CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[WarriorofTime]

NHL transfer agreements work out to about 250k per team in the CHL, so not really a significant amount of dollars. Teams can make more based on the number of NHL drafted picks who sign out of the league. I'm not sure on the amount of TV revenue, I will have to ask those in the know.

Yes, I'm sure Muskegon will be a better draw within the OHL as opposed to what they are drawing in the USHL but I'm still very skeptical of Youngstown.

Unless something has drastically changed, many CHL players teams aren’t really that profitable if at all

OHL, WHL filings in CHL lawsuit show teams struggling to make ends meet – Sportsnet.ca

 

[Wieters]

Hockey is a niche sport and any and all forms of hockey can help grow the game. College hockey has been around for over a century and yet still remains a relatively minor niche sport within the NCAA structure. College Hockey Inc was tasked to "grow the game" yet has it really? Has any big name program since Arizona State really picked up the mantle?

Expansion of the CHL into the U.S. will be a very good thing for USA Hockey.

Americans have generational attachments to their local universities/alma maters. Using college sports as a gateway to get people interested in hockey is the best way to actually grow the number of hockey fans in America. And this might become more viable if the quality/depth of the NCAA improves with more kids from the CHL coming over.

 

[jtechkid]

Just attempting to counter the widespread and ignorant POV that the CHL sucks and is a children’s league and the best place ever to develop is the ncaa.

the huge winners will be 1, NCAA- zero doubt abt it ,2, CHL - not sure why this group is crying lol. 3, Canadien youth hockey , thats it! big losers are ushl , bchl - nahl , prep hockey, usa hockey in general

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wrong on every level. For one CIS teams have never played CHL teams. The NTDP has beaten ncaa teams before, so therefore NTDP>NCAA? You think a team of low end 23-24 year olds who won’t even be good enough for the ECHL would beat London? Lmao. Not to mention hundreds of CHL players every year go to nhl camps and play with and against current NHL’ers, and many even play NHL pre season games, so they’re more than capable of handling older players.

It was an uninformed dumb take, trying to be nice.

One bad USNTDP class and everyone is ready to shovel dirt on U.S. Hockey and ignore a 5-decade trend of uptick in terms of NHL numbers

Do they get NIL money, ?
but It could possibly be the beginning of the end. That wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[Bubbles]

This is exactly what the NIL was meant to be, an athlete trading on his fame for dollars. It was never envisioned to be a 10-million-dollar deal, with little in the way of actual work, funded in part by a billionaire for the top football recruit in the country. This is what the House Settlement will try to rein in, but who knows how successful the NCAA will be?

As for Charlie Stramel, I think it's a safe bet that he will not earn anywhere close to six figures in selling his name for cash.

As you said, it really is the wild west. I guess that's what happens when you go from a total ban of earning money to basically no rules at all.

I used Stramel as an example of what a 1st rounder could possibly earn with the NIL rules. Some people on here are posting that the NIL would draw in foreign recruits (when, again they cannot earn income on student visas). Even hypothetically speaking, the money earned from NIL other than the TOP TOP recruits, the money is negligible.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Do they get NIL money, ?
but It could possibly be the beginning of the end. That wouldn’t surprise me.

Why wouldn’t it surprise you? This is all very speculative. USA announced a strong rostered for the Bettman tournament and has a good pool of young players for the future. One down birth year isn’t a sky is falling scenario.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Why wouldn’t it surprise you? This is all very speculative. USA announced a strong rostered for the Bettman tournament and has a good pool of young players for the future. One down birth year isn’t a sky is falling scenario.

Was more interested in this
Do they get NIL money, ?
Rest was an afterthought

 

[WarriorofTime]

Was more interested on this
Do they get NIL money, ?

Does who get NIL money?

 

[Wieters]

I used Stramel as an example of what a 1st rounder could possibly earn with the NIL rules.

Well then you didn't do that because that Opendorse site is not representative of NIL. The schools create those sites for whatever reason, but they are not a meaningful source of NIL money.

Some people on here are posting that the NIL would draw in foreign recruits (when, again they cannot earn income on student visas). Even hypothetically speaking, the money earned from NIL other than the TOP TOP recruits, the money is negligible.

NIL is in its infancy. People are projecting what could happen in the future. The rules could easily change to allow Canadians to make money. And more money could make its way into hockey. Acting like the current state of NIL is the way it always has been and will be is shortsighted.

