CHL/NCAA

[RB76]

Always enjoy the read and this is all fun speculation of course as were we're trying to predict how the future will unfold but like OMG67 indicated we will have to revisit in two years but I wanted to get my thoughts out:

I agree high end 20/21 yr olds joining the NCAA will no doubt raise the level of competition and make it extremely difficult for the avg 18/19 yr old to be able to really stand out.

Also, why risk major injury? Just as 16yr olds suffer major injuries playing junior hockey against 20/21 yr olds, many 18/19/20 yr olds often suffer major career threatening injuries playing pro before they are fully ready.

I could see the different leagues including the NHL, NCAA, CHL and USHL working together to develop a preferred development path which could maybe include a CHL/USHL championship series and a bigger and better final NCAA Championship Tournament.

The NIL Money situation is evolving. The current F1 visa allows foreign born students to make passive income only from NIL but perhaps schools figure out a way to get around this?

As for the grind of University education, most athletes won't carry a full load especially during the season or graduate but the experience and time management lessons will undoubtedly better prepare them for life after hockey. The next generation of younger athletes will undoubtedly start focusing more on their education path which is a good thing.

Last thought, regarding training and development. If it was all about practicing, skills, gym and film study the Russians would have taken over long ago. There's a balance to this thing called life and this generation has a different mindset and way of doing things, let's see how it all works out!

 

[Otto]

Great read

The NCAA is lifting its longtime ban on major-junior players - now what?

Press releases from hockey teams tend to be pretty bland. The title and opening paragraph contain all of the news ("Player X has signed with Team Y"), leaving reporters and fans with no reason to read the rest of the release.Until now, anyway.On Sunday, the London Knights announced Ottawa...

www.thescore.com

 

[BadgerBruce]

I’d echo the appreciation posters have extended for the high quality convo in this thread. A-1 and a pleasure to read.

There’s simply so much to digest, and so many moving parts.

Just spitballing here …

I get the feeling deep in my gut that there is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for junior hockey in North America to take a giant leap. Perhaps some form of merger with the USHL, or perhaps simply adding expansion franchises from existing USHL ownership groups — the mechanics might don’t matter that much — but boy, I smell changes coming. Too bad the “North American Hockey League” name is already taken!

Branch is gone, Robison is gone, Courteau is gone. The CHL has a new(ish) leader. Hefferan is barely a year into running the USHL. The stage is set for something big to happen to the junior hockey setup on the continent. Am I the only one who sees stars aligning?

 

[leafs4life94]

Looks like it's confirmed that BCHL players will be allowed to play in the OHL this year with Jack Pridham being released to Kitchener.

Opens up some doors some thought might stay closed for this year.

 

[Kingpin794]

I’d echo the appreciation posters have extended for the high quality convo in this thread. A-1 and a pleasure to read.

There’s simply so much to digest, and so many moving parts.

Just spitballing here …

I get the feeling deep in my gut that there is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for junior hockey in North America to take a giant leap. Perhaps some form of merger with the USHL, or perhaps simply adding expansion franchises from existing USHL ownership groups — the mechanics might don’t matter that much — but boy, I smell changes coming. Too bad the “North American Hockey League” name is already taken!

Branch is gone, Robison is gone, Courteau is gone. The CHL has a new(ish) leader. Hefferan is barely a year into running the USHL. The stage is set for something big to happen to the junior hockey setup on the continent. Am I the only one who sees stars aligning?

I just have a hard time seeing USA hockey handing it's flagship junior league over to the CHL. Unless somehow they put all 4 leagues under one umbrella and let USA run the USHL. USHL would have to adopt the model of the other CHL leagues (priority drafts/import drafts/no tender system). Would they want to give up on doing things their way? OHL would have to give up some state territorial rights. Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin. WHL would have to give up MN, TX. Redraw their line from NM to MT. Even then, I don't know if that version of the USHL is competitive vs the other CHL leagues if they don't have any Canadian provinces to draw from. Wouldn't have MI or the east coast to pick from anymore.

