Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

[BKarchitect]

I don’t see NDSU doing it.

Who then? Certainly not any of the Missouri Valley schools.

Idaho and their weird little wooden stadium and Boise State right down the road and a history of already not enjoying life in the FBS? I don't think they'd do it.

The only one I could see is Montana and only if they could convince the PAC to take them. They have a pretty large stadium and being in the Western part of the state, the geography for all sports with Boise State, Wazzu and Gonzaga wouldn't be terrible.

But then again - consider that the Grizzlies reportedly have the least subsidized FCS program in the country. Why would they jeopardize that kind of athletic department healthiness on a bet?

 

[GKJ]

Who then? Certainly not any of the Missouri Valley schools.

Idaho and their weird little wooden stadium and Boise State right down the road and a history of already not enjoying life in the FBS? I don't think they'd do it.

The only one I could see is Montana and only if they could convince the PAC to take them. They have a pretty large stadium and being in the Western part of the state, the geography for all sports with Boise State, Wazzu and Gonzaga wouldn't be terrible.

But then again - consider that the Grizzlies reportedly have the least subsidized FCS program in the country. Why would they jeopardize that kind of athletic department healthiness on a bet?

They'd be in a decent position to get more money out of it, the thing I'm not sure of is whether or not they can add the Title IX scholarships. However, our resident Grizz @BigMcLargehuge seems pretty convinced that they can and should be ready to jump to FCS if they want, so if he believes it, then I do too. If I were either of these conferences, that's who I'd want.

 

[The Marquis]

Who then? Certainly not any of the Missouri Valley schools.

Idaho and their weird little wooden stadium and Boise State right down the road and a history of already not enjoying life in the FBS? I don't think they'd do it.

The only one I could see is Montana and only if they could convince the PAC to take them. They have a pretty large stadium and being in the Western part of the state, the geography for all sports with Boise State, Wazzu and Gonzaga wouldn't be terrible.

But then again - consider that the Grizzlies reportedly have the least subsidized FCS program in the country. Why would they jeopardize that kind of athletic department healthiness on a bet?

Where did you find the info that U of Montana has the least subsidized FCS program? I don't doubt it, but that seems like a recipe for success at a higher level, not an inherent risk. They have a very loyal alumni base and a pretty sizeable endowment for an FCS school, outpacing more than half of the Group of 5 conference schools. It's a small school, but has a large loyal following and draws big crowds for FCS, ranking 2nd in the entire FCS in attendance (Montana State was 3rd last year as well). Both Montana schools appear to be in the realm of being ready to go for something bigger as a package deal.

If Montana were a MWC school right now, they'd have the 3rd best attendance (After Fresno and Boise), Montana State would have the 8th best in the conference (out of 13, if they were in it). So they are right there and have nothing to lose except a bunch of money to make it happen. They are in a WAY better position to make that move than Idaho was when they did. WAY better.

That said, Texas State is still probably the best overall bet for the Pac. UNT, UTSA could be good as well, really locking down 3 very large Texas schools, creating a 10 team conference for Football. That said, if none of those work out, if FCS schools are wanting to come up, the Montana Schools are easily the best equipped to do so for the Pac and the cost to the conference, if they were to help make it happen, isn't really all that much compared to the MWC fees.

 

[BKarchitect]

Where did you find the info that U of Montana has the least subsidized FCS program? I don't doubt it, but that seems like a recipe for success at a higher level, not an inherent risk. They have a very loyal alumni base and a pretty sizeable endowment for an FCS school, outpacing more than half of the Group of 5 conference schools. It's a small school, but has a large loyal following and draws big crowds for FCS, ranking 2nd in the entire FCS in attendance (Montana State was 3rd last year as well). Both Montana schools appear to be in the realm of being ready to go for something bigger as a package deal.

If Montana were a MWC school right now, they'd have the 3rd best attendance (After Fresno and Boise), Montana State would have the 8th best in the conference (out of 13, if they were in it). So they are right there and have nothing to lose except a bunch of money to make it happen. They are in a WAY better position to make that move than Idaho was when they did. WAY better.

