Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread XI

Doggy

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Oct 11, 2011
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1. Bedard
2. Michkov
3. Fantilli
4. Carlsson
5. Smith
6. Cooley :confused:
7. Hughes
8. Nemec
9. Jiricek
10. Clarke
What I find interesting is that Wheeler has Shane Wright all the way down at #14. The kid goes from expected to go #1 overall last year down to #14 on this list.
 

DoingItCoolKiwi

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May 23, 2017
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1. Bedard
2. Michkov
3. Fantilli
4. Carlsson
5. Smith
6. Cooley :confused:
7. Hughes
8. Nemec
9. Jiricek
10. Clarke
Wonder how he landed at Nemec > Jiricek. Stats in the same league suggest the opposite, and I truly don't believe he has time to also watch AHL along while he is scouting the entire next draft class
 
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stevo61

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I have a hard time believing that if "people" here means those who have watched games of both players' D+1 season regularly.
Ive seen an ok amount of Korchinski games and not as many Mintyukov games as Id like but some and I like Mintyukov's 2 way upside much more. Ive never really been in love with Korchinski's game but I do recognize he has a lot of skill. I like Mateychuk more but not to a degree Id argue about it, Mintyukov I feel like should be ranked a bit higher. I knew Chicago was banking on upside with the Korchinski pick but I gave a bit of a "wow" when his name was called at 7
 
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squashmaple

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Wonder how he landed at Nemec > Jiricek. Stats in the same league suggest the opposite, and I truly don't believe he has time to also watch AHL along while he is scouting the entire next draft class
From what I've gleaned, a lot of Jiricek's points came on the PP and he had almost double the PIM, while Nemec's points were mostly 5-on-5. Jiricek's season was flashy, Nemec's was solid.
 

Xoggz22

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Bedard's ELC is going to be wasted as they hope to build their prospect pool. Chicago is in awful shape. It's barren beyond their top 5 and there is little to nothing at the NHL level. This is a long rebuild for them and I hope they surround him with reasonable veterans if they want him to fulfill his potential. He's no McJesus and look how long it's taken EDM... could be a long strange trip for Bedard.
 

majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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People really seem to love Korchinski, putting him ahead of Mintyukov is a choice

What I find interesting is that Wheeler has Shane Wright all the way down at #14. The kid goes from expected to go #1 overall last year down to #14 on this list.

FWIW, on HF's annual polls going on now, Mintyukov was voted in at 13th, Wright 14th, and Korchinski isn't getting votes yet, he'll probably be closer to 40th.


Fantilli was voted in 2nd, and Jiricek 7th. My guess is that Mateychuk won't get in the top 50 this year.
 
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stevo61

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Bedard's ELC is going to be wasted as they hope to build their prospect pool. Chicago is in awful shape. It's barren beyond their top 5 and there is little to nothing at the NHL level. This is a long rebuild for them and I hope they surround him with reasonable veterans if they want him to fulfill his potential. He's no McJesus and look how long it's taken EDM... could be a long strange trip for Bedard.
Yeah they are in a weird spot getting their superstar a bit too early, obviously they wouldnt change at thing but realistically they should be in the Celebrini/Demidov whoever else you put at the top of this draft race. Bedard will be fine but hes definitely going to have some learning experinces this year. Luckily for him hes had a taste of not much support in Regina
 

stevo61

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FWIW, on HF's annual polls going on now, Mintyukov was voted in at 13th, Wright 14th, and Korchinski isn't getting votes yet, he'll probably be closer to 40th.


Fantilli was voted in 2nd, and Jiricek 7th. My guess is that Mateychuk won't get in the top 50 this year.
Its interesting comparing those lists for sure. You can see draft position bias a bit in both but usually less in HF. Luckily no major fanbase has gone out of their way to dictate a crazy pick but NJ wanted too :laugh: it wouldnt have been blatantly terrible ranking though.

