Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[scelaton]

I don't see too much to be fussed about yet. A deal is going to get done and this uncertainty will be in the rear-view mirror soon enough. If it is a bridge, the amount is less important than the playing time Cole receives over the next two years, so Arniel is a more important factor than Chevy, long term.

One possible tactic (and I am purely speculating) is that Chevy is holding fast to a low-end bridge offer to entice Cole to sign a longer deal at a fair price. If he plays to his potential, that fair price would be a steal in a few years.

I am not concerned that he is too small or slow to be an NHL star, if--and if it's a big IF--he can stay healthy. For some reason I get Dougy Gilmour vibes with Perfetti, another player who was thought too small to be a star...until he was.

 

[Buffdog]

Over his first three years, Perfetti is pacing almost identical to #55. 43.9 PPG for Perfetti, 44.2 for Scheifele.

As a 20 year old rookie he was on pace for 48 points.

I don't know why you dislike him so much, but Perfetti still has a ton of untapped potential.

Pacing only gets so much weight

I can run at a 6:00/mile pace, but not for very far

Doesn't mean that I have a good 10K time

The factors that forced him off that pace need to be accounted for also

 

[Weezeric]

Over his first three years, Perfetti is pacing almost identical to #55. 43.9 PPG for Perfetti, 44.2 for Scheifele.

As a 20 year old rookie he was on pace for 48 points.

I don't know why you dislike him so much, but Perfetti still has a ton of untapped potential.

And they’re both 6’3 centers!!

 

[cneely]

Pacing only gets so much weight

I can run at a 6:00/mile pace, but not for very far

Doesn't mean that I have a good 10K time

The factors that forced him off that pace need to be accounted for also

They're similar factors as those that force most youngsters off their paces. Certainly the same ones that forced 55 off his pace. Scheifele didn't reach 50 points until his 22-23 year old season.

And they’re both 6’3 centers!!

Perfetti isn't a 6'3" center, but I'd argue he should be a center and his defensive play is generally better than Scheifele.

 

[DRW204]

Over his first three years, Perfetti is pacing almost identical to #55. 43.9 PPG for Perfetti, 44.2 for Scheifele.

As a 20 year old rookie he was on pace for 48 points.

I don't know why you dislike him so much, but Perfetti still has a ton of untapped potential.

how representative is comparing 40+ pts back then vs now?
in 14-15 it was 127 players hit 40+ pts
in 23-24 it was 198 players hit 40+ pts

expansion did help give players more opportunity, but not the tune to a 70 player increase.

in their contract years; perfetti fishined 208th in scoring, scheifele 36th with 61 pts. you can try to minimize scheifele all you want, but at the time his scoring at was seen in a much higher tier given the state of the league. 61 pts in 23-24 wouldn't even be in the top-100.

 

[MelikeJets]

I don't see too much to be fussed about yet. A deal is going to get done and this uncertainty will be in the rear-view mirror soon enough. If it is a bridge, the amount is less important than the playing time Cole receives over the next two years, so Arniel is a more important factor than Chevy, long term.

One possible tactic (and I am purely speculating) is that Chevy is holding fast to a low-end bridge offer to entice Cole to sign a longer deal at a fair price. If he plays to his potential, that fair price would be a steal in a few years.

I am not concerned that he is too small or slow to be an NHL star, if--and if it's a big IF--he can stay healthy. For some reason I get Dougy Gilmour vibes with Perfetti, another player who was thought too small to be a star...until he was.

If he turns into another Gilmour type player then we hit the jackpot.

 

[Buffdog]

They're similar factors as those that force most youngsters off their paces. Certainly the same ones that forced 55 off his pace. Scheifele didn't reach 50 points until his 22-23 year old season.


Perfetti isn't a 6'3" center, but I'd argue he should be a center and his defensive play is generally better than Scheifele.

schief and Cole scored at similar clips in their D+4 seasons, both playing in the NHL

It was in Schief's D+5 and D+6 where he took off to over PPG

Coming off his ELC (like Cole now), schief put up 61 points in 71 games as a centre. He signed an 8 year deal worth 8.39% of the cap

Coming off his last year of ELC, Cole put up 38 points in the same number of games. An 8 deal worth 8.39% of the cap now would be an AAV of 7.38M. He hasn't earned that

If you're looking for a historical comp for Cole, don't look at Schief.

 

[cneely]

how representative is comparing 40+ pts back then vs now?
in 14-15 it was 127 players hit 40+ pts
in 23-24 it was 198 players hit 40+ pts

expansion did help give players more opportunity, but not the tune to a 70 player increase.

in their contract years; perfetti fishined 208th in scoring, scheifele 36th with 61 pts. you can try to minimize scheifele all you want, but at the time his scoring at was seen in a much higher tier given the state of the league. 61 pts in 23-24 wouldn't even be in the top-100.

