Cole Caufield: Is this the year?

[Lafleurs Guy]

I use EH and the methodology can vary between sources, hence why I mentioned the numbers I had.

But you're - again - looking at All situations. Which heavily favours PP1 players that don't get PK duty. That's why you need to look where it ranks league-wide.

His RelTM (relative-to-teammates, which is more telling than relative-to-team) numbers aren't bad (like, they're positive), but they're not "awesome" either.

Ah shit. I didn’t see the tab. On other sites it defaults to 5 on 5. My mistake.

I’m sitting down to watch a flick but will comment later. Thanks for the catch.

 

[catmanhabsfan]

Just because he leads in goals - which is nice, for sure, and we can all enjoy that while it lasts - doesn't mean he's been playing in a way that's good for long term sustainability and success. I know nobody is expecting him to continue shooting 30%+, but that's about twice as much as what we should expect from him. His career sh% is ~12.5% and his best season was ~16.5%. He's always been streaky and sooner or later he's likely go on a streak where he doesn't score that much. He'll need to improve his play elsewhere if he wants to score 40-50.

Oh my God what's wrong with people? No he isn't Mackinnon. But picking on the 1 bright spot on the team is asinine. Let the guy score goals thats what he's good at. The entire team should be criticized not the dude leading the nhl in goals sure he probably won't end the year as the rocket winner but if he puts up 40 goals that's better than anything we've had in like decades. I don't understand the criticism towards the guy it's as if he's the only reason we look terrible and not the other 20 something players who aren't already up to 10 goals on the year.

Btw. 96 goals in 206 games with one huge dry spell of like half a year under ducharme in his first FULL nhl season. That's not some streaky Brian Savage kind of player that's a perennial 40 goal guy they don't grow on trees people

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Not really.

From the moment MSL took over up to Caufield's shoulder surgery, Cole had 48 goals in 83 games and was pretty consistent in that sequence. In that sequence, he had a single 5 game drought, his longest, a single 4 game drought, and 3 times where he didn't score in 3 games in a row. 8 times 2 games in a row. 9 times missing out on a single game. He scored in 39 of those 83 games. Very few players in the league will have a single season high of 5 games in a row without a goal. Even fewer can say their second single longest drought is 4 games. This all paints a picture of someone who's not streaky at all.

To better illustrate this and further my point, look at how that 83 games sequence runs down in splices of 10:

6/10
7/10
4/10
7/10
6/10
5/10
6/10
6/10

That sequence is the very definition of consistency. He never drops below 4 and never higher than 7. I should mic drop at this point, but there's something else I want to point out.

He was 17.7% in shooting percentage over those 83 games.

He's been highly consistent when not bugged down from returning from surgery. Now, he seems to have hit another gear, because instead of 7/10's as his max (I also checked any individual sequence of 10 games and he hit 7/10 three times), he now hit a 8 in 10 to end last season (for the first time), and did 9/10 this past month to start the season (for the first time). If you're a betting man, what does that all spell out for the future, if you consider his pre-injury consistency?

I prefer doing rolling-sums. It results in the following, where each data point for "10 games total" is the goal total for that day's game + the 9 previous games. The beginning of the season considers data from the previous season, so the 10 goals on 2022-10-29 includes the hat trick from the last game of the 2021-22 season.

A bit less streaky than I thought in his two first seasons (if we omit the Ducharme effect), conceded.

For this season, he'll still need to find a way to shoot more because he's shooting far less than his previous seasons, and if he doesn't, it won't make up for his eventual sh% decline. Even with his best sh%, his shot total this years would result in ~5 goals instead of the 10 he currently has, so a pace of about 40 goals. Which is still good - but doesn't mean overall play should be improved.
Obviously this doesn't account for the missed-shot opportunities from actually scoring - if you score on your own rebound, it takes you 2 shots instead of 1, if you score early on the PP, it might prevent you from taking an additional shot, etc.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Ah shit. I didn’t see the tab. On other sites it defaults to 5 on 5. My mistake.

I’m sitting down to watch a flick but will comment later. Thanks for the catch.

Yeah, it's weird that they'd default to all situations. Especially when it's pretty much common knowledge that possession metrics / advanced stats should, ideally (unless heavily contextualized), never be looked at "all situations".