The other cool thing with HF is you can debate and once your here long enough you can find out who has opinions you really trust or value the same things you do. Maybe if you dont see a player a lot and dont have a high opinion of him a Wheeler ranking wont do anything for me but if certain posters go up to bat for a guy Ill look again
 

Jovavic

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Bedard's ELC is going to be wasted as they hope to build their prospect pool. Chicago is in awful shape. It's barren beyond their top 5 and there is little to nothing at the NHL level. This is a long rebuild for them and I hope they surround him with reasonable veterans if they want him to fulfill his potential. He's no McJesus and look how long it's taken EDM... could be a long strange trip for Bedard.
We can only hope, a pox on that team
 
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CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
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Time for my yearly Top 20 list before we as a group decide on our list. This years list was pretty hard, our group is pretty solid. If you're looking for my list last year with explanations, you can click here. But if you're lazy like me, you can just look at the names here.

1. Kent Johnson
2. David Jiricek
3. Kirill Marchenko
4. Corson Ceulemans
5. Nick Blankenburg
6. Yegor Chinakhov
7. Denton Mateychuk
8. Guilliame Richard
9. Liam Foudy
10. Daniil Tarasov
11. Dmitry Voronkov
12. Stanislav Svozil
13. Samuel Knazko
14. Luca Del Bel Belluz
15. Jacob Christiansen
16. Jordan Dumais
17. Mikael Pyyhtia
18. Nikolai Makarov
19. Trey-Fix Wolansky
20. Aiden Hreschuk
As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.

*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*


Graduated: Johnson, Chinakhov, Foudy, Blankenburg,
In: Fantilli, McKown, Brindley, Whitelaw, Dolzchenkov, Malatesta, Ivanov
Out: Hreschuk, Christiansen, Richard

1. Adam Fantilli, C
2. David Jiricek, D
3. Kirill Marchenko, W
4. Stanislav Svozil, D
5. Denton Mateychuk, D
6. Gavin Brindley, C/W
7. Dmitri Voronkov, C/W
8. Jordan Dumais, W
9. James Malatesta, W
10. Hunter McKown, C/W
11. Corson Ceulemans, D
12. Daniil Tarasov, G
13. Luca Del Bel Belluz, C
14. William Whitelaw, W
15. Kirill Dolzchenkov, W
16. Sergei Ivanov, G
17. Trey Fix-Wolansky, W
18. Samuel Knazko, D
19. Nikolai Makarov, D
20. Mikael Pyythia, C/W

I only included 3 players from our most recent draft. That seems pretty low to me, and I tried REALLY hard to include Jet Greaves (and I still go back and forth on 16-20 on various guys).

Our prospect pool is very deep and our top 3 goes toe to toe with anyone in the league I feel. Adam Fantilli would have been a first overall pick in almost any other draft. He will hopefully be the elite 1C we've been searching for since Dubois, and hopefully is better than any draft pick we've ever had.

David Jiricek would be the #1 prospect on most teams in the league. He had a very impressive first season in the AHL, and although he wasn't very good in the limited NHL games he got, the moves made at the NHL level will be very beneficial to allow us to wait for him to be completely ready. But until then, he will get meaningful minutes in the pros. When he develops I think he will be a top pairing all around defenseman.

Marchenko will have an amazing role on the team this year, and just barely made the cut to be included on the list. Again, he would be a lot higher on other teams lists.

The next group with Svozil, Mateychuk, Brindley, Voronkov, and Dumais is a very solid group. I just feel like Svozil has the most upside. I don't necessarily think he will be a point producing defenseman, but I think he will be a solid top 4 defenseman that can play with anyone. Mateychuk is coming along nicely and will be in a similar type as Svozil where I don't think he will pile up points (more than Svozil though) but will be able to do anything you want.