1) A lot of factors go into comparing players, making it difficult. Quality of team usage, etc.
2) Scheifele didn't hit 60 points (or even 50 for that matter) until his D+4. That would be this season for Perfetti.

I'm not trying to minimize Scheifele at all. I think he's a really good player. I'm trying to understand why some on here are disrespecting what Perfetti has done so far and want to show a really talented youngster with a lot of potential, the door.

 

[cneely]

schief and Cole scored at similar clips in their D+4 seasons, both playing in the NHL

It was in Schief's D+5 and D+6 where he took off to over PPG

Coming off his ELC (like Cole now), schief put up 61 points in 71 games as a centre. He signed an 8 year deal worth 8.39% of the cap

Coming off his last year of ELC, Cole put up 38 points in the same number of games. An 8 deal worth 8.39% of the cap now would be an AAV of 7.38M. He hasn't earned that

If you're looking for a historical comp for Cole, don't look at Schief.

I think you're a year ahead. I'm not sure about contract status, but Scheifele was 22 turning 23 when he put up 61 points.

That would be this coming year for Perfetti.

 

[Huffer]

 

[macmaroon]

Pacing only gets so much weight

I can run at a 6:00/mile pace, but not for very far

Doesn't mean that I have a good 10K time

The factors that forced him off that pace need to be accounted for also

I've got a T-shirt for that...

 

[surixon]

I think you're a year ahead. I'm not sure about contract status, but Scheifele was 22 turning 23 when he put up 61 points.

That would be this coming year for Perfetti.

You are correct. Mark did it in his third NHL season but he didn't start full time in the NHL until his draft plus 3 season. Cole made the NHL his draft plus 2.

Mark broke out his draft plus 5 and Cole will be entering his draft plus 5 this season.

A big reason for Mark's breakout was the long term injury to Little which pushed him into the 1C role with unit 1 pp time. Usage plays a crucial role in points and Mark got a boost due to the opportunity.

 

[DRW204]

1) A lot of factors go into comparing players, making it difficult. Quality of team usage, etc.
2) Scheifele didn't hit 60 points (or even 50 for that matter) until his D+4. That would be this season for Perfetti.

I'm not trying to minimize Scheifele at all. I think he's a really good player. I'm trying to understand why some on here are disrespecting what Perfetti has done so far and want to show a really talented youngster with a lot of potential, the door.

1) if a lot of factors go into it: why even bring up scheifele when it was entirely different state of the team and the league?
2) ok so are you comparing the two without factors or not?

ppl are looking at it from the POV of being their contract years. scheifele broke out in his & Perfetti disappointed. i don't think majority of people are disrespecting, but it's moreso the push-back on some of these comparisons when there's more to it than solely looking at box-score point totals as you've suggested.

 

[KingBogo]

1) A lot of factors go into comparing players, making it difficult. Quality of team usage, etc.
2) Scheifele didn't hit 60 points (or even 50 for that matter) until his D+4. That would be this season for Perfetti.

I'm not trying to minimize Scheifele at all. I think he's a really good player. I'm trying to understand why some on here are disrespecting what Perfetti has done so far and want to show a really talented youngster with a lot of potential, the door.

I get the point you are making, but I think the biggest difference between Scheifele and Perfetti going into their 2nd contracts, is Scheifele had made nice progress year over year during his ELC ending year 3 with 61 points in 71 games, and had pretty much locked down the future #1 center role. While Perfetti is a year younger, he had a setback year in his 3rd ELC season which has added a lot more uncertainty to what his future may look like. You can argue it was usage, which I think is a valid argument, but his play did stagnate to some extent. I still think Perfetti is going to be an important part of our future, but at this point it is really hard to get a handle on how important.

 

[cneely]

1) if a lot of factors go into it: why even bring up scheifele when it was entirely different state of the team and the league?
2) ok so are you comparing the two without factors or not?

ppl are looking at it from the POV of being their contract years. scheifele broke out in his & Perfetti disappointed. i don't think majority of people are disrespecting, but it's moreso the push-back on some of these comparisons when there's more to it than solely looking at box-score point totals as you've suggested.

1) I just grabbed Scheifele as one example. There are a lot of successful players in the NHL who were similar to Perfetti in their first 3 years.
2) That's above my pay grade

You're comparing apples to older apples. Again, Scheifele didn't break 50 points until his D+5. Perfetti isn't even there yet.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I don't see too much to be fussed about yet. A deal is going to get done and this uncertainty will be in the rear-view mirror soon enough. If it is a bridge, the amount is less important than the playing time Cole receives over the next two years, so Arniel is a more important factor than Chevy, long term.

