Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[The Marquis]

With Gonzaga departing the WCC, I think the next school that joins that conference will be California Baptist. No Inland Empire or Baptist institution has ever competed in the WCC. CBU would be the first with both distinctions.

That’s actually a pretty good idea. I can actually see it happening too.

 

[Spydey629]

If NMSU is also poached by the MW, I see C-USA adding two Eastern Time Zone schools.

Next year, there will be 6 Central Time Zone schools in the conference, and adding two in ETZ allows for the divisions to be divided along time zone lines, as there would then be 6 ETZ schools as well. Furman and Wofford would be nice additions to C-USA.

The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference still using divisions. The old PSAC rule no longer applies.

C-USA could add ETZ schools to keep the travel semi-even, but it is not necessary.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference still using divisions. The old PSAC rule no longer applies.

C-USA could add ETZ schools to keep the travel semi-even, but it is not necessary.

Doesn't mean CUSA can't go back to divisions.

 

[Spydey629]

Doesn't mean CUSA can't go back to divisions.

Why would they? There is literally no point.

 

[Takuto Maruki]

Why would they? There is literally no point.

So they can sell stock to The CW, of course.

 

[KevFu]

For a little dose of reality... of the Schools we've been talking about on here... here are their 2023 athletic budgets (the average for FCS is 19m):

Sacramento State - 45m
Texas State - 40m
UTSA - 44m
UNT - 49m
Montana - 24m
Montana State - 28m
Weber State - 17m

A couple of others with sizeable numbers:

UC Davis - 48m
North Dakota - 33m
North Dakota State - 32m
Cal Poly - 40m

For a comparison here's the new look Pac-7

Oregon State - 98m
Washington State - 90m
San Diego State - 96m
Fresno State - 51m
Boise State - 58m
Utah State - 51m
Colorado State - 64m

I'd imagine with the additional revenue the Montana Schools could get to $40m pretty easily, and Sac State could VERY easily with a stadium renovation and the additional revenue. I wonder what the new minimum budget requirement is for the Pac. I think it was $60 prior to this year, but don't quote me on that.

One thing I'd point out on using budgets is that they aren't really apples to apples in both directions.

Like Washington St and Oregon St have huge budgets compared to everyone they just invited from the MWC... but the biggest difference accounting for all that is that WSU/OSU have been getting Pac-10/Pac-12 money from TV for decades, selling tickets to home games against Pac-12 schools for decades, and those other teams have been getting WAC/MWC TV revenue for decades, while rarely if ever getting home opponents like Pac-12 schools to sell a ton of tickets too.

It's a two-way street. Revenues are going to go up when you elevate conferences; A from TV money, B from scheduling and C from just overall excitement.

Look at Tulane in C-USA vs now in the American. They got like $7m annually from moving to the AAC, they renovated/built new facilities and got people actually excited for Tulane athletics. They've gone from "Adding Tulane was the final straw that caused the Big East to split" to "the ideal adds for the Pac-12 are Memphis and Tulane."


You want to look for the things that DON'T change, or can't change. Like Texas State being near both Austin and San Antonio and having 40,0000 students. Schools don't shrink very often. That makes them "The next UCF." UCF was a BIG SCHOOL in a small conference, so when they committed to athletics, you can see how they played their way up.


The other thing with Grand Canyon is that they've had internal discussions about adding football and they have money. They could add football to join the Pac-12, and the Pac-12 could consider it because if they had just opened a new stadium for their new FBS team already, they're on the Pac-12's wishlist somewhere near Fresno St and UNLV. They'd probably be the team added before Utah St and the Pac-12 would be at eight right now.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

If the NCAA changes the FBS minimum to 7 members and the MW adds NMSU, I could see Air Force and Colorado State playing each other in a non-conference game every year on Thanksgiving weekend.

The conference games in the Pac-12 that weekend would then be:
Boise State-Utah State
Fresno State-San Diego State
Oregon State-Washington State

The conference games in the MW on Thanksgiving weekend could be:
Hawaii-San Jose State
Nevada-UNLV
New Mexico-Wyoming
New Mexico State-UTEP

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The other thing with Grand Canyon is that they've had internal discussions about adding football and they have money. They could add football to join the Pac-12, and the Pac-12 could consider it because if they had just opened a new stadium for their new FBS team already, they're on the Pac-12's wishlist somewhere near Fresno St and UNLV. They'd probably be the team added before Utah St and the Pac-12 would be at eight right now.

