Proposal: Ceci to Leafs

[Atomos2]

The only one who has proven themselves is Rielly.

Umm, the only one given the opportunity to prove themselves was Rielly,

"Projected" Kadri and Schenn were "projected" to be pilars for the maple leafs but those expectations they never achieved. I think Toronto is doing some great things this time around but let's hit the brakes a little. I'm not saying the leafs are doomed, just that maybe Nylander isn't a #1C, maybe Rielly isn't a #1D.

And what about Matthews or Marner? They haven't proven themselves either. Why aren't you saying maybe Matthews isn't a number one centre? Is it because you realize something would have to go terribly wrong for him not to reach that status? Is it because you realize that even though he hasn't played a game in the league, it's absurd to bet against his ability to become a top line player?

 

[BondraTime]

I would say Dermott is above the ones you mentioned. He is on the same level as Chabot. So where ever Chabot fits into your prospect pool is where Dermott slides in and I also feel that Neilsson is ever so slightly above Dermott. Now both Dermott and Neilsson are outside of our top 5

Chabot is the Sens #1/2 prospect

Dermott is not at the same level as Chabot, with all due respect to Dermott.

You honestly believe that the Leafs have 2 guys in Dermott and Neilsson who are at and above Chabot's level? Chabot is one of the best D prospects in the league.

Dermott would fit in around Dahlen in our prospect rankings, so 6th/7th

 

[Micklebot]

I would say Dermott is above the ones you mentioned. He is on the same level as Chabot. So where ever Chabot fits into your prospect pool is where Dermott slides in and I also feel that Neilsson is ever so slightly above Dermott. Now both Dermott and Neilsson are outside of our top 5

Chabot is the Sens #1/2 prospect

Dermott is not at the same level as Chabot, with all due respect to Dermott.

You honestly believe that the Leafs have 2 guys in Dermott and Neilsson who are at and above Chabot's level? Chabot is one of the best D prospects in the league.

Dermott would fit in around Dahlen in our prospect rankings, so 6th/7th

Just to add some 3rd party perspective on where Chabot ranks relative to Dermott

TSN Hockey's Top 50 NHL-affiliated prospects as of 11 Feb 2016
Chabot: 42nd.
Dermott: Not ranked, or listed in Leafs top 5 prospects (Nylander, Marner, Johnson, Nielsen, Timashov)

Pronman's Mid-season Top 50 List(paywall) as of 14 Jan 2016
Chabot: 18th overall (3rd among D)
Dermott: HM (not ranked), behind Marner(2), Nylander(3), Kapanen (26), and Brown (44)


Anyways, back to the OP, Ottawa doesn't make that trade in a million years as it's satisfies none of the teams needs and creates a gaping hole.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Ceci and Lazar for a pile of garbage and a 2nd round pick. Not happening.

Might as well ask for Karlsson for Gardiner while you're at it.

 

[Korpse]

Umm, the only one given the opportunity to prove themselves was Rielly,



And what about Matthews or Marner? They haven't proven themselves either. Why aren't you saying maybe Matthews isn't a number one centre? Is it because you realize something would have to go terribly wrong for him not to reach that status? Is it because you realize that even though he hasn't played a game in the league, it's absurd to bet against his ability to become a top line player?

I think there is a better possibility that he reaches that potential. Then again I'm not the one who is labelling players as top line caliber.

 

[Atomos2]

I think there is a better possibility that he reaches that potential. Then again I'm not the one who is labelling players as top line caliber.

Why is that? Is it the first overall title he comes with? It couldn't be that because you clearly don't think much of draft position considering you brought up Schenn and Kadri when I made a point about draft position earlier. I just want to know where this intuition you have comes from that makes you think maybe Nylander isn't a 1C and Matthews has a better possibility of being a 1C.

