore

But this is what BA keeps hinting at. I think he said it's a game of the other team's mistakes or something like that.

WINNING is all that matters. WINNING IS ENTERTAINMENT. EVERY GM, coach, player and organization strive for the SC. Nothing else matters. NOTHING.

 

[rt]

I think Prov is going to be an excellent goalie. Or atleast he’s projected to be really good. I like him. Let’s keep him around.

I learned from Dustin Tokarski that I have just absolutely no idea how to scout goalies or project their future. Hell, there are guys in the league that I watch, and think are good, but the numbers and results just don't support it. Laurent Brossoit comes to mind.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Pretty much everyone capable of being objective recognizes how awful OEL has been the last three years.

This is my favourite quote of the offseason In other words..

Anyone capable of being objective agrees with me and any other opinion is wrongly subjective.

 

[rt]

This is my favourite quote of the offseason In other words..

Anyone capable of being objective agrees with me and any other opinion is wrongly subjective.

I think objectivity in this case means metrics concerning in-game events such as shots, attempts, chances, high-danger, quality of competition, zone starts, entries, exits, etc. I think what he meant was that counting stats show he's declined, but more advanced metrics also support this. Numbers being objective, rather than XX the poster. I'm speaking for him now, though. And I'm obviously not him. So I'm just guessing.

 

[Mangosteen]

WINNING is all that matters. WINNING IS ENTERTAINMENT. EVERY GM, coach, player and organization strive for the SC. Nothing else matters. NOTHING.

So if we only manage 18 shots a game and get outshot 30 -18. Opposition shots just low percentage outside but we win you will be happy? Devils trap hockey was effective just sooo dam boring to watch

 

[cobra427]

This is my favourite quote of the offseason In other words..

Anyone capable of being objective agrees with me and any other opinion is wrongly subjective.

Advanced stats should confirm what you see, not tell you what you are seeing. There is no doubt OEL has declined, he isn't a top 10D, but he is still top 30-40. Those stats don't take into account the awful D partners he has had the last few years either.

 

[XX]

I learned from Dustin Tokarski that I have just absolutely no idea how to scout goalies or project their future. Hell, there are guys in the league that I watch, and think are good, but the numbers and results just don't support it. Laurent Brossoit comes to mind.

Brossoit is very average overall. The problem is inconsistency. GSAA per 60 he was 2nd in the league 18-19, just ahead of Raanta and behind Peterson. A year later, he wasn't in the top 25 and had an .895 overall save percentage. He is also paired with the best starter in hockey over the last few years, so him being so vanilla really stands out.

Of the likely to be cheap FA goalies, he's easily my pick to platoon with Hill if Kuemper goes elsewhere.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

This is my favourite quote of the offseason In other words..

Anyone capable of being objective agrees with me and any other opinion is wrongly subjective.

He's not wrong from a numbers perspective, OEL has shown a decline in the eye test as well.

Where I lose the same enthusiasm that some other posters have against OEL is around coaching. RT was the head coach here for 4 years. OEL has had ~3 poor to below expectation years. He's been rumored to have had a poor relationship with RT as well. I think having a new coach will go a long way in bringing back the old OEL that we all loved and didn't hate the contract of.

Speaking on contracts, OEL's is awful. We all knew it was coming but it turned out so much worse. Take ~$2m off his AAV and he's paid significantly closer to his performance. That $2m is also an upgrade at forward and may be the difference between a few more wins than losses. If OEL were at $5.5m, every single one of us would be looking for a premium return.

---

@rt I would think retaining 10%-20% on OEL would put him more in line with what teams would be willing to pay for a player like him. BA might not do it but I would for the right return.

OEL (15% = 7.0125); 6 years of ~$1m AAV and a few years where we pay over $2m in cash is not that big a deal if we get a return that advances our future.

Bold = Who I'm targeting.

OEL (15%) for Gost + Myers + 2nd + Allison
OEL (15%) for DeBrusk + Moore + Lauzon + Lauko
OEL (15%) for Eriksson + Virtanen + Gadjovich + Lind
OEL (15%) for Drouin + Poehling + 2nd + Brook
OEL (15%) for Johnson + Compher + Ranta + Timmins (Assuming Timmins is being pushed down the depth chart)
OEL (15%) for Pettersson + Zucker + Gruden
OEL (15%) for Little + Gustafsson + Appleton

That's the kind of blueprint I would look at. If we can't get something in these ranges, I'd keep him.

