OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

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I assume you mean or as Kakko is 19 and has diabetes but is still presumably vulnerable to the virus. Anyway, I'm not sure how much it really matters considering 65 is an arbitrary age and a very large proportion of the US is 65+ (about 50 million) or has a significant comorbidity (e.g. about 35 million people have diabetes).

Regardless, based on CDC data for Feb March and April, about 20% of the deaths were of people under 65. Here are some stats.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Age Group[/TD][TD] Total Deaths[/TD][TD]Covid Deaths[/TD][TD]Flu Deaths [/TD][TD]Pneumonia Deaths [/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]
Under 25​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
13,765​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
71​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
131​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
268​
[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]
25-64​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
189,157​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
10,858​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2,014​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
14,643​
[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]
65+​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
632,685​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
43,932​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3,965​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
63,355​
[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Considering that flu and pneumonia typically results in about 40-60k deaths per year (the vast majority of which is pneumonia) one might wonder if there are some issues in how deaths are attributed to pneumonia considering it is about 6 times the number expected in a year.

Thank you for trying to point out that the number of those 65 or older, I agree an arbitrary age, and those with preexisting conditions equates to a large percentage of the US population.

We estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at increased risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. Rates increased by age, from 19.8% for persons 18–29 years of age to 80.7% for persons >80 years of age, and varied by state, race/ethnicity, health insurance status, and employment.

Population-Based Estimates of Chronic Conditions Affecting Risk for Complications from Coronavirus Disease, United States
 
I know the numbers. But just throwing them out there as if they apply straight across the board is not the answer. At least not to me. Of the overall mortality rate, one third of it has resulted in nursing homes (thanks, Cuomo). Further stratified, the great majority of the overall mortality rate has resulted for people who are a) 65 and older and b) have preexisting conditions (this is of any age). If you were to look at the mortality rate of those under 65, you would also see an extremely large percentage of people with the preexisting conditions.

The point being is that yes, this is awful and yes, people are dying. But the biggest danger (death) lies with a certain portion of the population that clearly needs to be protected. Being in NYC, it is impossible not to know people who have not had it. I know more than enough and wish it were different. I believe that there are far more asymptomatic people or people whose symptoms are mild than the other way.
I think what you're missing is that the death rate from covid-19 (at least based on what's posted by the CDC) appears to be a lot worse, that most of those who died of pneumonia really died of covid-19. It's possible that the CDC made an error in their tables since this seems counter to the study based on excess deaths (referred to above) so who knows.

Here's what I mean. The data I posted above (from https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data) shows 54,861 deaths from covid-19, 78,266 deaths from pneumonia and 6,110 deaths from the flu total for Feb 1 - April 30 (or thereabouts). Without the age distribution more recent data (from: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)) shows 67,008 covid-19 deaths, 86,063 pneumonia deaths, 6,207 flu deaths as of May 19. Now there is some overlap and the CDC puts the total number of deaths related to these 3 conditions at 128,847. But only 10-15k of these should be flu/pneumonia related based on past years leaving about 115k deaths. That's 25k more deaths from covid-19 than reported so my expectation is that the number will be revised upwards at some point.

But interesting how you defend Trump to the death but somehow it's all on Cuomo.
 
Thank you for trying to point out that the number of those 65 or older, I agree an arbitrary age, and those with preexisting conditions equates to a large percentage of the US population.
But again, just throwing out pure numbers without any context leads to results that may not be telling the whole story. So, yes, 43 percent of US households have preexisting conditions. But included in that definition are things like acne, sleep apnea, anxiety and depression. None of them are anything that anyone would want, but hardly things that people are talking about when discussing it in the corona virus context. Further, one in three people who are 65 plus have what qualifies as a preexisting condition. And we already know that the virus disproportionately affects those that are 65 and older. As you look at the other age groups, the percentages of those who have a condition that would qualify as such, decrease. Further, one third of adults who have such a condition are also considered to be overweight.

My point is that numbers without context can be misleading. And when it comes to dealing with this awfulness, the numbers point out who are the most at risk and there is where the protection needs to start.
 
My point is that numbers without context can be misleading. And when it comes to dealing with this awfulness, the numbers point out who are the most at risk and there is where the protection needs to start.
How is it misleading? What wrong conclusion can you come to when talking about population statistics? In the US, 25 million have autoimmune diseases and 25 million have COPD and 15 million have asthma.
 
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I think what you're missing is that the death rate from covid-19 (at least based on what's posted by the CDC) appears to be a lot worse, that most of those who died of pneumonia really died of covid-19. It's possible that the CDC made an error in their tables since this seems counter to the study based on excess deaths (referred to above) so who knows.

Here's what I mean. The data I posted above (from https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data) shows 54,861 deaths from covid-19, 78,266 deaths from pneumonia and 6,110 deaths from the flu total for Feb 1 - April 30 (or thereabouts). Without the age distribution more recent data (from: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)) shows 67,008 covid-19 deaths, 86,063 pneumonia deaths, 6,207 flu deaths as of May 19. Now there is some overlap and the CDC puts the total number of deaths related to these 3 conditions at 128,847. But only 10-15k of these should be flu/pneumonia related based on past years leaving about 115k deaths. That's 25k more deaths from covid-19 than reported so my expectation is that the number will be revised upwards at some point.

But interesting how you defend Trump to the death but somehow it's all on Cuomo.
Are you telling me that what happened in New York nursing homes is not on Cuomo's head? Whose fault is it?