 

[Micklebot]

Why is that? Is it the first overall title he comes with? It couldn't be that because you clearly don't think much of draft position considering you brought up Schenn and Kadri when I made a point about draft position earlier. I just want to know where this intuition you have comes from that makes you think maybe Nylander isn't a 1C and Matthews has a better possibility of being a 1C.

First off, there are tons of resources out there to learn about prospects, their projections, and how they've been developing, not to mention the number of tournaments and developmental league games that he may have watched.

Second, I feel like you're actively looking for an argument. He's saying that while those guys look promising, until they reach their potential, it's just that, potential. Kadri was hyped up, and hasn't achieved the level of success many though he would. He's still a great player though. Schenn was hyped up too, and never reached the potential many thought he had. Same can be said for many Ottawa prospects like Cowen and Rundblad for example. His implication, to me at least, was clearly that one has to consider the possibility that these guys don't match the hype. He's not saying they'll all bust or anything.

 

[Sureves]

Sens fans also projected Rundblad to be as good if not better than Karlsson, and Cowen to be a rock defensively on their blueline.

I'm not entirely sure that the Cowen part is true. There were always question about Cowen from pretty much the day he was drafted.

Rundblad, sure: he was doing things in the SEL that had literally never been done before by a defenseman in the history of the game. He did put a strong argument forth that he was going to be a star. But again, I don't think you're proving the point you think you are. The exact point is that you never know with prospects until you know.

Unless you're a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd overall pick, there is a huge amount of doubt that you will actually have a long-term career in the NHL at all, let alone being a top line player.

Those are just the facts - which isn't to say it's a pure certainty for #1, #2, or #3 either, but the odds are actually pretty good when it comes to the top 3.

 

[Atomos2]

First off, there are tons of resources out there to learn about prospects, their projections, and how they've been developing, not to mention the number of tournaments and developmental league games that he may have watched.

Second, I feel like you're actively looking for an argument. He's saying that while those guys look promising, until they reach their potential, it's just that, potential. Kadri was hyped up, and hasn't achieved the level of success many though he would. He's still a great player though. Schenn was hyped up too, and never reached the potential many thought he had. Same can be said for many Ottawa prospects like Cowen and Rundblad for example. His implication, to me at least, was clearly that one has to consider the possibility that these guys don't match the hype. He's not saying they'll all bust or anything.

First off, exactly, which is why there is hype in the first place. There are a ton of resources to see how these prospects compare so it shouldn't be a mystery why Leaf fans rate these prospects so highly.

Second, I am looking for an argument, because those statements he said were shot in the dark statements that go against all the evidence you were claiming in your first paragraph for these prospects.

Third, the fact that we have those players in our history and saw how they measure up only gives us better information on how we should assess these prospects today. Nylander and Marner easily have better numbers than Kadri. And Rielly's progression hs been much better than Schenn's. Like Mark Hunter has said multiple times, you learn from your mistakes to make better assessments in the future.

 

[HarrisonFord]

I just hope for your sake they aren't as disappointing as Schenn and Kadri were.

lol

Kadri draft year +1:
56gp - 35g, 58a, 93pts


Marner draft year +1:
57gp - 39g, 77a, 116pts

Pretty big difference.

Nylander's production is record setting as well, but I'll let you look that one up if you really want to.

And Schenn is a defenseman, and defensemen are far more difficult to predict than forwards. Dermott is definitely a question mark, and we won't really know how good he'll be for another few years. Not to mention Schenn was mismanaged and too slow in the new NHL

 

[He Is Knocking]

STill hard to believe Hextall got Myers for just cash.

House money!

Apologies for derailing the thread but hadn't seen the TSN rankings earlier! Proposal was a non starter from the beginning however.

 

[God Says No]

Looks like Chabot vs Dermott is the new Ceci vs Finn. Interesting how that will go, because Leaf fans were pretty wrong on that one...