There's no guaranteeing GCU's football program would award scholarships. If they go the non-scholarship route (likely with PFL membership, just like San Diego who will be one of their WCC rivals soon), then they are out as a Pac-12 member.

 

[KevFu]

There's no guaranteeing GCU's football program would award scholarships. If they go the non-scholarship route (likely with PFL membership, just like San Diego who will be one of their WCC rivals soon), then they are out as a Pac-12 member.

Right, of course it would entail a massive/major investment on GCU's part.

The point I was making that if GCU were to commit to going FBS, they would suddenly skyrocket up the "conference realignment depth chart" because of their location.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://sports.yahoo.com/hawaii-to-become-a-full-time-mountain-west-member-in-2026-190630818.html

Hawaii to join MWC fully in 2026, not just football.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

https://sports.yahoo.com/hawaii-to-become-a-full-time-mountain-west-member-in-2026-190630818.html

Hawaii to join MWC fully in 2026, not just football.

I thought the whole point of them being in the Big West was to cut down on travel costs for Olympic sports

 

[Spydey629]

I thought the whole point of them being in the Big West was to cut down on travel costs for Olympic sports

The math changes with full membership to the MWC. I am willing to bet they aren't getting a full share as a football only member (and I don't care enough to look it up at this juncture). That difference more than likely covers the difference of flying to El Paso, TX for cross country instead of Northridge or Bakersfield.


Now that the Mountain West is officially back to a full 8 members, who does the PAC-12 go for? They aren't desperate enough to add New Mexico State... are they?!?!? That's the only domino left out there, outside of adding an FBS program.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

The math changes with full membership to the MWC. I am willing to bet they aren't getting a full share as a football only member (and I don't care enough to look it up at this juncture). That difference more than likely covers the difference of flying to El Paso, TX for cross country instead of Northridge or Bakersfield.


Now that the Mountain West is officially back to a full 8 members, who does the PAC-12 go for? They aren't desperate enough to add New Mexico State... are they?!?!? That's the only domino left out there, outside of adding an FBS program.

I think NMSU goes to the MW, and the Pac-12 lobbies the NCAA to lower the FBS minimum to 7 football members.

 

[tank44]

Now that the Mountain West is officially back to a full 8 members, who does the PAC-12 go for? They aren't desperate enough to add New Mexico State... are they?!?!? That's the only domino left out there, outside of adding an FBS program.

PAC may try for an exemption or extension to get to 8. I think the end game is to get Cal &/or Stanford back. If not then there's a lot of talk it seems for Sacramento State to move up from FCS to FBS and could get in at a reduced rate. Not a sexy pick but increases California reach.

 

[KevFu]

I thought the whole point of them being in the Big West was to cut down on travel costs for Olympic sports

Well, yes, but only kinda. We tend to overrate costs as if airplanes are like taxis. The cost of flights, hotels, busses and food are basically ridiculously similar regardless of where you're going once you hit the airport. But the more time you spend traveling, the worse your legs and mood are; so if you're Hawaii and have to fly through LAX, San Diego and Sacramento to go anywhere else mainland, why not just play the 10 schools near LA, SD, SAC in conference?

It's not so much that Hawai'i was like "Let's leave the WAC for travel savings" as it was "The WAC radically changed over two waves of downgrades and instead of being a good football league with BYU, Utah, San Diego State and UNLV, we're in a league that no longer has FBS football and has Seattle U, UT Arlington, Texas State and Louisiana Tech.

There was no upside to being in the WAC over being in the Big West. There was a large upside to the Big West over the WAC from 2012-present: The logistics of travel were just better in the Big West. Plus they had more history in non-revenue sports with BWC schools (and volleyball IS a revenue sport in Hawaii).

There's once again an advantage to being with Air Force, UTEP, Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV and Nevada (some being schools they went to the WAC to be with, or voted to add to the WAC).

It's mostly about football security. They just can't afford to be an independent. It's less about what they gain joining the MWC but what they avoid potentially losing by not joining the MWC.