One possible tactic (and I am purely speculating) is that Chevy is holding fast to a low-end bridge offer to entice Cole to sign a longer deal at a fair price. If he plays to his potential, that fair price would be a steal in a few years.

I am not concerned that he is too small or slow to be an NHL star, if--and if it's a big IF--he can stay healthy. For some reason I get Dougy Gilmour vibes with Perfetti, another player who was thought too small to be a star...until he was.

Oh you… and your balanced views

 

[cneely]

I get the point you are making, but I think the biggest difference between Scheifele and Perfetti going into their 2nd contracts, is Scheifele had made nice progress year over year during his ELC ending year 3 with 61 points in 71 games, and had pretty much locked down the future #1 center role. While Perfetti is a year younger, he had a setback year in his 3rd ELC season which has added a lot more uncertainty to what his future may look like. You can argue it was usage, which I think is a valid argument, but his play did stagnate to some extent. I still think Perfetti is going to be an important part of our future, but at this point it is really hard to get a handle on how important.

That's fair, and should factor in, but some of the comments I'm reading on here are blowing me away.

The Jets have been looking for a legit number 2 center pretty much since Little went down. You've got one here (or potentially have one here) and some posters want to play hardball with a kid who has done everything asked of him.

I'm not saying he should be getting what Schiefele did, but that Dawson Mercer ish bridge is in the ball park to me.

 

[Moloch]

4 years from now when Cole is a consistent PPG player and has a sick porno stache we're going to collectively refer to this era as "Perfetti Purgatory"

 

[surixon]

I get the point you are making, but I think the biggest difference between Scheifele and Perfetti going into their 2nd contracts, is Scheifele had made nice progress year over year during his ELC ending year 3 with 61 points in 71 games, and had pretty much locked down the future #1 center role. While Perfetti is a year younger, he had a setback year in his 3rd ELC season which has added a lot more uncertainty to what his future may look like. You can argue it was usage, which I think is a valid argument, but his play did stagnate to some extent. I still think Perfetti is going to be an important part of our future, but at this point it is really hard to get a handle on how important.

All of which is likely why they are having a hard time with this contract. I'm sure both parties have very different ideas on how the back half of last year should be factored into his next deal.

In the end Chevy will get what he wants on it and it will be up to Cole to excel over the next two seasons and earn a massive pay day.

 

[Buffdog]

I think you're a year ahead. I'm not sure about contract status, but Scheifele was 22 turning 23 when he put up 61 points.

That would be this coming year for Perfetti.

You're right, I did a poor job articulating myself

What I meant to say was that if Cole were to put up 61 in 71 NEXT year, then he'd be worth what schief signed for. But you can't give him thr same contract unless he's done that

Until, then, he's worth what a guy who put up 38 in 71 is worth (albeit in his D+4 instead of his D+5)

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I'm trying to understand why some on here are disrespecting what Perfetti has done so far and want to show a really talented youngster with a lot of potential, the door.

I don't think anyone is doing that though.

Many remember not being entirely sure what Scheifele was going to be until he actually became it. Same is likely true with Perfetti. But I don't think anyone in the org wants to alienate to a young offensive player with upside who seems happy to be here.

 

[cneely]

I don't think anyone is doing that though.

Many remember not being entirely sure what Scheifele was going to be until he actually became it. Same is likely true with Perfetti. But I don't think anyone in the org wants to alienate to a young offensive player with upside who seems happy to be here.

"Maybe he needs to sit out a year. Maybe he needs a team who is willing to pay that tax. I'm glad it's not the Jets."

Not many, but there are.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

"Maybe he needs to sit out a year. Maybe he needs a team who is willing to pay that tax. I'm glad it's not the Jets."

Not many, but there are.

Fair enough, I may have missed those posts in this thread.

 

[KingBogo]

All of which is likely why they are having a hard time with this contract. I'm sure both parties have very different ideas on how the back half of last year should be factored into his next deal.

In the end Chevy will get what he wants on it and it will be up to Cole to excel over the next two seasons and earn a massive pay day.

Hopefully there is enough give each way so everyone feels good about the deal. 2 X $3.5 M with year 1 at $2.5 and year 2 at $4.5 to Guarantee the next qualifying offer seems fair.

 

[Weezeric]

Hopefully there is enough give each way so everyone feels good about the deal. 2 X $3.5 M with year 1 at $2.5 and year 2 at $4.5 to Guarantee the next qualifying offer seems fair.

Who’s the other 38 point winger who had a 4.5M qualifying offer at the end of their 2nd contract?