That said, Texas State is still probably the best overall bet for the Pac. UNT, UTSA could be good as well, really locking down 3 very large Texas schools, creating a 10 team conference for Football. That said, if none of those work out, if FCS schools are wanting to come up, the Montana Schools are easily the best equipped to do so for the Pac and the cost to the conference, if they were to help make it happen, isn't really all that much compared to the MWC fees.

The more I become educated on Montana, the more I'm willing to think they are a different animal than the other Big Sky schools as it relates to potentially moving up. Pretty impressive athletic department for FCS.

 

[The Marquis]

I saw that in 2023 it was $24m. $24m is VERY shy of the expectation of the Pac-12 though. I'm sure they reduced it from the required $60m before the other 10 schools left, but I can't imagine it's as low as $30m now considering I think all the schools they've let in for football have annual athletic budgets over $40m, possibly even $45m. For an FCS program, $24m is a big number but falls shy of nearly every current FBS athletic budget, except a couple of MAC and CUSA schools. It's still a better starting point than almost anybody else in the Big Sky.

For a little dose of reality... of the Schools we've been talking about on here... here are their 2023 athletic budgets (the average for FCS is 19m):

Sacramento State - 45m
Texas State - 40m
UTSA - 44m
UNT - 49m
Montana - 24m
Montana State - 28m
Weber State - 17m

A couple of others with sizeable numbers:

UC Davis - 48m
North Dakota - 33m
North Dakota State - 32m
Cal Poly - 40m


For a comparison here's the new look Pac-7

Oregon State - 98m
Washington State - 90m
San Diego State - 96m
Fresno State - 51m
Boise State - 58m
Utah State - 51m
Colorado State - 64m

I'd imagine with the additional revenue the Montana Schools could get to $40m pretty easily, and Sac State could VERY easily with a stadium renovation and the additional revenue. I wonder what the new minimum budget requirement is for the Pac. I think it was $60 prior to this year, but don't quote me on that.

 

[Blue and Green]

Montana to the Pac is not going to happen. No way.

PAC-State
- Boise State
- Colorado State
- Fresno State
- Oregon State
- San Diego State
- Texas State
- Utah State
- Washington State
—————————
- Gonzaga (BB)
- St. Mary’s (BB)

Pac-State, LOL, I hadn't noticed that before. You must be a state school to join as a full member!

St. Mary's is a solid BB school but really wouldn't add anything to the Pac-State conference. After BYU left the WCC, St. Mary's was really the only BB program that could warm up Gonzaga so there was a rivalry there, but in the Pac there are already multiple programs that are on the same level as St. Mary's.

 

[BKarchitect]

Sounds like Texas State has declined the Mountain West offer. Staying in the Sun Belt unless/until a PAC offer comes along. I think that will happen soon enough. Ridiculously fertile and populated location along I-35 between San Antonio and Austin, fast growing university with an enrollment of 40,000 and counting and they can and have packed their current stadium setup with over 33,000 in recent seasons.

They aren’t long for the Sun Belt. If the PAC doesn’t take them, the AAC will eventually to pair with UTSA.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Sounds like Texas State has declined the Mountain West offer. Staying in the Sun Belt unless/until a PAC offer comes along. I think that will happen soon enough. Ridiculously fertile and populated location along I-35 between San Antonio and Austin, fast growing university with an enrollment of 40,000 and counting and they can and have packed their current stadium setup with over 33,000 in recent seasons.

They aren’t long for the Sun Belt. If the PAC doesn’t take them, the AAC will eventually to pair with UTSA.

The American prefers to have its teams in urban areas. Texas State doesn't quite qualify.

Montana to the Pac is not going to happen. No way.

Pac-State, LOL, I hadn't noticed that before. You must be a state school to join as a full member!

St. Mary's is a solid BB school but really wouldn't add anything to the Pac-State conference. After BYU left the WCC, St. Mary's was really the only BB program that could warm up Gonzaga so there was a rivalry there, but in the Pac there are already multiple programs that are on the same level as St. Mary's.

St. Mary's doesn't want to be in a WCC without Gonzaga.

Gonzaga had been a Big East target at one point. My proposed Big East split along geographic lines should still occur, which would entail the Northeast schools (Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, UConn, Villanova) continuing to be the Big East and adding Duquesne, La Salle, and Saint Joseph's from the A-10 and Iona from the MAAC, while the Midwestern schools (Butler, Creighton, DePaul, Marquette, and Xavier) form a new conference that also includes current A-10 schools Dayton, Loyola (Chicago) and Saint Louis, plus Detroit Mercy and Valparaiso from the Horizon League and MVC, respectively.

