Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

[K8fool]

I usually lean towards the cautious pessimism side of the spectrum, but it just seems like he's primed to breakout. I'd almost be more surprised if he didn't hit that

The past 2 seasons the eye test and stats have not aligned, injury probably contributing. I think he surprises many

I agree.. he will be cautious early after snakebitten twice last year.. here's rundown

2022 Player Report Card: Casey Mittelstadt

Mittelstadt showed flashes of promise at times, but was plagued with injuries throughout the year.

www.diebytheblade.com

Casey settles in gets confident and has the year he should've.. point for point w Thompson.. One line a game will be severely mismatched speed and talent wise . Casey benefits and all players totals rise.

This is really because KA and Don G have found a great defensive unit starts to dominate and the lessons and physical play of last year exposes two or three wonderful truths.(most likely) why?

Why are posters everywhere ridiculous ..

Well

Thompson 24 ...... 223 gp
Rasmus Dahlin 22 ! ...... 277 gp

Casey mittelstadt. 23 ! ...... 195 gp


Dylan Cozens. 21 ! ..... 120 gp

Rasmus Asplund 24 ..... 137 gp
Jokiharhu. 22 ..... 213 gp
Oloffson. 26 late. ..... 188 gp

Owen power 19 ! ..... 8 gp
Samuelson. 22 ! ..... 54 gp
Bryson 24 ..... 111 gp

Krebs 21 ...... 61 gp

Quinn, Peterka, Kozak .Bloom and last two draft classes under 21 , less than 10 gp

Ukka 23 13 starts.

Levi and Portillo under 21


tuch 27,. 305 gp . lyuabuskin 28 211 gp


Girgensons, only 28 545 gp

Skinner 30. 853 gp
Okposo. 34. 909 gp

ONLY 5 players are topped out potential and are who they are. And they are all very good used properly

Thompson Dahlin Mitts Samuelson and oloffson we will start to see them the next 3 years
Cozens and Joki may also emerge soon w a more consistent lineup

 

[K8fool]

Let's not trade any of the above until at least mid season or we see failure inside of DG dynamic . Look at how young Mitts Cozens and the rest are .

 

[jc17]

I agree.. he will be cautious early after snakebitten twice last year.. here's rundown

2022 Player Report Card: Casey Mittelstadt

Mittelstadt showed flashes of promise at times, but was plagued with injuries throughout the year.

www.diebytheblade.com

Casey settles in gets confident and has the year he should've.. point for point w Thompson.. One line a game will be severely mismatched speed and talent wise . Casey benefits and all players totals rise.

This is really because KA and Don G have found a great defensive unit starts to dominate and the lessons and physical play of last year exposes two or three wonderful truths.(most likely) why?

Why are posters everywhere ridiculous ..

Well

Thompson 24 ...... 223 gp
Rasmus Dahlin 22 ! ...... 277 gp

Casey mittelstadt. 23 ! ...... 195 gp


Dylan Cozens. 21 ! ..... 120 gp

Rasmus Asplund 24 ..... 137 gp
Jokiharhu. 22 ..... 213 gp
Oloffson. 26 late. ..... 188 gp

Owen power 19 ! ..... 8 gp
Samuelson. 22 ! ..... 54 gp
Bryson 24 ..... 111 gp

Krebs 21 ...... 61 gp

Quinn, Peterka, Kozak .Bloom and last two draft classes under 21 , less than 10 gp

Ukka 23 13 starts.

Levi and Portillo under 21


tuch 27,. 305 gp . lyuabuskin 28 211 gp


Girgensons, only 28 545 gp

Skinner 30. 853 gp
Okposo. 34. 909 gp

ONLY 5 players are topped out potential and are who they are. And they are all very good used properly

Thompson Dahlin Mitts Samuelson and oloffson we will start to see them the next 3 years
Cozens and Joki may also emerge soon w a more consistent lineup

Games played is an interesting way to look at it. I wonder if anyone has looked at that, vs age, as an indicator of development

 

[TehDoak]

Games played is an interesting way to look at it. I wonder if anyone has looked at that, vs age, as an indicator of development

I'm curious if anyone has an example of a player on a similar development path that has succeeded at the NHL level.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Even if this is the player he ends up there's still room for him an NHL squad.

 

[barriers]

I'm curious if anyone has an example of a player on a similar development path that has succeeded at the NHL level.

Sean Couturier comes to mind

 

[TehDoak]

Sean Couturier comes to mind

I mean, the production comparison isn't too far off. I think the big issue is Couterier played a much bigger role as a two way shut down center during that time before his offense really took off. Couterier produced about the same as Mittelstadt has, even though Mittelstadt has been getting heavy offensive zone starts and Couterier got heavy D-zone starts.