 

[themilosh]

Could be a great year if CC can contend for the Rocket Richard.. suzuki to finish in top 10 Scoring, and Slaf to maintain a PPG pace..

Laine comes back as a ppg... signs a 4 year extension at $7m/yr

Dach is moved to the 2wing, and Habs go out and sign a legit 2C.

Draft Porter Malone, and bring in demidov next year.

Rainman cones back from injury, stronger than ever.. starts next year.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I prefer doing rolling-sums. It results in the following, where each data point for "10 games total" is the goal total for that day's game + the 9 previous games. The beginning of the season considers data from the previous season, so the 10 goals on 2022-10-29 includes the hat trick from the last game of the 2021-22 season.
View attachment 925179

A bit less streaky than I thought in his two first seasons (if we omit the Ducharme effect), conceded.

I told you I did a "any individual sequences of 10" too in his 83 games sequence, that's rolling sums (when I laid out his previous best sequences, 3 times 7 in 10 in any given 10 games, not the 83 in simple slices of 10, which was just to illustrate how it panned out over those 83 games). Also, in those 83 games, the slices I listed, you pick any consecutive trio of 10's, and anyone of them adds-up to around 17 to 19 goals in 30 games.

Also, the problem here is you're also taking last season where he came back from surgery. It skews his numbers. AFAIC, his benchmark to how he trends normally (no ducharme, no missing strenght or synchronicity from surgery rehab), is those 83 games I mentioned before. His last 20 games sure lands a lot of weight to that. And in those 83 games, he averaged 6 per 10, not 5 per 10. Do the same exercise, but only for those 83 games, and that's probably what Caufield will offer (or more) if he's not dealing with surgery rehab.

For this season, he'll still need to find a way to shoot more because he's shooting far less than his previous seasons, and if he doesn't, it won't make up for his eventual sh% decline. Even with his best sh%, his shot total this years would result in ~5 goals instead of the 10 he currently has, so a pace of about 40 goals. Which is still good - but doesn't mean overall play should be improved.
Obviously this doesn't account for the missed-shot opportunities from actually scoring - if you score on your own rebound, it takes you 2 shots instead of 1, if you score early on the PP, it might prevent you from taking an additional shot, etc.

Dude, you're the third person I catch doing this double standard in the last week, which is, on the one hand hinting at his shot percentage normalizing, yet instead of simply doing the same with his shot count (he had 272 in those 83 games, and 314 in 82 last season), you try to create this narrative where he's liable to do one, but not the other. People acting like his shot count is a problem are making a mountain out of mole hill simply by ignoring the reality that both should normalize. If a sniper like him hits a cold spell, normalizing his shot%, he will quite probably start to shoot more. Case in point is last season, where he had his highest shots per game ratio, but lowest goals per game ratio of his career. On the other hand if you think one might not normalize and the other will, the same could be said the other way around, but in all likelyhood, both should normalize, it's just matter to what degree.

 

[Mrb1p]

I told you I did a "any individual sequences of 10" too in his 83 games sequence, that's rolling sums (when I laid out his previous best sequences, 3 times 7 in 10 in any given 10 games, not the 83 in simple slices of 10, which was just to illustrate how it panned out over those 83 games). Also, in those 83 games, the slices I listed, you pick any consecutive trio of 10's, and anyone of them adds-up to around 17 to 19 goals in 30 games.

Also, the problem here is you're also taking last season where he came back from surgery. It skews his numbers. AFAIC, his benchmark to how he trends normally (no ducharme, no missing strenght or synchronicity from surgery rehab), is those 83 games I mentioned before. His last 20 games sure lands a lot of weight to that. And in those 83 games, he averaged 6 per 10, not 5 per 10. Do the same exercise, but only for those 83 games, and that's probably what Caufield will offer (or more) if he's not dealing with surgery rehab.



Dude, you're the third person I catch doing this double standard in the last week, which is, on the one hand hinting at his shot percentage normalizing, yet instead of simply doing the same with his shot count (he had 272 in those 83 games, and 314 in 82 last season), you try to create this narrative where he's liable to do one, but not the other. People acting like his shot count is a problem are making a mountain out of mole hill simply by ignoring the reality that both should normalize. If a sniper like him hits a cold spell, normalizing his shot%, he will quite probably start to shoot more. Case in point is last season, where he had his highest shots per game ratio, but lowest goals per game ratio of his career. On the other hand if you think one might not normalize and the other will, the same could be said the other way around.

