This is the truth imo. Prevailing wisdom is this is good for the players and maybe that’s true, but it also puts the OHL and the other leagues in a more precarious situation. Harder to convince a community to support a team that is at risk of losing its best players early, kids prioritizing ncaa over OHL so there’s less overall committment and loyalty to OHL communities and teams. You don’t want to see the league become basically the same thing as the ushl is, very good 16-18 year olds but all the best 19-20 year olds are all gone.
I still can’t see it.
This would be the projected pathway for the top players in the OHL if they choose that route:
16yo - play sparingly as a rookie. Only a small handful of players actually play meaningful top 9 and top 4 roles.
17yo - most likely middle 6 forward roles and maybe that 4-5 D-Man role
18yo - move to NCAA. Sit on the bench most games and that is even if you dress.
19yo - sophomore season in NCAA. Roll it back as if they were 17yo in the OHL. They play more but not a lot.
I don’t see how that is a positive trajectory for top players. The pure elite players that are drafted high in the NHL will remain in the OHL almost certainly. I see no reason why a player would leave the OHL early to sit in the stands as a rookie 18 year old. Even as a rookie 19 year old, at best they play middle 6 minutes up front or 4-5 D-Man minutes on the back end. They may as well continue their journey, play out their eligibility in the OHL, lock in their scholarship, and then decide what they want to do.
Remember, a CHL player can play 18 months of pro hockey provided they don’t sign and NHL deal and still access their scholarship. They cannot do that and play NCAA after. I believe the AHL contract and $$$ would exceed the limits allowed.
I can see a small handful of players decide to leave the OHL early simply because things aren’t going well for them. They don’t see themselves as having Pro prospects. They are scholastically inclined and simply decide it is better to just get that early jump on their career path at 19. But, that would be the exception, not the norm.
We already have numbers in place. Will a player that didn’t go CIS, decide to go NCAA? Not likely. School is school. Either they are the type that wants to get an education or not. On top of that, the CHL scholarship is good for trade schools and certificate programs etc. There are no DIV 1 Trade schools. Education in general is shifting away from traditional education to specialized programs. The CHL scholarship program is far more flexible than NCAA and it doesn’t REQUIRE them to play hockey to access it.
I think a lot of this angle presented is very over blown.
To me, the ONLY real question is will this new rule change open the door for more Americans to play CHL? I think less Canadians will play USHL but will the Americans make the shift? I think the USNTDP will still stay strong but players that don’t make that team will potentially report to their OHL team. That said, if the USHL suffers a bit, it may make it tougher for the USNTDP as well. We shall see.