I guess I'm looking for a center/forward who was supposed to be this highly skilled offensive player whose production was just terrible and suddenly became a regular contributor or even a top line player.

 

[Fjordy]

I mean, the production comparison isn't too far off. I think the big issue is Couterier played a much bigger role as a two way shut down center during that time before his offense really took off. Couterier produced about the same as Mittelstadt has, even though Mittelstadt has been getting heavy offensive zone starts and Couterier got heavy D-zone starts.

I guess I'm looking for a center/forward who was supposed to be this highly skilled offensive player whose production was just terrible and suddenly became a regular contributor or even a top line player.

Zibanejad
Johansen
Hertl
Schenn
Wild Bill

 

[Zman5778]

I guess I'm looking for a center/forward who was supposed to be this highly skilled offensive player whose production was just terrible and suddenly became a regular contributor or even a top line player.

Tage Thompson?

 

[jc17]

I'm curious if anyone has an example of a player on a similar development path that has succeeded at the NHL level.

I guess I'm looking for a center/forward who was supposed to be this highly skilled offensive player whose production was just terrible and suddenly became a regular contributor or even a top line player.

Well, define succeeded. He was pacing for 40 points last year, which isn't terrible production

I mean, the production comparison isn't too far off. I think the big issue is Couterier played a much bigger role as a two way shut down center during that time before his offense really took off. Couterier produced about the same as Mittelstadt has, even though Mittelstadt has been getting heavy offensive zone starts and Couterier got heavy D-zone starts.

And true, the usage context might help explain Couturier, but if we're talking about context, casey's injuries and teammates should be considered.

This past year his production was decent when on ice with his most common linemates, asplund/olofsson.
2020-21 - most minutes with Tage 'just waive him' thompson and asplund.
2019-2020 - played most minutes with Sheary and Vesey and still had 1.75 pts/60 with them

But getting back to the original question, I think the following would qualifiy:
Josh Bailey, Brayden Schenn, maybe fiala, Ladd had 1 good season, Gurianov, Nichushkin (sure better analytics.

I agree, historically its not a great sign. I think I even made a pretty long post about that a year or two ago. But my original point was that even if it goes against some logic/history/stats, I think he's shown signs of life that have maybe been hidden in the box scores.

 

[K8fool]

Games played is an interesting way to look at it. I wonder if anyone has looked at that, vs age, as an indicator of development

Sounds like you are mocking me , I'll put my special Olympics helmet on Before entering... .. I feel so Pejorative Slured just like everyone that seems to overlook how ridiculously young all these guys are and the relative impatience of the fan base is.

My perjoritive is sluured into bad grammar making me look even more mentally handicapped..

 

[K8fool]

I'm curious if anyone has an example of a player on a similar development path that has succeeded at the NHL level.

That's the homework I'm hoping to inspire

 

[K8fool]

I mean, the production comparison isn't too far off. I think the big issue is Couterier played a much bigger role as a two way shut down center during that time before his offense really took off. Couterier produced about the same as Mittelstadt has, even though Mittelstadt has been getting heavy offensive zone starts and Couterier got heavy D-zone starts.

I guess I'm looking for a center/forward who was supposed to be this highly skilled offensive player whose production was just terrible and suddenly became a regular contributor or even a top line player.

That is a key Factor not really addressed anallytica the context and of the minutes played is key to any broad judgement .

This is where Donny g is a genius.. giving a real shit in all situations that most coaches won't do , in order to not go over it again and get closer to any meaningful evaluation. Mitts is the only one not really evaluated outside of practice.. I think same is true looking for a successful line and situation for cozens that masks weaknesss or makes aware so player steps up.. ( like Skinner and many others). Donny G for genius.. like yo man...

 

[jc17]

Sounds like you are mocking me , I'll put my special Olympics helmet on Before entering... .. I feel so Pejorative Slured just like everyone that seems to overlook how ridiculously young all these guys are and the relative impatience of the fan base is.

My perjoritive is sluured into bad grammar making me look even more mentally handicapped..

No we usually look at development success as a measure of points a guy has reached by a certain age. Using games instead age for a guy that has missed time for injuries might make a difference. Maybe it doesn't. I thought it was an interesting concept although wouldn't expect a crazy difference

 

[Jim Bob]

Tage Thompson?

Until we see good production for more than one season, I wouldn't put Thompson in that group yet. Certainly last season was a great, and unforeseen, step forward. But, until he backs it up with another solid season, I wouldn't put him in the same group as other late bloomers.