 

[jtechkid]

Keep it up - wow -lot of great post - smart dialogue on the subject- dramatically more than you see in media . thx !

 

[wetcoast]

That’s impossible to determine.

Yet this is what is done by many on these boards, why would this be the exception?

I mean there probably is a case here or there but the posters general point makes sense right?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yet this is what is done by many on these boards, why would this be the exception?

I mean there probably is a case here or there but the posters general point makes sense right?

I don’t know if it makes sense. If a prospect gets double slid back to junior and then busts, people just say “well he was no good.” If a player is made pro early and succeeds it’s “well he was good no matter what.” But if a player is called up, then busts they say “oh they rushed him.” But how do we know he just wasn’t no good? Ultimately we know some players will succeed and some players will bust. We have no way to determine if the busts would have been successful had they been developed the other way, and we have no way to determine if the successes would have been busts had they been developed the other way. This is because each player is unique and we can’t replay their career once it happens.

 

[wetcoast]

I don’t know if it makes sense. If a prospect gets double slid back to junior and then busts, people just say “well he was no good.” If a player is made pro early and succeeds it’s “well he was good no matter what.” But if a player is called up, then busts they say “oh they rushed him.” But how do we know he just wasn’t no good? Ultimately we know some players will succeed and some players will bust. We have no way to determine if the busts would have been successful had they been developed the other way, and we have no way to determine if the successes would have been busts had they been developed the other way. This is because each player is unique and we can’t replay their career once it happens.

Fair enough but the other poster was pointing out something that many know is extremely important in development and that's lots of playing time and exposure to try things out and gain confidence rather than simply surviving.

 

[Corso]

Americans have generational attachments to their local universities/alma maters. Using college sports as a gateway to get people interested in hockey is the best way to actually grow the number of hockey fans in America. And this might become more viable if the quality/depth of the NCAA improves with more kids from the CHL coming over.

The growth of the game in the U.S. was due to NHL expansion. College hockey has played a very very minor role in that growth. Not to say that college hockey isn't important in the markets and niche it serves but the NHL in no way sees it as "the way to grow the game".

CHL expansion into the U.S. would allow for more U.S. born kids to play a high level of hockey and the NHL is very interested in that.

 

[Corso]

Well then you didn't do that because that Opendorse site is not representative of NIL. The schools create those sites for whatever reason, but they are not a meaningful source of NIL money.


NIL is in its infancy. People are projecting what could happen in the future. The rules could easily change to allow Canadians to make money. And more money could make its way into hockey. Acting like the current state of NIL is the way it always has been and will be is shortsighted.

The current political climate is a long way from allowing foreign born players the opportunity to earn NIL while playing in the U.S. Furthermore NIL is at the very least indirectly tied to the popularity of the sport the athlete is playing in. Yes, there are some athletes, such as Livvy Dunne who have really cashed in from a non revenue sport but by and large the real money is in football and basketball. As of right now, NIL is miniscule in college hockey.

Again, refer to this excellent piece by the Athletic

In College Sports’ Big Money Era, Here’s Where the Dollars Go

On average, $1 million for S.E.C. quarterbacks; guards who earn a quarter of that: The New York Times examined the so-called Black Book, a kind of Zillow for college sports, that details athletes’ expected annual pay.

www.nytimes.com

Twenty years out from now, sure who knows but the way things look to me, I doubt the NCAA will even be around as a functioning governing body, football and basketball players will be employees with unions and collective bargaining and who knows what college hockey will look like. If you think that is far fetched then you haven't been paying attention. Ten years ago, everyone would have outright laughed and labeled one insane if they were to describe the world of college athletics today.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Kocha Delic (2004, Sudbury Wolves, OHL) commits to Miami University. Perfect type who isn't quite good enough to make it in pro right now, but definitely good enough to contribute at an above average level in the NCAA.

 

[Wieters]

Twenty years out from now, sure who knows but the way things look to me, I doubt the NCAA will even be around as a functioning governing body, football and basketball players will be employees with unions and collective bargaining and who knows what college hockey will look like. If you think that is far fetched then you haven't been paying attention. Ten years ago, everyone would have outright laughed and labeled one insane if they were to describe the world of college athletics today.

