CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[Corso]

Because most everyone agrees that the quality/depth of college hockey will improve from this change, there's a plausible reality where the NCAA becomes a rite of passage for most NHL players in a way that it isn't now. In that case, it will be normal/expected for players to move on from the CHL to college hockey once they are NCAA eligible.

If, as you're suggesting, there are CHL teams actively discouraging players from moving on to a league that the player has an interest/commitment to, that can match their resources/developmental ability, is a step-up in difficulty, and is a normal stage of NHLers development arc, then are they acting in the players' interests?

That is if the NCAA does in fact become "a rite passage for most NHL players" because as of now it is not. What the rule change has done so far, is allow mid tier programs access to a larger pool of talent that will help with parity. It has not so far, shifted NHL bound players away from the CHL to the NCAA. My main argument is that the CHL will do what they have to do to make sure they are the preferred development to the pro ranks, They are willing to make changes to the NHL-CHL agreement to in fact make sure players sign ELCs as early as possible and keep high end players away from the NCAA.

You may be right and the NCAA does in fact become the preferred route for elite players to the pros but I wouldn't bet money on that just yet.

From reading the tea leaves, my bet would be that the NCAA becomes the primary route for those drafted in the latter rounds but need the extra development time before entering the pro ranks while most of the first rounders and a good number of second rounders bypass the NCAA all together.

 

[Wieters]

That is if the NCAA does in fact become "a rite passage for most NHL players" because as of now it is not. What the rule change has done so far, is allow mid tier programs access to a larger pool of talent that will help with parity. It has not so far, shifted NHL bound players away from the CHL to the NCAA. My main argument is that the CHL will do what they have to do to make sure they are the preferred development to the pro ranks, They are willing to make changes to the NHL-CHL agreement to in fact make sure players sign ELCs as early as possible and keep high end players away from the NCAA.

You may be right and the NCAA does in fact become the preferred route for elite players to the pros but I wouldn't bet money on that just yet.

From reading the tea leaves, my bet would be that the NCAA becomes the primary route for those drafted in the latter rounds but need the extra development time before entering the pro ranks while most of the first rounders and a good number of second rounders bypass the NCAA all together.

The NCAA is already a step-up in difficulty vis-a-vis the CHL simply because there are older players. By your own admission, the quality of the NCAA will now go up because there will be more players who were drafted later going to play college hockey than there were before. So now you have a league that maintains its "advantage" of having older players but is now in addition to that improving its pool of players/quality level.

Would this not make the NCAA incontrovertibly a more pro-ready league than the CHL? If so, why would a player--who has already talked to college coaches, gone on college visits, made relationships with players at their preferred college program, and made a public committment to a school as now made possible by this new change--forego the NCAA to stay in the CHL? Because the CHL is begging him not to leave? Should prospects/advisors be listening to CHL organizations that are making appeals that seem to only benefit themselves?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I get the sense that Corso's CHL connections seem wildly unprepared for a possibility that the NCAA programs are going to come sniffing around the 18/19 year old drafted players and try to get them to jump ship to college if they're all thinking the logical end result of this is hardly anyone good goes to play NCAA Hockey like we're back in 1985. If they're just relying on a SPA to injunct them for playing anyone else but an NHL team, that'll be a tough battle and could get ugly.

It's probably not in anyone's interest to engage in a border war to try and destroy the junior/development models in the other country. Just would be a bad look for North American hockey as a whole, and doesn't seem like something the NHL would be too thrilled about. Grassroot hockey in the USA goes a long way to ensuring NHL arenas are full and people are watching NHL games as part of U.S. television deals.

 

[Corso]

The NCAA is already a step-up in difficulty vis-a-vis the CHL simply because there are older players. By your own admission, the quality of the NCAA will now go up because there will be more players who were drafted later going to play college hockey than there were before. So now you have a league that maintains its "advantage" of having older players but is now in addition to that improving its pool of players/quality level.

Would this not make the NCAA incontrovertibly a more pro-ready league than the CHL? If so, why would a player--who has already talked to college coaches, gone on college visits, made relationships with players at their preferred college program, and made a public committment to a school as now made possible by this new change--forego the NCAA to stay in the CHL? Because the CHL is begging him not to leave? Should prospects/advisors be listening to CHL organizations that are making appeals that seem to only benefit themselves?

