Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[Weezeric]

Exact same career ppg and had a much worse year then Cole last year for those who penalize Cole for his year. Yes Cole will get docked some off of it for his injuries but it is a comp that will put upward pressure on the market.

Mercer’s year last year was comparable to Perfetti’s. It was also the worst year of his ELC years and Perfetti’s best. At least that’s what I’d be arguing as the Jets

 

[surixon]

Mercer’s year last year was comparable to Perfetti’s. It was also the worst year of his ELC years and Perfetti’s best. At least that’s what I’d be arguing as the Jets

They can try, but Cole can easily use that logic against the other comps like Byfield and Lundell. I was "much better then Byfield last year and was just as good this year prior to being benched". You can argue anything subjectively to make whatever point you want.

Points almost always are what is used to determine value and Cole has the same ppg as Byfield, Pinto, Mercer and Lundell with worse usage then all of them. His team has more then enough comps on his side here. The Jets have limited comps on their side here.

 

[Buffdog]

They can try, but Cole can easily use that logic against the other comps like Byfield and Lundell. I was "much better then Byfield last year and was just as good this year prior to being benched". You can argue anything subjectively to make whatever point you want.

Points almost always are what is used to determine value and Cole has the same ppg as Byfield, Pinto, Mercer and Lundell with worse usage then all of them. His team has more then enough comps on his side here. The Jets have limited comps on their side here.

He wasn't better than anyone before being benched, which is why he was benched

 

[surixon]

He wasn't better than anyone before being benched, which is why he was benched

Thats a load of crap and you know it. He was 4th on the team in scoring when he got demoted. Are you trying to say a poor 10 game stretch negates a very strong first half and warrents a demotion? If so Mercer's 1 goal in his opening 20 games should have had him benched just like Cole. Byfields 1 goal in last 23 games should have had him riding the pine.

I'm sorry but Bones has a very different idea on handling young players and their slumps then most every other org these days. It's fine if you like the old school approach to things, but most other orgs have moved to a different tactic on this.

 

[Buffdog]

Thats a load of crap and you know it. He was 4th on the team in scoring when he got demoted. Are you trying to say a poor 10 game stretch negates a very strong first half and warrents a demotion? If so Mercer's 1 goal in his opening 20 games should have had him benched just like Cole. Byfields 1 goal in last 23 games should have had him riding the pine.

I'm sorry but Bones has a very different idea on handling young players and their slumps then most every other org these days. It's fine if you like the old school approach to things, but most other orgs have moved to a different tactic on this.

That's not true. He went a month of not producing before his icetime was cut

Cole Perfetti 2023-24 Stats per Game - NHL - ESPN

The 2023-24 NHL season stats per game for Cole Perfetti of the Winnipeg Jets on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

 

[Weezeric]

Thats a load of crap and you know it. He was 4th on the team in scoring when he got demoted. Are you trying to say a poor 10 game stretch negates a very strong first half and warrents a demotion? If so Mercer's 1 goal in his opening 20 games should have had him benched just like Cole. Byfields 1 goal in last 23 games should have had him riding the pine.

I'm sorry but Bones has a very different idea on handling young players and their slumps then most every other org these days. It's fine if you like the old school approach to things, but most other orgs have moved to a different tactic on this.

It’s almost as if Perfetti had two seasons in a row where he got hurt and the Jets didn’t want to push him..

Byfield had 9 points over those 23 games. Perfetti went two months, 23 games with only 2 assists.

 

[surixon]

That's not true. He went a month of not producing before his icetime was cut

Cole Perfetti 2023-24 Stats per Game - NHL - ESPN

The 2023-24 NHL season stats per game for Cole Perfetti of the Winnipeg Jets on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Did you count the games? I was one off it was 11 and not 10 games of not producing. Still my point still stands that an 11 game sample where the puck doesn't go in shouldn't be given more consideration then a 40 game sample where he scores incredibly well. You are giving far too much weight to a sample size of 1/5 the total body of work. All players have poor stretches. We've seen our Vezina caliber goalie go ice cold for stretches such as last year's playoffs. It happens to even the best. My point was not that he didn't have a cold stretch, he did, but other young players do as well such has Byfield and Mercer and their coaches handled their slumps differently.

 

[surixon]

It’s almost as if Perfetti had two seasons in a row where he got hurt and the Jets didn’t want to push him..