 

[GoKnightsGo44]

I wonder what if anything the BCHL/USHL can or will do to counter the talent drain. It will take a significant toll.

The leagues that will clearly improve are the CHL/NCAA with the junior b affiliates like the OJHL soaking up more younger players that can’t make a more skilled roster.

I see the CHL as a 17/18/19 elite league, OJHL will specialize more on 16/17 year old development and the NCAA picks up very good but not great 19/20 year old talent.

I believe this adds a lot of credibility to USHL teams entering the CHL and I would bank on a whole new league adjoining the CHL to capture the expansion of hockey in the USA…. And on that point what about a European division, you only meet in the memorial cup?

 

[bigsportsfan]

Why would an UNSIGNED “Prospect” take direction from the NHL team that drafted him that results in the player changing leagues? That seems like a very far fetched argument.

Also, this off ice training you speak of seems fishy to me as well. They need to take a five course load and maintain grades to keep their scholarship. Give this piece a read to understand the demands on D1 athletes:

Study: Time demands of D1 student-athletes are excessive

The NCAA route is very difficult. In fact, most CHL players when taking University courses during their hockey season would only typically take 2 classes. To be able to take five classes, it significantly restricts their time on and off ice. IT creates a distraction and an additional burden that CHL players do not have.

Also, the OHL is a better league thant he USHL but jsut because it is a better league doesn’t mean the player is adequately prepared to play in it. Same goes for 18 yar olds that try to play NCAA and ride the pine as a freshman.

I really feel there are a lot of people piping in on this topic that really don’t have a sense of what drives hockey players. There is a major cultural divide between Canadian and American hockey players. Canadian hockey players have had massive opportunities to play NCAA athletics whether it be hockey or otherwise. Yet, in hockey, the overwhelming majority choose to remain in Canada. Same witht he american players. They have a high tendency of playing in the USA. It is cultural.

I do not understand people that suggest players will play in the CHL for two years, maybe three and bolt for the NCAA when the path to the NCAA is already in place and active. The real question is whether US born kids will change paths and play CHL. IF they do, the vast majority of them will not play much as 16 year olds, just like the Canadian kids don’t. Just because they are rostered, it doesn’t mean they are truly playing. Most are 4th line, 3rd pairing, or healthy scratches. They do play more as 17 year olds but only the really strong ones (that are also typically the top NHL prospects) make a significant impact on their CHL team. That is not a big cohort either. Mostly they are the 1st and maybe 2nd rounders from the previous draft.

At the end of the day, I cannot see a player hold off on signing an NHL ELC to shift to the NCAA to become a better prospect and have a better chance of being signed. It seems fishy to me. The top NHL prospects get singed. Those are the players best suited to play NCAA. The second tier NHL prospects are usually on the right development path and many fo those players get signed as well. The ones that don’t would have to take a leap of faith, go to the NCAA and play against 22 year olds expecting to somehow become better? How does that even work logically?

There are lots of players who get drafted out of the USHL then go to the NCAA. There are also lots of players who get drafted after playing a season in the NCAA. NHL draftees playing in the NCAA is nothing new.

Remember, the NCAA is the number one development league for almost every North American sport except hockey. Most North American pro basketball and football players played in the NCAA. Is it that far fetched that eventually the NCAA, with their massive budgets, could become the main developmental league for hockey too?

 

[OMG67]

There are lots of players who get drafted out of the USHL then go to the NCAA. There are also lots of players who get drafted after playing a season in the NCAA. NHL draftees playing in the NCAA is nothing new.

Remember, the NCAA is the number one development league for almost every North American sport except hockey. Most North American pro basketball and football players played in the NCAA. Is it that far fetched that eventually the NCAA, with their massive budgets, could become the main developmental league for hockey too?

