Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread XI

[Toe Pick]

I was at the OSU-Wisconsin game last night. Ceulemans does have nice size and moves well. He played in key situations and of course, as mentioned, had a couple goals.

That said -- the guy that keeps impressing me is Mason Lohrei for the Buckeyes. His hockey IQ is off the charts, great hands, and he moves EXCELLENT for a 6'4" dman. He's got 27 points in 29 games as a freshman! To me he was the best player on the ice and it wasn't really close. Seems like a helluva steal for the Bruins in the second round.

Love watching this guy play and I highly recommend getting out for a Buckeyes game this year -- they play again tonight at 8 and are ranked 8th overall in the country.

Also -- the OSU women's team is ranked #2 and their games are free. Great hockey to watch, and if you have a daughter who plays like I do -- great for them to see what women's hockey at a high level looks like.

 

[VT]

I believe SKA can technically hold him until 4/30 which is when his contract officially expires. Wouldn't totally surprise me given the way they've treated him this year.

SKA won't have to hope him but he can play on WC. If not COVID-19 he could play OG. True it will be important how Russia will play on OG, whether these coaches will stay.

 

[EspenK]

FWIW Here are Scott Wheelers rankings compared to ours. Pretty close at the top with Ceuelemans being a lot higher and Tarasov 4 spots lower. He likes our last 3 more than us.

He had our pool ranked 6th in the league. 2 years ago he had us last. His criteria made Peeke not a prospect

Here are the Top 20 CBJ prospects as voted by us:

1. Kent Johnson (C/LW) Wheelers Rank 1
2. Cole Sillinger (C/LW) 2
3. Kirill Marchenko (LW) 5
4. Yegor Chinakov (RW) 4
5. Dmitri Voronkov (LW/C) 7
6. Liam Foudy (C/LW) 6
7. Daniil Tarasov (G) 11
8. Andrew Peeke (D)
9. Corson Ceulemans (D) 3
10. Stanislav Svozil (D) 8
11. Samuel Knazko (D) 13
12. Tyler Angle (C) 14
13. Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW) 15
14. Josh Dunne (C)
15. Ole-Julian Bjorgvik-Holm (D)
16. Tim Berni (D) 18
17. Nikolai Makarov (D)
18. James Malatesta (C) 12
19. Jacob Christiansen (D) 9
20. Guillaume Richard (D) 10

HM: Mikael Pyyhtia (C); 16 Carson Meyer (RW); Samuel Johannesson (D) 17; Martin Rysavy (LW)

Others receiving add votes: Ben Boyd (LW); Eric Hjorth (D); Marcus Karlberg (LW/RW)

The rest: Robbie Stucker (D); Calvin Thürkauf (C/LW)

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

 

[koteka]

FWIW Here are Scott Wheelers rankings compared to ours. Pretty close at the top with Ceuelemans being a lot higher and Tarasov 4 spots lower. He likes our last 3 more than us.

He had our pool ranked 6th in the league. 2 years ago he had us last. His criteria made Peeke not a prospect

Ceulemans is having a great freshman season at Wisconsin. We voted before his season started. Although I don’t know how much he would move up if we voted right now. The next vote will be interesting when we add two more 1sts and a high 2nd to the mix.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

If Johnson is weak on puck battles in college it’s probably better for him to stay another year. Don’t want him getting bodied in the NHL against men.

 

[Xoggz22]

There were three that Wheeler didn't include that surprised me a little. The most surprising was Nikolai Makarov. CBJ brass really like him and from what little I've seen and read he sounds like a true late bloomer and sleeper. The other two would be Martin Rysavy, who has played reasonable well for Moose Jaw (1st year adjustment) and Ole Bjorgvik-Holm (who played very well as an 18 year old in limited AHL time last year). Not saying they light the world on fire but all three, to me would seem to have some level of upside/intrigue based on their skill sets. Later round picks so easy enough to not include but I'm going to continue to watch Makarov. I think he could be on a similar path as Gavrikov, late bloomer that will become an actual NHL contributor based on his attributes (maybe not in Columbus).