Byfield had 9 points over those 23 games. Perfetti went two months, 23 games with only 2 assists.

Sure but Byfield was also strapped to the hip of Kopitar on the top line that entire time. Much easier to bounce assists off the ass of the teams best players with 17 or so minutes of ice time then it is to bounce assists off of fourth liners in 8 to 10 minutes of ice time.

Im sure Cole would have bounced some more assists off Scheifele and KC's ass too during his slump if they had elected to use a similar method to try to get him going.

 

[Buffdog]

Did you count the games? I was one off it was 11 and not 10 games of not producing. Still my point still stands that an 11 game sample where the puck doesn't go in shouldn't be given more consideration then a 40 game sample where he scores incredibly well. You are giving far too much weight to a sample size of 1/5 the total body of work. All players have poor stretches. We've seen our Vezina caliber goalie go ice cold for stretches such as last year's playoffs. It happens to even the best. My point was not that he didn't have a cold stretch, he did, but other young players do as well such has Byfield and Mercer and their coaches handled their slumps differently.

That's a matter of opinion. Recency bias plays a role, as does context. Cole is a young player with a history of starting strong then being injured and/or production tailing off

And his cold snap included 2 assists over 14 games before his icetime was cut... in which his GF% was 17%

In short, he deserved to be demoted. Once he was, he did nothing over the next 8 games to warrant a promotion back up the line up (one assist and GF% of 33%)

If those were Iafallo or Kupari's numbers, you wouldn't be arguing the point

 

[DRW204]

Did you count the games? I was one off it was 11 and not 10 games of not producing. Still my point still stands that an 11 game sample where the puck doesn't go in shouldn't be given more consideration then a 40 game sample where he scores incredibly well. You are giving far too much weight to a sample size of 1/5 the total body of work. All players have poor stretches. We've seen our Vezina caliber goalie go ice cold for stretches such as last year's playoffs. It happens to even the best. My point was not that he didn't have a cold stretch, he did, but other young players do as well such has Byfield and Mercer and their coaches handled their slumps differently.

OK so using same logic, Perfetti had a V hot November and the rest of his year was pretty pedestrian, while playing a majority of it in the top 6 still

How often do you balance the weight of his hot November vs rest of year?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Perfetan deserves $2M for the first half of seasons and about $200K for the second half when he dissappears!

So much for my prediction of a kinder and supportive Sip this season

 

[Buffdog]

OK so using same logic, Perfetti had a V hot November and the rest of his year was pretty pedestrian, while playing a majority of it in the top 6 still

How often do you balance the weight of his hot November vs rest of year?

Exactly. Kinda like the poster who was arguing that Schief is still a top C based on his stats from 2019

The difference is that schief's decline would be tough to reverse just based on the physiology of aging, but Cole has all the physical tools to turn a cold snap around... but, as a young player, does he have the mental tools? That's the unknown that led to Bones demoting him (IMO). There was no guarantee that Cole was going to re-find his mojo regardless of how much time was gifted to him in the top 6

 

[surixon]

That's a matter of opinion. Recency bias plays a role, as does context. Cole is a young player with a history of starting strong then being injured and/or production tailing off

And his cold snap included 2 assists over 14 games before his icetime was cut... in which his GF% was 17%

In short, he deserved to be demoted. Once he was, he did nothing over the next 8 games to warrant a promotion back up the line up (one assist and GF% of 33%)

If those were Iafallo or Kupari's numbers, you wouldn't be arguing the point

Funny you bring up Iafallo, he got a promotion to the top 6 after a stretch of games on the fourth where he produced 2 points in 20 games. By that logic Cole should have earned one with 2 points in 12.

We aren't gong to see eye to eye on this, but the notion that a skilled player can play their way up from the fourth line the way this org has run their fourth line should have been put to bed ages ago. Not one skilled player has shown well on our fourth. Not Ehlers when he was there, not KC when he was put there as a rookie and not Cole last year.

When Bones put him back in the top 6 he had 6 points in his final 5 games. Perhaps a different method would have served the player and the org better.

 

[Buffdog]

Funny you bring up Iafallo, he got a promotion to the top 6 after a stretch of games on the fourth where he produced 2 points in 20 games. By that logic Cole should have earned one with 2 points in 12.

We aren't gong to see eye to eye on this, but the notion that a skilled player can play their way up from the fourth line the way this org has run their fourth line should have been put to bed ages ago. Not one skilled player has shown well on our fourth. Not Ehlers when he was there, not KC when he was put there as a rookie and not Cole last year.