 

[Jim Bob]

Zibanejad
Johansen
Hertl
Schenn
Wild Bill

If you look at Pts/60, Zibanejad was better from the drop with a Pts/60 of 2.0-2.3 from his age 19 through age 24 seasons.

Mitts has been in the 1.4-2.0 range in his age 20 through 23 seasons.

RyJo made a big jump up to 2.6 Pts/60 in his age 21 season.

Hertl has kind of been all over the place production-wise. He has been a bit Skinner-esque the past four seasons with 3.0, 2.4, 2.7, and 2.3 Pts/60. But, he was 25 when he had that 3.0, so he might be a decent guy to look at for this.

Schenn is a decent one to compare to with his first 2.5+ Pts/60 season at 24.

Karlsson is a bad comparable for two reasons. One, he only has one season of 2.5+ Pts/60. Two, that one season was after a trade to his third NHL team. Unless you want to say Mitts needs a change of scenery...

Mitts has the potential to break through. But, so do a lot of Sabres forwards. The key will be who takes that step forward this season.

 

[Fjordy]

If you look at Pts/60, Zibanejad was better from the drop with a Pts/60 of 2.0-2.3 from his age 19 through age 24 seasons.

Mitts has been in the 1.4-2.0 range in his age 20 through 23 seasons.

RyJo made a big jump up to 2.6 Pts/60 in his age 21 season.

Hertl has kind of been all over the place production-wise. He has been a bit Skinner-esque the past four seasons with 3.0, 2.4, 2.7, and 2.3 Pts/60. But, he was 25 when he had that 3.0, so he might be a decent guy to look at for this.

Schenn is a decent one two with his first 2.5+ Pts/60 season at 24.

Karlsson is a bad comparable for two reasons. One, he only has one season of 2.5+ Pts/60. Two, that one season was after a trade to his third NHL team. Unless you want to say Mitts needs a change of scenery...

Mitts has the potential to break through. But, so do a lot of Sabres forwards. The key will be who takes that step forward this season.

I thought you were comparing the beginning of a career, all these centers did not immediately begin to produce a lot.

 

[elchud]

In the last two and a half seasons, we have had one line that has been able to score / accumulate points.

The hope is that this season with more offensive talent, points will go up for everybody. Unfortunately Peterka/Quinn/Krebs are still young so who knows.

 

[Jim Bob]

I thought you were comparing the beginning of a career, all these centers did not immediately begin to produce a lot.

I am comparing their early paths. Some had jumps in production that Mitts has not had yet at the same age/NHL games played as Mitts has already passed through.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

I'm curious if anyone has an example of a player on a similar development path that has succeeded at the NHL level.

Sam Bennett
Teuvo Teravainen
Andrew Copp
Ivan Barbashev
JT Miller

A few I can think of. Though I think there are always variables that won't line up. Some guys just get better once they receive more ice time or better linemates, some through a change of scenery.

 

[Dirty Dog]

It’s not an interesting question without context why someone wasn’t producing.

Someone who doesn’t produce from 20-23 for no reason is a lot different than someone who didn’t produce from 20-23 because he was rushed for the nhl, had an awful coach where no one produced, and had an injury…but actually did produce when he had a good coach. That’s the context you need to find a comp to (oh look, hi tage)

 

[Matt Ress]

It’s not an interesting question without context why someone wasn’t producing.

Someone who doesn’t produce from 20-23 for no reason is a lot different than someone who didn’t produce from 20-23 because he was rushed for the nhl, had an awful coach where no one produced, and had an injury…but actually did produce when he had a good coach. That’s the context you need to find a comp to (oh look, hi tage)

It's a loaded question hopefully not to prove anything.
Any late bloomers can be picked apart as not real comps - not the same stats, age, position, usage, talents, better/worse team...
Then if you can't find the perfect comp, which you won't, the narrative that nobody has ever been a late bloomer centerman top line skilled with 2.03 p/60... gets repeated. I'm hoping that's not the point.

 

[sabremike]

It’s not an interesting question without context why someone wasn’t producing.

Someone who doesn’t produce from 20-23 for no reason is a lot different than someone who didn’t produce from 20-23 because he was rushed for the nhl, had an awful coach where no one produced, and had an injury…but actually did produce when he had a good coach. That’s the context you need to find a comp to (oh look, hi tage)

" Hi Dog!"

 

[cybresabre]

" Hi Dog!"

Is that the first picture you've posted that didn't feature either a giraffe or a thumbs up?
Replying to be a part of sabremike history!

 

[Butt Ox]

Is that the first picture you've posted that didn't feature either a giraffe or a thumbs up?
Replying to be a part of sabremike history!

I kept looking for a giraffe as well. Baffled, frankly.