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OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV - II

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Fireonk said:
I am just not sure I see a solution until there is either mass testing in place for everyone or antibody testing available, that would allow us to come up with some reasonable guidelines that wouldn't lead to a massive 2nd wave. At least in NYC with its high reliance on mass transit.

Other than mass gatherings, if you are opening things back up every single business is going to start opening and expecting their workers to come in. No business can legitimately stay alive if others are back to making money and there is nothing else coming in the way of a stimulus (which there wont be if others are opening up.) So how do you legitimately stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed again in a month?

And if you do get a 2nd wave then we just need to close up shop again for another month. And then back in the same spot to worry about stopping a 3rd wave.
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If we see out the 1st wave completely and don't run out early, it will take months for a 2nd wave to blossom.
 
Machinehead said:
If we see out the 1st wave completely and don't run out early, it will take months for a 2nd wave to blossom.
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Yes, but we were discussing the ability to open back up May 1st, which likely means the 1st wave isn't completely gone.
 
ecemleafs said:
did u see what the new cases and total tests were for today?
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Fireonk said:
I am just not sure I see a solution until there is either mass testing in place for everyone or antibody testing available, that would allow us to come up with some reasonable guidelines that wouldn't lead to a massive 2nd wave. At least in NYC with its high reliance on mass transit.
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This is why I said there will be many that disagree.

You certainly are looking at things rationally. But this is a completely irrational time. No president or governor can afford to see breadlines happen. I did this example before but will do it again. Take the accounting industry. Yes, the Big 4 firm is a huge company. But they WILL go down if their clients go out of business. Yes, their clients are very large, but this is affecting everything. Whether their client is financial or commercial, prolonged isolation and historic level market dislocation will make them permanently close. That will drive even a Big 4 firm out of business. But not until mass layoffs happen first. So then you go to the midsize companies. Well, already most small business are shuttered. So when they do not reopen, the smaller and mid size accounting firms have mass layoffs. Then you go to the sole practitioner. The individuals that are being serviced by that person are unemployed and cannot afford the service anymore. Now you have the big corp, the mid size firm and that small individual, ALL out of business. That would be adding on to ALL of the smaller businesses that have already been wiped out and all of the bars, restaurants, delis, cafes that will never reopen.

Long term, that is catastrophic. So no, I do not believe that neither the federal nor state government is going to allow for such a scenario to unfold. And that is not even talking about the physical toll of an extended isolation. I am sure that some of the papers will scream, and I am sure that some politicians will scream but neither state nor federal government will be willing to sacrifice the long term health of a state and a country. Yes, there will be people that refuse and if they can work from home, they will. There will also be people that never leave their house again. But gradually, the businesses will reopen and probably not fast enough for some. And too soon for others.
 
True Blue said:
This is why I said there will be many that disagree.

You certainly are looking at things rationally. But this is a completely irrational time. No president or governor can afford to see breadlines happen. I did this example before but will do it again. Take the accounting industry. Yes, the Big 4 firm is a huge company. But they WILL go down if their clients go out of business. Yes, their clients are very large, but this is affecting everything. Whether their client is financial or commercial, prolonged isolation and historic level market dislocation will make them permanently close. That will drive even a Big 4 firm out of business. But not until mass layoffs happen first. So then you go to the midsize companies. Well, already most small business are shuttered. So when they do not reopen, the smaller and mid size accounting firms have mass layoffs. Then you go to the sole practitioner. The individuals that are being serviced by that person are unemployed and cannot afford the service anymore. Now you have the big corp, the mid size firm and that small individual, ALL out of business. That would be adding on to ALL of the smaller businesses that have already been wiped out and all of the bars, restaurants, delis, cafes that will never reopen.

Long term, that is catastrophic. So no, I do not believe that neither the federal nor state government is going to allow for such a scenario to unfold. And that is not even talking about the physical toll of an extended isolation. I am sure that some of the papers will scream, and I am sure that some politicians will scream but neither state nor federal government will be willing to sacrifice the long term health of a state and a country. Yes, there will be people that refuse and if they can work from home, they will. There will also be people that never leave their house again. But gradually, the businesses will reopen and probably not fast enough for some. And too soon for others.
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We can't just hide forever. I get that part of it and so do the people in charge. I do think we need to ride out this curve. Not doing so will just cause more flare-ups and send us inside for longer. When this curve subsides depends on where in the country you are (which is going to be a challenge since it's a global economy) but I think by June 1 we could see this curve gone in New York.