Also, Chinakhov and Sillinger likely don't make this list next year so a "drop" would not surprise me even with a good draft again, however, that drop won't be significant given the high picks coming in... With hopefully more to add at the TDL.

 

[Cowumbus]

If Johnson is weak on puck battles in college it’s probably better for him to stay another year. Don’t want him getting bodied in the NHL against men.

To be fair, a lot of the NCAA guys are 22-24 years old and pretty big.

 

[Cowumbus]

 

[KniespassZegras]

If Johnson is weak on puck battles in college it’s probably better for him to stay another year. Don’t want him getting bodied in the NHL against men.

good thing theres more to hockey than puck battles on the wall

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

If Johnson is weak on puck battles in college it’s probably better for him to stay another year. Don’t want him getting bodied in the NHL against men.

I dont know if it's the case, but that could just be how he plays. Laine is the same despite having all the size and strength to win pucks.

But anyways, I'd rather have Johnson in AHL. Assuming we see good development during summer, he'd score like +1,5 ppg next year in NCAA. Im not sure a player gets much out of that kind of dominance.

 

[stevo61]

I dont know if it's the case, but that could just be how he plays. Laine is the same despite having all the size and strength to win pucks.

But anyways, I'd rather have Johnson in AHL. Assuming we see good development during summer, he'd score like +1,5 ppg next year in NCAA. Im not sure a player gets much out of that kind of dominance.

what is going to remain of that Michigan team? Im guessing theyll all leave together but if a few of them leave and it becomes completely his team it could be an interesting challenge for him

 

[Cowumbus]

what is going to remain of that Michigan team? Im guessing theyll all leave together but if a few of them leave and it becomes completely his team it could be an interesting challenge for him

Brisson, Beniers, Power, Bordeleau, and Johnson will all be gone IMO.

 

[majormajor]

If Johnson is weak on puck battles in college it’s probably better for him to stay another year. Don’t want him getting bodied in the NHL against men.

I generally agree, for me though it isn't so much about winning battles as it is about having the strength to avoid them. KJ gets cornered too often and needs more quickness to avoid them. A guy like Marner isn't going to win a lot of board battles but he's quick enough that he doesn't get put in those situations.

 

[majormajor]

There were three that Wheeler didn't include that surprised me a little. The most surprising was Nikolai Makarov. CBJ brass really like him and from what little I've seen and read he sounds like a true late bloomer and sleeper. The other two would be Martin Rysavy, who has played reasonable well for Moose Jaw (1st year adjustment) and Ole Bjorgvik-Holm (who played very well as an 18 year old in limited AHL time last year). Not saying they light the world on fire but all three, to me would seem to have some level of upside/intrigue based on their skill sets. Later round picks so easy enough to not include but I'm going to continue to watch Makarov. I think he could be on a similar path as Gavrikov, late bloomer that will become an actual NHL contributor based on his attributes (maybe not in Columbus).

Did Wheeler mention that he doesn't like those prospects enough to rank them? Maybe he watched Makarov and Holm and decided they have no shot. But he's also just forgotten about players before. Makarov is already playing in the KHL and Holm already showed what he could do in the AHL, so there's a decent floor for both of those guys, they don't seem like the type of prospects to completely leave out.

FWIW Here are Scott Wheelers rankings compared to ours. Pretty close at the top with Ceuelemans being a lot higher and Tarasov 4 spots lower. He likes our last 3 more than us.

He had our pool ranked 6th in the league. 2 years ago he had us last. His criteria made Peeke not a prospect

It's not that often that a scout likes our top prospects more than I do, but Wheeler has KJ #2 leaguewide and Sillinger #9. I'd have them both a bit lower, maybe #10-#15.

I copied in your copy of DSL to add my own comments.