 

[BKarchitect]

The American prefers to have its teams in urban areas. Texas State doesn't quite qualify.

I’d argue San Marcos almost qualifies for two large urban areas. It’s closer to Austin than Denton (notable urban area) is to DFW or Boca is to Miami. It’s certainly got a lot more people in a 100 mile radius than Greenville, NC (another…notable urban area?).

Bizarre statement. If the AAC gets raided again, Texas State will absolutely be on their shortlist. Great natural rivalry with UTSA too.

I’m not saying I think they’ll end up in the AAC but I think them turning down the MW is not an indication that Texas State sees the Sun Belt matching their ambitions - rather that they are only going to switch conferences for a true upgrade and that the MW is decidedly not that.

 

[Blue and Green]

St. Mary's doesn't want to be in a WCC without Gonzaga.

Perhaps, but I don't see why the Pac would want St Mary's. Gonzaga draws an audience; the only times that St Mary's draws an audience is when it plays Gonzaga.

 

[GKJ]

Perhaps, but I don't see why the Pac would want St Mary's. Gonzaga draws an audience; the only times that St Mary's draws an audience is when it plays Gonzaga.

They still want to fill out their schedules. The 8-team minimum is needed for football, but while scheduling in basketball is obviously more flexible, they need numbers there as well, and they need them from schools without football.

 

[Blue and Green]

They still want to fill out their schedules. The 8-team minimum is needed for football, but while scheduling in basketball is obviously more flexible, they need numbers there as well, and they need them from schools without football.

I think Grand Canyon makes more sense than St. Mary's if the Pac wants another partial member.

 

[GKJ]

I think Grand Canyon makes more sense than St. Mary's if the Pac wants another partial member.

They’re only just moving into the WCC. They should look at Pepperdine or Loyola Marymount

 

[The Marquis]

They’re only just moving into the WCC. They should look at Pepperdine or Loyola Marymount

That’s my thinking as well. Gonzaga is probably calling their buds.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

God, if Tartleton State moves up to the FBS before the Montana schools I may go crazy.

The f*** is a Tartleton?



As for Montana's athletic budget. That's the burn. I'll try to keep the politics out as much as possible, but the tides have changed in Montana over the past ~10-15 years and, as a result, everything good that I loved about the state has been slashed to all hell for the benefit of a very few. My desire to move back has been pretty well neutered for the time being. Getting that money from the state is just not going to happen. Getting that money from boosters and alumni? It's possible, but it's not a SMU situation where there's a bunch of oil billionaire alumni willing to waste their money on 'em. That said, a move up would definitely get more money from the state, just not enough to bridge the gap by itself and there is supposedly a nest egg in case of move-up.

It is worth noting that Montana's athletic budget is modest in part because its self-sustaining. It's profitable, one of very few profitable athletics programs outside of the P4 that can say that. That's the part that has me worried that they'll remain complacent until the FCS collapses around them. There's been a lot of money spent on facilities and improvements that well outpaces a school with a budget that small or in a conference with Sac State's joke facilities, mind you. It's a lean athletics program, but that's by design. It'd need to grow to compete on the next level, but status quo is profitable and sustainable. It's only the Olympic sports where the budget shows its shortcomings. A move-up would see football and the basketball programs compete and everything else struggle...but that's not far from the status quo of the past however many decades.

 

[BKarchitect]

God, if Tartleton State moves up to the FBS before the Montana schools I may go crazy.

The f*** is a Tartleton?

I imagine something likes this:

 

[Blue and Green]

They’re only just moving into the WCC. They should look at Pepperdine or Loyola Marymount

Grand Canyon is in a sizable market, is growing, has a very large enrolment (albeit, a lot of it online) and is on the rise in basketball (beat St Mary's in the NCAA tournament this year). Just seems like a more desirable addition if they really want to add another non-football program. I could be wrong but I doubt that the Pac aspires to be a strange amalgam of part souped-up MWC football and part Big East Of The West basketball haven for smaller Christian schools. The latter is why the WCC exists. Pepperdine, Loyola, etc., would bring nothing. St. Mary's at least is fairly good in basketball but its fanbase and revenue generation are small-- and what will happen with the program when Randy Bennett calls it quits?