 

[HarrisonFord]

Looks like Chabot vs Dermott is the new Ceci vs Finn. Interesting how that will go, because Leaf fans were pretty wrong on that one...

lol it's really nothing like that, but if that makes you happy then that's cool. Chabot does have the edge here, obviously. But it's not Ceci vs. Finn level

 

[Engineer]

95% of posts agree that this is a horrible trade for Ottawa

A couple of the usual pundits over posting about how 95% of these users know nothing and they are the only ones able to accurately analyze value

Hmm?

 

[Micklebot]

lol

Kadri draft year +1:
56gp - 35g, 58a, 93pts


Marner draft year +1:
57gp - 39g, 77a, 116pts

Pretty big difference.

Nylander's production is record setting as well, but I'll let you look that one up if you really want to.

And Schenn is a defenseman, and defensemen are far more difficult to predict than forwards. Dermott is definitely a question mark, and we won't really know how good he'll be for another few years. Not to mention Schenn was mismanaged and too slow in the new NHL

Disappointment is relative to expectations. More is expected of Marner, and rightly so, but if he becomes an great 2nd line winger instead of a good to great 1st line winger, that might be a similar level of disappointment to that of Kadri

Basically, guys like Mathews and Marner can turn out better than Kadri and it can still be considered disappointing.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Disappointment is relative to expectations. More is expected of Marner, and rightly so, but if he becomes an great 2nd line winger instead of a good to great 1st line winger, that might be a similar level of disappointment to that of Kadri

Basically, guys like Mathews and Marner can turn out better than Kadri and it can still be considered disappointing.

Well sure, anything could happen. Karlsson could have his production trail off next season and only put up 40-50pts. Matthews could turn out to be a below average #1C. But that's not what the evidence available to us would suggest

 

[Micklebot]

Well sure, anything could happen. Karlsson could have his production trail off next season and only put up 40-50pts. Matthews could turn out to be a below average #1C. But that's not what the evidence available to us would suggest

I think the point he was trying to make is that fans often (seemingly almost always) err on the side of maximizing potential or coming close, so expectations might need to be dialed back, the truth is probably closer to one of Mathews, Marner or Nylander will meet expectations, but it's not all that relevant to the thread to be honest.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Well sure, anything could happen. Karlsson could have his production trail off next season and only put up 40-50pts. Matthews could turn out to be a below average #1C. But that's not what the evidence available to us would suggest

Sure, anything could happen but what evidence is there to suggest that Karlsson would regress by 15-25 points from his career average while Mathews is a guaranteed #1C?

 

[LeafsNation149]

Quantity for quality. I think if you make the trade Brown + Dermott for Ceci it would be fair value wise. But I just have insanely high hopes for Brown.

 

[HarrisonFord]

I think the point he was trying to make is that fans often (seemingly almost always) err on the side of maximizing potential or coming close, so expectations might need to be dialed back, the truth is probably closer to one of Mathews, Marner or Nylander will meet expectations, but it's not all that relevant to the thread to be honest.

Here's the thing about my expectations with Nylander (which are different from my expectations of Marner). When he was drafted, I was very high on him. I saw #1C potential. At that point it was just potential - I knew there would be questions about if he could get bigger and if he could hang playing against men. Then his draft +1 season happened, and he put up record setting SHL numbers for his age - doing so on the worst team in the SHL. That brought my expectations up from "Nylander has #1C potential" to "Nylander is going to be a top 6 player (C/W) in the NHL, with top line potential. Then he tore up the AHL last year, and put up the third highest PPG of all 1st year players (behind only McDavid and Eichel) and my expectations were solidified as "he's going to be a top 6 player in the NHL, and it's probably going to be as a #1C".

To me, that is a reasonable direction to take in terms of expectations. Because Nylander is still yet to do anything to prove otherwise. He's been a top performer in every level he's been in so far, and for a rookie in the NHL he was behind only 2 of the top franchise centers drafted in the last 5 years.