Okay, so the playing field is brand new and the landscape is shifting quickly. Things have been and will continue to change, which could include funding finding its way into non-revenue sports and/or allowing foreign-born players to become eligible. The point is just that treating NIL as a fixed entity in terms of who makes what right now isn't particularly helpful when projecting into the future since there is no status quo and the concept is finding its footing.

 

[Corso]

Okay, so the playing field is brand new and the landscape is shifting quickly. Things have been and will continue to change, which could include funding finding its way into non-revenue sports and/or allowing foreign-born players to become eligible. The point is just that treating NIL as a fixed entity in terms of who makes what right now isn't particularly helpful when projecting into the future since there is no status quo and the concept is finding its footing.

Sure, but we can look at trends and data to help gauge future development. College hockey would have to experience a rapid exponential growth in popularity and interest to make lucrative NIL deals a real thing. Will it? By the time it does, if it does (as of now improbable) will it even matter if the entire landscape of college athletics in the revenue sports has changed to a professional model?

I think it is safe to say that within the next five years, NIL will not be much of a factor in enticing elite talent away from the CHL-AHL-NHL track to the NCAA.

Now let me say again, for the umpteenth time, I fully expect elite talent to continue choosing the NCAA route before the NHL, but it will not be the majority of talent and we should not expect to see elite young talent leave the CHL enmasse to join the NCAA due to college hockey being older and considered to be the "natural rite of passage" to the NHL.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The "current political climate" has nothing to do with why non-U.S. nationals struggle to earn NIL. It's an immigration regulation regarding F1 visas that has nothing to do with NIL... it's essentially saying "you're here on this particular Visa to be a student, not a full time employee"... it's not like a special thing created for the very purpose to stop foreign players earning NIL.

 

[bigdog16]

Wrong on every level. For one CIS teams have never played CHL teams. The NTDP has beaten ncaa teams before, so therefore NTDP>NCAA? You think a team of low end 23-24 year olds who won’t even be good enough for the ECHL would beat London? Lmao. Not to mention hundreds of CHL players every year go to nhl camps and play with and against current NHL’ers, and many even play NHL pre season games, so they’re more than capable of handling older players.

CIS teams would beat CHL teams handily, you are far removed from reality if you think otherwise. NTDP will mix in a win vs NCAA teams but routinely get beat up by them. NTDP gets beat by NCAA D3 teams for Gods sake.

NCAA players would go to NHL camps if they were allowed to. The NCAA prohibits that.

My point isn't that the NCAA is a better development path, because both CHL and NCAA have their pros and cons. My point is that if you stick an NCAA team on the ice against a CHL team right now, it would not be close. Same as if you stuck the worst CHL team against the top u16 GTHL team. The CHL team would destroy them but the u16 team probably has better prospects.

The 2023-24 Stonehill squad wouldn’t win a single game against a competitive CHL team. You’re forgetting the bottom rungs of the NCAA are filled with players who wouldn’t have even made a CHL farm team (Junior B). The difference between a top NCAA team full of professional level talent and the bottom quartile of D1 hockey is a bigger gap than between the Florida Panthers and the Florida Everblades.

Yes, they would. That Stonehill team was still made up of a bunch of D1 transfers who spent time in the BCHL, NAHL, USHL, etc. All leagues that are significantly better than junior B hockey.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I think it is safe to say that within the next five years, NIL will not be much of a factor in enticing elite talent away from the CHL-AHL-NHL track to the NCAA.

Hardly "safe", with ELCs paying players $80,000 salary for AHL portion, so you don't need $1 milllion for average SEC Quarterbacks level of NIL here to make the math work, and then don't forget the college kids can play an entire NCAA season, then leverage their demand to burn a year of an ELC with just a couple games, something that happens every year. Play in NCAA, possibly earn a six-figure NIL deal backed by enthusiastic alumni, burn a whole year of ELC anyways. Seems like a win-win.

 

[Corso]

The "current political climate" has nothing to do with why non-U.S. nationals struggle to earn NIL. It's an immigration regulation regarding F1 visas that has nothing to do with NIL... it's essentially saying "you're here on this particular Visa to be a student, not a full time employee"... it's not like a special thing created for the very purpose to stop foreign players earning NIL.

Non-U.S. student athletes are unable to participate in NIL (for the most part...ways around it but a bit cumbersome and certainly not as lucrative) and the "current political climate" does not lend itself to this changing any time soon.