Brindley I feel like will be our version of Brendan Gallagher. He will go back to Michigan this year and will be a nice piece for that team. If he develops fully, I think he could be a top 9 pest who can put up 40ish points and bring the energy to the team. Voronkov I feel like will be a battering ram in our bottom 6 that can bring a bit of offensive flare. I feel like he will be a more physical but less offensive Brandon Dubinsky. With Dumais I see a lot of top six ability, but I don't know if he will fit in with the pro game. He can obviously put up points, but can he do other things that require you to be an NHL player? If not, he could have a very TFW esc career.

Malatesta is the biggest riser as he just missed my list last year. Obviously becoming the MVP of the league and the playoffs would do that. I see a lot of Matt Calvert in his game, but maybe with more offensive upside. It will be a big year for him.

McKown is one person I didn't even expect to have this high on the list when we got him, but his play in a few of the games towards the end of the year was encouraging, especially the Buffalo game. He also showed out in development camp. I have high hopes for him even if he might be in Cleveland for a while.

Ceulemans is one of the bigger fallers, I just don't know if he has the ability to make it very far into the NHL. He was underwhelming at Wisconsin, and some of that wasn't his fault, but even in his AHL games he was pretty mediocre. He will take a while if he makes it, and if he does I feel like he will be a bottom pairing PP guy.

I think we all know about Tarasov. A lot of potential, and a lot of injuries. Can he reach it?

LDBB, Whitelaw, and Dolzchenkov also share similar upside to me, however with different roles. LDBB I feel like could be a bottom 6 defensive forward, Whitelaw as a 3rd line scorer (if everything hits), and Dolzchenkov is a mystery box and if everything falls into place for him he could make a nice 3rd line energy guy.

The next group all kind of share longshot odds. Ivanov has had great stats in limited action, however he is a smaller goalie so we will see how he progresses. TFW seems like a career AHL scorer, at least on this team. Knazko feels trapped behind a lot of prospects and even though his production seems decent, I just don't know if the toolbox is there to be much more than an AHL call up.

Makarov and Pyythia are the wild cards here. I feel like Makarov is developing in a similar path to Gavrikov, and playing major minutes in the KHL playoffs seems like he is well on his way to becoming an NHL player. Pyythia is a few years removed from a great season in Finland, and I am interested to see whether or not he replicates the success in Cleveland this year, and I did like how he played in his NHL action.

Another big faller on my list was Richard, he hasn't progressed the way I thought he would and I don't know if he will get a contract after his college career ends. He fell off the list completely because of this.
 

Youngguns1380

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Time for my yearly Top 20 list before we as a group decide on our list. This years list was pretty hard, our group is pretty solid. If you're looking for my list last year with explanations, you can click here. But if you're lazy like me, you can just look at the names here.


As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.

*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*


Graduated: Johnson, Chinakhov, Foudy, Blankenburg,
In: Fantilli, McKown, Brindley, Whitelaw, Dolzchenkov, Malatesta, Ivanov
Out: Hreschuk, Christiansen, Richard

1. Adam Fantilli, C
2. David Jiricek, D
3. Kirill Marchenko, W
4. Stanislav Svozil, D
5. Denton Mateychuk, D
6. Gavin Brindley, C/W
7. Dmitri Voronkov, C/W
8. Jordan Dumais, W
9. James Malatesta, W
10. Hunter McKown, C/W
11. Corson Ceulemans, D
12. Daniil Tarasov, G
13. Luca Del Bel Belluz, C
14. William Whitelaw, W
15. Kirill Dolzchenkov, W
16. Sergei Ivanov, G
17. Trey Fix-Wolansky, W
18. Samuel Knazko, D
19. Nikolai Makarov, D
20. Mikael Pyythia, C/W

I only included 3 players from our most recent draft. That seems pretty low to me, and I tried REALLY hard to include Jet Greaves (and I still go back and forth on 16-20 on various guys).

Our prospect pool is very deep and our top 3 goes toe to toe with anyone in the league I feel. Adam Fantilli would have been a first overall pick in almost any other draft. He will hopefully be the elite 1C we've been searching for since Dubois, and hopefully is better than any draft pick we've ever had.

