OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV - II

[True Blue]

I know someone who is living over there right now (who is a doctor, might I add.) Yes shit is censored, but they also did a better job handling this epidemic than Ol' Donny did.

Again the "NO ONE IS HANDLING THIS WELL" excuse doesn't hold any water. Other countries, which had less time to prepare, have done way better. There is no excuse for things to be as bad as they are.

They are bad everywhere.

One of us has some poor information. I work with two people who have family there. So either they are being lied to or they are lying to me.

 

[Fireonk]

I am definitely not trusting any information that comes out of China. Same with Russia. There are countries, besides South Korea, that have seemingly done a much better job than us that I do trust the numbers from, including but not limited to places like:
Germany
Austria
Norway
Israel
Canada

Hard to get a full picture until every country that is affected finishes its first wave due to the different timelines. Some countries definitely passed the first test, I think its fairly obvious that we didn't.

How countries re-open and get back to business will be test #2.

 

[True Blue]

and for those worried about the long term impacts of the economy, I think that a second outbreak would cause real mass hysteria and a 2nd lockdown would be so much worse than it is right now...so while it can't be continued forever, there is probably a bigger risk in ending it too soon then waiting a little bit longer. JMO

I do not think that there would be a second lockdown. At that point, it's the proverbial bandage being ripped off.

There are risks in ending too early and I am not an expert in what "early" is. But not one president or governor can allow an unemployment rate of 35-50%.

 

[Leetch3]

Another possibility is flattening the curve to the extent that the health care can handle the sick and until there is enough immunity to go back to living like normal.

allowing the health care system to handle the sick is 100% the point of 'flattening the curve' thru the initial wave....but how do you avoid another spike once people go back to their normal lives?

 

[Machinehead]

Nancy Pelosi specifically said people should go to Chinatown to have the delicious food. That is a direct quote that put people in danger. Biden said that the travel ban is racist and that Trump was fear mongering when the first travel bans were placed. Pelosi was also trying to get a bill together to limit Trump's abilities to place travel bans. That is directly doing things that place people in danger.

"Look what the blue team did" doesn't have any bearing on my soul whatsoever. I'm not a democrat, never would be.

And it doesn't excuse anything when Trump is the one in charge and still not doing enough.

 

[jniklast]

Big private care giver (homes for elders) have started to test all employee for corona virus and antibodies from having had Covid-19 in Sweden

As I understand it, these teats just hit the market where you can test for antibodies in large scale.

Anyway, the results sticks out — of the first circa 100 tests made today — 20% had Covid 19 and 10% had antibodies. This is people who was on duty.

I’ve heard several similar news the last day or two. Doesn’t at all seem unlikely that in a week — the estimates of how many has Covid 19 will 10x and the mortality rate will drop 90%. The current estimates of 1-2% of the population getting it just can’t be right in light of the anecdotical news we are getting all the time and have for some time.

We will see, but right now that seems very unlikely at least for Germany for example. A study released yesterday estimated that the actual number of people who had the disease is about 8-10 times the official number. But that would still just about mean 1% of the population. And again, the test results do not seem to indicate a higher number either as only about 8% of all tests are currently positive - and these tests are mostly done on people showing symptoms or having had contact with infected people.
Currently there is a big antibody testing done involving 100k people which should show pretty good numbers, although currently these tests do not seem entirely reliable. From what I have read, they can test positive even if the person only had one of the harmless Coronovirae (that can cause a common cold) in the past.

In the end it will probably still only be about 1-2% of the population having had the virus already, which means that the herd immunity won't be safely achieved until a vaccine is likely available anyway.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

They are bad everywhere.

One of us has some poor information. I work with two people who have family there. So either they are being lied to or they are lying to me.

Things are not as poor as they are here (which is my point, not that China is doing well, they aren't) pretty much anywhere else and we have the resources to ensure that this kind of shit doesn't get out of hand (and we had the heads up long before it touched down.)

I get that Trump is your guy, but you have to be blind to think that he has handled this situation as well as he could have. This is like praising Marc Staal for blocking a shot in a shift that he gave the puck away which led to the attempt to begin with in a game they're already losing because of his previous gaffes... And then Staal going all Dan Boyle Vs. Brooksie on the media when being asked legitimate questions.

What I do know is that we could have (and should have) had better, more robust testing available before this became an issue which would have severely limited not only the amount of cases that turned into hospitalization (or worse.)

 

[Leetch3]

I do not think that there would be a second lockdown. At that point, it's the proverbial bandage being ripped off.

