Back to the Peters comment thing, look at our shot heat map under Rod. You see increased shots from the LD and RD closer to the blue line, and you see a huge concentration of shots in the slot, right in front of the net. Without looking at the stats, I'd bet we take more shots in the slot than any other team in the league. Under Rod's system we have both more quantity and more quality chances than the other team, by a larger margin than perhaps all the other 31 teams.
I think this is where the analytical approach creates an intersection of personnel and coaching. The Borg have done a frankly incredible job of finding defensemen who can thread a shot through traffic, and Rod’s system has them in position to take those shots regularly.
It's one benefit of spending so much time ringing the puck around the walls in the offensive zone; as long as we can get a stick on it and keep it moving back and forth, eventually we win a footrace and are in a position to immediately threaten the low slot and take those high-danger shots. That exerts a gravitational pull on the defense, which opens up space for the D, and here comes a shot by Hamilton or Gardiner or Deangelo or Burns or Skeji or Gostisbehere. Even if the goalie makes the save, the rebound is going to be problematic for a defense that's getting pulled high-low. Against a weaker team, we can really get opponents chasing their tails trying to close gaps faster than we can ring pucks around the boards.
As long as we continue to find forwards who win puck battles and D with dangerous shots, that system is sustainable. It's a brilliant marriage of the different aspects of Hockey Ops.
IMO it's also why our power play struggles so much. When we enter the zone and set up, the penalty killers stop chasing. They're willing to surrender possession along the walls, and focus on denying passing lanes and shooting lanes. Not only do the chances in the slot dry up, and not only do the point shots get blocked, but the frantic perimeter activity slows to a crawl.
We've all watched it a thousand times -- the winger takes the puck about halfway down the wall, and diddles around with it to try and draw out the defender. Failing that, he passes up to the point where the D can't find a lane, so he swings to the other D, who passes it back down the halfwall. Over to the bumper in the middle, who has a guy right on his ass immediately, so he nudges it back to the D. Finally a shot that ends up 2 feet wide because there's no lane down the middle, and the other team wings it around the boards and out. The difference-maker is the lack of defensive pursuit.
In the long run, that's what might be our comeuppance in the end. Florida is now playing a lot like we do, and so is Jersey. GMs and coaches are seeing this, and more copycats will be coming soon. If half the teams in the league are playing this way, it makes sense for teams to move toward a more passive, PK-like defensive posture as a default. That would work against us, and favor teams who can exploit 1-on-1 perimeter matchups (which we don't have the horses for).
(@eddielack) <a href="">May 15, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="