What you have to realize is that the very best players will be tracked to play in the AHL at the age of 19 and 20. From what I've heard from reputable sources, is that the CHL is trying to get a deal struck with the NHL that somewhat resembles what you find in Europe like the SHL and the various junior clubs; where players will be loaned to AHL/NHL clubs for a certain number of games or until a certain point in the year. Why would the CHL want this? It would allow players the opportunity to play against much tougher competition, even more so than what they would find in the NCAA, all the while maintaining ties with their junior club.
So a Liam Greentree, who did quite well during his draft season may not want to play his D+1 for Windsor and is thinking about jumping to Michigan due to older competition and all that. Well now, he has the option to sign and play at least part of the season in the AHL, against even stronger competition. That is the angle that the CHL is going for.

I get the sense that Corso's CHL connections seem wildly unprepared for a possibility that the NCAA programs are going to come sniffing around the 18/19 year old drafted players and try to get them to jump ship to college if they're all thinking the logical end result of this is hardly anyone good goes to play NCAA Hockey like we're back in 1985. If they're just relying on a SPA to injunct them for playing anyone else but an NHL team, that'll be a tough battle and could get ugly.

It's probably not in anyone's interest to engage in a border war to try and destroy the junior/development models in the other country. Just would be a bad look for North American hockey as a whole, and doesn't seem like something the NHL would be too thrilled about. Grassroot hockey in the USA goes a long way to ensuring NHL arenas are full and people are watching NHL games as part of U.S. television deals.

Not at all, I've been arguing that there will in fact be players who leave the CHL early to play in the NCAA and the CHL is also aware of that. That is why they are offering modified standard contracts to players. What NCAA fans have to come to terms with, however, is that the NCAA may not become the top of the amateur pyramid that many college hockey fans assume it will be.

BTW, my CHL connections are far and few between.

 

[Wieters]

I get the sense that Corso's CHL connections seem wildly unprepared for a possibility that the NCAA programs are going to come sniffing around the 18/19 year old drafted players and try to get them to jump ship to college if they're all thinking the logical end result of this is hardly anyone good goes to play NCAA Hockey like we're back in 1985. If they're just relying on a SPA to injunct them for playing anyone else but an NHL team, that'll be a tough battle and could get ugly.

It's probably not in anyone's interest to engage in a border war to try and destroy the junior/development models in the other country. Just would be a bad look for North American hockey as a whole, and doesn't seem like something the NHL would be too thrilled about. Grassroot hockey in the USA goes a long way to ensuring NHL arenas are full and people are watching NHL games as part of U.S. television deals.

And the thing is, vis-a-vis the CHL/NCAA, there is room for them to share the top prospects since kids can't go to college at 16. It doesn't have to be this cutthroat zero-sum game its being made out to be.

What you have to realize is that the very best players will be tracked to play in the AHL at the age of 19 and 20. From what I've heard from reputable sources, is that the CHL is trying to get a deal struck with the NHL that somewhat resembles what you find in Europe like the SHL and the various junior clubs; where players will be loaned to AHL/NHL clubs for a certain number of games or until a certain point in the year. Why would the CHL want this? It would allow players the opportunity to play against much tougher competition, even more so than what they would find in the NCAA, all the while maintaining ties with their junior club.
So a Liam Greentree, who did quite well during his draft season may not want to play his D+1 for Windsor and is thinking about jumping to Michigan due to older competition and all that. Well now, he has the option to sign and play at least part of the season in the AHL, against even stronger competition. That is the angle that the CHL is going for.

And do the players' preferences come into this calculus at all? Because it's one thing to say that a kid wants to stay close to home with a CHL team, but now we're assuming that a player would forego a cushy college campus of their choosing to go ride the bus around to AHL arenas in Pennsylvania that they didn't willingly elect? Where do the desires of the actual kids come in in all of these machinations?