When Bones put him back in the top 6 he had 6 points in his final 5 games. Perhaps a different method would have served the player and the org better.

So his method worked lol

In terms of Cole vs Iafallo, I understand what you're saying... but I think it's a matter of roles and expectations

When Iafallo is put in the top 6, his role is not to produce points like Cole's. He's a grinder and puck hound. If he does his job correctly, it looks different that Cole doing his

Also, with Iafallo, Bones knew exactly what he's going to get from him.. aka consistency

Now... if Iafallo stops performing HIS role consistently, he should be demoted also. But that's not based on point production, as I mentionned

 

[surixon]

So his method worked lol

In terms of Cole vs Iafallo, I understand what you're saying... but I think it's a matter of roles and expectations

When Iafallo is put in the top 6, his role is not to produce points like Cole's. He's a grinder and puck hound. If he does his job correctly, it looks different that Cole doing his

Also, with Iafallo, Bones knew exactly what he's gojg to get from him.. aka consistency

Now... if iafallo stops performing HIS role consistently, he should be demoted also. But that's not based on point production, as I mentionned

I personally would have sat Cole for one or two games and put him right back in the top 6 to see if a mental reset would have gotten him back on track.

Playing him in a role he's not suited for on the fourth imo prolonged the slump as he lost more confidence.

The point is could they have snapped his slump earlier and then not needed to go out and waste assets on a non factor vet in Toffoli.

Also the plan wasn't to put Cole back in the top 6. Our coach was forced into it due to a 6 game lossing streak where his trusted vets shit the bed.

 

[Buffdog]

I personally would have sat Cole for one or two games and put him right back in the top 6 to see if a mental reset would have gotten him back on track.

Playing him in a role he's not suited for on the fourth imo prolonged the slump as he lost more confidence.

The point is could they have snapped his slump earlier and then not needed to go out and waste assets on a non factor vet in Toffoli.

Also the plan wasn't to put Cole back in the top 6. Our coach was forced into it due to a 6 game lossing streak where his trusted vets shit the bed.

Those are all reasonable viewpoints

 

[DRW204]

Exactly. Kinda like the poster who was arguing that Schief is still a top C based on his stats from 2019

The difference is that schief's decline would be tough to reverse just based on the physiology of aging, but Cole has all the physical tools to turn a cold snap around... but, as a young player, does he have the mental tools? That's the unknown that led to Bones demoting him (IMO). There was no guarantee that Cole was going to re-find his mojo regardless of how much time was gifted to him in the top 6

My comment was more on you being accused of concentrating on 1/5th of the year when the fact that his highly productive November, which was about 1/5th of the year, doesn't get viewed similarly. It was more of a hot streak compared to the overall production of the year.

Month/gp/ppg

Oct/9gp/0.67
Nov/13gp/0.92
Dec/13gp/0.38
Jan/12gp/0.58
Feb/11gp/0
Mar/8gp/0.25
Apr/5gp/1.2

So up until March he had a V strong November the rest was ranging from bad-to-solid, and a couple of V productive games vs LA and VAN in April when he got back in the lineup. Majority of the year he was a top 6er.

You can cherry pick or seek out stats to help paint whatever story though especially with tighter sample of games.

IMO I think he shouldn't have been benched though. But the way the Jets use their lines, and Arniel mentioned this too recently, it's essentially top 6 or bust for Perfetti. If he played like this near hall of fame level center like you-know-who tells us every year, maybe they don't acquire Monahan. Maybe if he actually produced at top 6 wing at a respectable clip for months on end, he'd have stayed higher in the lineup vs Toffoli

 

[Bigfish]

Funny you bring up Iafallo, he got a promotion to the top 6 after a stretch of games on the fourth where he produced 2 points in 20 games. By that logic Cole should have earned one with 2 points in 12.

We aren't gong to see eye to eye on this, but the notion that a skilled player can play their way up from the fourth line the way this org has run their fourth line should have been put to bed ages ago. Not one skilled player has shown well on our fourth. Not Ehlers when he was there, not KC when he was put there as a rookie and not Cole last year.

When Bones put him back in the top 6 he had 6 points in his final 5 games. Perhaps a different method would have served the player and the org better.

