Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread V

[CBJWerenski8]

No matter how rare Reilly's situation is, I won't say anything is absolute anymore...

The second he declined an ELC last year at development camp we should have known he wasn't coming. Werenski doesn't even have the same 'right' as Reilly. He would have to wait all 4 years. He's not going to do that.

 

[Sore Loser]

The second he declined an ELC last year at development camp we should have known he wasn't coming. Werenski doesn't even have the same 'right' as Reilly. He would have to wait all 4 years. He's not going to do that.

Not necessarily ... Matt Calvert turned down an ELC from the Blue Jackets, went back and played for a Memorial Cup, and then signed the next summer.

It's more about getting a feel for what the player is thinking. In the case of Reilly, the real tipper wouldn't have come until this spring, at which point it was too late. He could have just said he wanted to go back to U of M for one more year, which is probably what happened.

 

[CBJx614]

I think one factor which will help sway Werenski is the fact that this is a young, cup contending team if everyone is healthy next season. He's gotta be hungry to be able to step in and make an impact immediately. Something that someone like Reilly might not be able to do.

I'm really excited to see how Werenski looks out there this season. From what it sounds like if his competition in college is anywhere near the level his competition at the WJC he shouldn't have a problem breezing through this season.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Not necessarily ... Matt Calvert turned down an ELC from the Blue Jackets, went back and played for a Memorial Cup, and then signed the next summer.

It's more about getting a feel for what the player is thinking. In the case of Reilly, the real tipper wouldn't have come until this spring, at which point it was too late. He could have just said he wanted to go back to U of M for one more year, which is probably what happened.

Matt Calvert also promised the Jackets he would sign. Reilly gave no such commitment. Big difference

 

[Sore Loser]

Matt Calvert also promised the Jackets he would sign. Reilly gave no such commitment. Big difference

You're right, but did he give any sign that he would be signing elsewhere at that point? And, what else would you have the Jackets do in that situation? Perhaps they could have discussed with him and found out where he was wanting to sign, and then parlay that into a late round draft pick. But if that were the case, I think a lot of people would have been just as frustrated as they are now ... in the end we found out that there was really only one place he would sign, so it's not like the Jackets would have had great leverage.

I think it's unfair to say that he was mishandled ... I think Jarmo and his staff did all they could to try to coax him here and, ultimately, the kid wanted to play in Minnesota. I don't think getting a sixth or seventh round pick would have made a difference in anyone's mind.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

You're right, but did he give any sign that he would be signing elsewhere at that point? And, what else would you have the Jackets do in that situation? Perhaps they could have discussed with him and found out where he was wanting to sign, and then parlay that into a late round draft pick. But if that were the case, I think a lot of people would have been just as frustrated as they are now ... in the end we found out that there was really only one place he would sign, so it's not like the Jackets would have had great leverage.

I think it's unfair to say that he was mishandled ... I think Jarmo and his staff did all they could to try to coax him here and, ultimately, the kid wanted to play in Minnesota. I don't think getting a sixth or seventh round pick would have made a difference in anyone's mind.

Well Reilly rejected multiple ELC's over a course of a few months (Before his sophomore season, after his sophomore season, and again before and after his junior season) was a big enough of a sign he wasn't going to come. Especially since they knew this advantage was available to him and knowing HE knew it was available to him. The interviews he gave with the Dispatch and again on FSNO are more red flags that he had no intention on signing in Columbus. I can only imagine how obvious it was in meetings with him and his agent.

Not trying to say he was mishandled. They did all they can do. There's only so many player workouts, playoff games, and guaranteed ice time you can offer to a young UFA to be. But there comes a time where you just have to accept the fact that he's not coming. I'm just saying I think they should have traded him directly after he rejected the ELC before this past season. Would they have got much? Probably not, but its better than nothing. I would handle all college players who have this same advantage and reject ELC's before their final season of rights ownership the same way. The only exceptions would be in the case of Calvert where if you had a reason to go back and promised to sign. But this is just me.

