Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread XI

[stevo61]

I don't think he's close enough to get 9 games this year. That's my subjective opinion based on watching him but also Denton just turned 19 and he should be pretty busy just working on his basic mechanics.

Id say a fair bit of that depends on his skating. I kind of wish he could stick around and get some NHL practices and watch a couple games or maybe even dress in 1 but its doubtful. I dont think the team likes disrupting prospects seasons too much by hanging onto them either.

I did go back and look at former Moose Jaw Warrior Morgan Reilly because I couldnt remember who his 1st coach was but he broke in with Carlyle at 19 and got Babcock at 21. I never expect Mateychuk to make that kind of leap in skating but man if he can get even remotely close to Reilly skating wise it would be crazy what it could do to his game

 

[Cowumbus]

Pronman Jacket prospect rankings

Fantilli (elite NHL tier)
Jiricek (bubble all-star tier)
KJ (top of lineup tier)
Sillinger (middle of lineup tier)
Brindley (middle)
Svozil (middle)
Chinakhov (middle)
Mateychuk (middle)
Knazko (projected make NHL)
Dumais
Ceulemans
LDBB
Strathmann
Dolzhenkov

Has a chance to play:
Malatesta
McKown
Peddle
Pinelli
Pyyhtia
Richard
Whitelaw

Is that group good enough…

 

[CBJx614]

Pronman Jacket prospect rankings

Fantilli (elite NHL tier)
Jiricek (bubble all-star tier)
KJ (top of lineup tier)
Sillinger (middle of lineup tier)
Brindley (middle)
Svozil (middle)
Chinakhov (middle)
Mateychuk (middle)
Knazko (projected make NHL)
Dumais
Ceulemans
LDBB
Strathmann
Dolzhenkov

Has a chance to play:
Malatesta
McKown
Peddle
Pinelli
Pyyhtia
Richard
Whitelaw

Is that group good enough…

I mean it's good enough to be top 5 in the league? With stars like Gaudreau, Laine and Werenski locked up for the long term. There's probably gonna be a guy or two who over achieves and a guy or two who under achieves. But it really depends on Babs and the system he puts in place and how those kids are utilized and developed.

 

[stevo61]

Pronman Jacket prospect rankings

Fantilli (elite NHL tier)
Jiricek (bubble all-star tier)
KJ (top of lineup tier)
Sillinger (middle of lineup tier)
Brindley (middle)
Svozil (middle)
Chinakhov (middle)
Mateychuk (middle)
Knazko (projected make NHL)
Dumais
Ceulemans
LDBB
Strathmann
Dolzhenkov

Has a chance to play:
Malatesta
McKown
Peddle
Pinelli
Pyyhtia
Richard
Whitelaw

Is that group good enough…

Good enough for what? Its one of the highest ranked groups and we still have some solid pieces older than this group. I think a young core with Fantilli, Jiricek and Johnson at the top is pretty damn good. Im also higher on Mateychuk and on this specific list wonder why Knazko is above someone like Ceulemans

 

[Cowumbus]

Good enough for what? Its one of the highest ranked groups and we still have some solid pieces older than this group. I think a young core with Fantilli, Jiricek and Johnson at the top is pretty damn good. Im also higher on Mateychuk and on this specific list wonder why Knazko is above someone like Ceulemans

Good enough to win long term, we will have to wait and see.

 

[stevo61]

Good enough to win long term, we will have to wait and see.

I mean thats any prospect group period. Development obviously doesnt always go as expected good or bad. But when your group has an expected 1C, 1/2 RHD and a 1st line winger/center thats pretty good. Still have lots of upside with Sillinger, Mateychuk and Svozil behind the top guys also

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

Pronman Jacket prospect rankings

Fantilli (elite NHL tier)
Jiricek (bubble all-star tier)
KJ (top of lineup tier)
Sillinger (middle of lineup tier)
Brindley (middle)
Svozil (middle)
Chinakhov (middle)
Mateychuk (middle)
Knazko (projected make NHL)
Dumais
Ceulemans
LDBB
Strathmann
Dolzhenkov

Has a chance to play:
Malatesta
McKown
Peddle
Pinelli
Pyyhtia
Richard
Whitelaw

Is that group good enough…

Also juuust missing the age cutoff were 23 year olds Voronkov, Boqvist, Marchenko, Texier, Foudy, Berni, and Christiansen. I would assume all of these guys would be in at least the “projected to make NHL” category.

