Player Discussion: Cole Perfetti 10th OA pick

[LowLefty]

Hopefully there is enough give each way so everyone feels good about the deal. 2 X $3.5 M with year 1 at $2.5 and year 2 at $4.5 to Guarantee the next qualifying offer seems fair.

That seems fair - let him show us what he can do over the next 2 seasons and that amount of money isn't going to have a huge impact on the Jets and their cap.
IMO, the next two are what is really important -

 

[KingBogo]

Who’s the other 38 point winger who had a 4.5M qualifying offer at the end of their 2nd contract?

It doesn’t really matter as you have to assume Perfetti will be worth more than on his long term deal coming out of the bridge deal.

 

[Buffdog]

Who’s the other 38 point winger who had a 4.5M qualifying offer at the end of their 2nd contract?

Do you think he'll still be a 38 point winger after two more seasons? I don't

 

[surixon]

Who’s the other 38 point winger who had a 4.5M qualifying offer at the end of their 2nd contract?

Kotkanami had a $6 million qualifer on his second deal after a 20 point season. Sure it was an offer sheet but point stands.

 

[Weezeric]

Do you think he'll still be a 38 point winger after two more seasons? I don't

I don’t either, but do you think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that he suffers more injuries that affect his production? Or has a long stretch of failing to produce? He has yet to have a consistent season. If Perfetti wanted to sign the same deal as Lundell, sure there is a level of risk reward there. In a two year deal, it’s all risk for the Jets and all reward for Perfetti.

 

[surixon]

I don’t either, but do you think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that he suffers more injuries that affect his production? Or has a long stretch of failing to produce? He has yet to have a consistent season. If Perfetti wanted to sign the same deal as Lundell, sure there is a level of risk reward there. In a two year deal, it’s all risk for the Jets and all reward for Perfetti.

If you don't believe in the player then just trade him now then. That is essentially what your saying if your trying to build in contingencies like that over what if scenarios.

If he's not worth the qualifying offer Chevy can walk away or trade him during year two.

Also if you play real hard ball on this deal and Cole breaks out in a massive way do you think he's going to do the Jets any favors when he has the hammer in negotiations. No he won't.

 

[Buffdog]

I don’t either, but do you think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that he suffers more injuries that affect his production? Or has a long stretch of failing to produce? He has yet to have a consistent season. If Perfetti wanted to sign the same deal as Lundell, sure there is a level of risk reward there. In a two year deal, it’s all risk for the Jets and all reward for Perfetti.

Anything is possible... he could get injured or regress... but I don't see signs for that

Even if he does plateau, 4.5M isn't a crazy QO. I think Meier and Labanc (maybe?) had ridiculous ones.

I can't envision a likely scenario where Cole isn't worth at least that much after two more seasons

 

[DRW204]

1) I just grabbed Scheifele as one example. There are a lot of successful players in the NHL who were similar to Perfetti in their first 3 years.
2) That's above my pay grade

You're comparing apples to older apples. Again, Scheifele didn't break 50 points until his D+5. Perfetti isn't even there yet.

i think you're really oversimplifying reference case projecting using 1 player as a sole example. especially w/o considering context of teams or the league. you can probably find examples of players that hit X amount of points in Draft+Y year, and their career patterns or trends are all different. not to mention this differences in era in scoring which is huge. 139 players hit 50 pts last year, 97 hit it in 15-16. if he hits 50 pts is not in the same tier as when scheifele did & then ignoring Scheifele playing Center vs Perfetti at Wing.

this will be perfetti's D+5 year right, so we'll see if he hits the equivalent of being a top 35 NHL scorer and team's 1C like scheifele was. but on the basis of a contract which is what i believe most are arguing, it will be a combo of his stats to-date along w/ future projections, and going into negotiations, his contract year (which usually i think in sports gets a little more weight just imo) + position on the team was less than scheifele's at the time.

 

[Weezeric]

If you don't believe in the player then just trade him now then. That is essentially what your saying if your trying to build in contingencies like that over what if scenarios.

If he's not worth the qualifying offer Chevy can walk away or trade him during year two.

Also if you play real hard ball on this deal and Cole breaks out in a massive way do you think he's going to do the Jets any favors when he has the hammer in negotiations. No he won't.

Are you under the impression that the player will do the team favours if he has all the leverage?

 

[surixon]

Are you under the impression that the player will do the team favours if he has all the leverage?

Yes I am. Not every player takes every penny they can get. Some like Crosby leave money on the table to ice competitive teams because they view winning and loyalty to the org as important.

Helle likely left cash on the table last contract.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

If he turns into another Gilmour type player then we hit the jackpot.

Gilmour-type player has more than one meaning. Babysitters, you have been warned.

 

[cneely]

i think you're really oversimplifying reference case projecting using 1 player as a sole example. especially w/o considering context of teams or the league. you can probably find examples of players that hit X amount of points in Draft+Y year, and their career patterns or trends are all different. not to mention this differences in era in scoring which is huge. 139 players hit 50 pts last year, 97 hit it in 15-16. if he hits 50 pts is not in the same tier as when scheifele did & then ignoring Scheifele playing Center vs Perfetti at Wing.

this will be perfetti's D+5 year right, so we'll see if he hits the equivalent of being a top 35 NHL scorer and team's 1C like scheifele was. but on the basis of a contract which is what i believe most are arguing, it will be a combo of his stats to-date along w/ future projections, and going into negotiations, his contract year (which usually i think in sports gets a little more weight just imo) + position on the team was less than scheifele's at the time.

