CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[Hockeyville USA]

"Hey Andrew Cristall, I know you enjoy your free Porsche, golf membership and waterfront apartment in Kelowna. So let me tell you about life at St. Cloud State University."

LMAO, while fair point, Cristall (and other similar types) will almost never consider St Cloud State. They'd be pursued by Denver, North Dakota, Michigan, Boston University, Boston College, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and a few wildcards like Arizona State and Harvard.

The Tier 2 level Dub/CHL talents like Mazden Leslie would be heavily pursued by most schools, but especially St Cloud State, Western Michigan, Minnesota Duluth, etc.

 

[WarriorofTime]

No one has ever been hurt by an extra year of junior hockey. Plenty has been hurt by being rushed up a level because of impatience.

That’s impossible to determine.

 

[Wieters]

LOL, Minnesota almost never recruits anyone from outside their state borders, let alone Canadians, especially high end ones who lean major junior over the NCAA. Their recruitment of Hayden Reid (shitty depth player from Ontario) was a big head scratcher because it didn't fit their MO.

I'm just including them as one of the blue blood hockey programs alongside the other ones I listed; it wasn't some specific inclusion. I suppose I should have included Wisconsin and possibly Michigan State to make clear I was just naming the elite programs. And besides, Minnesota might need to change their recruiting approach with the shifting landscape.

You act like these kids aren’t already treated like kings in the places they already play.

They might be treated well, but a CHL organization can't compete with the resources/network of a school like Michigan, and they can't offer the lifestyle of a college athlete. How much that matters will depend on the individual, but it's not irrelevant. Again, it's all right in that video; the people at Michigan are expressly saying this, it's not like I'm making this up here.

For the truly elite players who have already been drafted and are guaranteed an ELC, the attractiveness of college is significantly diluted by the fact they are trying to make the show and in many cases college does not help them get there faster. As I said, yes for lower round players who are going to have to ride the bus it might be more attractive. But that first or second round pick that’s going to compete for an NHL roster spot at 20? Unlikely. Especially for Canadians who can’t benefit from NIL.

Sure, that's plausible. It could also be the case that it becomes a rite of passage for even these types of kids to go to the NCAA for a year since college hockey is a level that most NHL players will have gone through themselves at one point. We're just guessing at this point.

 

[Wieters]

"Hey Andrew Cristall, I know you enjoy your free Porsche, golf membership and waterfront apartment in Kelowna. So let me tell you about life at St. Cloud State University."

Now substitute in Michigan and consider a reality where the courts allow Canadians to become eligible for NIL money and see if it's as silly.

 

[MeHateHe]

I wonder if it's possible for our friends south of the 49th to understand that not everyone dreams of getting a college scholarship to play sports. I understand it's the American Dream(tm) but kids growing up in Temiskaming or Grande Prairie or Kindersley aren't focused on a scholarship as much as they are in Fargo or Des Moines or Marquette. It's almost like we live in a different country with a different culture or something.

Kids playing major junior are looking for a path to the NHL. You're going to go to a player who is probably top-6 on his team and tell him he is going to play fewer games, under a different system, and be expected to attend classes (at least close to) full time. Why? Because Ann Arbor is suddenly a magical place where all his boyhood dreams will come true? He's already on a path that has been well-trod by thousands of NHL players and now, in his D+1 season he's going to disrupt that path for something that will be entirely different from what he's used to? Again, these are kids who aren't dreaming of getting a college scholarship from the time they were 6: they're dreaming of playing pro hockey and everything else is just a jumping-off point. The glamourous life of being a big-time college athlete (except that at most of the hockey schools you all cite as being magnets, hockey is #2 or #3 or maybe #4 of the men's sports) is not top of mind for these guys.

 

[4thline]

Every year, a number of very high end CHL players, championship winning 1st line players with great stats, high character, team captain types sign AHL Contracts and try to cling to their life to an AHL lineup spot and avoid getting sent down to the ECHL, which is hard as draft picks are universally prioritized and then you have the veteran players that were typically fringe NHL players themselves (and often do have some varying degrees of NHL experience).

This paragraph could be written verbatim about 24-25 year old NCAA grads. We're talking about players starting school at that level. Will many/any make use of NCAA development to "change their stars" and become late blooming viable NHL prospects? Who knows. But they don't have to to materially change the quality of the NCAA.