 

[Cowumbus]

I mean thats any prospect group period. Development obviously doesnt always go as expected good or bad. But when your group has an expected 1C, 1/2 RHD and a 1st line winger/center thats pretty good. Still have lots of upside with Sillinger, Mateychuk and Svozil behind the top guys also

Yeah sure. I just don’t see a lot of game breaking talent, or high end talent in general - especially compared to some other teams in the conference. New Jersey and Buffalo look to be better both now and in the future.

If they miss on Fantilli or Jiricek the whole system looks terrible for picking 8 times in the top 50 for 3 years straight…

 

[Cowumbus]

Also juuust missing the age cutoff were 23 year olds Voronkov, Boqvist, Marchenko, Texier, Foudy, Berni, and Christiansen. I would assume all of these guys would be in at least the “projected to make NHL” category.

None of those guys do anything for me tbh, replacement level players.
They need the Texier, Boqvist, Marchenko types to become good NHL players (all facets) very quickly - if they even can.

Obviously players can improve, but if guys haven’t really made strides by age 23/24 a lot of times they just never do. Even average bottom 6 guys like Matt Calvert found a way to stick at age 20.

 

[stevo61]

Yeah sure. I just don’t see a lot of game breaking talent, or high end talent in general - especially compared to some other teams in the conference. New Jersey and Buffalo look to be better both now and in the future.

If they miss on Fantilli or Jiricek the whole system looks terrible for picking 8 times in the top 50 for 3 years straight…

Yeah if you miss on a top 3 pick thats obviously an issue, I wont argue that. Missing on top picks had Edmonton and Buffalo in a bad way for a lot of years. I also think Sillinger getting back on track would relieve from stress from people so I want to see what Babcock can do for the young guys. But who with those top picks didnt you like them drafting? Ceulemans was the biggest question mark but he was the 3rd 1st rounder that year and they took a gamble on physical traits. Hes far from a finished product so we dont even know what we have there yet.

I cant remember where you stand with Laine but hes 25 and if he can stay healthy is an obvious piece is the high end talent level

 

[Cowumbus]

Yeah if you miss on a top 3 pick thats obviously an issue, I wont argue that. Missing on top picks had Edmonton and Buffalo in a bad way for a lot of years. I also think Sillinger getting back on track would relieve from stress from people so I want to see what Babcock can do for the young guys. But who with those top picks didnt you like them drafting? Ceulemans was the biggest question mark but he was the 3rd 1st rounder that year and they took a gamble on physical traits. Hes far from a finished product so we dont even know what we have there yet.

I cant remember where you stand with Laine but hes 25 and if he can stay healthy is an obvious piece is the high end talent level

That is a good point regarding Sillinger. Cuelemans is fine as a pick, but IMO they should have saved the 23rd OA pick this year simply for more “high end” prospect depth.

Laine is fine, but leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn’t seem as engaged as he was in WPG, maybe Babcock helps him get it back.

 

[CBJx614]

That is a good point regarding Sillinger. Cuelemans is fine as a pick, but IMO they should have saved the 23rd OA pick this year simply for more “high end” prospect depth.

Laine is fine, but leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn’t seem as engaged as he was in WPG, maybe Babcock helps him get it back.

We used the 1st for NHL ready high-end depth though..

 

[stevo61]

That is a good point regarding Sillinger. Cuelemans is fine as a pick, but IMO they should have saved the 23rd OA pick this year simply for more “high end” prospect depth.

Laine is fine, but leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn’t seem as engaged as he was in WPG, maybe Babcock helps him get it back.

Whats the odds pick 23 becomes as good as Provorov? If Columbus happened to like Brindley enough to take him even sooner at that pick how likely is pick 32 to become that good?

