OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part III

[EdJovanovski]

And that number is only going to get higher and higher.

So this pandemic is going to be the only one in the history of the planet that goes on forever? Once it passes there is going to be a massive increase in demand for all the jobs that have been lost to the virus and there will be a hiring boom.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

 

[GordonGecko]

You don't get "points" for being a dumb asshole

It's rough right now and we're going though the beginning of the worse but we are dealing with it head on. You can't say the same for Russia, Japan (they are ignoring the problem), Brazil, and India who just only 2 days ago issued a lockdown order for all 1.3B people. The longer they ignore, the steeper that ramp until it just explodes and you're going to have an unimaginable number of dead bodies

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

The "this is all media hype" crowd hasn't spoken in a few days, oh where could they be?

 

[Gardner McKay]

My fiancee's father works EM in a local hospital by us.

From texts we've gotten, they've been told that due to the shortage of proper N95 masks and whatnot, they need to take their used ones and put them in the oven for 30 minutes before they use them again. Disgusting and horrible medical protection. But our president* thinks that Cuomo is wrong and NYC/NYS doesn't need 30k masks (they do).

We're going to bed each night worried that he or her sister, who is immuno-comprimised, will contract the virus and die.

I thought it was ventilators, not masks. Either way, I agree with you. NYC of all areas needs everything it can get.

 

[Gardner McKay]

My fiancee's father works EM in a local hospital by us.

From texts we've gotten, they've been told that due to the shortage of proper N95 masks and whatnot, they need to take their used ones and put them in the oven for 30 minutes before they use them again. Disgusting and horrible medical protection. But our president* thinks that Cuomo is wrong and NYC/NYS doesn't need 30k masks (they do).

We're going to bed each night worried that he or her sister, who is immuno-comprimised, will contract the virus and die.

I thought it was ventilators, not masks. Either way, I agree with you. NYC of all areas needs everything it can get.

 

[SA16]

Here is how the infection is spreading in the US:


Total confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases at end of each Tuesday:
• Jan. 14 — 0
• Jan. 21 — 1
• Jan. 28 — 5
• Feb. 4 — 11
• Feb. 11 — 14
• Feb. 18 — 25
• Feb. 25 — 59
• Mar. 3 — 125
• Mar. 10 — 1,004
• Mar. 17 — 5,902
• Mar. 24 — 53,478

as you can see the infection rate is exploding. A certain percentage will need ventilators but those that need them have them for 15 days. As you can see demand for respirators will surpass supply especially in hot spots.

Our government is capable of using the DPA to order factories to start making respirators like we had car factories make tanks during WWII. That is NOT being done.

Our government seems to think that providing respirators is some sort of reward to states. It is not. It is a necessity. I am very alarmed at this and everyone else n or around a hotspot such as NYC should be too.

Those numbers really don't tell you much if the testing wasn't constant throughout the time period.

 

[Irishguy42]

I thought it was ventilators, not masks. Either way, I agree with you. NYC of all areas needs everything it can get.

You're right. My bad. I've already started my day-drinking for today. Doctors in

Still, the point remains because he is also not providing enough emergency supplies to hospitals in general and instead just letting it go through the kindness of other companies hearts. Doctors shouldn't be wearing N95 masks anyway. They should be wearing full on P100 respirators and whatnot.

The medical supply issue could be fixed pretty well if he'd get off his ass and do something about it.

@Gardner McKay I did edit the post during your "like" of my previous post, so perhaps review and change your like status. Feels disingenuous on my part although I only saw the notification as I posted the edits.

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[GordonGecko]

View attachment 339354

It would be funnier if he he had a filter on that sax, instead he's just breathing in all the air anyways

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

Those numbers really don't tell you much if the testing wasn't constant throughout the time period.

We have to go by some data. It shows the verified cases. I agree it would be better if we were testing a whole lot more but we are not doing that.

 

[SA16]

We have to go by some data. It shows the verified cases. I agree it would be better if we were testing a whole lot more but we are not doing that.

Yea I just don't think the numbers are that useful. For all we know there were 50,000 cases on March 17 but we didn't have enough tests at that point to know it/turned too many people away. Since the rate of testing is increasing it's going to artificially make it look like the rate of infection is increasing at an even more rapid rate. It would probably be better to go by percentage of Tests Positive/Tests Given in each time period except this of course also runs into the issue that as there are more tests available they likely will be less stringent on who gets tested therefore you may see the Positive% artificially decrease. Without somehow normalizing for the increased availability of testing I think the data is rather useless and makes things look worse.

It's like how people always complain the NHL pbp data is not good enough. I think the data here is not good enough to paint an accurate picture of the situation. You really need to do random sampling of the population to know what's going on but tests aren't available enough to do so.

 

[eco's bones]

is anybody else confused? Can somebody explain what’s real and what’s not?

The number change hourly so can’t hold me to

1 - NYC has approx 23K people with the virus. Do we have any idea how many need ventilators? Cuomo wants 35K of ventilators. Now that might be as this continues but what about today? I keep reading multiple hospitals are both being selective as to who gets a ventilator and hospitals rejecting those with symptoms b/c they have no ventilators.

what is true? How many ventilators do we need today, how many people are being rejected at the door?

out of the 23,000 people with the Virus, how many need ventilators today? All I hear is “we need 35K” .