Hardly "safe", with ELCs paying players $80,000 salary for AHL portion, so you don't need $1 milllion for average SEC Quarterbacks level of NIL here to make the math work, and then don't forget the college kids can play an entire NCAA season, then leverage their demand to burn a year of an ELC with just a couple games, something that happens every year. Play in NCAA, possibly earn a six-figure NIL deal backed by enthusiastic alumni, burn a whole year of ELC anyways. Seems like a win-win.

Sure....good luck in getting that six figure NIL deal as you forgo a 280k signing bonus on top of an 80k salary.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sure....good luck in getting that six figure NIL deal as you forgo a 280k signing bonus on top of an 80k salary.

Not sure what you're thinking here.

Take a guy like Frank Nazar. Goes back to college in 2023-24, plays an entire season, goes to Frozen Four so season is extended. On April 13, 2024, signs an ELC, receives a full signing bonus, plays 2 games and NHL season ends. Now enters 2024-25 on a second year of ELC, rather than a first year, so he's quicker to a second contract and theoretical shot at more money without having to spend more time in the AHL to get there.

The signing bonus didn't poof away because of when he signed his ELC. Now let's say Michigan (huge school with big alumni and that likes sports a lot, and likes hockey) is giving a going rate of $125K for mid-1st round picks.

If 2023-24 is an AHL salary of $80K, the $125K of NIL wins out. The signing bonus (which gets spread out over the contract, not the entire contract value up front to begin with) is only delayed, not suspended, so uhh.. six month time value effect?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

As I said several pages ago, we'll get more clarity on the CHL to NCAA movement age timeline once the CHL Standard Player Agreement gets rewritten/changed/ripped up, or even ruled unconstitutional by Canadian &/or US Court if a CHL team doesn't allow a specific player from going to the NCAA to pursue academic/student athlete opportunities until they fulfill the number of years required in the CHL agreed upon in said Standard Player Agreement.

Really interested to see if Medicine Hat and/or Brampton would really challenge McKenna & Martone from going to the NCAA, stating that they're binded to the Standard Player Agreement. Could get quite messy.

 

[Corso]

Not sure what you're thinking here.

Take a guy like Frank Nazar. Goes back to college in 2023-24, plays an entire season, goes to Frozen Four so season is extended. On April 13, 2024, signs an ELC, receives a full signing bonus, plays 2 games and NHL season ends. Now enters 2024-25 on a second year of ELC, rather than a first year, so he's quicker to a second contract and theoretical shot at more money without having to spend more time in the AHL to get there.

The signing bonus didn't poof away because of when he signed his ELC. Now let's say Michigan (huge school with big alumni and that likes sports a lot, and likes hockey) is giving a going rate of $125K for mid-1st round picks.

If 2023-24 is an AHL salary of $80K, the $125K of NIL wins out. The signing bonus (which gets spread out over the contract, not the entire contract value up front to begin with) is only delayed, not suspended, so uhh.. six month time value effect?

There is no school giving any where near the "going rate" of 125k for mid first round picks. Will some rich alumni step forward and make that happen....maybe but as of now it is not happening.

If NCAA hockey players (who as of now average less than 4k a year in NIL) could in fact command 125k then sure, your math works but they don't and it is very improbable that they will. The most received so far, by three players is 50k per year and those players are extreme outliers.

Could Michigan offer a McKenna a 125k a year to entice him, maybe (but unlikely) but that would be a total one off. NIL just isn't that big of a factor in college hockey and I think I explained why (and also linked an article with solid data to prove it).

As I said several pages ago, we'll get more clarity on the CHL to NCAA movement age timeline once the CHL Standard Player Agreement gets rewritten/changed/ripped up, or even ruled unconstitutional by Canadian &/or US Court if a CHL team doesn't allow a specific player from going to the NCAA to pursue academic/student athlete opportunities until they fulfill the number of years required in the CHL agreed upon in said Standard Player Agreement.

Really interested to see if Medicine Hat and/or Brampton would really challenge McKenna & Martone from going to the NCAA, stating that they're binded to the Standard Player Agreement. Could get quite messy.

I do know that many CHL teams are currently modifying their standard agreements to allow players to leave early if they so choose. Highly unlikely that Medicine Hat would stand in the way of McKenna's decision if he were to decide to leave for the NCAA. There are of course, many ways for Medicine Hat to encourage him to stay, however.