Let's say there's 10-20 of these "very high end"/ fringe pro level CHL players that would have gone USports that now come to the NCAA, every year, taking top 6F/4D spots as 20 year old freshmen- and using the NCAA as a further development platform to grow from there. By year 4 that's 40-80 Top 6F/4D spots to players that entered the NCAA as fringe pro freshmen, pushing every one else down the depth charts.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This paragraph could be written verbatim about 24-25 year old NCAA grads. We're talking about players starting school at that level. Will many/any make use of NCAA development to "change their stars" and become late bloomers? Who knows. But they don't have to to materially change the quality of the NCAA.

Sure, but isn't the popular perception that the NCAA currently is filled with a bunch of low ceiling nothings outside of rare exceptions and the CHL is filled with budding NHL players to be? That's what discourse seems to be around regarding the overall effects of CHL players being eligible for NCAA.. that the players not jumping to NHL will come in and take over...

See e.g.,

Let's say there's 10-20 of these "very high end"/ fringe pro level CHL players that would have gone USports that now come to the NCAA, every year, taking top 6F/4D spots as 20 year old freshmen- and using the NCAA as a further development platform to grow from there. By year 4 that's 40-80 Top 6F/4D spots to players that entered the NCAA as fringe pro freshmen, pushing every one else down the depth charts.

 

[Wieters]

I wonder if it's possible for our friends south of the 49th to understand that not everyone dreams of getting a college scholarship to play sports. I understand it's the American Dream(tm) but kids growing up in Temiskaming or Grande Prairie or Kindersley aren't focused on a scholarship as much as they are in Fargo or Des Moines or Marquette. It's almost like we live in a different country with a different culture or something.

It's very apparent that Canadians don't have the same appreciation for the college student-athlete experience/tradition that Americans do. And that's understandable because different countries have different customs as you're saying. Ironically, this is so apparent that it feels necessary to point out that there is an appeal to college that isn't being considered here.

These college coaches are quite literally approaching Canadian kids and making the pitch to them. Even if it's not something that their parents/grandparents did, the appeal to it is being laid on a silver platter right before them now. That might not register for adult message board posters who are simply viewing the abstract pros and cons of the CHL versus the NCAA from a developmental standpoint and aren't being wooed by recruiters, but it might land for kids being actively sold the experience. That's the intent of pointing this out.

 

[MeHateHe]

These college coaches are quite literally approaching Canadian kids and making the pitch to them.

And these Canadian kids have agents. Those agents want to get paid, which only happens when these Canadian kids get paid. That might not register for adult message board posters who are simply viewing the abstract pros and cons of the CHL versus the NCAA from a developmental standpoint.

The folly I'm just flagging is the idea that a college scholarship is this bright twinkling bulb that will mesmerize players on their way to the NHL. It's not that big a deal - not enough that a player would defer a potential entry level contract and signing bonus.

 

[Bubbles]

Now substitute in Michigan and consider a reality where the courts allow Canadians to become eligible for NIL money and see if it's as silly.

Not as simple as you would put it. That would involve an entire change for people with student visas, which are limited in terms of earnings. You can't just go and say foreign student athletes can benefit from nil, that would involve all students on student visas.

 

[Wieters]

And these Canadian kids have agents. Those agents want to get paid, which only happens when these Canadian kids get paid. That might not register for adult message board posters who are simply viewing the abstract pros and cons of the CHL versus the NCAA from a developmental standpoint.

That's a totally separate point from what you originally raised. You were saying that the American dream to play in college doesn't land with Canadians. I'm saying it might not land with you, MeHateHe, but it might with a 17 year old kid. Advisors is a separate issue altogether.

The folly I'm just flagging is the idea that a college scholarship is this bright twinkling bulb that will mesmerize players on their way to the NHL. It's not that big a deal - not enough that a player would defer a potential entry level contract and signing bonus.

Says you? We see this happen already with American players in hockey and other sports. There are plenty of examples of college athletes who could go pro returning to school. In hockey, Ryan Leonard turned down an ELC the Caps offered him on the playoff roster just last season.

Not as simple as you would put it. That would involve an entire change for people with student visas, which are limited in terms of earnings. You can't just go and say foreign student athletes can benefit from nil, that would involve all students on student visas.

I don't think it's simple. It's a legal issue that is beyond the scope of this forum. But I think the issue might be raised sooner than later if more Canadians begin entering the NCAA.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

It's very apparent that Canadians don't have the same appreciation for the college student-athlete experience/tradition that Americans do. And that's understandable because different countries have different customs as you're saying. Ironically, this is so apparent that it feels necessary to point out that there is an appeal to college that isn't being considered here.