Hockey skews younger. And those other sports don’t have competition, junior leagues etc. They run High School to College pathways. Hockey doesn’t run that way.

 

[WaW]

Why would they?

Eh, in this world where its not overly uncommon for teams to dick around the NHL/CHL agreememt as it pertains to the AHL, why wouldn't they for a handful of players?

Besides most of these NCAA schools aren't offering full rides. Other than the Big Ten, Ivy League, and few non-B1G schools with power football/basketball conference ties (ie Boston College, UConn) most of these schools are operating at substantial financial losses when it comes to athletics.

 

[WaW]

There aren't anywhere even remotely close to as many full rides as I think some people are implying here

Unless a bunch of the Big Ten schools without programs decided to start them (and dont get me wrong, I'd love to see it, but Im not holding my breath), most of these other schools don't have the money to hand out full rides like candy. I think alot of people seem to forget that a large chunk of D1 hockey schools are D2 in all other sports, and the expenses for D1 hockey are already through the roof as is. And clearly there is alot of missing context from this discussion that should be considered...such as NCAA Title IX...so just because the talent available to NCAA schools will literally skyrocket, don't expect that to actually change the philosophy on pattial vs full scholarships.

For every unlimited resource school like Michigan, there are 10 Lake Superior States just barely scraping by.

 

[Matthew L Wilson]

Can anyone enlighten me as to facilities and attendance in the USHL? Hockey DB does not list attendance figures for it's league. I know that a few of the teams do pretty well and have decent arenas. There are several OHL cities struggling with attendance. Would relocation to the better cities be an option?

 

[OHL4Life]

Looks like it's confirmed that BCHL players will be allowed to play in the OHL this year with Jack Pridham being released to Kitchener.

Opens up some doors some thought might stay closed for this year.

posted a few days ago hockey canada is letting them back, one time waiver of the rules. 10 day appeal, they let everyone back in. motivated to drain the talent out of the bchl.

 

[Otto]

Eh, in this world where its not overly uncommon for teams to dick around the NHL/CHL agreememt as it pertains to the AHL, why wouldn't they for a handful of players?

Besides most of these NCAA schools aren't offering full rides. Other than the Big Ten, Ivy League, and few non-B1G schools with power football/basketball conference ties (ie Boston College, UConn) most of these schools are operating at substantial financial losses when it comes to athletics.

You didn't answer the question

 

[OMG67]

Eh, in this world where its not overly uncommon for teams to dick around the NHL/CHL agreememt as it pertains to the AHL, why wouldn't they for a handful of players?

Besides most of these NCAA schools aren't offering full rides. Other than the Big Ten, Ivy League, and few non-B1G schools with power football/basketball conference ties (ie Boston College, UConn) most of these schools are operating at substantial financial losses when it comes to athletics.

Give this a read. Ivy League schools do not give athletic scholarships. There is financial aid available under certain circumstances. The athlete is still likely to cover upwards of 18% of the cost of tuition.

Athletic Scholarships: Everything You Need to Know

A key part of the college sports recruiting process is understanding how athletic scholarships work. See how much money you can expect to be offered.

www.ncsasports.org

 

[bcspragu]

I just have a hard time seeing USA hockey handing it's flagship junior league over to the CHL. Unless somehow they put all 4 leagues under one umbrella and let USA run the USHL. USHL would have to adopt the model of the other CHL leagues (priority drafts/import drafts/no tender system). Would they want to give up on doing things their way? OHL would have to give up some state territorial rights. Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin. WHL would have to give up MN, TX. Redraw their line from NM to MT. Even then, I don't know if that version of the USHL is competitive vs the other CHL leagues if they don't have any Canadian provinces to draw from. Wouldn't have MI or the east coast to pick from anymore.

Yeah I don't see why the CHL would want to partner with the USHL from a total league standpoint when they can just pick off the best franchises they want as expansion teams and have current CHL teams sign their players. Theres no real benefit for them to merge because in a merge you have to take the down sides as well, right now they can just take what they want.