 

[Sore Loser]

Well Reilly rejected multiple ELC's over a course of a few months (Before his sophomore season, after his sophomore season, and again before and after his junior season) was a big enough of a sign he wasn't going to come. Especially since they knew this advantage was available to him and knowing HE knew it was available to him. The interviews he gave with the Dispatch and again on FSNO are more red flags that he had no intention on signing in Columbus. I can only imagine how obvious it was in meetings with him and his agent.

Not trying to say he was mishandled. They did all they can do. There's only so many player workouts, playoff games, and guaranteed ice time you can offer to a young UFA to be. But there comes a time where you just have to accept the fact that he's not coming. I'm just saying I think they should have traded him directly after he rejected the ELC before this past season. Would they have got much? Probably not, but its better than nothing. I would handle all college players who have this same advantage and reject ELC's before their final season of rights ownership the same way. The only exceptions would be in the case of Calvert where if you had a reason to go back and promised to sign. But this is just me.

The problem with the NCAA is that, you can't sign a contract and go back to play. So anytime you have a player in the NCAA, there's always that idea that they won't sign with you until they are ready to turn pro ... it's not like in juniors where guys can go back and finish out their 19 year old seasons.

So kids can always hide behind the "I want to finish out my degree" if they are playing in the NCAA ... and some of them will be telling the truth. Others will do what Reilly did ... it's a crapshoot in the middle rounds. But for a top-10 guy to do that, on a team like the Jackets, is extremely rare. I think everyone is buying too much into it ... my guess is that Werenski signs with the CBJ next summer.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The problem with the NCAA is that, you can't sign a contract and go back to play. So anytime you have a player in the NCAA, there's always that idea that they won't sign with you until they are ready to turn pro ... it's not like in juniors where guys can go back and finish out their 19 year old seasons.

So kids can always hide behind the "I want to finish out my degree" if they are playing in the NCAA ... and some of them will be telling the truth. Others will do what Reilly did ... it's a crapshoot in the middle rounds. But for a top-10 guy to do that, on a team like the Jackets, is extremely rare. I think everyone is buying too much into it ... my guess is that Werenski signs with the CBJ next summer.

If they want to finish their degree then thats fine, but they better give me a verbal promise that you're going to sign after your senior season or I would trade him. I don't remember the kids name for Nashville that went back to Harvard (i think), if I was Poile I'd trade him right now as he rejected an ELC to play in the playoffs and no promise to sign after this season.

 

[Fro]

prospect games that matter start today... Nutivaara's team plays their champions league game at 1:30

 

[Fro]

Pronman's top 10

 

[major major]

Pronman's top 10

Pronman typically skews towards puckhandlers and playmakers over size, so it's no surprise he's high on Tynan and not so high on Carlsson. I wouldn't have Tynan over Carlsson but Pronman is right often enough that I'll respect his view.

It's a bit surprising that he has Josh Anderson so high. Anderson doesn't have the puck skills that Pronman skews towards.

 

[Fro]

valid point...Yeah, I wouldn't put Tynan in my top 10...maybe 15...

 

[Sore Loser]

Pronman typically skews towards puckhandlers and playmakers over size, so it's no surprise he's high on Tynan and not so high on Carlsson. I wouldn't have Tynan over Carlsson but Pronman is right often enough that I'll respect his view.

It's a bit surprising that he has Josh Anderson so high. Anderson doesn't have the puck skills that Pronman skews towards.

Go back and look at some of Pronman's draft rankings over the years ... then we'll see about this comment

 

[thebus2288*]

1-Bjorkstrand 2-Werenski 3-Rychel 4-Milano 5-Tynan
6-Madaisky 7-Heatherington 8-Bittner 9-Forsberg 10-Paliotta
11-Karlsson 12-Anderson 13-Carlsson 14-Korpisalo 15-Nutivaara
16-Zaar 17-Moutrey 18-Stenlund 19-Siebenaler 20-Collins

Here's my list I put in the other thread. There's more than a few guys on here that I really know nothing about when it comes to actually personally watching them play...But....