David Jiricek would be the #1 prospect on most teams in the league. He had a very impressive first season in the AHL, and although he wasn't very good in the limited NHL games he got, the moves made at the NHL level will be very beneficial to allow us to wait for him to be completely ready. But until then, he will get meaningful minutes in the pros. When he develops I think he will be a top pairing all around defenseman.

Marchenko will have an amazing role on the team this year, and just barely made the cut to be included on the list. Again, he would be a lot higher on other teams lists.

The next group with Svozil, Mateychuk, Brindley, Voronkov, and Dumais is a very solid group. I just feel like Svozil has the most upside. I don't necessarily think he will be a point producing defenseman, but I think he will be a solid top 4 defenseman that can play with anyone. Mateychuk is coming along nicely and will be in a similar type as Svozil where I don't think he will pile up points (more than Svozil though) but will be able to do anything you want.

Brindley I feel like will be our version of Brendan Gallagher. He will go back to Michigan this year and will be a nice piece for that team. If he develops fully, I think he could be a top 9 pest who can put up 40ish points and bring the energy to the team. Voronkov I feel like will be a battering ram in our bottom 6 that can bring a bit of offensive flare. I feel like he will be a more physical but less offensive Brandon Dubinsky. With Dumais I see a lot of top six ability, but I don't know if he will fit in with the pro game. He can obviously put up points, but can he do other things that require you to be an NHL player? If not, he could have a very TFW esc career.

Malatesta is the biggest riser as he just missed my list last year. Obviously becoming the MVP of the league and the playoffs would do that. I see a lot of Matt Calvert in his game, but maybe with more offensive upside. It will be a big year for him.

McKown is one person I didn't even expect to have this high on the list when we got him, but his play in a few of the games towards the end of the year was encouraging, especially the Buffalo game. He also showed out in development camp. I have high hopes for him even if he might be in Cleveland for a while.

Ceulemans is one of the bigger fallers, I just don't know if he has the ability to make it very far into the NHL. He was underwhelming at Wisconsin, and some of that wasn't his fault, but even in his AHL games he was pretty mediocre. He will take a while if he makes it, and if he does I feel like he will be a bottom pairing PP guy.

I think we all know about Tarasov. A lot of potential, and a lot of injuries. Can he reach it?

LDBB, Whitelaw, and Dolzchenkov also share similar upside to me, however with different roles. LDBB I feel like could be a bottom 6 defensive forward, Whitelaw as a 3rd line scorer (if everything hits), and Dolzchenkov is a mystery box and if everything falls into place for him he could make a nice 3rd line energy guy.

The next group all kind of share longshot odds. Ivanov has had great stats in limited action, however he is a smaller goalie so we will see how he progresses. TFW seems like a career AHL scorer, at least on this team. Knazko feels trapped behind a lot of prospects and even though his production seems decent, I just don't know if the toolbox is there to be much more than an AHL call up.

Makarov and Pyythia are the wild cards here. I feel like Makarov is developing in a similar path to Gavrikov, and playing major minutes in the KHL playoffs seems like he is well on his way to becoming an NHL player. Pyythia is a few years removed from a great season in Finland, and I am interested to see whether or not he replicates the success in Cleveland this year, and I did like how he played in his NHL action.

Another big faller on my list was Richard, he hasn't progressed the way I thought he would and I don't know if he will get a contract after his college career ends. He fell off the list completely because of this.
I agree except McKown is definitely top 5. I actually think if Sillinger doesn’t pick it up. I think McKown will pass him on the depth chart. He is that good.
 
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NotTooWideArena

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Based on age, I feel Sillinger is still a prospect.

Last season was such a dud for him I understand thinking he is at risk of slipping from prospect to suspect. But at the end of last season he was literally a teen-ager with almost two full years of NHL experience.

My hunch is if Jarmo wanted to give up on Sillinger he would find plenty of interested potential buyers. They would offer pennies on the dollar, of course.

