OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[Gardner McKay]

Cuomo and BDB have been doing mediocre/bad outside of their pressers for the last few weeks but go off about this being Democrat vs Republican driven.

BDB has never done good. Ever. I feel like if there was a mayor with even a shred of competence, NY wouldn't have been nearly as bad as it was. I think Cuomo has had to overcompensate for the idiocy of the NYC mayor. So yeah I guess we would disagree there too.

When this is all said and done and we realize that the mortality rate is no where near as bad as we thought it was (which the evidence is beginning to point to), I think history will be kind to the state and local leaders that sooner than later, began a phased reopening. This is coming from someone who was 100% in agreement with the shut down and was critical of states early on that didn't go far enough.

 

[Irishguy42]

In lighter news: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-first-results/

 

[eco's bones]

The Atlanta Journal Constitution--Atlanta's only major newspaper has some major concerns about the data they're getting from the Georgia state govt. on Covid-19:

‘It’s just cuckoo’: state’s latest data mishap causes critics to cry foul

 

[JimmyG89]

NYC getting very close on all the metrics for reopening. 2.09 for new hospitalizations today, just need to get under 2. That number has been plummeting rapidly, I wouldn't be surprised if it's under 2 by the end of this week. Right there in terms of ICU beds as well. Depending on whether the tracers are up and running NYC should have met all criteria for phase 1 by May 28th.

Regional Monitoring Dashboard

This is great news.

Knowing who is setting up the tracers, I'd put decent money down that they won't be in place by then

 

[UnSandvich]

FC Seoul Apologizes for Sex Dolls Appearing in Place of Fans amid COVID-19

 

[chosen]

What? There was a clear peak. The only thing that backdating could potentially skew is the how steep the declines are.

You can't have it both ways. As it stands right now, the experts were wrong and Kemp is right. Not to mention, chosen's point earlier that viruses typically aren't as prevalent this time of year and into the summer makes it more likely this trend will continue, not reverse.



There is no victory in this. But there is more evidence every day that what Georgia is doing is working. Considering I live in GA, I am grateful that it is.

I don't think there is near enough time nor data to say what Georgia is doing is working. I don't live there but I hope you turn out to be right.

 

[ponytrekker]

Damn. My band needs a new Bass player. Screw @Machinehead

We have multiple bass players here?

 

[ponytrekker]

I don't think anyone will let you on a plane if you have the virus and at the least they're probably going to check your temperature on departure. Depending on what country you're leaving from (and it might be most places) they might even have you take a test. I'd make sure I had some contact information with the US embassy just in case of emergency. This is all guessing on my part but someone with the virus could potentially infect a good % of those on the plane.

Every country I’ve visited in 2019 (quite a few) took your temperature when deplaning.

 

[LORDE]

Trump is sick of watching 10 year old golf tournaments where he knows who won already.

 

[sbjnyc]

My sports fix for the day.



I see this was edited. A certain slomo replay of the fish eater was removed. I suppose even overweight penguins deserve some dignity.

 

[will1066]

Invest in bumper tables

 

[chosen]

When this is all said and done and we realize that the mortality rate is no where near as bad as we thought it was ...

The mortality rate is less than some said, but the rate of being infected is at very least, the most volatile infectious disease in 100 years. If 300 million get infected and 1 million die, it's pretty serious stuff, no matter the mortality rate.

 

[Gardner McKay]

The mortality rate is less than some said, but the rate of being infected is at very least, the most volatile infectious disease in 100 years. If 300 million get infected and 1 million die, it's pretty serious stuff, no matter the mortality rate.

I don’t disagree one bit. Since early January I’ve been discussing COVID in the BOH and how I thought it was extremely serious. That hasn’t changed.

There is however, a stark difference between a virus with a 3-5% mortality rate and a virus that will likely be .5% mortality rate. As we do inch closer to the latter, I think it is perfectly reasonable to begin to adjust our approach. That is why I went from a “lock everything down” person to a “time to immediately look at reopening in different areas” person.

 

[sbjnyc]

I don’t disagree one bit. Since early January I’ve been discussing COVID in the BOH and how I thought it was extremely serious. That hasn’t changed.

There is however, a stark difference between a virus with a 3-5% mortality rate and a virus that will likely be .5% mortality rate. As we do inch closer to the latter, I think it is perfectly reasonable to begin to adjust our approach. That is why I went from a “lock everything down” person to a “time to immediately look at reopening in different areas” person.