These college coaches are quite literally approaching Canadian kids and making the pitch to them. Even if it's not something that their parents/grandparents did, the appeal to it is being laid on a silver platter right before them now. That might not register for adult message board posters who are simply viewing the abstract pros and cons of the CHL versus the NCAA from a developmental standpoint and aren't being wooed by recruiters, but it might land for kids being actively recruited. That's the intent of pointing this out.

And this is what College Hockey Inc does: go into Canada and hold seminars to inform parents and their kids about the NCAA hockey route/option. Pretty sure the information helped fully Cale Makar to go the NCAA route.

Really interested to see what McKenna is thinking in regards to the NCAA option he has now. He's from Whitehorse Yukon, 3500 km (~2200 miles) from Grand Forks North Dakota, 4000 km (~2500 miles) from Denver, who knows if he wants to go even further from home.

Martone being from Ontario and playing minor hockey in the GTHL, you'd think he's very well aware of the NCAA route and Michigan, as they target those cohorts very heavily and Michigan is a name brand university that almost everyone in Ontario is aware of. We'll see if there's more smoke to the fire that Seravalli had in his column.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Not as simple as you would put it. That would involve an entire change for people with student visas, which are limited in terms of earnings. You can't just go and say foreign student athletes can benefit from nil, that would involve all students on student visas.

It's all brand new, all it takes is the legislature to work in an exception specifically for athletes to earn NIL, or some other workaround.

Not like hockey is going to be raking in big NIL dollars to begin with. I don't think that's going to be a main or overly significant draw.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I wonder if it's possible for our friends south of the 49th to understand that not everyone dreams of getting a college scholarship to play sports. I understand it's the American Dream(tm) but kids growing up in Temiskaming or Grande Prairie or Kindersley aren't focused on a scholarship as much as they are in Fargo or Des Moines or Marquette. It's almost like we live in a different country with a different culture or something.

Kids playing major junior are looking for a path to the NHL. You're going to go to a player who is probably top-6 on his team and tell him he is going to play fewer games, under a different system, and be expected to attend classes (at least close to) full time. Why? Because Ann Arbor is suddenly a magical place where all his boyhood dreams will come true? He's already on a path that has been well-trod by thousands of NHL players and now, in his D+1 season he's going to disrupt that path for something that will be entirely different from what he's used to? Again, these are kids who aren't dreaming of getting a college scholarship from the time they were 6: they're dreaming of playing pro hockey and everything else is just a jumping-off point. The glamourous life of being a big-time college athlete (except that at most of the hockey schools you all cite as being magnets, hockey is #2 or #3 or maybe #4 of the men's sports) is not top of mind for these guys.

I think there's a lot of "both sides" at play.

Are 16 year old Minnesota kids all going to leave home for places like Moose Jaw, Red Deer, and Prince George just because it's the "best" league for players that age? Some insist they'll have to if they harbor any ambition of playing pro hockey. Why are so many still sticking around now and playing on their high school teams and waiting to become full time Junior players until after they finish high school, if it's all about playing with the "best" as quickly as possible?

We'll see what the future holds... likely some degree of more Canadians playing NCAA Hockey, more American kids playing CHL Hockey prior to that. Beyond that, mostly just a lot of hyperbole about the world will never be the same, which could or could not be true depending on what happens.

 

[MeHateHe]

I don't think it's simple. It's a legal issue that is beyond the scope of this forum. But I think the issue might be raised sooner than later if more Canadians begin entering the NCAA.

Curious: how much NIL money do you think a hockey player might get at Michigan? Given that football and basketball are still dominant sports there, and given that college hockey generally speaking is not a huge money maker, just how much lolly do you suppose a college player who is likely to spend no more than two seasons at the school is going to get?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Curious: how much NIL money do you think a hockey player might get at Michigan? Given that football and basketball are still dominant sports there, and given that college hockey generally speaking is not a huge money maker, just how much lolly do you suppose a college player who is likely to spend no more than two seasons at the school is going to get?

 

[Wieters]

Curious: how much NIL money do you think a hockey player might get at Michigan? Given that football and basketball are still dominant sports there, and given that college hockey generally speaking is not a huge money maker, just how much lolly do you suppose a college player who is likely to spend no more than two seasons at the school is going to get?

