Value of: Caufield vs 2OA

[Nico Hischier]

You might choke on that sooner than later

Did you really say that a 5’9 140 pound defenseman who was drafted in second round would go 1oa in a 2022 redraft???

I’ve said that habs and leaf’s fans overrate their players more than other fan bases but geez that is insanity

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Maybe not 2OV for Caufield, but I think any team would need to consider it for any pick past Fant/Carl/Mich. Cauf has a good chance to have multiple 50 goal seasons...and all the guys past the aforementioned have warts just like any other draft.

A Zegra/Caufield reunion would be something special though.

A good chance at MULTIPLE 50 goal season? lol

Since 2005, here are the players with multiple 50 goal seasons:
Ovechkin (9)
Draisaitl (3)
Stamkos (2)
Kovalchuk (2)
Heatley (2)

It would be an outrageous success if Caufield surpasses 50 goals a single time in career. Buddy doesn't have anywhere close to a good chance to have multiple.

 

[Forge]

Not a knock on Caufield at all, but I remember last year when this was brought up by a Habs fan in the devils forum (I think it was a montreal fan), the devils fan base was kind of split on making that deal. Last year that draft was super weak and the #2 OA could have realistically been one of 5 people. So that was an inferior prospect at #2, an extra cheap year on CC and Devils fans were still somewhat lukewarm on the idea.

I can't imagine that Anaheim fans would be into this at all.

 

[Breakers]

Ohh here we go with "Pace calculations" for caufield

So we’re just “pacing” 26 into 50 now?

 

[DaPhazz]

Did you really say that a 5’9 140 pound defenseman who was drafted in second round would go 1oa in a 2022 redraft???

I’ve said that habs and leaf’s fans overrate their players more than other fan bases but geez that is insanity

Of all the arguments you could've had, this one?

He's 5'10” - 161lbs btw, grew up quite a bit this year, you can easily find that information.

It's not only the habs's fan who are starting to see Lane Hutson becoming something special, it's the knowledgeable ones.

 

[nhlfan9191]

i consider caufield more overrated than fantilli. habs fans value him like a 50 goal scorer and fantilli like a potential franchise center. but caufield is also just a potential 50 goal scorer so far and he has the same or (i would say) more risk, that he doesn't reach his ceiling.

He had pretty much 50 goals over an 82 game stretch from when Martin St. Louis was hired until he got hurt this year. And that was at 21 years old. Of course fans are valuing a young pure goalscorer that way. Caufield isn’t some throw in to move up 3 spots in a draft where the talent drop off isn’t insane from 2-5. That whole notion is braindead.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Montreal fans make me miss dealing with leaf fans on the trade forum

 

[sansabri]

Montreal fans make me miss dealing with leaf fans on the trade forum

give it some time til the Leafs have a new gm

 

[Forge]

Of all the arguments you could've had, this one?

He's 5'10” - 161lbs btw, grew up quite a bit this year, you can easily find that information.

It's not only the habs's fan who are starting to see Lane Hutson becoming something special, it's the knowledgeable ones.

When you're that small, I have to see it play out in the NHL before I fully buy in. I'm a devils fan and I'm not all in on Seamus Casey like some are for that very reason. I just don't really know how to calculate that working at the next level or not. That kind of outlier always makes me nervous.

I do tend to feel good about historic seasons like that translating of course. But the size will scare me until it doesn't

 

[Mersss]

And you dont move the 2nd overall …. For lesser assets when your a rebuilding team.


We’re not asking to move him
Or asking what his value is…. We want the choice between fantilli/carlsson…. And there isn’t really any realistic combination of assets montreal could offer me to make me decide to move down

See THAT I can get behind. Your team wants the luxury if the choice, and that's a valid reasoning.

But the other poster has to stop with the BS that a 21yo sniper who was on pace for 50goals and 70ish points isn't worth 3 spots.

 

[Mersss]

When you're that small, I have to see it play out in the NHL before I fully buy in. I'm a devils fan and I'm not all in on Seamus Casey like some are for that very reason. I just don't really know how to calculate that working at the next level or not. That kind of outlier always makes me nervous.