I hope (and trust) that Jarmo is nowhere near that mindset. I expect good things from him this coming season.
 

Youngguns1380

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Do we consider Sillinger a prospect again? I feel maybe Marchenko has graduated and Sillinger is back on the prospect list.
No - I am saying that McKown could pass Sillinger on the bigger center depth chart in the fall if Sillinger's skating/game hasn't been addressed.

McKown's showing end of last season and rookie camp this year was eye-opening to the possibilities. He and Fantilli looked liked veterans compared to everyone else (rookie camp). McKown is very good at face-offs, physical, size, shoot first, showed defensive responsibility (this was his calling card in Colorado College), skating and has the Hockey IQ (brain). I am a big fan of McKown, I am not saying he is a 1C but I feel his ceiling is 2/3C or top 9 from the tools I have seen/play, being how Babcock has explained 2 centers on a line this could possibly be his in and he is a right shot. Now I will caveat that he has 1 more year of development than Sillinger but his skating is wayy better.

"The defensive zone was really where McKown shone brightest. His game lends itself better to centre than it does the wing, simply because he's so damn good at supporting his defencemen in the corners and his wings in transition. He plays sound positional hockey and picks up the open person well to mitigate scoring opportunities". -EliteProspects 2020 NHL Draft Guide
 
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Double-Shift Lasse

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Time for my yearly Top 20 list before we as a group decide on our list. This years list was pretty hard, our group is pretty solid. If you're looking for my list last year with explanations, you can click here. But if you're lazy like me, you can just look at the names here.


As always, I use the same criteria. How good they are now, how good they can be, and the likelihood they get there. These are all, of course, in my opinion.

*Keep in mind my criteria to be a prospect might be different than others. My criteria is you are considered a prospect if you have less than 82 games played in the NHL as a skater, a full season, or 30 starts as a goalie. Also anyone at or over the age of 25 will either be considered graduated or not a true prospect anymore.*


Graduated: Johnson, Chinakhov, Foudy, Blankenburg,
In: Fantilli, McKown, Brindley, Whitelaw, Dolzchenkov, Malatesta, Ivanov
Out: Hreschuk, Christiansen, Richard

1. Adam Fantilli, C
2. David Jiricek, D
3. Kirill Marchenko, W
4. Stanislav Svozil, D
5. Denton Mateychuk, D
6. Gavin Brindley, C/W
7. Dmitri Voronkov, C/W
8. Jordan Dumais, W
9. James Malatesta, W
10. Hunter McKown, C/W
11. Corson Ceulemans, D
12. Daniil Tarasov, G
13. Luca Del Bel Belluz, C
14. William Whitelaw, W
15. Kirill Dolzchenkov, W
16. Sergei Ivanov, G
17. Trey Fix-Wolansky, W
18. Samuel Knazko, D
19. Nikolai Makarov, D
20. Mikael Pyythia, C/W

I only included 3 players from our most recent draft. That seems pretty low to me, and I tried REALLY hard to include Jet Greaves (and I still go back and forth on 16-20 on various guys).

Our prospect pool is very deep and our top 3 goes toe to toe with anyone in the league I feel. Adam Fantilli would have been a first overall pick in almost any other draft. He will hopefully be the elite 1C we've been searching for since Dubois, and hopefully is better than any draft pick we've ever had.

David Jiricek would be the #1 prospect on most teams in the league. He had a very impressive first season in the AHL, and although he wasn't very good in the limited NHL games he got, the moves made at the NHL level will be very beneficial to allow us to wait for him to be completely ready. But until then, he will get meaningful minutes in the pros. When he develops I think he will be a top pairing all around defenseman.

Marchenko will have an amazing role on the team this year, and just barely made the cut to be included on the list. Again, he would be a lot higher on other teams lists.

The next group with Svozil, Mateychuk, Brindley, Voronkov, and Dumais is a very solid group. I just feel like Svozil has the most upside. I don't necessarily think he will be a point producing defenseman, but I think he will be a solid top 4 defenseman that can play with anyone. Mateychuk is coming along nicely and will be in a similar type as Svozil where I don't think he will pile up points (more than Svozil though) but will be able to do anything you want.