One of the biggest considerations for kids in the NCAA right now who have the option to sign an ELC is that they're going to stay on the NHL team and not get jerked around the AHL. If being sent down to the farm is a possibility, many kids would rather stay in school until they have a better chance of sticking in the league.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Because most everyone agrees that the quality/depth of college hockey will improve from this change, there's a plausible reality where the NCAA becomes a rite of passage for most NHL players in a way that it isn't now. In that case, it will be normal/expected for players to move on from the CHL to college hockey once they are NCAA eligible.

If, as you're suggesting, there are CHL teams actively discouraging players from moving on to a league that the player has an interest/commitment to, that can match their resources/developmental ability, is a step-up in difficulty, and is a normal stage of NHLers development arc, then are they acting in the players' interests?

There is no plausible reality this happens.

 

[Wieters]

There is no plausible reality this happens.

And it's just that simple, folks!

 

[Blue and Green]

And the thing is, vis-a-vis the CHL/NCAA, there is room for them to share the top prospects since kids can't go to college at 16. It doesn't have to be this cutthroat zero-sum game its being made out to be.

It absolutely is a zero-sum game at age 18 and 19. And since the CHL is an age 16-20 league while the NCAA is essentially 18-24, there's a whole lot more at stake for the CHL when it comes to losing 18YO and 19YO players.

 

[Corso]

What you have to realize is that the very best players will be tracked to play in the AHL at the age of 19 and 20. From what I've heard from reputable sources, is that the CHL is trying to get a deal struck with the NHL that somewhat resembles what you find in Europe like the SHL and the various junior clubs; where players will be loaned to AHL/NHL clubs for a certain number of games or until a certain point in the year. Why would the CHL want this? It would allow players the opportunity to play against much tougher competition, even more so than what they would find in the NCAA, all the while maintaining ties with their junior club.
So a Liam Greentree, who did quite well during his draft season may not want to play his D+1 for Windsor and is thinking about jumping to Michigan due to older competition and all that. Well now, he has the option to sign and play at least part of the season in the AHL, against even stronger competition. That is the angle that the CHL is going for.



Not at all, I've been arguing that there will in fact be players who leave the CHL early to play in the NCAA and the CHL is also aware of that. That is why they are offering modified standard contracts to players. What NCAA fans have to come to terms with, however, is that the NCAA may not become the top of the amateur pyramid that many college hockey fans assume it will be.

And the thing is, vis-a-vis the CHL/NCAA, there is room for them to share the top prospects since kids can't go to college at 16. It doesn't have to be this cutthroat zero-sum game its being made out to be.

And do the players' preferences come into this calculus at all? Because it's one thing to say that a kid wants to stay close to home with a CHL team, but now we're assuming that a player would forego a cushy college campus of their choosing to go ride the bus around to AHL arenas in Pennsylvania that they didn't willingly elect? Where do the desires of the actual kids come in in all of these machinations?

One of the biggest considerations for kids in the NCAA right now who have the option to sign an ELC is that they're going to stay on the NHL team and not get jerked around the AHL. If being sent down to the farm is a possibility, many kids would rather stay in school until they have a better chance of sticking in the league.

Oh yes, and you can bet your behind that this is very much noticed by the NHL and there are more than just a couple of them that it doesn't quite sit well with. I can tell you with absolute certainty that NHL teams do not want to hear players say, "Nope I'm going to elect to stay in a cushy college campus rather than ride the bus in the AHL!" (not that they don't rid the bus in the NCAA btw).

Look, there are some players that do want to experience the college life and they will do so. There are other players that want to play pro hockey first and foremost. I stand by my prediction that the players who want to be pros first and foremost will outweigh those that want to experience the college game and life before the pros.

It absolutely is a zero-sum game at age 18 and 19. And since the CHL is an age 16-20 league while the NCAA is essentially 18-24, there's a whole lot more at stake for the CHL when it comes to losing 18YO and 19YO players.

And that is why they will do everything to make sure that it does not happen

 

[Bjorn Le]

And it's just that simple, folks!

You've been sipping on Naurato's kool-aid too much. The jist if your argument seems to be that the "college lifestyle" will be too seductive for prospects to resist and will result in, on masse, drafted prospects delaying their ELC and joining college programs. Besides the U.S.-born players, there is little affinity for U.S. universities in Canada and Europe beyond the top academic schools, most of which do not have top hockey programs or do not offer athletic scholarships.