 

[rt]

Brossoit is very average overall. The problem is inconsistency. GSAA per 60 he was 2nd in the league 18-19, just ahead of Raanta and behind Peterson. A year later, he wasn't in the top 25 and had an .895 overall save percentage. He is also paired with the best starter in hockey over the last few years, so him being so vanilla really stands out.

Of the likely to be cheap FA goalies, he's easily my pick to platoon with Hill if Kuemper goes elsewhere.

I think we need to trade for him, sign him, and expose him to Seattle. Then we can platoon him with Hill. But we gotta protect Hill first.

 

[Jakey53]

So if we only manage 18 shots a game and get outshot 30 -18. Opposition shots just low percentage outside but we win you will be happy? Devils trap hockey was effective just sooo dam boring to watch

You bet. But you are exaggerating a bit. I loved watching Scott Stevens and Niedermayer. They were not boring.

 

[Mangosteen]

I know I am exaggerating but I would rather lose 3 to 4 than win 1 to 0. It's just a personal preference. I did enjoy Niedermayer but Stevens and Claude Lemieux leave a bit of vomit in my throat.

 

[rt]

I care about having a strong identity, executing well, and getting the wins. Whether that’s high flying dipsey doodle or grind them into dust, I don’t really care. The wins are all that matter to me.

But if we’re going to lose, I only want to do that one way. The punch you in the throat way. Make it so beating the Coyotes is absolutely miserable.

If the plan is to take a step back and re-stock the cupboards, I want to let the kids develop in Tucson and fill Glendale with big, nasty bastards who bully every team that beats them.

 

[rt]

For those of you who insist OEL has trade value:

“Trade Degree of Difficulty

Burnside: 8 — Lots of moving parts that will make facilitating a trade very difficult. First, Ekman-Larsson’s contract carries an $8.25 million cap hit through 2026-27. Also, he’s owed $10.5 million in real dollars for the next three seasons. His actual salary goes down to $5.25 million in the final two years of the deal but no matter how you slice it that’s a lot of weight to move when it comes to actual dollars. Then there’s his declining level of play. Finally, the no-move clause means that even if Ekman-Larsson is open to moving he still holds all the cards when it comes to finding a new home for the veteran defender who was the No. 6 pick in 2009.

Drance: 10 — The difficulty of making this deal has been ramped up by Ekman-Larsson’s struggles last season, in stark contrast with the rise of his teammate Jakob Chychrun. Now Ekman-Larsson is seen around the league as a player you’re gambling on to bounce back, a big bet to place considering his contract represents a $40 million salary liability over the life of the deal. It isn’t just that Ekman-Larsson’s performance makes this deal more complicated this summer. Honestly, it’s difficult to escape the impression that the Coyotes missed the boat here as they paid Ekman-Larsson a $4 million signing bonus last offseason and still couldn’t get a deal done. This is a trade that was probably a 7 last season even with a shorter list of teams that Ekman-Larsson was willing to be dealt to, as opposed to what it is now a full 10 in my opinion.

Possible Destinations

Burnside: Boston was interested as they’d like a top-four left-hand shot defender and may remain so assuming Arizona eats as much as half of the outstanding monies owed. Our pal Craig Morgan wondered aloud at a possible fit in Edmonton where Ekman-Larsson could reunite with former coach Dave Tippett. If the Oilers move on from Tyson Barrie (who is a right-hand shot pending UFA) maybe there’s a way to make that work especially if the Coyotes not only eat some of Ekman-Larsson’s salary but took on one of the Oilers’ onerous deals like James Neal. In recent days the Oilers have been linked to veteran Chicago defender Duncan Keith so lots of moving parts to the Oilers option. The reality is that unless a team believes wholeheartedly that Ekman-Larsson can return to being an elite defender with the confidence to make plays, contribute to the power play and log big minutes, the contract makes acquiring Ekman-Larsson an enormous risk.