Anyway, we'll see what happens. Pac should be concentrating on getting the eighth full member. Basketball-wise, they got what they really wanted/needed in Gonzaga.

 

[willy702]

Grand Canyon is in a sizable market, is growing, has a very large enrolment (albeit, a lot of it online) and is on the rise in basketball (beat St Mary's in the NCAA tournament this year). Just seems like a more desirable addition if they really want to add another non-football program. I could be wrong but I doubt that the Pac aspires to be a strange amalgam of part souped-up MWC football and part Big East Of The West basketball haven for smaller Christian schools. The latter is why the WCC exists. Pepperdine, Loyola, etc., would bring nothing. St. Mary's at least is fairly good in basketball but its fanbase and revenue generation are small-- and what will happen with the program when Randy Bennett calls it quits?

Anyway, we'll see what happens. Pac should be concentrating on getting the eighth full member. Basketball-wise, they got what they really wanted/needed in Gonzaga.

St Mary's is in a bigger market and has had the best basketball team in its region. Plus the other sports, while limited, are pretty good overall. Enrollment and lack of alumni is a bit of an issue, but the whole East Bay now has no pro teams and Cal has never done well with generating interest in its sports program, something that only gets worse considering most of their rivals are now on the other side of the country. I think SMC has an opportunity to develop a bigger fanbase of area residents who aren't necessarily alumni.

I think Pac needs to add these non-football schools though to make scheduling and conference prestige stronger outside of football. An 8 or even 10-team league for other sports makes less sense. It works for football though because you can get extra paydays in non-conference games. I think they need to get the 8th member lined up for football and then get Zags, St. Mary's, GC and one more non-FB program, maybe LMU for the geographic diversity and market strength. That would leave the MWC in a real bind and make it almost FCS level.

 

[The Marquis]

I think the MWC is going to be fine. Those schools are still going to outspend, outdraw and out fundraise almost every single MAC and CUSA school. Those two confierences are small potatoes by comparison. When it comes to Athletic budgets, the remaining MWC schools are closer to the Pac and AAC than the MAC and CUSA are to the MWC.

 

[PCSPounder]

I think Pac needs to add these non-football schools though to make scheduling and conference prestige stronger outside of football. An 8 or even 10-team league for other sports makes less sense. It works for football though because you can get extra paydays in non-conference games. I think they need to get the 8th member lined up for football and then get Zags, St. Mary's, GC and one more non-FB program, maybe LMU for the geographic diversity and market strength. That would leave the MWC in a real bind and make it almost FCS level.

A wise man on Facebook (sounds like an oxymoron, but I witnessed this myself) said in the last 168 hours that “there are only so many good time slots.” The P2 (that’s the B1G and the SEC for those just dipping their toes here) are in the process of securing most of them. This is why (1) the Pac isn’t going to get $20M/school/year, and (2) why having a bigger conference tempts the law of diminishing returns.

Having Gonzaga does change the equation, and perhaps now we’re talking 10-11 instead of 8-9. But two schools wielding most of the power in this situation are trying to maximize the per school take of the media contract because they need to be healthy enough to slay their own demons.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

If NMSU is also poached by the MW, I see C-USA adding two Eastern Time Zone schools.

Next year, there will be 6 Central Time Zone schools in the conference, and adding two in ETZ allows for the divisions to be divided along time zone lines, as there would then be 6 ETZ schools as well. Furman and Wofford would be nice additions to C-USA.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Sort of relevant

https://x.com/i/web/status/1842755999548985723

Missing the end of the Minnesota game.

 

[The Marquis]

Spite! lol. Is Xfinity run by a Washington State or Oregon State alumni? Haha.

 

[NextBigThing]

Sort of relevant

https://x.com/i/web/status/1842755999548985723

Missing the end of the Minnesota game.

You would never see something like this in the SEC. Big Ten seems like it's stuck in 1999. They'll always play second fiddle to the SEC.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

With Gonzaga departing the WCC, I think the next school that joins that conference will be California Baptist. No Inland Empire or Baptist institution has ever competed in the WCC. CBU would be the first with both distinctions.