The USDTP is literally going to be holding the USHL together because that cant be absorbed into the CHL

 

[JMCx4]

Can anyone enlighten me as to facilities and attendance in the USHL? Hockey DB does not list attendance figures for it's league. I know that a few of the teams do pretty well and have decent arenas. There are several OHL cities struggling with attendance. Would relocation to the better cities be an option?

HockeyTech's LeagueStat.com statistics site publishes a daily stat sheet that includes each USHL team's average attendance, if you want a snapshot of crowd sizes relatively early in the current season (which may not reflect full season trends). I haven't found a way to access the LeagueStat sheet from the final 2023-24 regular season game date which would offer a list of recent full season avg. attendance numbers. It might be accessible to someone with Media access privileges, or just a fan more cunning than me with web search skills.

As for facilities, I'm not sure what your definition of "decent arenas" entails. But here's my shot at better & worse current USHL venues (one fan's perspectives, subject to debate) listed alphabetically for each category ...

Top 5 "Decent Arenas" ...
• Covelli Centre (Youngstown Phantoms - Youngstown, OH) ... About the Covelli Centre – Covelli Centre
• Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls Stampede - Sioux Falls, SD) ... Venue Info
• Liberty First Credit Union Arena (Omaha Lancers - Omaha, NE) ... Arena | Liberty First Credit Union Arena
• Scheels Arena (Fargo Force - Fargo, ND) ... SCHEELS Arena
• Tyson Events Center (Sioux City Musketeers - Sioux City, IA) ... Venue Information | Tyson Events Center

Bottom 5 (tougher choices) ...
• Bob Suter's Legacy20 Arena (Madison Capitols - Middleton, WI) ... Facility Overview
• Ice Box (Lincoln Stars - Lincoln, NE) ... Ice Box
• ImOn Arena (Dubuque Fighting Saints - Dubuque, IA) ... ImOn Arena
• Viaero Wireless Center (Tri-City Storm - Kearney, NE) ... For Promoters – Viaero Center
• Young Arena (Waterloo Black Hawks - Waterloo, IA) ... Young Arena - Hockey & Ice Skating Rink in Waterloo, Iowa


That leaves your hardest question: "There are several OHL cities struggling with attendance. Would relocation to the better cities be an option?" My inclination is to point out that hockey teams have league franchise agreements & facility leases & fan bases & business partners & government authorities & especially owners/ownership groups which are all much harder to rearrange & shuffle & satisfy en masse than a one-to-one home ice move at a time. The "better cities" are only better if all those stakeholders benefit from the relocations you may want to propose.

 

[Matthew L Wilson]

JMCx4, thank you for your response! That answers all my questions.

 

[WaW]

Give this a read. Ivy League schools do not give athletic scholarships. There is financial aid available under certain circumstances. The athlete is still likely to cover upwards of 18% of the cost of tuition.

Athletic Scholarships: Everything You Need to Know

A key part of the college sports recruiting process is understanding how athletic scholarships work. See how much money you can expect to be offered.

www.ncsasports.org

As a college football fan for 20 years I've always known full well that Ivy League schools don't hand out athletic scholarships. Hence why I didn't say they did. I merely included them as a small group of schools within the context of D1 hockey that aren't completely and cash-strapped and do not feel the burden of the substantial costs associated with college athletics.

I think perhaps the consecutive sentences may have thrown you off though, so to clarify the point of the second sentence is to illustrate how terribly few of the schools in D1 hockey are schools that don't have to sweat the expenses of college hockey

 

[WaW]

You didn't answer the question

I quite literally did.

Considering your reaction to my "full ride scholarships are few and far between" comment, tou seem to live in a fantasy world where you think full ride scholarships for D1 hockey are handed out like candy, so I dont think there's any further point in conversing with you. If you'd like to come back to reality maybe I'll change my mind.

 

[Otto]

I quite literally did.

