MyLoveIsBlue
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- Feb 20, 2015
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OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV - II
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
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JCProdigy
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all state and county parks in NJ are closed as of 8pm tonight to prevent covidiots from gathering there.
JCProdigy
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In Germany the reported cases are exactly 50/50 while also men are more likely to die from it. I'd assume that while both genders are equally likely to catch the disease, men are more likely to develop serious symptoms and die from it. Then the big discrepancy in most countries likely stems from mostly only testing persons which have developed serious symptoms - and those are mostly men.The stats in South Korea are completely baffling and make no sense. Everywhere else men are are affected more than women, they are seeing as high as double in NYC (In N.Y.C., the Coronavirus Is Killing Men Twice as Often as Women). Yet in South Korea cases are 60/40 women (but more deadly for men):
KCDC
JimmyG89
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- May 1, 2010
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Update for the model being used by the WH:
NY info is also in the thread, with an increases in NY deaths, but the rest of the country should suffer less deaths and needs. This once again enforces the obvious, we were failed on all levels, but that our city and state officials did not handle this well at all.
Last thing is that the end of this is pushed up a little bit and that we could be in the clear sooner than originally expected.
NY info is also in the thread, with an increases in NY deaths, but the rest of the country should suffer less deaths and needs. This once again enforces the obvious, we were failed on all levels, but that our city and state officials did not handle this well at all.
Last thing is that the end of this is pushed up a little bit and that we could be in the clear sooner than originally expected.
south korea aggressively tracked covid patients and their contacts. possibly some of the original covid patients had more female contacts and since they limited the spread, it didnt even out through the general population?
Could be, I don't know much about the South Korean gender structure regarding jobs that have more or less social interaction which could also be an explanation. I think in the end it is just very, very likely that both men and women catch the virus equally often. It just seems that women on average can better deal with it. This could be due to a healthier living on average or it might be a genetic trait.
So in the end the difference in distribution could be somewhat of an indicator of how extensive testing is done and how many people approximately are infected with few symptoms.
Just pointing out the other obvious point, not all city and state officials didn't handle this well. The fact that our most populated state, California, has done a seemingly monster job should be recognized. As well as the other local authorities that stepped up.
I hope this updated model ends up being close to hitting the mark.
UnSandvich
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- Sep 7, 2017
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NY deaths are projected to drop more than 2300, where are you getting an increase in NY deaths?
UnSandvich
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- Sep 7, 2017
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people talk about flattening the curve like once that happens everything is fine and we can go back to normal. but the reason it is flattening is because people are staying inside. if everyone starts going out again too soon you'd probably see another huge spike....there is really no way to go back to normal and also be safe without massive testing for everyone. you can't test .00001% of people and think its ok.
and for those worried about the long term impacts of the economy, I think that a second outbreak would cause real mass hysteria and a 2nd lockdown would be so much worse than it is right now...so while it can't be continued forever, there is probably a bigger risk in ending it too soon then waiting a little bit longer. JMO
and for those worried about the long term impacts of the economy, I think that a second outbreak would cause real mass hysteria and a 2nd lockdown would be so much worse than it is right now...so while it can't be continued forever, there is probably a bigger risk in ending it too soon then waiting a little bit longer. JMO
Big private care giver (homes for elders) have started to test all employee for corona virus and antibodies from having had Covid-19 in Sweden
As I understand it, these teats just hit the market where you can test for antibodies in large scale.
Anyway, the results sticks out — of the first circa 100 tests made today — 20% had Covid 19 and 10% had antibodies. This is people who was on duty.
I’ve heard several similar news the last day or two. Doesn’t at all seem unlikely that in a week — the estimates of how many has Covid 19 will 10x and the mortality rate will drop 90%. The current estimates of 1-2% of the population getting it just can’t be right in light of the anecdotical news we are getting all the time and have for some time.
As I understand it, these teats just hit the market where you can test for antibodies in large scale.
Anyway, the results sticks out — of the first circa 100 tests made today — 20% had Covid 19 and 10% had antibodies. This is people who was on duty.
I’ve heard several similar news the last day or two. Doesn’t at all seem unlikely that in a week — the estimates of how many has Covid 19 will 10x and the mortality rate will drop 90%. The current estimates of 1-2% of the population getting it just can’t be right in light of the anecdotical news we are getting all the time and have for some time.
JimmyG89
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I read that wrong when posting, trying to do too many things at one time. It's a decrease, but it's not at the same rate as the rest of the country, which you would hope would be consistent.
Another possibility is flattening the curve to the extent that the health care can handle the sick and until there is enough immunity to go back to living like normal.
That is more of a product of local government than federal. Bloomberg initially started to discuss it. Then for some reason neither the governor nor mayor though to increase capacity and in fact canceled orders when old masks expired and ventilators got old.
Being at the hub of world travel for NYC and given the amount of people didn't help the situation. Nor did DiBlashio urging people to go to bars and restaurants.
China is a totalitarian state. And how can you believe any of the news that comes out of there? People that I work with have relatives there. They are not spinning the same sunny tale the government is. And everything is censored.
Obviously the people creating these models are much smarter than myself, but I am curious how much of the model is taking into account the # of cases being reported is still being held back by the lack of testing. Anyone know?
Then entire industries get wiped out. No more restaurants. No more gyms. No more bars. There really is no social distancing in places like that and they rely on volume. A 40 table restaurant cannot survive on being open with only 10. Your local gym with 40 treadmills will not survive with only 10. Bar inherently rely on crowds. Planes need to travel. Heck, every single summer camp for children in America will get wiped out. Bailouts can only go so far.
It will be measured, but you will see things open. And that will include crowds for those that seek them. Some people will stay home. Some will never shake hands again. Some will become complete shut ins. But during the summer if you want to go to your neighborhood pub to get a cocktail, you will be able to.
I know someone who is living over there right now (who is a doctor, might I add.) Yes shit is censored, but they also did a better job handling this epidemic than Ol' Donny did.
Again the "NO ONE IS HANDLING THIS WELL" excuse doesn't hold any water. Other countries, which had less time to prepare, have done way better. There is no excuse for things to be as bad as they are.
Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
I frankly don't understand how anyone can say this when China has been misleading with regards to just about every aspect of this virus.
Only one of two things can be true:
1. The conspiracy theorists are right and China created/leaked this virus, was prepared for it and are using it as means to take over as the #1 power in the world and give legitimacy to a modern day communist regime.
2. The significantly more likely scenario that they woefully under reported everything and we really have no idea just how bad things were in China because their censorship goes far beyond what most imagine.
I honestly find it impossible that the country in which it originated in did one of the best jobs of containing the virus considering it was running rampant for an unknown period of time. Which again, leads us back to the two options above.
South Korea handled this well. That is it.
NYSPORTS
back afta dis. . .
- Jun 17, 2019
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i agree. I think people will perceive the threat as less or gone. My fear is this virus will slightly linger and infiltrate the entire nation slightly from now thru summer and then explode come autumn.
Nancy Pelosi specifically said people should go to Chinatown to have the delicious food. That is a direct quote that put people in danger. Biden said that the travel ban is racist and that Trump was fear mongering when the first travel bans were placed. Pelosi was also trying to get a bill together to limit Trump's abilities to place travel bans. That is directly doing things that place people in danger.
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