On top of that, NHL teams will not and will never want the bulk of their prospects playing NCAA because it keeps them out of their system longer and heightens the risk that they will not report. The NHL is a young league.

 

[Wieters]

You've been sipping on Naurato's kool-aid too much. The jist if your argument seems to be that the "college lifestyle" will be too seductive for prospects to resist and will result in, on masse, drafted prospects delaying their ELC and joining college programs.

I'm not making any argument. Unlike many of the posters here, I do not claim to know what will happen. And also unlike the other posters here, I am citing the words of people who are actually and actively involved in this process like Brandon Naurato.

Besides the U.S.-born players, there is little affinity for U.S. universities in Canada and Europe beyond the top academic schools, most of which do not have top hockey programs or do not offer athletic scholarships.

Multiple ivy league schools play Division I hockey and regularly have NHL drafted players: Harvard, Yale, Cornell, and Dartmouth. Three of the college hockey blue bloods--Michigan, Boston College, Boston University--are ranked within the top-50 of national universities. There are plenty of other good schools that play Division I hockey. Part of the issue here is is likely that you seem to be totally unfamiliar with the college landscape, which explains the disconnect.

 

[Wieters]

It absolutely is a zero-sum game at age 18 and 19. And since the CHL is an age 16-20 league while the NCAA is essentially 18-24, there's a whole lot more at stake for the CHL when it comes to losing 18YO and 19YO players.

Oh yes, and you can bet your behind that this is very much noticed by the NHL and there are more than just a couple of them that it doesn't quite sit well with. I can tell you with absolute certainty that NHL teams do not want to hear players say, "Nope I'm going to elect to stay in a cushy college campus rather than ride the bus in the AHL!" (not that they don't rid the bus in the NCAA btw).

Look, there are some players that do want to experience the college life and they will do so. There are other players that want to play pro hockey first and foremost. I stand by my prediction that the players who want to be pros first and foremost will outweigh those that want to experience the college game and life before the pros.


And that is why they will do everything to make sure that it does not happen

I can see why the CHL/NHL are threatened by the NCAA. It seems farfetched that they would be in cahoots to conspire against the NCAA, but I don't claim to know if that's actually happening or even likely.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I can see why the CHL/NHL are threatened by the NCAA. It seems farfetched that they would be in cahoots to conspire against the NCAA, but I don't claim to know if that's actually happening or even likely.

It also doesn't make a lot of sense as NHL teams don't seem adverse to drafting players that go down the college route, once in a while a highly coveted player does leverage the right to leave via the Free Agency mechanism, but if the NHL cared so much about that, they'd just amend the CBA on that point and for the most part, teams keep on keeping on in terms of drafting NCAA-bound players without much fear. That they're looking at this as an opportunity to sledge hammer NCAA Hockey from getting any NHL prospects seems idk.. unrealistic.

 

[Bjorn Le]

I'm not making any argument. Unlike many of the posters here, I do not claim to know what will happen. And also unlike the other posters here, I am citing the words of people who are actually and actively involved in this process like Brandon Naurato.

Multiple ivy league schools play Division I hockey and regularly have NHL drafted players: Harvard, Yale, Cornell, and Dartmouth. Three of the college hockey blue bloods--Michigan, Boston College, Boston University--are ranked within the top-50 of national universities. There are plenty of other good schools that play Division I hockey. Part of the issue here is is likely that you seem to be totally unfamiliar with the college landscape, which explains the disconnect.

Brandon Naurato is involved in this process because he is an NCAA coach with a very, very biased opinion of what this change means for the sport. Every word he speaks with respect to the change in the eligibility of CHL players is made for the purpose of attracting more and better players to play for the team he coaches. I don't see you quoting Dale Hunter or any other CHL/NHL personality for the converse perspective.

None of Harvard, Yale, Cornell, or Dartmouth are top D1 hockey schools and never will be due to their focus on academics/non-sport extracurriculars (and no athletic scholarships to boot). There have been no impact NHL players or prospects out of Yale, Cornell, or Dartmouth for many years and really only Adam Fox is a recent highly regarded impact player that has come out of Harvard (Vesey was highly touted coming out of Harvard but did live up to expectations in the NHL).