Brindley I feel like will be our version of Brendan Gallagher. He will go back to Michigan this year and will be a nice piece for that team. If he develops fully, I think he could be a top 9 pest who can put up 40ish points and bring the energy to the team. Voronkov I feel like will be a battering ram in our bottom 6 that can bring a bit of offensive flare. I feel like he will be a more physical but less offensive Brandon Dubinsky. With Dumais I see a lot of top six ability, but I don't know if he will fit in with the pro game. He can obviously put up points, but can he do other things that require you to be an NHL player? If not, he could have a very TFW esc career.

Malatesta is the biggest riser as he just missed my list last year. Obviously becoming the MVP of the league and the playoffs would do that. I see a lot of Matt Calvert in his game, but maybe with more offensive upside. It will be a big year for him.

McKown is one person I didn't even expect to have this high on the list when we got him, but his play in a few of the games towards the end of the year was encouraging, especially the Buffalo game. He also showed out in development camp. I have high hopes for him even if he might be in Cleveland for a while.

Ceulemans is one of the bigger fallers, I just don't know if he has the ability to make it very far into the NHL. He was underwhelming at Wisconsin, and some of that wasn't his fault, but even in his AHL games he was pretty mediocre. He will take a while if he makes it, and if he does I feel like he will be a bottom pairing PP guy.

I think we all know about Tarasov. A lot of potential, and a lot of injuries. Can he reach it?

LDBB, Whitelaw, and Dolzchenkov also share similar upside to me, however with different roles. LDBB I feel like could be a bottom 6 defensive forward, Whitelaw as a 3rd line scorer (if everything hits), and Dolzchenkov is a mystery box and if everything falls into place for him he could make a nice 3rd line energy guy.

The next group all kind of share longshot odds. Ivanov has had great stats in limited action, however he is a smaller goalie so we will see how he progresses. TFW seems like a career AHL scorer, at least on this team. Knazko feels trapped behind a lot of prospects and even though his production seems decent, I just don't know if the toolbox is there to be much more than an AHL call up.

Makarov and Pyythia are the wild cards here. I feel like Makarov is developing in a similar path to Gavrikov, and playing major minutes in the KHL playoffs seems like he is well on his way to becoming an NHL player. Pyythia is a few years removed from a great season in Finland, and I am interested to see whether or not he replicates the success in Cleveland this year, and I did like how he played in his NHL action.

Another big faller on my list was Richard, he hasn't progressed the way I thought he would and I don't know if he will get a contract after his college career ends. He fell off the list completely because of this.
Ok but with one glaring omission.

;)
 
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cbjthrowaway

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Jul 4, 2020
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I only included 3 players from our most recent draft. That seems pretty low to me, and I tried REALLY hard to include Jet Greaves (and I still go back and forth on 16-20 on various guys).
awesome detail and rationale, excellent post. i have a few major disagreements, especially on this point as you'll see from my list:
  1. fantilli
  2. jiricek
  3. mateychuk
  4. marchenko/sillinger (don't think both are 'prospects' but could include either one here)
  5. svozil
  6. dumais
  7. brindley
  8. ceulemans
  9. del bel belluz
  10. whitelaw
  11. pinelli
  12. voronkov
  13. malatesta
  14. strathmann*
  15. mckown
  16. dolzhenkov
  17. fix-wolansky
  18. peddle
  19. makarov
  20. knazko
just missed: fisher, richard, angle