His shot count isn't going to normalize because he said it himself it was a goal to pick his spot better rather than just throw everything at the net.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yeah, it's weird that they'd default to all situations. Especially when it's pretty much common knowledge that possession metrics / advanced stats should, ideally (unless heavily contextualized), never be looked at "all situations".

Yeah, normally if I look up advanced stats, the numbers are all default 5 on 5.... Ah well that sucks. I thought CC and Suzuki were doing really well in terms of possession despite being on bad clubs but their numbers are mediocre. To be fair they're doing okay on mediocre clubs but not dominant as I thought they were. Suzuki's usage is also different than Caufield's so he has that for him too.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

His shot count isn't going to normalize because he said it himself it was a goal to pick his spot better rather than just throw everything at the net.

If you can score a goal on one shot rather than three... great. But you shouldn't look at volume as a negative.

 

[Mrb1p]

If you can score a goal on one shot rather than three... great. But you shouldn't look at volume as a negative.

Volune isnt inherently negative but it is hard, read nearly impossible, to be a volume shooter and a good possession player.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Volune isnt inherently negative but it is hard, read nearly impossible, to be a volume shooter and a good possession player.

This seems very counterintuitive since possession is measured by shot attempts. The more shot attempts you're on the ice for the better. The more shot attempts against you're on the ice for the worse off you are. That's how we measure possession. I'm not sure why shot volume would be a bad thing.

 

[Kennedys]

The big difference with CC is he get way more high danger scoring chances compared to last year. 8 High danger scoring chances after 11 games. On pace for 60. He got only 30 last season

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

The big difference with CC is he get way more high danger scoring chances compared to last year. 8 High danger scoring chances after 11 games. On pace for 60. He got only 30 last season

View attachment 925237

interesting, thanks for sharing. how is high/medium/low calculated?

 

[Kennedys]

interesting, thanks for sharing. how is high/medium/low calculated?

**The value is assigned based on the location of the shots** . Cole is going to the dirty area way more than last season. He was the king of perimeter shots in 2023-24.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

His shot count isn't going to normalize because he said it himself it was a goal to pick his spot better rather than just throw everything at the net.

Then there's a good chance he'll be over his 17.7% he had in the 83 games (games 41 to 123 of his career, MSL to Surgery). I doubt he'll go down lower than 17-18, and I also doubt he'll finish with a much lower shot count than 270, which is just a little over 3 shots per game.

You also ignored that I said a cold spell would have him shoot more. No matter whay he says, if he's in a cold spell, he'll very likely shoot more. Considering his previous consistency, I doubt he'll suddenly turn into a streaky scorer, which means he'll steer clear of scoring droughts.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

I told you I did a "any individual sequences of 10" too in his 83 games sequence, that's rolling sums (when I laid out his previous best sequences, 3 times 7 in 10 in any given 10 games, not the 83 in simple slices of 10, which was just to illustrate how it panned out over those 83 games). Also, in those 83 games, the slices I listed, you pick any consecutive trio of 10's, and anyone of them adds-up to around 17 to 19 goals in 30 games.

The bolded is the only relevant part of that paragraph, since I did misunderstand the last sentence of your initial post. Ultimately, visuals always help understanding the data better.

The rest really adds nothing to the discussion, since you're just trying to convince me for some reason... when I've already laid out the data graphically after seeing your first rebutal, and realized that I misjudged his streakiness through his first two seasons due to last season's streakiness.

Also, the problem here is you're also taking last season where he came back from surgery. It skews his numbers. AFAIC, his benchmark to how he trends normally (no ducharme, no missing strenght or synchronicity from surgery rehab), is those 83 games I mentioned before. His last 20 games sure lands a lot of weight to that. And in those 83 games, he averaged 6 per 10, not 5 per 10. Do the same exercise, but only for those 83 games, and that's probably what Caufield will offer (or more) if he's not dealing with surgery rehab.