I think Bjorkstrand is the real deal. It's probably not best for him physically to play in the NHL quite yet but its not as if the AHL will be much easier on him. I could see him start out in Columbus or be the 1st call up when a "scorer" comes out of the lineup. I think Rychel will and should be at the very least the 2nd choice to get called up over Milano. I obviously at this point think Tynan is really underrated, but really, I don't know what more the guy could have done at this point in his career. He's a couple years older, but his numbers compared to Anderson and Karlsson (or any "prospect" really) I think pretty much sum it up. I don't know how you could rank those guys ahead of him. He wasn't just some young guy putting up a bunch of "cheap" points, he was playing a legit #1 center role for most of the year. Madaisky is another guy I think is being underrated a bit, however I cant claim to know really anything at all about Carlsson or Paliotta. I'm curious, what is people's opinion on the differences of Carlsson and Heatherington? I don't know much or haven't seen much of Zaar or Collins, and even less of Nutivaara, Stenlund and Siebenaler.

 

[thebus2288*]

I wouldn't have Tynan over Carlsson

valid point...Yeah, I wouldn't put Tynan in my top 10...maybe 15...

Why exactly? Please enlighten me.

 

[Fro]

Why exactly? Please enlighten me.

I believe there are prospects with a higher upside for the NHL than he

 

[EspenK]

Why exactly? Please enlighten me.

Every time I try to justify putting him higher in the rankings he just keeps coming up short.

 

[major major]

Go back and look at some of Pronman's draft rankings over the years ... then we'll see about this comment

I let this person do some research for me:

I went back and looked at Pronman's lists from 4, 5 years ago. Some hits and misses. Most notably, he ranked Kabanov at #4 in 2010 . But at the same time, he ranked Dylan McIlrath #68, which even HFBoarders, who generally disliked him as a prospect thought was far too long (most posters had him around a late 1st). He also thought Erik Gudbranson was overrated and had him around #11, which looks pretty good. Most surprising was Jack Campbell (drafted 10th overall in 2010) I believe he rated in the 3rd or 4th round. He also picked Kucherov fairly high the next year and thought Duncan Siemens was overrated (whilst many HFBoarders gave him tons of heat for this) @ #11. He also had Justin Faulk (drafted 38th overall) higher than conventional rankings, which looks excellent. Nyquist was a favourite prospect of his for a long time. He picked out Ekholm as a real sleeper when most people didn't know anything about him. He thought Danny Kristo (whom Habs fans overrated the hell out of after his WJC showing particularly) was limited and a perimeter player. What I like about him particularly is how lowly he ranks goalie prospects. If you look the history of drafting, there have been a disproportionate amount of 1st round busts from goalies. On the other hand, many of the best goaltenders were mid-late picks or even undrafted signings.

So he seems to have his hits and misses. Definitely made some unorthodox picks that look fairly decent. Just still can't believe Joe Hicketts is ranked #53 ahead of guys like Sanheim. I'll eat a donkey if Hicketts becomes more than a bottom-pairing D-man (I'm wagering he won't even make the NHL as a regular at this point).

 

[major major]

Why exactly? Please enlighten me.

You seem to be really impressed by 40 some points in the AHL, which translates to fourth line duty in the NHL. When it comes to prospects I don't care if someone is a good fourth liner and a good PKer. We can get those guys in UFA for cheap if we have to. I want impact players.

The biggest reason I value Carlsson over Tynan? Tynan is 5 (5!) years older than Carlsson. That's a whole lot of development time. Carlsson could be a top 4 stud or a total dud, who knows. But Tynan is already through the prime development years. Most likely, what you see is what you get.

