CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

[Hockeyville USA]

There it is, Malcolm Spence to Michigan!

 

[WarriorofTime]

De-commits/change of plans aren’t anything new so its weird to pretend they are.

 

[Playmaker09]

I assume players who've signed their ELC can't make the move from the CHL to the NCAA right?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I assume players who've signed their ELC can't make the move from the CHL to the NCAA right?

Correct. We'll have MLB style occurrences where CHLers have NCAA commitments and then sign ELCs after being drafted and forego the NCAA. Happens in baseball all the time with guys drafted out of HS (who have NCAA commitments as fall back options) and then just sign right after being drafted. Difference is baseball players have to choose whether to sign or not or else the team that drafted them loses their rights, whereas in hockey, they keep their rights for 4 years.

 

[4thline]

If I was the CHL commissioner, in addition to things that I could directly negotiate I would also be pushing the NHL to increase the compensation for ELC players by a significant amount, to get them to sign ELC's as soon as possible. Probably the NHL understands that it's going to have to make AHL life a little more financially appealing for guys on ELC's now that NIL is becoming more established.

It's pretty clear who does and does not drive the bus in the NHLPA when you look at ELC Max, NHL Min, and ELC Minor League limit and how stagnant they've been relative to salaries at large.

05-06- recent 1st overall pick Sidney Crosby enters the league on a 850k base, 3.7 Max bonus cap hit - 2.2 and 9.5% of the 39m cap respectively

2024-25- recent 1st overall pick Macklin Celebrini enters the league on a 950k base, 4.475 max bonus cap hit - 1.1 and 5.1 % of the 88m cap respectively.

Signing bonuses are capped at 10% of base.

Minors salary only went from 62.5k to 85k, league minimum from 450 to 775.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It's pretty clear who does and does not drive the bus in the NHLPA when you look at ELC Max, NHL Min, and ELC Minor League limit and how stagnant they've been relative to salaries at large.

05-06- recent 1st overall pick Sidney Crosby enters the league on a 850k base, 3.7 Max bonus cap hit - 2.2 and 9.5% of the 39m cap respectively

2024-25- recent 1st overall pick Macklin Celebrini enters the league on a 950k base, 4.475 max bonus cap hit - 1.1 and 5.1 % of the 88m cap respectively.

Signing bonuses are capped at 10% of base.

Minors salary only went from 62.5k to 85k, league minimum from 450 to 775.

They ought to tie ELC comp to a % of cap.

 

[4thline]

They ought to tie ELC comp to a % of cap.

You'd think- but more ELC means less money for the voting members, and less of a crutch for GM's tp build their teams.

Really the only incentive to change it would be if it gets too low and starts impairing recruitment, more guys waiting to be redrafted/ go UFA because the minors money/ signing bonus isnt worth it

 

[Blue and Green]

It's pretty clear who does and does not drive the bus in the NHLPA when you look at ELC Max, NHL Min, and ELC Minor League limit and how stagnant they've been relative to salaries at large.

05-06- recent 1st overall pick Sidney Crosby enters the league on a 850k base, 3.7 Max bonus cap hit - 2.2 and 9.5% of the 39m cap respectively

2024-25- recent 1st overall pick Macklin Celebrini enters the league on a 950k base, 4.475 max bonus cap hit - 1.1 and 5.1 % of the 88m cap respectively.

Signing bonuses are capped at 10% of base.

Minors salary only went from 62.5k to 85k, league minimum from 450 to 775.

I'm quite aware of this. However, NIL might act as an impetus to force some increases.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Jaden Lipinski (2004, WHL, Vancouver Giants, Calgary 2023 4th rounder) commits to Maine.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Beau Jelsma (2004, OHL, Barrie Colts) commits to Providence College

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Rylen Roersma (2004, WHL, Edmonton Oil Kings) commits to Alaska Fairbanks

 

[Wieters]

The new reality of recruiting out of the CHL.....the elite talent is to tempting to pass up but the culture and mindset is different and defections to the pros is real.

There is nothing new or different about NCAA commits deciding to change schools, change leagues, or sign ELCs. The availability of these options to the prospects and freedom to choose between them without an organization controlling your fate is one of the benefits of going the college route in the first place.

