the only way the last year salary would matter here is if he was an RFA who was looking to sign a QO, but he's going to hit UFA. his current contract has no bearing on what GMs will offer – he'll get something in line with historical comps.
he'll be 28 when he signs his next contract. maybe 27 if he extends a year before. if he's looking for term, you're looking at 6-8 years. here's a list of every LHD contract that fits those parameters (6+ years, kicking in for age-28 season or later).
the only two guys who are even over $7m are roman josi and morgan rielly, both of whom were the unquestioned #1 defensemen on playoff teams. provorov isn't that – he's a solid second pair guy.
the next tier of guys (mcdonagh, krug, lindholm) are better comps for provorov – all signed for $6.5m, give or take. if you expand the list to also include RHD, you get more guys in that $6.5m neighborhood (parayko, faulk, weegar, ellis, severson).barring a sudden norris-level breakout from provorov, he's likely getting something in the $5.5m to $6.5m aav range on his next deal.
the funny thing about severson being on that list is that the devils were in a similar position to the jackets two years ago – severson was made expendable because of nemec and hughes. the same thing could happen to provorov if mateychuk/svozil continue to develop. so the jackets could do the severson sign-and-trade thing with provorov at that point.