In the US there have been 10.8 million people tested with 1.5 million positive cases. Of the positive cases the fatality rate is 5.95%. This rate has been slowly increasing. We don't know the number of people infected. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5% as you suspect then there should be maybe 15-20 million people who were (or are) infected that haven't been tested. I haven't been able to find a number for people who tested for antibodies.

 

[Gardner McKay]

In the US there have been 10.8 million people tested with 1.5 million positive cases. Of the positive cases the fatality rate is 5.95%. This rate has been slowly increasing. We don't know the number of people infected. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5% as you suspect then there should be maybe 15-20 million people who were (or are) infected that haven't been tested. I haven't been able to find a number for people who tested for antibodies.

I posted below what I am basing it on. There was a USC study from 4/20 and then a follow up study was published yesterday and I have posted both below. Granted, it is a study of LA county only but they have 10 million+ people living there. They estimate 4.65% (margin of error puts the range at 2.5% to 7%) of adults have already contracted COVID-19 based on antibody testing.

Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released - Press Room

Coronavirus infections more widespread than expected in L.A. County

 

[sbjnyc]

I don't think you can generalize antibody exposure in LA county to the rest of the population. But let's suppose it's correct that 4.65% of the adult population was infected. As a rough estimate, that's about 10 million infections total for an infection fatality rate of nearly 1%.

 

[True Blue]

But I can't help but feel that this isn't really about Georgia. It is more about the letter next to the governors name which is getting to be really old and disappointing.

Unfortunately, I happen to agree. I could be completely wrong, but this really does largely seem to be breaking down along party lines. Liberal vs. Conservative. Right down to how you see Georgia being covered. The left seems to be vested in saying "No, Georgia did not get it right. The bodies will still litter the street. They lied about the numbers all along". Meanwhile the right seems to be saying "Look at the Georgia example. It is working. Open up the country".

Part of this of course is the pure hatred of Trump. If Trump says left, the left will say right. Part of this is also what kind of person identifies himself as a liberal (bigger government, more restriction/regulation, don't worry about money as the government will just give you another check) vs. one who identifies as a conservative (smaller government, more freedom, cannot simply keep printing money).

This is not for all or may even be wrong. Just what I am largely seeing in people and in the coverage by media.

 

[True Blue]

In the US there have been 10.8 million people tested with 1.5 million positive cases. Of the positive cases the fatality rate is 5.95%. This rate has been slowly increasing. We don't know the number of people infected. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5% as you suspect then there should be maybe 15-20 million people who were (or are) infected that haven't been tested. I haven't been able to find a number for people who tested for antibodies.

Of the mortality rate, how much of it skews to those that are 65 and older and those that have pre-existing conditions?

 

[sbjnyc]

Of the mortality rate, how much of it skews to those that are 65 and older and those that have pre-existing conditions?

I assume you mean or as Kakko is 19 and has diabetes but is still presumably vulnerable to the virus. Anyway, I'm not sure how much it really matters considering 65 is an arbitrary age and a very large proportion of the US is 65+ (about 50 million) or has a significant comorbidity (e.g. about 35 million people have diabetes).

Regardless, based on CDC data for Feb March and April, about 20% of the deaths were of people under 65. Here are some stats.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Age Group[/TD][TD] Total Deaths[/TD][TD]Covid Deaths[/TD][TD]Flu Deaths [/TD][TD]Pneumonia Deaths [/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

Under 25​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

13,765​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

71​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

131​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

268​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

25-64​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

189,157​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

10,858​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

2,014​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

14,643​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

65+​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

632,685​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

43,932​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

3,965​

[/TD][TD="align: right"]

63,355​

[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

Considering that flu and pneumonia typically results in about 40-60k deaths per year (the vast majority of which is pneumonia) one might wonder if there are some issues in how deaths are attributed to pneumonia considering it is about 6 times the number expected in a year.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

Invest in bumper tables

Knock Hockey!

 

[Gardner McKay]

I posted below what I am basing it on. There was a USC study from 4/20 and then a follow up study was published yesterday and I have posted both below. Granted, it is a study of LA county only but they have 10 million+ people living there. They estimate 4.65% (margin of error puts the range at 2.5% to 7%) of adults have already contracted COVID-19 based on antibody testing.

Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released - Press Room

Coronavirus infections more widespread than expected in L.A. County

I don't think you can generalize antibody exposure in LA county to the rest of the population. But let's suppose it's correct that 4.65% of the adult population was infected. As a rough estimate, that's about 10 million infections total for an infection fatality rate of nearly 1%.