Not to mention we needed actual NHL defenders

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

None of those guys do anything for me tbh, replacement level players.
They need the Texier, Boqvist, Marchenko types to become good NHL players (all facets) very quickly - if they even can.

Obviously players can improve, but if guys haven’t really made strides by age 23/24 a lot of times they just never do. Even average bottom 6 guys like Matt Calvert found a way to stick at age 20.

I hear ya. I’m thinking about more in terms of the tier groupings from this piece. When there are only 14 people listed above “has a chance to play” category, guys like Berni and Foudy who have already achieved that status would at least be ranked above that and make for a group of like 20 deep instead.

I kind of disagree with how a lot of the individual players are grouped in this little experiment for our guys. McKown? Has a chance to play NHL games? Not a bad projection for a 20 year old that has already played games.

 

[Cowumbus]

We used the 1st for NHL ready high-end depth though..

(And a 2025 2nd) For two seasons that (probably) don’t matter?

Whats the odds pick 23 becomes as good as Provorov? If Columbus happened to like Brindley enough to take him even sooner at that pick how likely is pick 32 to become that good?

It’s really better framed as, what are the odds that pick 23OA and/or the 2025 2nd is worth 2 years of Provorov.

Even if one or both of the picks are worse players overall, is 8 years of control more valuable than the next two years of Provorov? (Rhetorical) Would you rather 8 years of Peeke/Texier+Foudy/Cuelemans, or 2 years from Ivan?

Not to mention we needed actual NHL defenders

Eh, I’m not sure about that. We really just needed healthy players, and we all kind of assumed we would get some type of D in UFA.

 

[stevo61]

For two seasons that don’t matter?


It’s really better framed as, what are the odds that pick is worth 2 years of Provorov.

Eh, I’m not sure about that. We really just needed healthy players.

Is it though? We dont know if hes dealt in year 2 to recoup a pick/player, if hes extended or if the team is good he's kept and lost to FA.

What is our defense without moves? Getting another top prospect would be cool and all but you could start to fall into that old Buffalo/Edmonton trap of where it can be hard to rebuild out of the losing culture.

Even if we only get 2 years of Provorov that keeps Mateychuk and Svozil out of the lineup and developing properly. Atleast the team has been more patient with D but I dont want to watch what we had to witness last year again after a couple injuries. We got a guy in Fantilli we shouldnt have on paper so I say stop trying your luck and start trying to create a better enviroment for all the young guys in the lineup or soon to be

 

[Cowumbus]

Is it though? We dont know if hes dealt in year 2 to recoup a pick/player, if hes extended or if the team is good he's kept and lost to FA.

If he’s dealt next year for a pick that would be frustrating, because the player we selected at 23OA would be at least a year closer to helping the team win than whoever we would draft next. I doubt they get him to sign here. He would be losing a lot of money by not going to UFA and playing bigger minutes elsewhere.

What is our defense without moves? Getting another top prospect would be cool and all but you could start to fall into that old Buffalo/Edmonton trap of where it can be hard to rebuild out of the losing culture.

Werenski Severson
Bean Boqvist
Peeke Gudbranson

So essentially the same D from 21/22 that got you 81 points, except Severson is playing for Gavrikov and Gudbranson over Kukan/Bayreuther.

Even if we only get 2 years of Provorov that keeps Mateychuk and Svozil out of the lineup and developing properly.

Werenski, Boqvist, Gudbranson, Bean, Blankenburg, Peeke, Jiricek, Christiansen, Sweezy, Knazko now Severson. Do we need Provorov to keep them out?

Atleast the team has been more patient with D but I dont want to watch what we had to witness last year again after a couple injuries. We got a guy in Fantilli we shouldnt have on paper so I say stop trying your luck and start trying to create a better enviroment for all the young guys in the lineup or soon to be

Last year was an anomaly.