That's when I think we can go ahead with a transition plan but we have to be smart. Massive gatherings like sports, concerts, parades, etc. are probably out until there's a vaccine. Semi-distancing practices will have to be in place, meaning we can go out, but don't get right on top of people if you can help it. We may continue with masks for a bit. The MTA slashed service during the curve and that makes some sense right now, but I think they'll need to ramp up service during the transition, above what they normally provide. This will keep people from being right on top of each other.

As time progresses, less aggressive strains will become dominant. That's just how the biology works. That will help us.

The most important thing is that testing and tracing is going to have to be on point so the few lingering cases, which there will be until the virus is completely dead, don't turn into an outbreak. That would be much easier with a federal response, but I digress.
 
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True Blue said:
This is why I said there will be many that disagree.

You certainly are looking at things rationally. But this is a completely irrational time. No president or governor can afford to see breadlines happen. I did this example before but will do it again. Take the accounting industry. Yes, the Big 4 firm is a huge company. But they WILL go down if their clients go out of business. Yes, their clients are very large, but this is affecting everything. Whether their client is financial or commercial, prolonged isolation and historic level market dislocation will make them permanently close. That will drive even a Big 4 firm out of business. But not until mass layoffs happen first. So then you go to the midsize companies. Well, already most small business are shuttered. So when they do not reopen, the smaller and mid size accounting firms have mass layoffs. Then you go to the sole practitioner. The individuals that are being serviced by that person are unemployed and cannot afford the service anymore. Now you have the big corp, the mid size firm and that small individual, ALL out of business. That would be adding on to ALL of the smaller businesses that have already been wiped out and all of the bars, restaurants, delis, cafes that will never reopen.

Long term, that is catastrophic. So no, I do not believe that neither the federal nor state government is going to allow for such a scenario to unfold. And that is not even talking about the physical toll of an extended isolation. I am sure that some of the papers will scream, and I am sure that some politicians will scream but neither state nor federal government will be willing to sacrifice the long term health of a state and a country. Yes, there will be people that refuse and if they can work from home, they will. There will also be people that never leave their house again. But gradually, the businesses will reopen and probably not fast enough for some. And too soon for others.
Click to expand...

I don't think the decision is between May 1st or just whenever this is fully cured. Waiting an extra 2-4 weeks now, if it will significantly help the spread of things, will be much less damaging then creating a 2nd wave of this and having to shut down 4-6 weeks again after a month.

It could be May 1st. I just dont think having a specific date right now makes sense. Need to see the numbers drastically come down and have a plan on how we are going to prevent the 2nd wave from happening at all.

If we get to June and nothing has changed, yeah we will probably just have to rip the band-aid at some point.
 
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Boris was another slow responder. I don't know how succession for a Prime Minister works in the UK but it would seem it's time to start thinking about it. If Boris recovers I would think that the next pandemic that comes his way he'll take a little more seriously.

The numbers of new cases in NY from yesterday to today were a bit higher than the day before. The number of deaths were slightly higher. There seems to be some levelling off but I don't think we've quite hit the top of the mountain and the descent might be very gradual. Stayed in again today. I go out about once a week to the grocery store--that's about half an hour. Any place that looks packed (too many cars) I avoid. I try to go early and I'm looking for places with maybe 15 cars or less.
 
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This is why voting by mail, especially during a pandemic like this, needs to be more prevalent in the US voting system. Along with other measures to give eligible voters an easier time with longer voting windows (should be a week leading up to Election Day), making Election Day a federal holiday, easier registration (should be automatic registration, restoring rights to formerly incarcerated people, etc. Especially for primaries.

You know...logical things.

The entire system is not really beneficial to having the most eligible voters actually....well....vote. Needs a redesign.

And now you have, in the middle of a pandemic, citizens voting in long lines, on a single day, in a single voting center in most cases.

And yes, politicians have started to say the quiet part out loud lately.
 
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