I didn't. Maybe you misread or maybe I just wasn't clear in my post, my apologies if it is the latter. The study was of LA county and the 4.65% is for LA county adults only. Using LA as an example, unless my math is off, the fatality rate in LA would be below 1% as there are less than 2,000 deaths in LA.

However, for arguments sake lets extrapolate those numbers. I think 4.65% would be closer to 15 million than 10 million and put it closer to that .5% mark I was talking about earlier. Still something to take seriously and continue to practice social distancing, wear masks while out, etc. I still wear a mask and gloves every time I leave the house. But I don't think it is as serious as we once thought... which I would think would be good news to most.

 

[sbjnyc]

I didn't. Maybe you misread or maybe I just wasn't clear in my post, my apologies if it is the latter. The study was of LA county and the 4.65% is for LA county adults only. Using LA as an example, unless my math is off, the fatality rate in LA would be below 1% as there are less than 2,000 deaths in LA.

However, for arguments sake lets extrapolate those numbers. I think 4.65% would be closer to 15 million than 10 million and put it closer to that .5% mark I was talking about earlier. Still something to take seriously and continue to practice social distancing, wear masks while out, etc. I still wear a mask and gloves every time I leave the house. But I don't think it is as serious as we once thought... which I would think would be good news to most.

I may have misinterpreted what you meant as you had bolded the CFR I posted for the US as a whole. My initial comment was based on your post stating a 0.5% mortality rate. Was that for just LA county? Anyway, there are 210 million adults in the US (18 or older) and 4.65% of that is just under 10 million. Don't forget that our original expectation (at least what we had originally disussed) was that the mortality rate would be around 0.1% or 0.2%. I don't agree that it's not as serious as we thought. So far it's a lot worse.

 

[True Blue]

I assume you mean or as Kakko is 19 and has diabetes but is still presumably vulnerable to the virus. Anyway, I'm not sure how much it really matters considering 65 is an arbitrary age and a very large proportion of the US is 65+ (about 50 million) or has a significant comorbidity (e.g. about 35 million people have diabetes).

Regardless, based on CDC data for Feb March and April, about 20% of the deaths were of people under 65. Here are some stats.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Age Group[/TD][TD] Total Deaths[/TD][TD]Covid Deaths[/TD][TD]Flu Deaths [/TD][TD]Pneumonia Deaths [/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

Under 25​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

13,765​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

71​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

131​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

268​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

25-64​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

189,157​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

10,858​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

2,014​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

14,643​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD="align: right"]

65+​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

632,685​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

43,932​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

3,965​

[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]

63,355​

[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Considering that flu and pneumonia typically results in about 40-60k deaths per year (the vast majority of which is pneumonia) one might wonder if there are some issues in how deaths are attributed to pneumonia considering it is about 6 times the number expected in a year.

I know the numbers. But just throwing them out there as if they apply straight across the board is not the answer. At least not to me. Of the overall mortality rate, one third of it has resulted in nursing homes (thanks, Cuomo). Further stratified, the great majority of the overall mortality rate has resulted for people who are a) 65 and older and b) have preexisting conditions (this is of any age). If you were to look at the mortality rate of those under 65, you would also see an extremely large percentage of people with the preexisting conditions.

The point being is that yes, this is awful and yes, people are dying. But the biggest danger (death) lies with a certain portion of the population that clearly needs to be protected. Being in NYC, it is impossible not to know people who have not had it. I know more than enough and wish it were different. I believe that there are far more asymptomatic people or people whose symptoms are mild than the other way.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I may have misinterpreted what you meant as you had bolded the CFR I posted for the US as a whole. My initial comment was based on your post stating a 0.5% mortality rate. Was that for just LA county? Anyway, there are 210 million adults in the US (18 or older) and 4.65% of that is just under 10 million. Don't forget that our original expectation (at least what we had originally disussed) was that the mortality rate would be around 0.1% or 0.2%. I don't agree that it's not as serious as we thought. So far it's a lot worse.

I believe you but to be honest I have zero recollection of this discussion

Yeah it will definitely end up being worse than the .2% but at least it won't be nearly as bad as the current rate and that is the rate that scares most people. Hopefully the summer heat will give us a temporary reprieve, long enough to get our ducks in a row if it returns in the fall as expected.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah it will definitely end up being worse than the .2% but at least it won't be nearly as bad as the current rate and that is the rate that scares most people. Hopefully the summer heat will give us a temporary reprieve, long enough to get our ducks in a row if it returns in the fall as expected.

The rate would be been much better had Cuomo not turned nursing homes into death pits.