I do tend to feel good about historic seasons like that translating of course. But the size will scare me until it doesn't

Casey wasn't even close to Hutson level.

Guy literally pulled out the best D+1 season offensively of ANY dman in the NCAA playing on an average squad, outproducing guys like Luke Hughes and Cale Makar on their D+1 season. Even if his defensive side of the game remains average, Habs are going to he more than happy having a 5'10 170pds 80pts PP1 QB type D as they already have bigger and meaner guys on their blue line like Guhlez Xhekaj, Mailloux, Barron and Savard.

Wanna know who else was under 6' and sub 180pds when they came into the NHL? Erik Karlsson

 

[Forge]

Casey wasn't even close to Hutson level.

Not the point

Guy literally pulled out the best D+1 season offensively of ANY dman in the NCAA playing on an average squad, outproducing guys like Luke Hughes and Cale Makar on their D+1 season. Even if his defensive side of the game remains average, Habs are going to he more than happy having a 5'10 170pds 80pts PP1 QB type D as they already have bigger and meaner guys on their blue line like Guhlez Xhekaj, Mailloux, Barron and Savard.

Acknowledged in my post. He's still very small. When it works in the NHL, I'll buy in.

Wanna know who else was under 6' and sub 180pds when they came into the NHL? Erik Karlsson

Oh, so are we just naming random people who are small when they came into the league? Bet I could name some very small guys who couldn't hack it.

Nobody should be saying it's a hard no on him succeeding, but the truth is that if he doesn't get much bigger than that, it's an outlier, not the rule, and that's okay to acknowledge as well.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Lol

 

[Lord Flashheart]

Would Caufield + a non 5th overall pick be enough for Anaheim to move the 2OA this draft? Assumption is there is an 8x8 sign & trade in place.

FWIW I would have a hard time trading Caufield from Montreal's perspective only because he's the first guy who looks like he could pot 50 in multiple decades, but I also think Fantilli will be a better player long term.

BONUS: If you think this is a trade that could get done - do you think Chicago would ever entertain Bedard for 2+5? Why/why not?


(I don't endorse these trades, just curious what other people think)

Just asking for a friend?

 

[Mersss]

Not the point



Acknowledged in my post. He's still very small. When it works in the NHL, I'll buy in.



Oh, so are we just naming random people who are small when they came into the league? Bet I could name some very small guys who couldn't hack it

And how many if those small guys broke scoring records in their D+1 year?

 

[Forge]

And how many if those small guys broke scoring records in their D+1 year?

Already acknowledged, so you can beat that drum all you want, but I'm not hiding from that. It was said in my very first post.

His size is an outlier. Doesn't mean he can't succeed or won't, but it's also okay to be nervous about it.

 

[Miller Time]

Would Caufield + a non 5th overall pick be enough for Anaheim to move the 2OA this draft? Assumption is there is an 8x8 sign & trade in place.

FWIW I would have a hard time trading Caufield from Montreal's perspective only because he's the first guy who looks like he could pot 50 in multiple decades, but I also think Fantilli will be a better player long term.

BONUS: If you think this is a trade that could get done - do you think Chicago would ever entertain Bedard for 2+5? Why/why not?


(I don't endorse these trades, just curious what other people think)

I don't think Montreal moves Caufield 1:1 for the 2OA. It's not that the value isn't there, it's that the certainty of Caufield being an elite goal scorer AND a player that can thrive in a market like Montreal (and loves playing there) is too high to risk rolling the dice on a very good prospect that still has a way to go before cementing that they will be a regular NHL top-line player, let alone an elite one.

Suzuki and Dach in place at C further reduces the need/incentive of targetting a C... if 2nd overall was a lock top-pairing Dman prospect, i think the decision would be tougher.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I don't think Montreal moves Caufield 1:1 for the 2OA. It's not that the value isn't there, it's that the certainty of Caufield being an elite goal scorer AND a player that can thrive in a market like Montreal (and loves playing there) is too high to risk rolling the dice on a very good prospect that still has a way to go before cementing that they will be a regular NHL top-line player, let alone an elite one.