The actual top hockey schools are universities that Canadians outside sports have no knowledge of and even if they do, don't care that they're top 50 U.S. universities. No Canadian is going to see Boston College and grow up wanting to go there. Yes Canadians grow up wanting to go to Harvard, no they don't grow up wanting to go to Boston University or Michigan. Europeans even less so.

You are severely overrating the college landscape and the college experience.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No, it isn’t and you guys repeating this doesn’t make it true. CHL has far more high end skill and overall talent than the entire NCAA has combined. Evan Werner is an 03 and Michigan’s 2nd leading scoring, he’s also 5’7 and couldn’t make the CHL during his 16-19 year old seasons. Simply not skilled enough. The best players in all of college hockey are all junior eligible guys as well, dispelling the myth older players are in fact better. College is a good route for those who need more time to fill out and get stronger. Yeah yeah, people will say well Celebrini, Power and Fantilli went to NCAA and they’re elite players. Of course, but for those 3, you can name 10 more who went CHL and are just as good. Plus, once Perrault, Hagens and Leonard leave BC after this season, there’s going to be a significant drop in talent in the ncaa. Think about it, the 06 NTDP team wasn’t very good outside of Hagens, Eiserman and Hensler, which affects the quality of the ncaa. The 07’s coming in next year from the NTDP aren’t good at all, and these are the best 07 Americans coming in to fill ncaa rosters, at the big schools to boot. The 08 NTDP team just came 5th at the U17’s and outside of Berchild, Beuker and a couple of others, not a high end group either. Naurato pumping up Michigan is no surprise, but he’s an arrogant SOB and someone who will be exposed in a few years as a bad coach, but the resources and big name appeal of Michigan saves him for now.

Oh come on, this is just pure Canadian homerism wish and hope. Beuker isn’t even one of the best players.

To your last point, that’s true. But the recent draft results, 19 Canadians (17 from the CHL) compared to 4 Americans in the first round and less than 40 kids drafted in total shows that the chl is in a good place, and it’s USA hockey that’s on notice. That’s also why this move was welcomed, ncaa teams know usa hockey at the youth level has plateaud and isn’t pumping out the requisite amount of elite talent. Sure they’ll have the odd year like the 01’s and the 04’s, but overall it’s a regressive program and college hockey is getting worse, not better. There’s like 8 good minor hockey programs in the entire USA, and that’s due to the high end costs and travel issues, which I get. But you can’t sustain a ncaa with over 60 D1 teams when your drafts look like that and the youth model is falling apart. Hence the CHL players coming. You see guys like Donovan McCoy, a good OHL’er for sure but not high end commit to a big time Hockey East school and will probably be a top 5 D in college hockey next season. Cedrick Guindon commits to Vermont and could be a premier player j hockey east next season.

Are you seriously trying to argue one draft is the trend but like 5-10 years prior doesn’t tell the trend?

 

[Wieters]

The actual top hockey schools are universities that Canadians outside sports have no knowledge of and even if they do, don't care that they're top 50 U.S. universities. No Canadian is going to see Boston College and grow up wanting to go there. Yes Canadians grow up wanting to go to Harvard, no they don't grow up wanting to go to Boston University or Michigan. Europeans even less so.

Says you? Are you a 16 year old Canadian kid in 2024 who is following his peers on Instagram who are posting their experiences at American colleges while simultaneously being sold on the college experience by recruiters? Because otherwise, you're just projecting your own biases and opinions, which I find no value in and don't care to engage with any further.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Says you? Are you a 16 year old Canadian kid in 2024 who is following his peers on Instagram who are posting their experiences at American colleges while simultaneously being sold on the college experience by recruiters? Because otherwise, you're just projecting your own biases and opinions, which I find no value in and don't care to engage with any further.

Buddy, you act like kids playing in the CHL are living in a Soviet barracks for four years. They have a great experience with plenty of fun, and in many cases, have a lot more freedom than college hockey players.

Talk about projecting your own biases, you're the one talking about the "college experience" like it's something every hockey player dreams of from birth and can't wait to do. You don't seem to have a clue what it's actually like for hockey players that don't go the NCAA route.