I don't know how you come to the conclusion that my graphs don't include those 83 games when they literally do. It's the end of 21-22 and the 22-23 season. As I even said, the rolling sum is continous between seasons.

Dude, you're the third person I catch doing this double standard in the last week, which is, on the one hand hinting at his shot percentage normalizing, yet instead of simply doing the same with his shot count (he had 272 in those 83 games, and 314 in 82 last season), you try to create this narrative where he's liable to do one, but not the other. People acting like his shot count is a problem are making a mountain out of mole hill simply by ignoring the reality that both should normalize. If a sniper like him hits a cold spell, normalizing his shot%, he will quite probably start to shoot more. Case in point is last season, where he had his highest shots per game ratio, but lowest goals per game ratio of his career. On the other hand if you think one might not normalize and the other will, the same could be said the other way around, but in all likelyhood, both should normalize, it's just matter to what degree.

It's not a double standard to point out that he'll need to shoot more; I'm in no way saying he can't adjust - just that he'll have to. I also mention that an increased shooting volume is expected with lower sh%, even without change to the way a player plays, due to the simple fact it adds more opportunities to shoot. That's what my last sentence entailed. If you don't score on a shot, you might get a rebound and thus an additional shot you wouldn't have gotten had you scored.

Sh% statistically normalizes, especially when it's in historical outlier territory. Shooting doesn't necessarily normalize (but can), since it's far more prone to deployment (PP opps notably), selectivity, score effects and overall play. If you take a shot on a rush, and don't score, a teammate might be able to gain possession of the puck and establish position in the OZ, leading to you getting an additional shot or two during that sequence - a sequence that wouldn't have necessarily happened had you scored due to the central ice faceoff.

One interesting phenomenon that you see with Cole last year is started shooting more early in his cold streaks, but his shot volume gradually goes down, and when he finally finds touch back, the shots come back at the same time. I suppose this happens due to a confidence boost and to many goalscorers league wide, but too lazy to do that. Also too lazy to cross-validate to see whether it could be due to fluctuations in PP opps, ice time, teammates, etc. Could just be impact from minor injuries, too.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

**The value is assigned based on the location of the shots** . Cole is going to the dirty area way more than last season. He was the king of perimeter shots in 2023-24.

hm, maybe, but from what we can see he has been scoring from two places:

- off the rush on the right side
- from the hash marks on the left side, usually on power play

neither of which i would call the 'dirty areas'. either way, really happy with how Cole has been playing, one of the few bright spots so far.

 

[Kennedys]

hm, maybe, but from what we can see he has been scoring from two places:

- off the rush on the right side
- from the hash marks on the left side, usually on power play

neither of which i would call the 'dirty areas'. either way, really happy with how Cole has been playing, one of the few bright spots so far.

Ok lets just say that on average, he shoot from closer to the net than last season and that help hehe

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

**The value is assigned based on the location of the shots** . Cole is going to the dirty area way more than last season. He was the king of perimeter shots in 2023-24.

He racked up a ton of mid ice shots last year and it should’ve been enough for around fifty goals. But his percentage from that area dropped by two thirds. That’s a good twenty goals he should’ve had. Just fixing that would give him around 50 this year.

If he’s getting more shots unblocked from in close, it will only drive his numbers higher.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The bolded is the only relevant part of that paragraph, since I did misunderstand the last sentence of your initial post. Ultimately, visuals always help understanding the data better.

The rest really adds nothing to the discussion, since you're just trying to convince me for some reason... when I've already laid out the data graphically after seeing your first rebutal, and realized that I misjudged his streakiness through his first two seasons due to last season's streakiness.

I don't know how you come to the conclusion that my graphs don't include those 83 games when they literally do. It's the end of 21-22 and the 22-23 season. As I even said, the rolling sum is continous between seasons.

It's not a double standard to point out that he'll need to shoot more; I'm in no way saying he can't adjust - just that he'll have to. I also mention that an increased shooting volume is expected with lower sh%, even without change to the way a player plays, due to the simple fact it adds more opportunities to shoot. That's what my last sentence entailed. If you don't score on a shot, you might get a rebound and thus an additional shot you wouldn't have gotten had you scored.