1. Kent Johnson (C/LW) Wheelers Rank 1
2. Cole Sillinger (C/LW) 2
3. Kirill Marchenko (LW) 5 - Makes sense, Marchenko's minutes have been unfair but he's also not taken a step.
4. Yegor Chinakov (RW) 4
5. Dmitri Voronkov (LW/C) 7 - Hasn't been scoring this year, I'm surprised he didn't drop a little further.
6. Liam Foudy (C/LW) 6
7. Daniil Tarasov (G) 11 - Tarasov can get a little messy but his upside should be higher than Wheeler sees.
8. Andrew Peeke (D)
9. Corson Ceulemans (D) 3 - Makes sense based on play. I didn't expect him to be this good this fast.
10. Stanislav Svozil (D) 8 - Could be even higher, especially if you take into account his recent step.
11. Samuel Knazko (D) 13 - Seems fair, he's not getting results to match the tools.
12. Tyler Angle (C) 14
13. Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW) 15 - Wheeler used to love TFW, seems to have lost some interest in him. TFW just needs to stay healthy.
14. Josh Dunne (C)
15. Ole-Julian Bjorgvik-Holm (D)
16. Tim Berni (D) 18
17. Nikolai Makarov (D)
18. James Malatesta (C) 12 - Seems a tiny bit high, Malatesta's production has been flat for years.
19. Jacob Christiansen (D) 9 - What is JC if he's not a PP QB in the NHL? Probably not much.
20. Guillaume Richard (D) 10 - Richard's tools and transition results are super projectable, moreso than Wheeler says.

Edit: If I was going to make a mid-season list with these players it might look something like this:

1 - Johnson
2 - Sillinger
3 - Chinakhov
4 - Ceulemans
5 - Marchenko

6 - Tarasov
7 - Svozil
8 - Foudy
9 - Richard
10 - Voronkov

11 - Christiansen
12 - Holm
13 - TFW
14 - Angle
15 - Knazko

16 - Makarov
17 - Malatesta
18 - Berni

 

[CBJx614]

I generally agree, for me though it isn't so much about winning battles as it is about having the strength to avoid them. KJ gets cornered too often and needs more quickness to avoid them. A guy like Marner isn't going to win a lot of board battles but he's quick enough that he doesn't get put in those situations.

I have a feeling Johnson is gonna need a season or two to get used to his size. He went from being the little kid who had to finesse his way around the ice to a much lankier frame. I'm sure the coaches are gonna try to get him to put as much weight on as possible without losing that agility and speed. And as he fills out he might need to evolve his game a little. Safe to say another season at Michigan wouldn't hurt, but I'd prefer a full season in Cleveland instead where he could play against more experienced players.

 

[majormajor]

I have a feeling Johnson is gonna need a season or two to get used to his size. He went from being the little kid who had to finesse his way around the ice to a much lankier frame. I'm sure the coaches are gonna try to get him to put as much weight on as possible without losing that agility and speed. And as he fills out he might need to evolve his game a little. Safe to say another season at Michigan wouldn't hurt, but I'd prefer a full season in Cleveland instead where he could play against more experienced players.

Totally different player type but we did see this same sort of delayed development with Josh Anderson, who grew several inches just before he was drafted. He took years longer than most to put it all together. Chinakhov also just grew a few inches right before his draft.

 

[tunnelvision]

I generally agree, for me though it isn't so much about winning battles as it is about having the strength to avoid them. KJ gets cornered too often and needs more quickness to avoid them. A guy like Marner isn't going to win a lot of board battles but he's quick enough that he doesn't get put in those situations.

I have a feeling Johnson is gonna need a season or two to get used to his size. He went from being the little kid who had to finesse his way around the ice to a much lankier frame. I'm sure the coaches are gonna try to get him to put as much weight on as possible without losing that agility and speed. And as he fills out he might need to evolve his game a little. Safe to say another season at Michigan wouldn't hurt, but I'd prefer a full season in Cleveland instead where he could play against more experienced players.