I think you're reading too much into it

I don't suspect Perfetti is ever going to be a top 35 offensive player (although it wouldn't blow me away either). I just wonder how many thought 55 was a dud after 3 years.

 

[TS Quint]

Over his first three years, Perfetti is pacing almost identical to #55. 43.9 PPG for Perfetti, 44.2 for Scheifele.

As a 20 year old rookie he was on pace for 48 points.

I don't know why you dislike him so much, but Perfetti still has a ton of untapped potential.

Why do I dislike him? I’m not having a popularity contest, I’m talking about his contract.

You can’t be serious with the Scheifele comparable. He’s a centre that put up 61 points in 71 and 39 points in his last 37 games in his contract year. Not even close.

 

[Weezeric]

Why do I dislike him? I’m not having a popularity contest, I’m talking about his contract.

You can’t be serious with the Scheifele comparable. He’s a centre that put up 61 points in 71 and 39 points in his last 37 games in his contract year. Not even close.

But you see, if Bones was just a little nicer to Perfetti, he would’ve been a point per game!

 

[cneely]

Why do I dislike him? I’m not having a popularity contest, I’m talking about his contract.

You can’t be serious with the Scheifele comparable. He’s a centre that put up 61 points in 71 and 39 points in his last 37 games in his contract year. Not even close.

He has virtually the same PPG as 55 had as his age. I remember people calling Scheifele Bambi and writing him off too.

 

[TS Quint]

He has virtually the same PPG as 55 had as his age. I remember people calling Scheifele Bambi and writing him off too.

And that’s why you don’t put the same weight into year one as you do year 3 like you are doing.

 

[Weezeric]

He has virtually the same PPG as 55 had as his age. I remember people calling Scheifele Bambi and writing him off too.

Namestnikov and Perfetti had nearly identical points per 60 at 5v5 last year. Should they have the same contract?

 

[cneely]

Namestnikov and Perfetti had nearly identical points per 60 at 5v5 last year. Should they have the same contract?

Do you think they have the same potential for improvement?

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Either you are banking on him putting up good number 50 to 60 points a year and you want him long term on what would be a cheaper deal like you did with Scheif/Connor/Ehlers/Morrissey or He is banking on producing more or you don't think he will produce more and sign a short term deal and see what happens.

I think if he were to play a lot of 1st unit PP time this year and stay healthy it wouldn't shock me to see him put up some numbers. His offensive skill is very elite.

I think its going to be a bridge deal just because of the cap issues signing him long term. I think its a big year for him because he can't have a stretch like he did last year without producing

 

[MelikeJets]

Gilmour-type player has more than one meaning. Babysitters, you have been warned.

I knew someone would mention that...lol

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I get the point you are making, but I think the biggest difference between Scheifele and Perfetti going into their 2nd contracts, is Scheifele had made nice progress year over year during his ELC ending year 3 with 61 points in 71 games, and had pretty much locked down the future #1 center role. While Perfetti is a year younger, he had a setback year in his 3rd ELC season which has added a lot more uncertainty to what his future may look like. You can argue it was usage, which I think is a valid argument, but his play did stagnate to some extent. I still think Perfetti is going to be an important part of our future, but at this point it is really hard to get a handle on how important.

And that is why it will likely be a bridge instead of LT. But that does not mean it should be a cheap bridge nor does it mean Chevy should grind TOO hard. Make the player happy. Make him feel appreciated. I'm not suggesting going overboard.

 

[abax44]

Contacts should be 1 yr. Then you can just keep paying players what they earned. Standard 3 yr rookie contract, then an earned contract in yr 4, etc.

Probably creates a whole host of other issues, but I'm not good at thinking ahead.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's fair, and should factor in, but some of the comments I'm reading on here are blowing me away.

The Jets have been looking for a legit number 2 center pretty much since Little went down. You've got one here (or potentially have one here) and some posters want to play hardball with a kid who has done everything asked of him.

I'm not saying he should be getting what Schiefele did, but that Dawson Mercer ish bridge is in the ball park to me.

Mercer's contract is on the high end of the range, IMO. But not crazy high.

 

[Jets 31]

Can't compare Perfetti to Scheifele because one is a center and one is a winger, center's usually get more cash. How about compare him to Connor, Connor in his second year had 31 goals and 57 points, third year he had 34 goals and 66 points.

 

[Weezeric]

Either you are banking on him putting up good number 50 to 60 points a year and you want him long term on what would be a cheaper deal like you did with Scheif/Connor/Ehlers/Morrissey or He is banking on producing more or you don't think he will produce more and sign a short term deal and see what happens.

I think if he were to play a lot of 1st unit PP time this year and stay healthy it wouldn't shock me to see him put up some numbers. His offensive skill is very elite.

I think its going to be a bridge deal just because of the cap issues signing him long term. I think its a big year for him because he can't have a stretch like he did last year without producing

Are there really that many cap issues? A six year deal between 5.5M and 6M is right in line with his comparable as I see it, and shouldn’t be an issue cap wise.