Sh% statistically normalizes, especially when it's in historical outlier territory. Shooting doesn't necessarily normalize (but can), since it's far more prone to deployment (PP opps notably), selectivity, score effects and overall play. If you take a shot on a rush, and don't score, a teammate might be able to gain possession of the puck and establish position in the OZ, leading to you getting an additional shot or two during that sequence - a sequence that wouldn't have necessarily happened had you scored due to the central ice faceoff.

One interesting phenomenon that you see with Cole last year is started shooting more early in his cold streaks, but his shot volume gradually goes down, and when he finally finds touch back, the shots come back at the same time. I suppose this happens due to a confidence boost and to many goalscorers league wide, but too lazy to do that. Also too lazy to cross-validate to see whether it could be due to fluctuations in PP opps, ice time, teammates, etc. Could just be impact from minor injuries, too.
View attachment 925250

Last year was a bonkers year for him. Shot volume was great but the shots from mid ice were terrible compared to previous performance. Something like five or six percent is dreadful. Then near the end of the year he gets hot goes ice cold and finishes hot again.

It seems like he’s been around forever but the reality is that he’s still very young and has missed a lot of games and his only 8/ game year is where he was injured.

He’s shown amazing potential and that combined with his junior career gives me the confidence to believe he’ll be a consistent 40+ goal scorer with some 50 years in there.

I don’t expect to see the crazy swings we’ve seen from him lately but you never know.

Totally agree he has to get his shot totals up. Great that he’s having success but he’s not going to finish with 50 averaging only three shots a game the rest of the way.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Last year was a bonkers year for him. Shot volume was great but the shots from mid ice were terrible compared to previous performance. Something like five or six percent is dreadful. Then near the end of the year he gets hot goes ice cold and finishes hot again.

It seems like he’s been around forever but the reality is that he’s still very young and has missed a lot of games and his only 8/ game year is where he was injured.

He’s shown amazing potential and that combined with his junior career gives me the confidence to believe he’ll be a consistent 40+ goal scorer with some 50 years in there.

I don’t expect to see the crazy swings we’ve seen from him lately but you never know.

Totally agree he has to get his shot totals up. Great that he’s having success but he’s not going to finish with 50 averaging only three shots a game the rest of the way.

Mountain out of a mole hill.

He's averaging 2.91 shots per game since the season started. His average when he had 48g in 83gp was 3.27 shots per game. That's just little over one shot less per 3 games. The difference is so insignificant, considering he's shooting better. If he shoots worst, he'll quite probably shoot more.

The whole shot count boogeyman is entirely ridiculous. Let's say he averages 3 shots per game the rest of the way, so 213 more shots and we stick his shot% from those 83 games, which was 17.7%, that would give him 38 more goals, bringing him to 48g on 82 games with a total shot count of 245 and shot percentage of 19.6%. My personal projection is that he'll finish north of 20% (total) with around 250-270 shots, for around 50 to 55 goals.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Mountain out of a mole hill.

He's averaging 2.91 shots per game since the season started. His average when he had 48g in 83gp was 3.27 shots per game. That's just little over one shot less per 3 games. The difference is so insignificant, considering he's shooting better. If he shoots worst, he'll quite probably shoot more.

The whole shot count boogeyman is entirely ridiculous. Let's say he averages 3 shots per game the rest of the way, so 213 more shots and we stick his shot% from those 83 games, which was 17.7%, that would give him 38 more goals, bringing him to 48g on 82 games with a total shot count of 245 and shot percentage of 19.6%. My personal projection is that he'll finish north of 20% (total) with around 250-270 shots, for around 50 to 55 goals.

I just think he's got a much better chance at overachieving if he gets those numbers up. Last year it was 314 shots. Even at 15 percent it's a 45 goal season. At 18 (what he did over that previous stretch) it's 57 goals.

Most great scorers have tons of shots. Only two players with over 300 shots didn't get to 40 goals last year. Caufield and Tkatchuk. There were some who got to 40 without hitting the 300 mark but the more shots you have the better positioned you are to get to those higher numbers. Four guys managed 40 goals with 240 shots or less. Sam Reinhart finished with 57 goals on only 233 - good for 24.5 shooting percentage. I don't think you can count on that.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I just think he's got a much better chance at overachieving if he gets those numbers up. Last year it was 314 shots. Even at 15 percent it's a 45 goal season. At 18 (what he did over that previous stretch) it's 57 goals.