 

[Sore Loser]

You seem to be really impressed by 40 some points in the AHL, which translates to fourth line duty in the NHL. When it comes to prospects I don't care if someone is a good fourth liner and a good PKer. We can get those guys in UFA for cheap if we have to. I want impact players.

The biggest reason I value Carlsson over Tynan? Tynan is 5 (5!) years older than Carlsson. That's a whole lot of development time. Carlsson could be a top 4 stud or a total dud, who knows. But Tynan is already through the prime development years. Most likely, what you see is what you get.

Hammer, meet nail ...

A big part of the reason Connor McDavid will be a better player than Oliver Bjorkstrand. While their stats were similar over the course of the season, McDavid was a full two years younger than Bjorkstrand, and didn't have the same supporting cast that Bjorkstrand did ...

 

[thebus2288*]

I believe there are prospects with a higher upside for the NHL than he

Fair I guess. However I can (and am) argue the same thing in favor of Tynan after the "big 3" on offense. I think people are really underrating his offensive skill tbh.

Every time I try to justify putting him higher in the rankings he just keeps coming up short.

Idk if this is a short joke or not but where most people want to rank him isn't really "justified" in my eyes. I think his size must be a big thing people are holding against him.

You seem to be really impressed by 40 some points in the AHL, which translates to fourth line duty in the NHL. When it comes to prospects I don't care if someone is a good fourth liner and a good PKer. We can get those guys in UFA for cheap if we have to. I want impact players.

The biggest reason I value Carlsson over Tynan? Tynan is 5 (5!) years older than Carlsson. That's a whole lot of development time. Carlsson could be a top 4 stud or a total dud, who knows. But Tynan is already through the prime development years. Most likely, what you see is what you get.

I didn't know there was a NHL-AHL point translator. You take nothing into account by saying that. He wasn't just some cherry picking winger out trying to put up points getting 6 shots on the PP every night. I think this is also part 'Dubinsky Syndrome' where people are using all the other good things he does against him when it comes to his offensive game. Tynan is very skilled offensively. I get the age thing, but like you say it could go either way. Look what we thought about Dansk right after he was drafted. What did people think of Atkinson and Calvert? And like you say he is what he is, and that's not a dud. But really how can you say that a rookie pro is done developing or growing? That's just plain wrong. Quit holding the amount of time he played in college against him.

Hammer, meet nail ...

A big part of the reason Connor McDavid will be a better player than Oliver Bjorkstrand. While their stats were similar over the course of the season, McDavid was a full two years younger than Bjorkstrand, and didn't have the same supporting cast that Bjorkstrand did ...

Age is age.

The better player is the better player.



I like them as players but how can people rank Anderson and Karlsson above Tynan? Carlsson, Heatherington, etc. are almost too hard to even compare.

 

[Jackets16]

Not even close to true. In developing players, your age matters a ton. The more you have had to develop physically and mentally, not to mention just playing the game, more means a lot.

 

[Fro]

CBJ Prospects ‏@CBJProspects 18h18 hours ago
Got my Hockey News season preview here's their top 10 #CBJ prospects...

CBJ Prospects ‏@CBJProspects 18h18 hours ago View translation
Werenski Milano Carlsson Rychel Bjorkstrand Bittner Karlsson Forsberg Anderson Korpisalo #CBJ


i'm sorta stunned about Carlsson being 3rd by them...

 

[Fro]

DAT FLEX!!!!! wow

 

[Hello Johnny]

CBJ Prospects ‏@CBJProspects 18h18 hours ago
Got my Hockey News season preview here's their top 10 #CBJ prospects...

CBJ Prospects ‏@CBJProspects 18h18 hours ago View translation
Werenski Milano Carlsson Rychel Bjorkstrand Bittner Karlsson Forsberg Anderson Korpisalo #CBJ


i'm sorta stunned about Carlsson being 3rd by them...

What's really stunning is having Heatherington outside the top 10. That list is super wonky. Bjork is, at worst, our 3rd best prospect.