Marner, on the other hand, does still have more uncertainty. I recognize that his ceiling is extremely high (probably higher than Nylander's), but I also don't expect him to reach that. He's got top 5 NHL winger potential (look at his production, he does), but I really don't think he reaches that. When I look at Marner my expectations are "he has elite #1W potential. He should become a top 6 winger for the Leafs, and I'm fairly certain he will, but he's got a lot of uncertainty around him and could fall well short of his ceiling"

Now, if Marner plays in the NHL this year, and proves that his size isn't a concern, and that he can translate his skillset into becoming an effective and productive winger (obviously doing so next season as a bottom 6 player) then I'll have to update my expectations. If he struggles, I'll have to update them as well.

Sure, anything could happen but what evidence is there to suggest that Karlsson would regress by 15-25 points from his career average while Mathews is a guaranteed #1C?

There's really not anything, just like how there's really not anything to suggest that Matthews won't be a franchise #1C. Look at his comparables. He has better numbers than Eichel did at his stage in their development.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Quantity for quality. I think if you make the trade Brown + Dermott for Ceci it would be fair value wise. But I just have insanely high hopes for Brown.

Same. I think he's the Leafs highest scoring rookie next year

 

[Korpse]

Why is that? Is it the first overall title he comes with? It couldn't be that because you clearly don't think much of draft position considering you brought up Schenn and Kadri when I made a point about draft position earlier. I just want to know where this intuition you have comes from that makes you think maybe Nylander isn't a 1C and Matthews has a better possibility of being a 1C.

I didn't say I don't think anything of draft position, obviously there's some merit to it. All I'm saying is too often fans think best case scenario, it's not exclusive to the Toronto fan base either. Just sometimes you have to temper your expectations. I used Kadri and Schenn as recent examples who were picked #5 and #7 but never met the expectations set out for them. Obviously positive things are being said about the upcoming guys. they dont have a whole lot of experience, they haven't had the opportunity to disappoint or impress at the highest level. You twist that anyway you want to.

Regarding points at lower levels, I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into one player outscoring another at a lower level. It's far from an indication that the player is going to find more success at a higher level. Sometimes it does but not often enough where you can say confidently that it leads to more success.

 

[LeafsNation149]

Same. I think he's the Leafs highest scoring rookie next year

He's my favourite prospect, I'm expecting atleast one 50 point season from him in the next 3 years. I don't want Leafs to trade him at all unless it's for a massive overpayment XD

 

[Hale The Villain]

lol

Kadri draft year +1:
56gp - 35g, 58a, 93pts


Marner draft year +1:
57gp - 39g, 77a, 116pts

Pretty big difference.

Difference is large when you don't take quality of team and line-mates into consideration.

Kadri played with scrubs compared to Marner. Kadri led his team in points by 26 and there wasn't a single future NHLer besides him on that 2009/10 Knights team. Unlike Marner, he carried his line and was indisputably the best player on his team.

Marner put up those points playing on the most stacked line the CHL has seen in awhile. He didn't even lead his team in points, nor did he have the highest PPG.

Kadri wasn't as good of a player as Marner in junior, but the difference isn't nearly as big as Leafs fans would like to believe.

 

[HarrisonFord]

He's my favourite prospect, I'm expecting atleast one 50 point season from him in the next 3 years. I don't want Leafs to trade him at all unless it's for a massive overpayment XD

Agreed. And it's tough for a 6th rounder, no matter his production, to get fair value in return.

Difference is large when you don't take quality of team and line-mates into consideration.

Kadri played with scrubs compared to Marner. Kadri led his team in points by 26 and there wasn't a single future NHLer besides him on that 2009/10 Knights team. Unlike Marner, he carried his line and was indisputably the best player on his team.

Marner put up those points playing on the most stacked line the CHL has seen in awhile. He didn't even lead his team in points, nor did he have the highest PPG.

Kadri wasn't as good of a player as Marner in junior, but the difference isn't nearly as big as Leafs fans would like to believe.

Anybody who actually watched London knows that Marner was the best player on that line. The difference between Marner and Kadri is actually that big though