Drance: Edmonton makes a ton of sense. I can’t really see Boston as a fit, unless the Coyotes retain a ton of money. The Bruins’ need on the left side is obvious, but they’re going to have better options and the cap flexibility to pounce on them. Perhaps Vancouver could revisit things too if the Coyotes lowered their demands significantly from the last time out and also took some of Vancouver’s bad money back. The club still likes the player, even if there was some frustration on both sides with how the non-deal played out.

What Needs To Come Back?

Burnside: This isn’t an assets trade. The Coyotes recently hired highly regarded junior and international coach Andre Tourigny as their new head coach, signaling a trend to a more youthful Coyotes roster. So, whatever cap space is created by moving Ekman-Larsson is the key here. Even if Arizona has to take on another unhealthy contract or toss in a late-round pick or mid-range prospect this is all about short-term pain for long-term gain as GM Bill Armstrong tries to chart a course back to respectability for the beleaguered franchise.
Drance: Scott is dead on, but this is too bad for Arizona because the Coyotes were asking for a ton last season and missed a relatively unique opportunity to offload this contract. Now, just nine months later, we’re all in agreement that any Ekman-Larsson trade will solely return cap space? Tough place for the Coyotes and their second-year general manager to be in.

End Result

Burnside: Coyotes — As one longtime scout familiar with the Coyotes put it, Ekman-Larsson simply isn’t an elite defender anymore. “You can’t take this guy with that kind of load,” he said referencing Ekman-Larsson’s contract. Best case scenario seems to be that Ekman-Larsson is rejuvenated with a new coaching staff in Arizona and the team can return to a possible trade next offseason when the cost and the hence the exposure for another team declines at least some.

Drance: Coyotes — The flat cap just makes it so difficult to solve big money, big cap space problems like this one for Arizona. There just isn’t enough flexibility in the system to lubricate this kind of trade. Unless Arizona accepts that they’ll be taking some inefficient short-term money back in any deal, eating some salary in retention in the deal and getting little of hockey value back, there’s no chance this deal happens. At this juncture, it will take a salary cap Houdini quality escape for the Coyotes to move this deal.”

Is this the NHL’s summer of the blockbuster? Here are 5 stars who could be traded
Is this the NHL's summer of the blockbuster? Here are 5 stars who could be traded

 

[Canis Latrans]

Winning more important than being entertained? I try to rewatch the old Devil games and just can't. Snooooore

But this is what BA keeps hinting at. I think he said it's a game of the other team's mistakes or something like that.

Regarding mistakes, I don't think he necessarily means it in a passive way. You can actively force turnovers through an aggressive forecheck where you're hounding the opponents and giving them little time to make decisions and execute. Look at Tampa Bay and how they create these turnovers in the neutral zone or on denying entry into their zone and how they turn it around into a scoring chance. You prevent the opponents from getting set in their defense and that's where further mistakes occur because it's less scripted and formulaic. Guys have to make decisions on what's the least bad way for me to defend this awful situation I've been put in.

 

[Canis Latrans]

I learned from Dustin Tokarski that I have just absolutely no idea how to scout goalies or project their future. Hell, there are guys in the league that I watch, and think are good, but the numbers and results just don't support it. Laurent Brossoit comes to mind.

I think the the goalie coach and the team's system play a huge role in this and it's difficult to tease apart the effects of those without more in depth stats, more so than skating positions. Look at Murray with the Penguins or Binnington and the Blues - both stormed into the league to win in their first full seasons, but came down thereafter when their teams dipped.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

For those of you who insist OEL has trade value:


Is this the NHL’s summer of the blockbuster? Here are 5 stars who could be traded
Is this the NHL's summer of the blockbuster? Here are 5 stars who could be traded

Yea that's nothing new, we've been hearing this same thing over and over going back to before last season. OEL just had another stinker under a garbage coach, we see guys get a resurgence under new coaching all the time.

I've been consistent in saying that I believe OEL will rebound, therefor I won't accept low value to get out of the contract and would wait another year before writing him off. OEL's value is at it's lowest, if BA sells at the value being proposed around here, we'll get burnt, badly. That's my opinion, I might be wrong but I feel confident in it.