Considering your reaction to my "full ride scholarships are few and far between" comment, tou seem to live in a fantasy world where you think full ride scholarships for D1 hockey are handed out like candy, so I dont think there's any further point in conversing with you. If you'd like to come back to reality maybe I'll change my mind.

No, you literally didn't. You made some baseless claims about NHL teams skirting the rules, and then went off about scholarships. You didn't at all provide an answer to the question why would NHL teams pay anything towards a players education. The suggestion makes zero sense. First, in order to even consider it, there would need to be something in writing like... a contract. Once a contract is signed the player is ineligible to play. But on top of that why would an NHL team potentially bury a prospect for additional years instead of having them play with their prospects and developing chemistry? As well, why would an NHL team want to have their draft pick go from playing 68+ games to about half that?

 

[OMG67]

As a college football fan for 20 years I've always known full well that Ivy League schools don't hand out athletic scholarships. Hence why I didn't say they did. I merely included them as a small group of schools within the context of D1 hockey that aren't completely and cash-strapped and do not feel the burden of the substantial costs associated with college athletics.

I think perhaps the consecutive sentences may have thrown you off though, so to clarify the point of the second sentence is to illustrate how terribly few of the schools in D1 hockey are schools that don't have to sweat the expenses of college hockey

I was making an effort to reinforce your original point regarding the lack of full ride scholarships.

 

[bigsportsfan]

The NCAA is increasing the number of full ride hockey scholarship that D1 schools can offer. Previously the number of full ride scholarships was capped at 18 but is increasing to 26 for next season. In a lot of cases, it won’t matter if an OHL player leaves the OHL before their career is done and loses their scholarship money since they will get a full ride NCAA scholarship anyways.

An Advisers Life - NCAA Roster Size Limits And Scholarships Increased For 2025-2026 In Landmark Settlement

In a landmark settlement agreement, the NCAA has increased college scholarship ice hockey numbers, and put strict limits on NCAA roster sizes beginning in the 2

thejuniorhockeynews.com

“Beginning in 2025-2026 NCAA ice hockey programs will be allowed to provide for twenty six full scholarships for each team. That is twenty six full rides which dramatically improves conditions for player who earn the opportunity to play Division One hockey.

With that increase in scholarships, comes strict roster limits for each team that will be set at twenty six player as well. This is important to note because teams have at times been known to roster as many as thirty players who may or may not have been active at any point during a season.”

 

[bigsportsfan]

Here is a good article about the NCAA’s decision to allow CHL players to play in the NCAA and how it will affect the CHL.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5828094/2024/11/07/ncaa-canadian-hockey-league-college-hockey-explained/

Here are some highlights from the article.

“It’s definitely the biggest shift that I’ve ever been a part of,” said one QMJHL coach. “I don’t see how you could get a bigger shift than what’s coming up in our world. It’s literally going to change everything.”

“On the positive side, we will get all the top young players coming to the CHL because we’re the best development option at that age,” said one WHL general manager.

There is also worry, though, about the impacts on all three leagues of potentially losing some top 18-, 19- and 20-year-old players after they’ve graduated from high school.

“NHL needs to get involved,” argued one OHL general manager. “If not, 18s and 19s could be jumping ship.”

“Is it just we can take their players and they can take our players just like the NCAA portal is now?” asked one OHL general manager.

“Will colleges have to pay a release like we have to if we want to go get a player?” asked a QMJHL coach.

Some CHL coaches and executives aren’t expecting an exodus, though. “There’s an assumption that I’ve encountered over the years that everyone wants to jump to the NCAA but there are some players who aren’t interested at all…”

CHL coaches and executives anticipate they’ll have to build their teams differently moving forward, too, unable to risk counting on older players sticking around to help them contend.

“You’ll have to win now with high-end 17-year-olds and some really good 18s instead of really good 18s and 19s,” said a QMJHL coach.