And I am missing nothing. I ma not comparing this to the flu or pneumonia. What I am saying is that talking about a mortality rate without context makes it seem like you are taking it and applying it evenly over the entire population. To do that is disingenuous.

Let's also not forget that initially the predictions were that 2 million were going to die.
 
How is it misleading? What wrong conclusion can you come to when talking about population statistics? In the US, 25 million have autoimmune diseases and 65 million have COPD.
Because saying it blankly ignores the fact that the mortality rate heavily skews toward a certain section of the population
 
Because saying it blankly ignores the fact that the mortality rate heavily skews toward a certain section of the population
I don't think anyone ignores the reality that older people are more likely to die from just about every cause (I corrected my numbers above).
 
Let's also not forget that initially the predictions were that 2 million were going to die.
That was not the initial prediction. It was a result of a study by some school in London who projected what could happen if no safeguards were taken.
 
Are you telling me that what happened in New York nursing homes is not on Cuomo's head? Whose fault is it?
Did I say that? It's not an either or situation. All leaders have failed to some degree. Some have failed more miserably than others.
 
We used publicly available 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data (4) from telephone surveys of 444,649 randomly selected adults >18 years of age in the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC). Because the BRFSS includes only noninstitutionalized adults, residents of nursing homes and assisted living facilities are among those not surveyed.

The list of chronic conditions used in our analysis is similar to groups at increased risk for seasonal influenza complications (10), except that the influenza group includes obese adults.

"corona virus context"
 
NYC hospitalizations number went from 2.09 yesterday to 1.80 today so that criteria is now met.

Just about hospital beds and tracers now.
 
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Did I say that? It's not an either or situation. All leaders have failed to some degree. Some have failed more miserably than others.
I would say that directly ordering nursing homes to take Covid recovering patients, alongside not being allowed to ask if they are Covid patients is pretty bad. Of the entire death tool, one third is attributed to what went on in the nursing homes.
 
I don’t disagree one bit. Since early January I’ve been discussing COVID in the BOH and how I thought it was extremely serious. That hasn’t changed.

There is however, a stark difference between a virus with a 3-5% mortality rate and a virus that will likely be .5% mortality rate. As we do inch closer to the latter, I think it is perfectly reasonable to begin to adjust our approach. That is why I went from a “lock everything down” person to a “time to immediately look at reopening in different areas” person.

:dunno:

And my position is open it up but make it mandatory to wear a mask when out in public. If someone wishes to participate in openings, and refuses to wear a mask, it is the ultimate in selfishness and should be illegal during a pandemic.

I can't come up with a more effective strategy than to open up the economy and protect the public at the same time.

Those that won't wear masks while claiming it's an issue of personal freedom are full of it.

It's less of an imposition than lots of other things we as a society already accept.

Taxes, different kinds of required insurance and licenses, etc,.

Your right to swing your fist stops at my face. Your right to to not wear a mask when it will lead to other people dying is the exact same thing.
 
In the US there have been 10.8 million people tested with 1.5 million positive cases. Of the positive cases the fatality rate is 5.95%. This rate has been slowly increasing. We don't know the number of people infected.

i have a family member and his colleagues who had this back in early Nov so you’re right, we have no idea how many people have been infected. Have to think that fatality rate is lower simply b/c many others have been infected. Of course, some of those likely expired.
 
I would say that directly ordering nursing homes to take Covid recovering patients, alongside not being allowed to ask if they are Covid patients is pretty bad. Of the entire death tool, one third is attributed to what went on in the nursing homes.
What is the source for your statistic that a third of all deaths are from NY State nursing homes?
 
What? There was a clear peak. The only thing that backdating could potentially skew is the how steep the declines are.

You can't have it both ways. As it stands right now, the experts were wrong and Kemp is right. Not to mention, chosen's point earlier that viruses typically aren't as prevalent this time of year and into the summer makes it more likely this trend will continue, not reverse.



There is no victory in this. But there is more evidence every day that what Georgia is doing is working. Considering I live in GA, I am grateful that it is.

Have Georgia opened up at all? Saw someone at the main corona board state that it’s still mostly shut down besides a few smaller regions?
 
Have Georgia opened up at all? Saw someone at the main corona board state that it’s still mostly shut down besides a few smaller regions?
No, its pretty much open aside from a few hotspots like Albany. Not sure what they are referencing. I work in Fulton County and we return to work in the second week of June now that our PPE shipments have arrived for all office personnel.

Social distancing guidelines are still in place. Restaurants are operating at limited dine in capacity, gyms are slowly reopening with lengthy new procedures, same for barbershops and hair salons. I got my hair cut two weeks ago and was required to wear a mask. Additionally, I think it was a max of 4 or 6 people inside at once. Essentially one barber/stylist to one customer and no waiting inside the place. If you're early, wait in your car.

People are a lot happier than they were 3 weeks ago. Time will tell if things continue the way they are but right now we are making progress and I think for this state, it works.
 
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What is open in NYC now? Can you visit a restaurant? Can an office be open?

Restaurants are only doing takeout.

If NYC meets the hospital beds and tracers requirements then construction and manufacturing can begin. Two weeks after that office workers can go back.
 
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Damn, I saw that nationwide we have 1.5 million confirmed.

And I think the nation testing rate is still around 2-3%.

So that means, what, maybe 75,000,000 Americans have contracted this? Nothing to say at this point except I hope the immunity is long!
 
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