 

[landy92mack29]

great kid just unfortunate he didn't grow more.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Antonin Verreault (2004, QMJHL, Rouyn Noranda Huskies) commits to Quinnipiac

 

[rsteen]

You'd think- but more ELC means less money for the voting members, and less of a crutch for GM's tp build their teams.

Really the only incentive to change it would be if it gets too low and starts impairing recruitment, more guys waiting to be redrafted/ go UFA because the minors money/ signing bonus isnt worth it

Raising the cap for minor league compensation only means less money for the owners, as it doesn't count on the NHL cap. And a say 500K salary to a couple of NCAA signees in the AHL is pocket change to most owners.

 

[Leviathan899]

Was mostly Corso saying players goal was to sign an ELC as quickly as possible and wouldn't leave their junior team because they made friends.

That’s still going to be the case for a lot of players. We just saw battaglia and Walton sign ELC’s a month or so ago. Luca Marrelli signed his ELC not too long ago as well. These are just off the top of my head. Some guys will definitely go ncaa though, and you will see more OA eligible players who are NHL drafted and undersized like Misa and Romani, but many OA’s will stay in the OHL as well.

There's always been attrition of 19-turning-20 year olds who decide to get their schooling underway (or are just done with junior hockey) instead of returning for their overage year or dropping down to Jr. A, but now there's another, more attractive than USports or Jr. A, avenue for those players if they like what an NCAA team is telling them.

I think the player's and his CHL team's situation are going to be big factors as well. We may see players leave teams that are going to be bad but be more willing to stay if the team is going to be good.

That's why it's important to remember that most of these older CHL players aren't moving to the NCAA as NHL prospects if they haven't already been drafted. I would wager that if the NCAA wasn't an option, most would be back for an OA year.

You will see a lot of players use the threat of ncaa and even committing to schools as a ploy to get themselves traded out of situations they don’t like.

 

[Kingpin794]

That’s still going to be the case for a lot of players. We just saw battaglia and Walton sign ELC’s a month or so ago. Luca Marrelli signed his ELC not too long ago as well. These are just off the top of my head. Some guys will definitely go ncaa though, and you will see more OA eligible players who are NHL drafted and undersized like Misa and Romani, but many OA’s will stay in the OHL as well.

You will see a lot of players use the threat of ncaa and even committing to schools as a ploy to get themselves traded out of situations they don’t like.

Not saying that is the case with Spence but Erie is going to be BAD BAD for the next couple seasons. If he does end up signing and forgoing the NCAA, he's getting moved right away out of Erie.

 

[jtechkid68]

Not saying that is the case with Spence but Erie is going to be BAD BAD for the next couple seasons. If he does end up signing and forgoing the NCAA, he's getting moved right away out of Erie.

Yes , at what point does CHL start crying that their “ star “ players are heading to college ! This will hurt lot of teams competitiveness, attendance going forward . Then I wonder if Canadiens say why are USA kids on our teams when their Colleges are taking our best players . At the end I wouldn’t be shocked if everybody in Hockey would like to go back to old system .

 

[Kingpin794]

Yes , at what point does CHL start crying that their “ star “ players are heading to college !

The CHL leadership probably won't. Reactionary fans will. But that's always going to be the case.

This will hurt lot of teams competitiveness, attendance going forward .

Only if you have a bad GM that doesn't plan things accordingly. Its cyclical. Bad team. People don't want to show up. You get better. People show up. If you're bad for a long stretch of time, that's a you problem. In Erie's case their GM fumbled the construction of the roster long before the rule change. That's their own fault.

Then I wonder if Canadiens say why are USA kids on our teams why are USA kids on our teams when their Colleges are taking our best players

Again there's always going to be reactionary types. The leagues shouldn't worry about keeping them happy.

 

[2Mototik2]

The CHL leadership probably won't. Reactionary fans will. But that's always going to be the case.


Only if you have a bad GM that doesn't plan things accordingly. Its cyclical. Bad team. People don't want to show up. You get better. People show up. If you're bad for a long stretch of time, that's a you problem. In Erie's case their GM fumbled the construction of the roster long before the rule change. That's their own fault.


Again there's always going to be reactionary types. The leagues shouldn't worry about keeping them happy.