 

[Wieters]

It also doesn't make a lot of sense as NHL teams don't seem adverse to drafting players that go down the college route, once in a while a highly coveted player does leverage the right to leave via the Free Agency mechanism, but if the NHL cared so much about that, they'd just amend the CBA on that point and for the most part, teams keep on keeping on in terms of drafting NCAA-bound players without much fear. That they're looking at this as an opportunity to sledge hammer NCAA Hockey from getting any NHL prospects seems idk.. unrealistic.

Also would seemingly go against the NHL's mandate to try to grow the game in the US, where most of their franchises are located.

 

[Corso]

I can see why the CHL/NHL are threatened by the NCAA. It seems farfetched that they would be in cahoots to conspire against the NCAA, but I don't claim to know if that's actually happening or even likely.

No cahoots just business. Look, the NHL will look at the NCAA as the best fit for those that need a longer runway but they will want more control over the absolute best prospects in terms of where they will play.

There are advantages to playing D-1 hockey but there are also inherent advantages to playing CHL hockey and bypassing the NCAA all together. I find it improbable that the NCAA will end up being the top of the amateur hockey pyramid when this all shakes out.

Also would seemingly go against the NHL's mandate to try to grow the game in the US, where most of their franchises are located.

You do realize that there are American CHL franchises and that the CHL is in an active process of further expanding into the U.S. right? The NCAA is not the only way to grow the game.

 

[Wieters]

You do realize that there are American CHL franchises and that the CHL is in an active process of further expanding into the U.S. right? The NCAA is not the only way to grow the game.

Ask yourself which path you think is more likely to convert more American non-hockey fans into hockey fans: a) a Canadian-based, non-NHL affiliated teenage hockey league versus b) college hockey programs.

 

[Corso]

Ask yourself which path you think is more likely to convert more American non-hockey fans into hockey fans: a) a Canadian-based, non-NHL affiliated teenage hockey league versus b) college hockey programs.

Hockey is a niche sport and any and all forms of hockey can help grow the game. College hockey has been around for over a century and yet still remains a relatively minor niche sport within the NCAA structure. College Hockey Inc was tasked to "grow the game" yet has it really? Has any big name program since Arizona State really picked up the mantle?

Expansion of the CHL into the U.S. will be a very good thing for USA Hockey.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You do realize that there are American CHL franchises and that the CHL is in an active process of further expanding into the U.S. right? The NCAA is not the only way to grow the game.

I thought you said the OHL thought the American teams couldn't hack it financially and didn't want them? What changed?

 

[Corso]

I thought you said the OHL thought the American teams couldn't hack it financially and didn't want them? What changed?

I question Youngstown's financial ability to last in the OHL but Youngstown is not the only market the OHL is looking at. Apparently Muskegon's ownership is willing to invest(read lose) millions in order to make the franchise viable in the O and "grow the game" in the region. There are many other locations that both the Q and O are looking at as well.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I question Youngstown's financial ability to last in the OHL but Youngstown is not the only market the OHL is looking at. Apparently Muskegon's ownership is willing to invest(read lose) millions in order to make the franchise viable in the O and "grow the game" in the region. There are many other locations that both the Q and O are looking at as well.

Thing is, if they're in the OHL, they're getting transfer agreement $ and a share of the CHL TV deals, and presumably are a bigger draw if there are more NHL prospects. Do the existing American CHL franchises struggle? It's not like everyone needs to be London or Halifax.

 

[Corso]

Thing is, if they're in the OHL, they're getting transfer agreement $ and a share of the CHL TV deals, and presumably are a bigger draw if there are more NHL prospects. Do the existing American CHL franchises struggle? It's not like everyone needs to be London or Halifax.

NHL transfer agreements work out to about 250k per team in the CHL, so not really a significant amount of dollars. Teams can make more based on the number of NHL drafted picks who sign out of the league. I'm not sure on the amount of TV revenue, I will have to ask those in the know.

Yes, I'm sure Muskegon will be a better draw within the OHL as opposed to what they are drawing in the USHL but I'm still very skeptical of Youngstown.