Watching a young prospect like Sillinger play at pro level it is easy to come to a quick conclusion that he needs first and foremost to work on his skating, but have I understood correctly that with KJ it is harder to tell what should be the first priority in his training: add more muscle and physical strength or fine tune his skating technique? Or are they equally important at the moment?

 

[majormajor]

Watching a young prospect like Sillinger play at pro level it is easy to come to a quick conclusion that he needs first and foremost to work on his skating, but have I understood correctly that with KJ it is harder to tell what should be the first priority in his training: add more muscle and physical strength or fine tune his skating technique? Or are they equally important at the moment?

Strength will make him quicker. He can improve his technique but I don't see it as a dealbreaker for him. There's a lot of guys in the NHL with unorthodox skating styles.

 

[stevo61]

Totally different player type but we did see this same sort of delayed development with Josh Anderson, who grew several inches just before he was drafted. He took years longer than most to put it all together. Chinakhov also just grew a few inches right before his draft.

Chris Tanev was 5'3" 105lbs in grade 11 and grew almost a foot in the next 2 years. Caused him to go undrafted but eventually turned into one of the best defensive D in the league.

I doubt Johnson ever becomes physically dominate as I think it could be one of those cases where he would try to grow too much in 1 area that it takes away from what made him a special prospect in the first place. Not unlike Winnipeg trying to turn Laine into Ovechkin 2.0 causing his skating to suffer

 

[majormajor]

Chris Tanev was 5'3" 105lbs in grade 11 and grew almost a foot in the next 2 years. Caused him to go undrafted but eventually turned into one of the best defensive D in the league.

I doubt Johnson ever becomes physically dominate as I think it could be one of those cases where he would try to grow too much in 1 area that it takes away from what made him a special prospect in the first place. Not unlike Winnipeg trying to turn Laine into Ovechkin 2.0 causing his skating to suffer

I would guess that KJ will have more of a RNH type progression where he fills out very slowly. Maybe he weighs in at 175 next year and adds a couple pounds a year. It's hard to imagine him ever being thick. Seems naturally ectomorphic.

There's also some other theories about why Laine's athleticism went downhill for a while (I'm sure you've heard the fortnite theory). I don't know what happened. He never got bulky though so I'm not sure if it was weight training that hurt him (if that is what you are suggesting).

 

[stevo61]

I would guess that KJ will have more of a RNH type progression where he fills out very slowly. Maybe he weighs in at 175 next year and adds a couple pounds a year. It's hard to imagine him ever being thick. Seems naturally ectomorphic.

There's also some other theories about why Laine's athleticism went downhill for a while (I'm sure you've heard the fortnite theory). I don't know what happened. He never got bulky though so I'm not sure if it was weight training that hurt him (if that is what you are suggesting).

He went from 205 his rookie year to 221 his sophmore season. Wether that was all good weight or not (likely not and not all muscle like people like to throw around all the time) is another story. I dont know if his back issues have been a lack of training, some genetic issue(was he a fast grower at some stage of his life?) Could be imbalances in strength as hes had the oblique issue now, seems all corrective but I wonder if all those issues add up to him simply being afraid to shoot like he has in the past

 

[KniespassZegras]

Brisson, Beniers, Power, Bordeleau, and Johnson will all be gone IMO.

solid chance they'll have a new coaching staff as well

 

[Cowumbus]

No Johnson

 

[LoneFunyan]

Assuming we see good development during summer, he'd score like +1,5 ppg next year in NCAA. Im not sure a player gets much out of that kind of dominance.

My fingers are crossed that he stays in college and gets a chance to play C the entire year since they are losing so much talent. He can start learning to play that position more specifically while also knowing he's probably better than most of the players around him. Give him the lowest possible learning curve to ease into being a center, then the year after to the AHL as a C.

Of course, we can't force his coach to put him at center. We need Jarmo to show up at his office and give him the "Nice hockey program you got here. Be a real shame if something was to happen to it".