I do think most CHL fans are going to be accepting and rooting for the 19's who decide to leave for the NCAA instead of returning for their OA as there's already so much OA turnover and players not returning as an OA for one reason or another anyways. Plus, I know there is a contingent of fans who think that the OA is usually a weak spot on a team and if a player is playing as an OA, it's because they aren't good enough to have moved on.

I also think while some fans may be disappointed with the McKenna level players who may leave for their D-Y (for how many that'll truly be), they'll eventually be understanding that a player of that calibre has exceeded what the CHL can offer.

It'll probably be the players like the Spence's who leave in their D+1 or then players that may leave in their D+2 that will the, quote unquote, "controversial" ones, but even those come with the caveat of how good the CHL team is expected to be that year.

I will say, coming from someone who has been a CHL fan from childhood into currently my late 20's, this whole CHL-NCAA business has really shown a light on how few people are really knowledgeable about the CHL besides knowing of top prospects.

 

[kyle44]

I do think most CHL fans are going to be accepting and rooting for the 19's who decide to leave for the NCAA instead of returning for their OA as there's already so much OA turnover and players not returning as an OA for one reason or another anyways. Plus, I know there is a contingent of fans who think that the OA is usually a weak spot on a team and if a player is playing as an OA, it's because they aren't good enough to have moved on.

I also think while some fans may be disappointed with the McKenna level players who may leave for their D-Y (for how many that'll truly be), they'll eventually be understanding that a player of that calibre has exceeded what the CHL can offer.

It'll probably be the players like the Spence's who leave in their D+1 or then players that may leave in their D+2 that will the, quote unquote, "controversial" ones, but even those come with the caveat of how good the CHL team is expected to be that year.

As a CHL fan living in a CHL city, I'm completely fine with it. I am happy some of these players will be challenged against older competition.

While you can't prove a counterfactual, it will be interesting to see how much of a step some of these guys take in their 19-20 year old seasons compared to if they had played a 3rd or 4th year in the CHL. IMO, it will help them in the long run and in their transition to pro. I think it will also allow NHL teams to let these players develop more in the NCAA instead of rushing them to the NHL, which will help them and Canada's World Junior team.

Depending on how many make the jump to NCAA, the quality of CHL play could be reduced, which could harm some CHL players, but it could also give some a larger opportunity than would otherwise be the case.

 

[2Mototik2]

While you can't prove a counterfactual, it will be interesting to see how much of a step some of these guys take in their 19-20 year old seasons compared to if they had played a 3rd or 4th year in the CHL. IMO, it will help them in the long run and in their transition to pro. I think it will also allow NHL teams to let these players develop more in the NCAA instead of rushing them to the NHL, which will help them and Canada's World Junior team.

I think this will also have to depend on the type of players that move to the NCAA because not all of the players, especially this first wave, are of pro-calibre and it most likely won't make a difference to their pro potential if they go to the NCAA or not for their OA season.

I've been harping a bit on this point, but I feel there really needs to be a separation between those CHL players who are just moving on to the university level and those who are leaving for the NCAA for their professional aspirations. Players may leave for the NCAA in their OA year whereas they may have stayed for their OA year if USports was still the only option, but the vast majority are still going to play the same amount of NHL games (0) no matter which path they had chosen.

 

[S E P H]

Antonin Verreault (2004, QMJHL, Rouyn Noranda Huskies) commits to Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac has always scouted well in Quebec.

 

[wetcoast]

Yes , at what point does CHL start crying that their “ star “ players are heading to college ! This will hurt lot of teams competitiveness, attendance going forward . Then I wonder if Canadiens say why are USA kids on our teams when their Colleges are taking our best players . At the end I wouldn’t be shocked if everybody in Hockey would like to go back to old system .

I don't have a running count but most of the players are 2004s and some 2005s that can play OA but see the NCAA as an opportunity.

That being said some of them are going to be disappointed in their deployment, a lot of balls in the air here and no one knows how its going to shake out.

 

[wetcoast]

Quinnipiac has always scouted well in Quebec.

This is the type of guy the NCAA makes sense for as his transition to the AHL might be hard and small skilled players can showcase and then maybe move onto Europe.