 

[CBJx614]

If he’s dealt next year for a pick that would be frustrating, because the player we selected at 23OA would be at least a year closer to helping the team win than whoever we would draft next. I doubt they get him to sign here. He would be losing a lot of money by not going to UFA and playing bigger minutes elsewhere.

Werenski Severson
Bean Boqvist
Peeke Gudbranson

So essentially the same D from 21/22 that got you 81 points, except Severson is playing for Gavrikov and Gudbranson over Kukan/Bayreuther.

Werenski, Boqvist, Gudbranson, Bean, Blankenburg, Peeke, Jiricek, Christiansen, Sweezy, Knazko now Severson. Do we need Provorov to keep them out?

Last year was an anomaly.

Werenski and Severson are the only players you listed that are better than Provorov. If you want this team to compete you can't accept players like Christiansen, Sweezy and Knazko in the lineup. Because now you are rushing those guys into the league as they need time to develop further in the AHL, not playing over their heads in the NHL.

What's more likely than trading Provorov for a first and drafting someone is trading him for a pick and potentially flipping it for a roster player. If we're not competing for a playoff spot by the time we have to make a decision on Provorov we have bigger issues.

 

[Cowumbus]

Werenski and Severson are the only players you listed that are better than Provorov. If you want this team to compete you can't accept players like Christiansen, Sweezy and Knazko in the lineup. Because now you are rushing those guys into the league as they need time to develop further in the AHL, not playing over their heads in the NHL.

It’s not going to matter. They will not be competing this year even with Provorov. It doesn’t matter who is better? The point was having depth to keep Mateychuk and Svozil off the NHL ice… Werenski, Severson, Boqvist, Bean, Peeke, Gudbranson, Blankenburg, Jiricek then call ups like Sweezy and Christiansen are enough to keep Mateychuk/Svozil off the ice (not even sure I agree with Svozil being kept off).
I don’t even know why we are talking about Mateychuk when he’s going back to Moose Jaw this year.

What's more likely than trading Provorov for a first and drafting someone is trading him for a pick and potentially flipping it for a roster player.

Okay. I don’t think you’re going to get a valuable player with term doing that.

If we're not competing for a playoff spot by the time we have to make a decision on Provorov we have bigger issues.

You’re going to be disappointed when that is exactly the case

 

[CBJx614]

It’s not going to matter. They will not be competing this year even with Provorov. It doesn’t matter who is better? The point was having depth to keep Mateychuk and Svozil off the NHL ice… Werenski, Severson, Boqvist, Bean, Peeke, Gudbranson, Blankenburg, Jiricek then call ups like Sweezy and Christiansen are enough to keep Mateychuk/Svozil off the ice (not even sure I agree with Svozil being kept off).
I don’t even know why we are talking about Mateychuk when he’s going back to Moose Jaw this year.

Okay. I don’t think you’re going to get a valuable player with term doing that.

You’re going to be disappointed when that is exactly the case

Im not worried about Mateychuk yet, but already expecting guys like Christiansen and Knazko to be call ups is a recipe for disaster and keeps us from competing. They need to develop in the development league, not the NHL.

I personally think we look to extend Provorov, if he gets back to his old form in a new role he's exactly what we want the kids to be, so why move on from him when we'd likely be taking a step back for a few seasons. Keep Provorov and make players like Mateychuk overripen in the AHL and make them force their way into the lineup. They'll have plenty of opportunities throughout the seasons as injuries and trades happen.

And I'm glad you can see the future in your crystal ball. It happens almost every year, teams that are expected to compete stumble and struggle to get going, it's not crazy to think this team can compete this year. I'm not convinced we're going to make the playoffs, but I think we're in the hunt in the east.

 

[Cowumbus]

Im not worried about Mateychuk yet, but already expecting guys like Christiansen and Knazko to be call ups is a recipe for disaster and keeps us from competing. They need to develop in the development league, not the NHL.

Christiansen and Knazko have already played NHL games + multiple years of pro hockey. They would be call ups only if the 3-4 of the other guys ahead of them got hurt at the same time.