tiers would be:
  1. star/core player (1-2)
  2. good complimentary top six forward or top four defenseman (3-7)
  3. similar upside to tier 2, but lower probability/longer dev path (8-11)
  4. bottom six/bottom pair upside but high probability (12-16)
  5. AHL depth/call-up (17-20+)
differences from your list:
  • imo pinelli and strathmann both have legit NHL upside, which i don't see for guys like fix-wolansky, pyyhtia or knazko.
  • i'm also the low guy on voronkov – i see more tomas nosek than boone jenner – he'll be an NHLer but i don't see the footspeed or skill/creativity to play above the bottom six
  • also the low guy on malatesta. i project him as a ryan lomberg type pest who is highly effective in a bottom six role.
  • still the high guy on ceulemans too – the toolkit is absurd, and he's a high-activation defenseman; cbj has done well with those guys lately. going from wisconsin (no structure) to a full-time AHL role should be great for his development.
  • i didn't rank goalies because, frankly, i have no clue how to evaluate them or project their development.
 
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CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
Jun 13, 2009
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differences from your list:
  • imo pinelli and strathmann both have legit NHL upside, which i don't see for guys like fix-wolansky, pyyhtia or knazko.
  • i'm also the low guy on voronkov – i see more tomas nosek than boone jenner – he'll be an NHLer but i don't see the footspeed or skill/creativity to play above the bottom six
  • also the low guy on malatesta. i project him as a ryan lomberg type pest who is highly effective in a bottom six role.
  • still the high guy on ceulemans too – the toolkit is absurd, and he's a high-activation defenseman; cbj has done well with those guys lately. going from wisconsin (no structure) to a full-time AHL role should be great for his development.
  • i didn't rank goalies because, frankly, i have no clue how to evaluate them or project their development.
Regarding Sillinger, I debated last year whether or not to include him. But he spent the whole year in the NHL so I graduated him. If he was still eligible I think I’d have him at either 4 or 5.

Yeah, like I said I didn’t love omitting this years draft class. It didn’t feel right. I get what you’re saying about upside with TFW, Knazko, and Pyyhtia. I just thought TFW has blown up the AHL for a few years now and it didn’t feel right to exclude him. Same reason why I included Angle a few years ago, but now he’s nowhere to be found. Just trying to give respect to the guy even if I don’t know if he’ll ever be a sticking guy in the NHL.

Pyyhtia I do believe in but we’ll see how he does in the AHL full time. Knazko will also be developing in a lesser role so we’ll see how that sticks.

Pinelli, Greaves, and Strathmann were the guys I really had trouble keeping out. And like I said, from 16-20 I debated a ton of guys. Hell even Jake Christiansen deserves some more love. It’s a hard list to do.
 

CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
Jun 13, 2009
43,790
26,850
Do we consider Sillinger a prospect again? I feel maybe Marchenko has graduated and Sillinger is back on the prospect list.
For me, once you graduate you graduate. There’s no going back. He’s not included because he’s played a full season of nhl games and has spent an entire season in the NHL (which marchenko has done neither).

If he was still eligible I would probably have him 4th.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
26,774
32,936
awesome detail and rationale, excellent post. i have a few major disagreements, especially on this point as you'll see from my list:
  1. fantilli
  2. jiricek
  3. mateychuk
  4. marchenko/sillinger (don't think both are 'prospects' but could include either one here)
  5. svozil
  6. dumais
  7. brindley
  8. ceulemans
  9. del bel belluz
  10. whitelaw
  11. pinelli
  12. voronkov
  13. malatesta
  14. strathmann*
  15. mckown
  16. dolzhenkov
  17. fix-wolansky
  18. peddle
  19. makarov
  20. knazko
just missed: fisher, richard, angle

tiers would be:
  1. star/core player (1-2)
  2. good complimentary top six forward or top four defenseman (3-7)
  3. similar upside to tier 2, but lower probability/longer dev path (8-11)
  4. bottom six/bottom pair upside but high probability (12-16)
  5. AHL depth/call-up (17-20+)
differences from your list:
  • imo pinelli and strathmann both have legit NHL upside, which i don't see for guys like fix-wolansky, pyyhtia or knazko.
  • i'm also the low guy on voronkov – i see more tomas nosek than boone jenner – he'll be an NHLer but i don't see the footspeed or skill/creativity to play above the bottom six
  • also the low guy on malatesta. i project him as a ryan lomberg type pest who is highly effective in a bottom six role.
  • still the high guy on ceulemans too – the toolkit is absurd, and he's a high-activation defenseman; cbj has done well with those guys lately. going from wisconsin (no structure) to a full-time AHL role should be great for his development.
  • i didn't rank goalies because, frankly, i have no clue how to evaluate them or project their development.