There are risks in ending too early and I am not an expert in what "early" is. But not one president or governor can allow an unemployment rate of 35-50%.

but it could be worse if there is a 2nd outbreak that results in the need for a 2nd shutdown....you hope that most of the unemployment right now is temporary until things go back to normal. so as bad as it is, a short term period of that unemployment is better than a long term unemployment. I think the economy will recover pretty quickly after things go back to normal...

but also to clarify i'm NOT suggesting that we need to stay in quarantine forever. i'm just asking out loud how does anyone know when its safe to end it. the 'when' is probably the hardest call in the whole situation.

 

[True Blue]

"Look what the blue team did" doesn't have any bearing on my soul whatsoever. I'm not a democrat, never would be.

And it doesn't excuse anything when Trump is the one in charge and still not doing enough.

Not a democrat nor a republican thing. I was only addressing statements that put people in danger.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

but it could be worse if there is a 2nd outbreak that results in the need for a 2nd shutdown....you hope that most of the unemployment right now is temporary until things go back to normal. so as bad as it is, a short term period of that unemployment is better than a long term unemployment. I think the economy will recover pretty quickly after things go back to normal...

but also to clarify i'm NOT suggesting that we need to stay in quarantine forever. i'm just asking out loud how does anyone know when its safe to end it. the 'when' is probably the hardest call in the whole situation.

It's going to have to be done in waves i.e: People who were infected and recovered return first, then another smaller group, and another or something of that nature. That way if/when there is a rash of infections, it's contained to a much smaller group.

If the plan is to open everything up to the masses within the next month, we're going to be sitting here doing the same thing during the summer.

 

[Machinehead]

Not a democrat nor a republican thing. I was only addressing statements that put people in danger.

 

[Irishguy42]

Pretty wild watching this in both your message and your signature. Now, if only you could un-sync it juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust a little bit...

 

[NYSPORTS]

It's going to have to be done in waves i.e: People who were infected and recovered return first, then another smaller group, and another or something of that nature. That way if/when there is a rash of infections, it's contained to a much smaller group.

If the plan is to open everything up to the masses within the next month, we're going to be sitting here doing the same thing during the summer.

Do we know for sure those who were infected and recovered symptom wise cannot infect others b/c many of those who have recovered from symptoms still test positive. Know of two people whose symptoms faded yet they still test positive. Can they infect others?

Meanwhile, we have many without symptoms who a have tested positive.

Not sure how we wrap our arms around this. Thoughts?

 

[True Blue]

but it could be worse if there is a 2nd outbreak that results in the need for a 2nd shutdown....you hope that most of the unemployment right now is temporary until things go back to normal. so as bad as it is, a short term period of that unemployment is better than a long term unemployment. I think the economy will recover pretty quickly after things go back to normal...

but also to clarify i'm NOT suggesting that we need to stay in quarantine forever. i'm just asking out loud how does anyone know when its safe to end it. the 'when' is probably the hardest call in the whole situation.

That is my point. I do not think that there will be a second shut down. People will have cases of this again. Once a virus is out there, it is permanently out there.

And the point regarding unemployment is long term. A prolonged isolation will wipe out industries. Entire industries. That is not a short term thing. That is bread lines and worse. It will take time for things to get back to normal, but if you isolate for several more months, that is exactly the scenario that the country will be facing. Once businesses are wiped out, there really is no difference between temporary unemployment and long term. And we are talking about on the country as a whole. In certain stated, unemployment would be greater than 50 %.

 

[True Blue]

Things are not as poor as they are here (which is my point, not that China is doing well, they aren't) pretty much anywhere else and we have the resources to ensure that this kind of shit doesn't get out of hand (and we had the heads up long before it touched down.)

I get that Trump is your guy, but you have to be blind to think that he has handled this situation as well as he could have. This is like praising Marc Staal for blocking a shot in a shift that he gave the puck away which led to the attempt to begin with in a game they're already losing because of his previous gaffes... And then Staal going all Dan Boyle Vs. Brooksie on the media when being asked legitimate questions.

What I do know is that we could have (and should have) had better, more robust testing available before this became an issue which would have severely limited not only the amount of cases that turned into hospitalization (or worse.)

Trump is not my guy. I can just call a spade a spade.

What I also know do know is that the shortage of masks and ventilators in NYC also falls on Bloomberg, DeBlasio & Cuomo. The federal government is not there to hold your hand. Each of those 3 could have stepped it up. Does Trump share blame? Sure. But it is a blame that goes around. Cuomo has handled it well NOW. In fact, as well as possible. And frankly, I do not see what any other president could have done differently. But I guess we see what we want to see.

 

[Machinehead]

Pretty wild watching this in both your message and your signature. Now, if only you could un-sync it juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust a little bit...