2- can we get the actual number? If you need 4,000 today, tell us. If multiple companies are now making ventilators then we can get likely get to 35K ventilators as you need them. What’s the point of sending 35K ventilators to Ny when 15Kplus will just sit there waiting and others need the devices elsewhere?

3- So many parts of the country have few cases. Yes, it’s going to spread. Until we get a vaccine or nature cuts us a break it’s not safe anywhere. Juggling the opening of the economy and close it is an impossible thing to manage both economically and emotionally b/c people need both their health and money.

Thoughts? Especially #1 and #2 please

Cuomo did a press conference around noon today and was asked some of what your post is getting at. He says NYS has ventilators in reserve--that they are currently not using them all. He's looking at data from several difference sources--I don't remember them all--I know McKinsey was one of them and all these sources are telling him that the apex which isn't here---may be two/three weeks out--all the data is showing him that's what NYS is going to need. That's what he's pointing out--that this is what the data from those diverse sources are telling he's going to need.

In Madrid today they are taking 65 year olds and older off of ventilators with the idea of sedating them until they die. In the first 5 minutes of the video below a very emotional Spanish doctor describes that:



Their makeshift morgue is the local ice rink by the way.

If you remember the remark Cuomo made a couple days ago about his mother 'not being expendable'--in Spain today his mother would be. Now my parents are both gone--but maybe most people's here are not. But that's the choices they have to make in Spain (as were made in Italy) because they've been overwhelmed. So basically this is what Cuomo is fighting for. That said people who are on ventilators too long--20 or 30 days their chances are not good.

Anyway NYS is around 40,000 cases right now and there were more than 450 dead as reported in an Albany paper this morning.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Cuomo did a press conference around noon today and was asked some of what your post is getting at. He says NYS has ventilators in reserve--that they are currently not using them all. He's looking at data from several difference sources--I don't remember them all--I know McKinsey was one of them and all these sources are telling him that the apex which isn't here---may be two/three weeks out--all the data is showing him that's what NYS is going to need. That's what he's pointing out--that this is what the data from those diverse sources are telling he's going to need.

In Madrid today they are taking 65 year olds and older off of ventilators with the idea of sedating them until they die. In the first 5 minutes of the video below a very emotional Spanish doctor describes that:



.

why are they not using them all? What you described in Madrid has already happened at Mt Siani. They give them a morphine drip.

This is what’s not making sense. Cuomo goes nuts regarding NY being shopping 400 ventilators and says “what am I supposed to do with 400” yet he still hasn’t dipped into his own reserves of over 1000 and patients are being given morphine drips to expire more comfortably b/c they don’t have ventilators? What is going on here? My gosh.

no idea why two horse are attached to this. Site working well lol

 

[Irishguy42]

Yes. Cuomo is basically asking for the ventilators today for tomorrow.

It's not about needing 30k ventilators now, but the likelihood that they will need the 30k later.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Delete

 

[Hire Sather]

why are they not using them all? What you described in Madrid has already happened at Mt Siani. They give them a morphine drip.

This is what’s not making sense. Cuomo goes nuts regarding NY being shopping 400 ventilators and says “what am I supposed to do with 400” yet he still hasn’t dipped into his own reserves of over 1000 and patients are being given morphine drips to expire more comfortably b/c they don’t have ventilators? What is going on here? My gosh.

He doesn't need them yet

He's planning for the future based on science

Something someone else should've done in January/Feburary

Thats it. There is no rebuttal possible.

 

[NYSPORTS]

My thoughts are this: Ventilators NEED to be present before they are required to be in use, because a patient will die if they aren't provided a ventilator the moment it is required. 35K is the number of ventilators that will be in use within two weeks according to Cuomo's medical experts. You can't just say "we only need x amount today" because x amount is the number of people who will die if they don't have ventilators today.

New York hospitals are literally sharing ventilators, which is bad for patients, because the other option is death. For some reason formatting isn't working, so I'll direct link the article here:
‘The Other Option Is Death’: New York Starts Sharing of Ventilators

That's a New York Times quote. I will repeat: New York hospitals are having to share ventilators between patients, sub-optimal care for two patients, because the other option is death.

New York needs 35k ventilators NOW because every moment people are dying without them. Listen to your governor, he clearly listens to his medical experts.

2) Companies need to be paid to, or directed to by the government, make those ventilators and distribute them. Without direction from the federal government, this doesn't happen, or states are left on their own to try and figure this out (see the deal the state of California made with Elon Musk/Tesla to get ventilators). This should be happening at the federal level. It is not.

he’s never said that. I don’t believe he’s even said how many are in use as of now. He has reserves he hasn’t tapped, complains about 400 being sent, etc.

I’d like to hear - we have currently x number of ventilators, we anticipate needing 35k by X and maybe more. Take the reserves and use them. Those reserves can them be replenished.