The way I think about it, the probability of a late rounder making it drops as the years pass unless they really show you something like Voronkov has. So I like that you included Pinelli and Strathmann at the expense of TFW and Knazko. None of them have good odds but Pinelli and Strathmann have a lot more time to make a new trajectory. I haven't watched them yet so I don't know if I'll rank them, but in the abstract I like including recent late rounders. Pyyhtia I like more though, he just looks intelligent in his positioning and passing. I think there's more there.

When I watched the Monsters they looked super chaotic, Ceulemans fit right in. Not a lot of structure for him. That might improve if we have less injuries as an org but the AHL in general is a messy league.

Regarding Sillinger, I debated last year whether or not to include him. But he spent the whole year in the NHL so I graduated him. If he was still eligible I think I’d have him at either 4 or 5.

Yeah, like I said I didn’t love omitting this years draft class. It didn’t feel right. I get what you’re saying about upside with TFW, Knazko, and Pyyhtia. I just thought TFW has blown up the AHL for a few years now and it didn’t feel right to exclude him. Same reason why I included Angle a few years ago, but now he’s nowhere to be found. Just trying to give respect to the guy even if I don’t know if he’ll ever be a sticking guy in the NHL.

Pyyhtia I do believe in but we’ll see how he does in the AHL full time. Knazko will also be developing in a lesser role so we’ll see how that sticks.

Pinelli, Greaves, and Strathmann were the guys I really had trouble keeping out. And like I said, from 16-20 I debated a ton of guys. Hell even Jake Christiansen deserves some more love. It’s a hard list to do.

In the Monsters games i watched Christiansen was the clear cut best player on the ice. He gave up PP time so his points dropped but he's a stronger better player now. I thought he was fine at the NHL level too. Not Calder eligible so he might not be eligible when I get around to my list.
 

CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
Jun 13, 2009
43,790
26,850
In the Monsters games i watched Christiansen was the clear cut best player on the ice. He gave up PP time so his points dropped but he's a stronger better player now. I thought he was fine at the NHL level too. Not Calder eligible so he might not be eligible when I get around to my list.
Yeah, he’s a solid depth piece. I don’t know if he’s an NHL player full time but if Scott harrington can stick around then Christiansen could too.
 

koteka

Registered User
Jan 1, 2017
4,471
4,832
Central Ohio
No - I am saying that McKown could pass Sillinger on the bigger center depth chart in the fall if Sillinger's skating/game hasn't been addressed.

I get that. I am asking in general, not addressed to you, if Sillinger is a prospect again. He finished the season in the AHL, he just turned 20, and people talk about the parts of his game he needs to improve. That sounds like a prospect more than Marchenko who is 23 and finished the season in the NHL.
 
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koteka

Registered User
Jan 1, 2017
4,471
4,832
Central Ohio
For me, once you graduate you graduate. There’s no going back. He’s not included because he’s played a full season of nhl games and has spent an entire season in the NHL (which marchenko has done neither).

If he was still eligible I would probably have him 4th.

I generally agree, but Sillinger is a weird case. He was rushed because we needed him, but most of this board thought he should have been in the AHL a lot sooner. I think he is a prospect.
 
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Double-Shift Lasse

Just post better
Dec 22, 2004
34,684
15,915
Exurban Cbus
The “is Sillinger a prospect” is an interesting question. Just a heads-up though as we head into prospect ranking voting season, he will not be for those purposes. The simple and straightforward criteria are “under 25 and have not spent the majority of a season in the NHL.”
 

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