To add, NIL allows college athletes to sign sponsorship agreements now too. The elite prospects get deals with national brands. If you go to the social media pages for any of the top American prospects in college, they have branded posts. This wasn't allowed before the advent of NIL a few years ago.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

While some of the guys who have committed to NCAA programs are notable to us sickos, we're all still waiting for a top end, Tier 1 level talent CHLer to commit and see at what age/year they'd go to the NCAA. I wonder what Ryan Roobroeck is thinking, as he's doing very well in the O in his 17 year old season, but is a late birthday who isn't draft eligbile until 2026. One to keep an eye on & see if he'd wanna go to the NCAA in his DY or D+1.

 

[Golden_Jet]

A lot of the 20 year old kids that have already committed are going to make a huge impact.

So ones that aren’t junior eligible anymore, other than the 2-3 overagers, that rarely carve out an NHL career.

So makes sense for those kids,

 

[4thline]

Sure, but isn't the popular perception that the NCAA currently is filled with a bunch of low ceiling nothings outside of rare exceptions and the CHL is filled with budding NHL players to be? That's what discourse seems to be around regarding the overall effects of CHL players being eligible for NCAA.. that the players not jumping to NHL will come in and take over...

See e.g.,

I don't know what the popular perception is. All I can speak to is my own argument. By your words, the "high end" CHL grads coming over to the NCAA are non-prospect type fringe pro's. AHL / ECHL tweeners.

Which statement do you take issue with

That a player good enough to be an AHL/ECHL tweener (even one with no real NHL hope) will be an above average NCAA player(top 6F / top 4D)?

That the NCAA is a good enough development league that some of those tweeners will get better over the course of 4 years?

That adding 40-80 such players and displacing the worst 40-80 will materially raise the quality of the league?

I didn't say anything about "taking over" but yes, the NCAA will look different. The quality of the "nobodies" is going to rise.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Which statement do you take issue with

That a player good enough to be an AHL/ECHL tweener (even one with no real NHL hope) will be an above average NCAA player(top 6F / top 4D)?

That the NCAA is a good enough development league that some of those tweeners will get better over the course of 4 years?

That adding 40-80 such players and displacing the worst 40-80 will materially raise the quality of the league?

I didn't say anything about "taking over" but yes, the NCAA will look different. The quality of the "nobodies" is going to rise.

Right, that's my point, right now we're working margins here. Limited pro potential overagers are going to the NCAA to make low-level teams in low-level conferences a bit better, some kids in the BCHL are jumping in and giving some roster upgrades to teams primarily in the QMJHL. We'll see in the offseason what sort of huge overriding effect this is going to have.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sorry this isn't happening on your arbitrary expected timeline in the middle of the season.

I guess you have nothing better to do than argue about pure hypotheticals with nothing concrete behind it for 31 pages.

I can say I’m as guilty as anyone to participate, but I personally do wonder sometimes why I do so.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Long term predictions:
-NHL raises draft age to 19.
-Everyone in NA is going to NCAA for draft season (scouts love an even playing field)
-NCAA hockey explodes in popularity and the players make money off of NIL deals (everyone wins).
-CHL become an 18 year olds league. You can still play until 20, but very few NHL prospects do.
-CHL gate suffers significantly
-USHL doesn’t cease to exist, but quality of the league takes a big hit as the level of play more closely resembles a high end U18AAA team.
-The best USHL programs move the CHL

I’m sure plenty of these will be wrong tho

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Long term predictions:
-NHL raises draft age to 19.
-Everyone in NA is going to NCAA for draft season (scouts love an even playing field)
-NCAA hockey explodes in popularity and the players make money off of NIL deals (everyone wins).
-CHL become an 18 year olds league. You can still play until 20, but very few NHL prospects do.
-CHL gate suffers significantly
-USHL doesn’t cease to exist, but quality of the league takes a big hit as the level of play more closely resembles a high end U18AAA team.
-The best USHL programs move the CHL

I’m sure plenty of these will be wrong tho

I just don't see that happening for a long time if ever due to the NHLPA having to sign off on it. NHLPA doesn't want entry point age to move back further, unless they can get to UFA a year or multiple years earlier.

I do think several Junior A leagues in Canada as well as the NAHL & lower level junior leagues in the States will be forced to merge/downsize quite significantly in order to be sustainable.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I just don't see that happening for a long time if ever due to the NHLPA having to sign off on it. NHLPA doesn't want entry point age to move back further, unless they can get to UFA a year or multiple years earlier.

I do think several Junior A leagues in Canada as well as the NAHL & lower level junior leagues in the States will be forced to merge/downsize quite significantly in order to be sustainable.

Won’t happen for a while but it makes a lot more sense. And players are slowly but surely getting more control. It wouldn’t suprise me if they do get to UFA sooner eventually.