One QMJHL coach also wondered whether the league would give teams more roster spots for 16-year-olds to offset the loss of some of their older players.

 

[bigsportsfan]

Here is a good article about the NCAA’s decision to allow CHL players to play in the NCAA and how it will affect the CHL.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5828094/2024/11/07/ncaa-canadian-hockey-league-college-hockey-explained/

Here are some highlights from the article.

“It’s definitely the biggest shift that I’ve ever been a part of,” said one QMJHL coach. “I don’t see how you could get a bigger shift than what’s coming up in our world. It’s literally going to change everything.”

“On the positive side, we will get all the top young players coming to the CHL because we’re the best development option at that age,” said one WHL general manager.

There is also worry, though, about the impacts on all three leagues of potentially losing some top 18-, 19- and 20-year-old players after they’ve graduated from high school.

“NHL needs to get involved,” argued one OHL general manager. “If not, 18s and 19s could be jumping ship.”

“Is it just we can take their players and they can take our players just like the NCAA portal is now?” asked one OHL general manager.

“Will colleges have to pay a release like we have to if we want to go get a player?” asked a QMJHL coach.

CHL coaches and executives anticipate they’ll have to build their teams differently moving forward, too, unable to risk counting on older players sticking around to help them contend.

“You’ll have to win now with high-end 17-year-olds and some really good 18s instead of really good 18s and 19s,” said a QMJHL coach.

One QMJHL coach also wondered whether the league would give teams more roster spots for 16-year-olds to offset the loss of some of their older players.

This is what I have been saying all along. The OHL will get more high end 16 year olds since the OHL gives more ice time to 16 year olds compared to the USHL. However, it will be more difficult to build a team over multiple seasons since some 18 and 19 year olds will leave for the NCAA. The CHL coaches and GM’s are concerned. It’s silly to think that this won’t have both a positive and negative effect on the OHL.

 

[Pens2021]

I’m going to dip my toe in here to help with a few points to move the conversation along.

- the ncaa settlement, which hasn’t been formally approved, but agreed upon does cap rosters at 26. It does not require teams to meet this limit with scholarships though. The settlement and all teams that opt in will be required to share revenue so this will limit adding scholarships as it is a budget line item. Universities who opt in will need to trim expenses. There will be very few schools that will be adding men’s scholarships outside of football and basketball because of Title IX. Added scholarships reduces your revenue share amount. Subtracting scholarships does not, and this is an important point. It is optional if you want to add to your scholarships, not required. The only requirement is you do not exceed the roster cap with athletes whether they are on aid or not.

- there has not been a ruling on if student athletes will be employees yet. If they are then this may restrict international students on a student visa. This is similar to NIL restrictions but should not be confused with NIL, this is the revenue distribution part of the NCAA settlement. I can’t speculate on what this will or will not mean, it is just an issue that has not been ruled on by the government yet.

- Universities can opt out of the settlement. This is a likely option for schools who only have a few division I sports. Many schools that have D1 hockey have other sports that are D2 or D3. The important point here is that if you opt in you opt in for all sports and cannot be D1 in some and D2 in others. I assume this played a part in AIC dropping down to D2 hockey the other day. Opting out keeps your scholarship limit capped at the previous number but puts no restriction on your roster size.

- The settlement allows for scholarships in all sports to be broken up into fractions. So you could be offered 1% to 100%. In state tuition is usually between 30-40% depending on the school. International or non state resident tuition is between 60-70%. Room and board adds another 10-15%. The remaining percentage accounts for “cost of attendance” and books and is more like a stipend.

- Ivy league schools are non scholarship and give aid based on family financial need with a financial aid profile. This will not change even if they opt in to revenue sharing.

- the NCAA has no connection to the IIHF, USA Hockey or Hockey Canada or the NHL so is not restricted by any and all transfer arrangements. An NHL contract would however make the player ineligible for NCAA sports.

Hope this helps, fun conversation to read