I personally think we look to extend Provorov, if he gets back to his old form in a new role he's exactly what we want the kids to be, so why move on from him when we'd likely be taking a step back for a few seasons. Keep Provorov and make players like Mateychuk overripen in the AHL and make them force their way into the lineup. They'll have plenty of opportunities throughout the seasons as injuries and trades happen.

I understand and agree that signing him is the best case scenario, but Provorov will make much more on the open market if he wants to.

 

[koteka]

I personally think we look to extend Provorov, if he gets back to his old form in a new role he's exactly what we want the kids to be, so why move on from him when we'd likely be taking a step back for a few seasons. Keep Provorov and make players like Mateychuk overripen in the AHL and make them force their way into the lineup.

If you keep Provorov (let’s say $8.5 million x 8), that is a lot of money on left D. It also means at least one of Knazko or Mateychuk will not be happy that they have two highly paid left D ahead of them with lots of term. Maybe you are cool with that.

My view is you have to move Provorov and benefit from the cheaper contracts of young Mateychuk and Knazko so you can spend money on Jiricek, Johnson, and Fantilli. Lock those guys up for 8 years on their second contracts if we believe in them.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

If you keep Provorov (let’s say $8.5 million x 8)

dawg, who is saying that

My view is you have to move Provorov and benefit from the cheaper contracts of young Mateychuk and Knazko so you can spend money on Jiricek, Johnson, and Fantilli. Lock those guys up for 8 years on their second contracts if we believe in them.

the point of having provorov for two years is to not suck while mateychuk and svozil develop.

people here complain until they're blue in the face that the jackets rush their prospects to the NHL too quickly – provorov exists to block them for the next two years and make the team better. the only way they extend him is if their prospects bomb. he's a two-year rental.

 

[koteka]

dawg, who is saying that

The guy I am responding to and literally quoted said “I personally think we look to extend Provorov”. Provorov currently has a cap hit of $6.8 million and will be making $8.6 million in 24-25. What do you think extending him will cost?

 

[CBJx614]

If you keep Provorov (let’s say $8.5 million x 8), that is a lot of money on left D. It also means at least one of Knazko or Mateychuk will not be happy that they have two highly paid left D ahead of them with lots of term. Maybe you are cool with that.

My view is you have to move Provorov and benefit from the cheaper contracts of young Mateychuk and Knazko so you can spend money on Jiricek, Johnson, and Fantilli. Lock those guys up for 8 years on their second contracts if we believe in them.

Okay cool, Mateychuk and Knazko arent the same caliber of prospect, Knazko could likely be a career AHLer or could get moved and it doesn't affect the CBJ one bit.

Mateychuk hasn't even started his ELC yet, so he's got 3-5 years before he has any say about his TOI. You want play time, earn it, force us to make moves to make a roster spot for you.

When we say we want players to develop in the AHL that's what we're talking about. Mateychuk doesn't have any room to be upset about veteran players in the lineup ahead of him, his only claim right now is that he was a 1st round pick.

dawg, who is saying that

the point of having provorov for two years is to not suck while mateychuk and svozil develop.

people here complain until they're blue in the face that the jackets rush their prospects to the NHL too quickly – provorov exists to block them for the next two years and make the team better. the only way they extend him is if their prospects bomb. he's a two-year rental.

I don't think it's that simple. Let's say Mateychuk needs time to stew, it's not given that he's instantly going to be able to make the jump from the CHL, to the NHL without needing a season or two in the AHL at least. Hell we're talking about Jiricek needing another season in the AHL still. It's not a bad thing. These guys need to be too good for the AHL before we start making spots for them. Which is the exact opposite what we'd be doing by expecting Mateychuk to step up and take over Provorovs spot. You're talking about a rookie taking over for a 10 yr vet and expecting to stay competitive.

Like I replied to koteka, we have 3-5 years before we have to worry about making cap space for Mateychuk. (ELC + possible bridge)

It all depends on Provorov. If he goes out and kills it this season, does he now accept that maybe he's best served as a 3/4 and not a 1/2? Maybe he wants to win and is happy in his current role and living situation? It's not always about money, Gaudreau just made that very point.