Suzuki and Dach in place at C further reduces the need/incentive of targetting a C... if 2nd overall was a lock top-pairing Dman prospect, i think the decision would be tougher.

Montreal moves Caufield for 2OA. Period.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I don't think Montreal moves Caufield 1:1 for the 2OA. It's not that the value isn't there, it's that the certainty of Caufield being an elite goal scorer AND a player that can thrive in a market like Montreal (and loves playing there) is too high to risk rolling the dice on a very good prospect that still has a way to go before cementing that they will be a regular NHL top-line player, let alone an elite one.

Suzuki and Dach in place at C further reduces the need/incentive of targetting a C... if 2nd overall was a lock top-pairing Dman prospect, i think the decision would be tougher.

I disagree. Montreal would do that trade without hesitation. Suzuki and Dach in no way impact the need for an elite star Center.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Caufield isn't really better than debrincat who was worth a mid first. So no way that gets you fantilli who is better than most 2nd overalls.

 

[Mersss]

Already acknowledged, so you can beat that drum all you want, but I'm not hiding from that. It was said in my very first post.

His size is an outlier. Doesn't mean he can't succeed or won't, but it's also okay to be nervous about it.

His size won't have any impact when the 5 other dman on our d are 6'0 and up, 200+ (Guhle-Xhekaj-Savard-Barron-Mailloux-Harris)

I'm not going to debate any longer as it is pointless, but all the facts then to lead that Hutson is the real deal. Hell he was better than other d-man on the USA squads that have been playing pro for a while now (like Samberg for example). And he played against NHLer there.

 

[Xirik]

I think the Ducks and the Senators are one of the few teams that try to only draft players over 6'0 feet unless the player is a can't miss player.

Caufield doesn't fit their teams style and the Ducks trading a pick that will land them a potential 6'3 franchise center that fits their style won't happen.

I'd say the Ducks GM would be more interest in Slafkovsky then Caufield.

Don't know what such a trade would look like though.

(the size thing was probably more of a Bob Murray thing so perhaps the new GM would be more willing to change their playbook)

 

[Mersss]

Caufield isn't really better than debrincat who was worth a mid first. So no way that gets you fantilli who is better than most 2nd overalls.

Caufield has 6 years of RFA status left. Debrincat had 2.

Team control is worth something.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

When you're that small, I have to see it play out in the NHL before I fully buy in. I'm a devils fan and I'm not all in on Seamus Casey like some are for that very reason. I just don't really know how to calculate that working at the next level or not. That kind of outlier always makes me nervous.

I do tend to feel good about historic seasons like that translating of course. But the size will scare me until it doesn't

I mean even ducks fans don’t pump up zellweger…. Only 5 months between the players.

Both considered undersized dmen.

Zellweger coming off back to back WHL dmen of the year award , 2 world junior gold medals where he was the go to dmen for Canada, a 1st team all star at world juniors.

But you’ll have Canadian fans claim Hutson goes #1 in a redraft…. And zellweger wouldn’t move up in a redraft

I think the Ducks and the Senators are one of the few teams that try to only draft players over 6'0 feet unless the player is a can't miss player.

Caufield doesn't fit their teams style and the Ducks trading a pick that will land them a potential 6'3 franchise center that fits their style won't happen.

I'd say the Ducks GM would be more interest in Slafkovsky then Caufield.

Don't know what such a trade would look like though.

(the size thing was probably more of a Bob Murray thing so perhaps the new GM would be more willing to change their playbook)

PV seems to prefer bigger players too (our draft last year was all 6’ above players if I remember correctly.

Trade wise idk…. Don’t think slaf does much for us in moving the 2nd..

If they want to do slaf for zellweger id consider

 

[HawksDub89]

Montreal fans make me miss dealing with leaf fans on the trade forum

Ditto