Most great scorers have tons of shots. Only two players with over 300 shots didn't get to 40 goals last year. Caufield and Tkatchuk. There were some who got to 40 without hitting the 300 mark but the more shots you have the better positioned you are to get to those higher numbers. Four guys managed 40 goals with 240 shots or less. Sam Reinhart finished with 57 goals on only 233 - good for 24.5 shooting percentage. I don't think you can count on that.

That's the only place where I disagree. Caufield has the kind of early season that lends itself to an over +20s%. There has been 6 instances of +40 goals scorers with a s% of +20% in the last 5 seasons: Reinhart, Point×2, Scheifele, Draisaitl and Kreider. 4 of those were +50 goals seasons, out of a total of 13 +50 goals instances. 1/3 doing it with +20s% isn't that rare, out of those who managed to do it.

There's no single mold to get to 50 goals. Some are more volume shooters like Pasta (61 g/407s, 15%) and MacKinnon (51g/405s, 12.6%) and others are more quality shooters like Reinhart (57g/233s, 24.5%), Kreider (52g/258s, 20.2%), Point (51g/235s, 21.7%) and Draisaitl (52g/247s, 21.1%). A very rare few are high end in both categories like Matthews (69g/369s, 18.7%) and McDavid (64g/352, 18.2%). While some are in between, like Rantanen (55g/306s, 18%) and Hyman (54g/290s, 18.6).

I aggragated those 13 +50 goals seasons in the last 5 years (relevant as goalie equipment was reduced in 2019) and here are the averages for a +50 goalscorer since 2019:

56.15 goals
316.6 shots
17.7s%

The only benchmark in there that cole hasn't reached is the 50 goals, so to me it's just a matter of time. He had the 17.7% in 83 games and also had the 314 shots in 82 games. He has all the earmarks of a future 50 goal scorer and his early season also lends itself very well in terms of reaching it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That's the only place where I disagree. Caufield has the kind of early season that lends itself to an over +20s%. There has been 6 instances of +40 goals scorers with a s% of +20% in the last 5 seasons: Reinhart, Point×2, Scheifele, Draisaitl and Kreider. 4 of those were +50 goals seasons, out of a total of 13 +50 goals instances. 1/3 doing it with +20s% isn't that rare, out of those who managed to do it.

There's no single mold to get to 50 goals. Some are more volume shooters like Pasta (61 g/407s, 15%) and MacKinnon (51g/405s, 12.6%) and others are more quality shooters like Reinhart (57g/233s, 24.5%), Kreider (52g/258s, 20.2%), Point (51g/235s, 21.7%) and Draisaitl (52g/247s, 21.1%). A very rare few are high end in both categories like Matthews (69g/369s, 18.7%) and McDavid (64g/352, 18.2%). While some are in between, like Rantanen (55g/306s, 18%) and Hyman (54g/290s, 18.6).

I aggragated those 13 +50 goals seasons in the last 5 years (relevant as goalie equipment was reduced in 2019) and here are the averages for a +50 goalscorer since 2019:

56.15 goals
316.6 shots
17.7s%

The only benchmark in there that cole hasn't reached is the 50 goals, so to me it's just a matter of time. He had the 17.7% in 83 games and also had the 314 shots in 82 games. He has all the earmarks of a future 50 goal scorer and his early season also lends itself very well in terms of reaching it.

Maybe he can do it. He’s got a great shot and has proven he can score. I just think that the more shots you have the more pucks will go in. More shots generally coincides with more goals.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Maybe he can do it. He’s got a great shot and has proven he can score. I just think that the more shots you have the more pucks will go in. More shots generally coincides with more goals.

Sure, but different players bring different results, considering the wide chasm between Point (235 shots) and MacKinnon (400 shots) reaching 50 goals. Just saying, Caufield might a very high quality shooter who doesn't need to pop 400 shots to get to 50 goals, nor even 300 for that matter, considering he carried a 17.7 for 83 games as a rookie and sophomore. Picking better spots, like he said he intended to, should lead him to go over that 17.7%.