6 points, including 4 goals, in his last 5 games only to be benched for the playoffs for Gus bus and an AHL scrub. Brilliant coaching and a good message to send to a young player. And people wonder why he's holding out.

 

[Buffdog]

My comment was more on you being accused of concentrating on 1/5th of the year when the fact that his highly productive November, which was about 1/5th of the year, doesn't get viewed similarly. It was more of a hot streak compared to the overall production of the year.

Month/gp/ppg

Oct/9gp/0.67
Nov/13gp/0.92
Dec/13gp/0.38
Jan/12gp/0.58
Feb/11gp/0
Mar/8gp/0.25
Apr/5gp/1.2

So up until March he had a V strong November the rest was ranging from bad-to-solid, and a couple of V productive games vs LA and VAN in April when he got back in the lineup. Majority of the year he was a top 6er.

You can cherry pick or seek out stats to help paint whatever story though especially with tighter sample of games.

IMO I think he shouldn't have been benched though. But the way the Jets use their lines, and Arniel mentioned this too recently, it's essentially top 6 or bust for Perfetti. If he played like this near hall of fame level center like you-know-who tells us every year, maybe they don't acquire Monahan. Maybe if he actually produced at top 6 wing at a respectable clip for months on end, he'd have stayed higher in the lineup vs Toffoli

I think that the last part of a players game to emerge in the NHL is consistency

Cole also had a strange path to the show because of covid. Usually, a player:

1. Learns to produce in the AHL
2. Learns to produce consistently in the AHL
3. Learns to produce in the NHL
4. Learns to produce consistently in the NHL

Cole is at step 4, which is exactly where he should be at his age

 

[Weezeric]

6 points, including 4 goals, in his last 5 games only to be benched for the playoffs for Gus bus and an AHL scrub. Brilliant coaching and a good message to send to a young player. And people wonder why he's holding out.

Chibrikov and Lambert were a point per game at the end of last season. Should they have been in the playoff lineup also?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mercer now inked so I think that is it for his peers. I'm not sure Chevy will like the 3 year 12 million comp he inked though. I doubt Chevy would want to walk Cole 1 year before UFA.

If it turns out to be a bridge it is 1 or 2 years. I'd guess probably 2.

 

[DRW204]

I think that the last part of a players game to emerge in the NHL is consistency

Cole also had a strange path to the show because of covid. Usually, a player:

1. Learns to produce in the AHL
2. Learns to produce consistently in the AHL
3. Learns to produce in the NHL
4. Learns to produce consistently in the NHL

Cole is at step 4, which is exactly where he should be at his age

Sure. But the problem is many on here have their own massive expectations with prospects and want to call them the next star or whatnot. And if said prospect doesn't hit those feats, it's the organization's or everyone else's fault. When possibly, the expectations created are the ones that are way off base.

You can take a look back in this thread, ppl mentioning perfetti as a star already.

Now I don't know who you think of when the term nhl star fwds get brought up, but is it 40ish pt players

 

[Buffdog]

Sure. But the problem is many on here have their own massive expectations with prospects and want to call them the next star or whatnot. And if said prospect doesn't hit those feats, it's the organization's or everyone else's fault. When possibly, the expectations created are the ones that are way off base.

You can take a look back in this thread, ppl mentioning perfetti as a star already.

Now I don't know who you think of when the term nhl star fwds get brought up, but is it 40ish pt players

Agree 100%

With Cole, I think that the high expectations come from draft position, junior production and flashes of his talent at the NHL level

Based on development trajectories, he's in a great spot. But you're right, people are already treating him like a finished product

A lot of that goes on around here

 

[surixon]

I think that the last part of a players game to emerge in the NHL is consistency

Cole also had a strange path to the show because of covid. Usually, a player:

1. Learns to produce in the AHL
2. Learns to produce consistently in the AHL
3. Learns to produce in the NHL
4. Learns to produce consistently in the NHL

Cole is at step 4, which is exactly where he should be at his age

I don't disagree with this and imo COVID threw a big wrench into things as well.

I think we're some disagree is in the development methods used. I've said that he's a year behind Jarvis in development due to his injuries.

Jarvis was kept in the top 6 to work through his slump the year before last. Cole got the heavy handed approach by his coach. We Shall see this year if that approach bears fruit like how the carrot approach did with Jarvis.

 

[Bigfish]

Chibrikov and Lambert were a point per game at the end of last season. Should they have been in the playoff lineup also?

They should have been before Gus bus and AJF.