 

[Gardner McKay]

You're right. My bad. I've already started my day-drinking for today. Doctors in

Still, the point remains because he is also not providing enough emergency supplies to hospitals in general and instead just letting it go through the kindness of other companies hearts. Doctors shouldn't be wearing N95 masks anyway. They should be wearing full on P100 respirators and whatnot.

The medical supply issue could be fixed pretty well if he'd get off his ass and do something about it.

@Gardner McKay I did edit the post during your "like" of my previous post, so perhaps review and change your like status. Feels disingenuous on my part although I only saw the notification as I posted the edits.

No worries on the edit.

I am actually quite envious of your day drinking. It is going to be 85 degrees and sunny here today. I think we have had less than 14 rain-free days here in Atlanta in 2020 so I think I am going to join you sooner than later. I have a full bottle of whiskey and an unopened thing of sour mix...

 

[NYSPORTS]

He doesn't need them yet

He's planning for the future based on science

Something someone else should've done in January/Feburary

Thats it. There is no rebuttal possible.

does anybody read? People are dying without ventilators and he isn’t tapping his reserve. The run rate is based on probable statistics. That isn’t science. Science is the virus itself

 

[eco's bones]

why are they not using them all? What you described in Madrid has already happened at Mt Siani. They give them a morphine drip.

This is what’s not making sense. Cuomo goes nuts regarding NY being shopping 400 ventilators and says “what am I supposed to do with 400” yet he still hasn’t dipped into his own reserves of over 1000 and patients are being given morphine drips to expire more comfortably b/c they don’t have ventilators? What is going on here? My gosh.

Because not everyone needs them--they are for the more extreme cases where people are starting to suffocate. Some confirmed cases are not that bad that people have to be hospitalized but they need to be absolutely quarantined.

The last 9 days NYS has gone from 5,711 cases to 44,635 (over 7,000 new cases today) and from 38 deaths to 385 yesterday to 519 today . It's building and two days from now we might be adding 10,000 cases a day and may be talking about 200 or more dying in a day.

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

So the smartest people in the world say it’s a virus, but a guy with a bachelors in bio is saying otherwise and he is the only one who has figured it out?

sorry but hard to take his doomsday scenario of the whole thing very serious.

He clearly states it’s a virus. He also has degrees far beyond a bachelors degree. You are free to disregard at your own risk. I don’t know why you wouldn’t be open to learning more about how this is so dangerous. It is in all our best interest that we recognize the threat and take precautions. The virus does not care what you think about it.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Because not everyone needs them--they are for the more extreme cases where people are starting to suffocate. Some confirmed cases are not that bad that people have to be hospitalized but they need to be absolutely quarantined.

The last 9 days NYS has gone from 5,711 cases to 44,635 (over 7,000 new cases today) and from 38 deaths to 385 yesterday to 519 today . It's building and two days from now we might be adding 10,000 cases a day and may be talking about 200 or more dying in a day.

they’re dying b/c they don’t have a ventilator and you’re posting “not everyone needs them”.

I’m aware of the stats. What are the stats for those on ventilators or needing them? Anybody besides “we need 35K in the future”.

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

he’s never said that. I don’t believe he’s even said how many are in use as of now. He has reserves he hasn’t tapped, complains about 400 being sent, etc.

I’d like to hear - we have currently x number of ventilators, we anticipate needing 35k by X and maybe more. Take the reserves and use them. Those reserves can them be replenished.

It is hard to anticipate how many ventilators will be needed in any given hospital at anytime. You need to have some ready to be sent as needed. This hasn’t peaked here at all. Far from it.

 

[Khelvan]

Yea I just don't think the numbers are that useful. For all we know there were 50,000 cases on March 17 but we didn't have enough tests at that point to know it/turned too many people away. Since the rate of testing is increasing it's going to artificially make it look like the rate of infection is increasing at an even more rapid rate. It would probably be better to go by percentage of Tests Positive/Tests Given in each time period except this of course also runs into the issue that as there are more tests available they likely will be less stringent on who gets tested therefore you may see the Positive% artificially decrease. Without somehow normalizing for the increased availability of testing I think the data is rather useless and makes things look worse.

It's like how people always complain the NHL pbp data is not good enough. I think the data here is not good enough to paint an accurate picture of the situation. You really need to do random sampling of the population to know what's going on but tests aren't available enough to do so.

Honestly even the death rate isn't an accurate indicator at this point because reports out of medical institutions from multiple states is that often for people fighting long illnesses, say cancer, and they contract and die from COVID-19 complications, cause of death is being marked as the underlying condition (e.g. cancer). It's clear that many of these people are not being tested, even after death, for COVID-19 even with their symptoms, and there have been some troubling anecdotes from the medical community that suggest even known infections aren't necessarily listed as cause of death when there's an underlying illness.

I don't know if this is standard medical practice or something unique to this situation, but reports are that deaths are currently being under-reported in the USA because of this.

Coronavirus: Doctors At Hospitals Say COVID-19 Death Numbers Aren’t Consistent
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/those-covid-19-death-toll-figures-are-incomplete/