It's a beautiful thing

 

[Machinehead]

Trump is not my guy. I can just call a spade a spade.

What I also know do know is that the shortage of masks and ventilators in NYC also falls on Bloomberg, DeBlasio & Cuomo. The federal government is not there to hold your hand. Each of those 3 could have stepped it up. Does Trump share blame? Sure. But it is a blame that goes around. Cuomo has handled it well NOW. In fact, as well as possible. And frankly, I do not see what any other president could have done differently. But I guess we see what we want to see.

Maybe not say "it's gonna go away like a miracle" in late March?

Trump wasn't getting it wrong in January when everyone was because it was a new threat. He still doesn't get it.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Do we know for sure those who were infected and recovered symptom wise cannot infect others b/c many of those who have recovered from symptoms still test positive. Know of two people whose symptoms faded yet they still test positive. Can they infect others?

Meanwhile, we have many without symptoms who a have tested positive.

Not sure how we wrap our arms around this. Thoughts?

This is a good point.

We'd have to probably figure that out before doing anything, which would only delay things further (though Im sure they're already in the process of figuring this out.)

 

[Ola]

allowing the health care system to handle the sick is 100% the point of 'flattening the curve' thru the initial wave....but how do you avoid another spike once people go back to their normal lives?

You can’t let up. Ideally you can keep society open at a level where you can get by while keeping the curve in control.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

Maybe I have the virus, but I dreamed we just opened our series with the Bruins and won 3-2. Bread, Chytil, Lemmy. And of course Igor.

 

[True Blue]

It's going to have to be done in waves i.e: People who were infected and recovered return first, then another smaller group, and another or something of that nature. That way if/when there is a rash of infections, it's contained to a much smaller group.

If the plan is to open everything up to the masses within the next month, we're going to be sitting here doing the same thing during the summer.

I agree that it is going to be done in waves. And should be. I have never said it will be all done in one shot.

What kind of waves is a different question. I do not think it will be first people who had it come back. And some things will be up to the specific companies/businesses. So maybe the first wave back is those that are not in the high risk bracket. Maybe some companies go to two week rotations for a while. If you want to continue to work from home, to the extend that your job allows it, you will probably be able to continue to do that. In addition, maybe it is the offices that reopen first. That is followed by waves of gyms, restaurants, dry cleaners, retail stores, etc.

I do not think that everything gets opened at once to the masses. But over the course of several months.

 

[Lua]

Guys... who cares that the inspector general was dismissed just prior to the rolling out of the single most expensive relief package in US history. Pelosi said to get Chinese takeout a few weeks ago.

Thrilled that Americans have their priorities in order and are pointing their fingers are the right people. Bang up job, lads.

 

[Ola]

Then entire industries get wiped out. No more restaurants. No more gyms. No more bars. There really is no social distancing in places like that and they rely on volume. A 40 table restaurant cannot survive on being open with only 10. Your local gym with 40 treadmills will not survive with only 10. Bar inherently rely on crowds. Planes need to travel. Heck, every single summer camp for children in America will get wiped out. Bailouts can only go so far.

It will be measured, but you will see things open. And that will include crowds for those that seek them. Some people will stay home. Some will never shake hands again. Some will become complete shut ins. But during the summer if you want to go to your neighborhood pub to get a cocktail, you will be able to.

You need to find the right mix, allowing business to survive with support from the state and an appropriate level of commerce while keeping the curve flat enough so that the hospitals can handle the sick (while expanding hospital capacity).

Think many policitcians did nothing too long and then panicked and shut down everything which isn’t good either. A vaccine will take a long time.

 

[True Blue]

Maybe not say "it's gonna go away like a miracle" in late March?

Trump wasn't getting it wrong in January when everyone was because it was a new threat. He still doesn't get it.

The wildly optimistic statements were done by just about every single politician and publication. The NY Times wondered about the need for restrictions in February. The CNNs of the world wondered aloud about how dangerous this really is. So that blame needs to be spread around.

 

[True Blue]

You need to find the right mix, allowing business to survive with support from the state and an appropriate level of commerce while keeping the curve flat enough so that the hospitals can handle the sick (while expanding hospital capacity).

Think many policitcians did nothing too long and then panicked and shut down everything which isn’t good either. A vaccine will take a long time.

Agreed. A vaccine is not around the corner. I think that this virus is here to stay, the same way N-19 is, swine flu, bird flu, etc. Once a virus gets released into the air, it is not going anywhere. But eventually people develop anti-bodies and some sort of medication. But eventually, after things get reopened, someone will get it again. And more than one someone.