Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[Stickpucker]

Ok I'm curious. Why is he going south to Carolina? Jake? Lol.

It'd either be for Colorado or a Canadian team

What Canadian team is going to win the cup?

The cup is the only reason Sid would leave.

Carolina is a heavy betting favorite. They were the money puck favorite before the Guentzel trade and they have cap space, Crosbys comrades, and a great culture and nice weather.

 

[Ryder71]

Given the stubborn hard stance by Pens fans throughout this process - this is a terrible return. Targeting Bunting?? Really?

Don’t care how you try and justify it, Pens were expecting way more than that.

What does Bunting matter honestly? To me that's a glorified cap dump. Koivunen is the centerpiece. He's most likely the determing factor as to if this is good or bad.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Had an evening to process this deal and I hate it even more for the Pens than I did last night.

Gave up a playoff killer and got table scraps. If you can't manage a great prospect or unconditional 1st for deadline Guentzel, what hope is there for getting value for anyone? Why not just keep your elite winger if you want to compete with the core?

He failed spectacularly on his stated "quality over quality" objective. Worst deal of Dubas' short Pittsburgh tenure.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Given the stubborn hard stance by Pens fans throughout this process - this is a terrible return. Targeting Bunting?? Really?

Don’t care how you try and justify it, Pens were expecting way more than that.

As a Canes fan, I can't disagree more. Just because a few fans had an unrealistic expectation for a return on a rental, doesn't make this terrible.

Rentals almost always get a late 1st round pick and a prospect of Koivunen/Ponomarev's level. In this case, the Pens got a 2nd round pick(which could be a late 1st), 2 prospects of Pono/Koivunen level, a 3rd prospect, and an actual NHL player that is a 20G scorer and is on pace for 18G,50 points this year.

That's a great return IMO.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

This is exactly why trade proposals get more hype before the actual move is made. People love flashier names (Morrow, Blake, etc..) , but don't realize how good some of the non-flashy names are, particularly from teams that don't have as big of a fan base.

Koivunen was likely going to win the Canes 6th best prospect poll over Blake on the Canes board. While we fans have shown we don't know shit about prospects (we once had Slavin as our 10th best prospect way back), it does show that some lesser well known names are viewed as highly by the teams that own their rights.

Nic Roy and Eetu Luostarinen are two great examples in the past. Not flashy names and prospects that weren't hyped much, but were solid players that were NHL ready. Both turned out to be excellent acquisitions by VGN and FLA.

Guentzel isn't just any rental.

When the centrepiece of a deal for a playoff killer and best player available at the deadline is your 6th best prospect, you've officially bent over your trade partner.

Hope Waddell bought Dubas dinner first.

 

[Ryder71]

This is exactly why trade proposals get more hype before the actual move is made. People love flashier names (Morrow, Blake, etc..) , but don't realize how good some of the non-flashy names are, particularly from teams that don't have as big of a fan base.

Koivunen was likely going to win the Canes 6th best prospect poll over Blake on the Canes board. While we fans have shown we don't know shit about prospects (we once had Slavin as our 10th best prospect way back), it does show that some lesser well known names are viewed as highly by the teams that own their rights.

Nic Roy and Eetu Luostarinen are two great examples in the past. Not flashy names and prospects that weren't hyped much, but were solid players that were NHL ready. Both turned out to be excellent acquisitions by VGN and FLA.

To me the defensive prospects are a crap shoot. I'm pretty leery of those rankings and honestly would prefer Blake to Morrow simply because defensemen are more boom or bust. IF Koivunen is as good or better than Yager is in our system then maybe not so bad. Although you get conflicting opinions.

 

[td_ice]

Did you see his body language last night after the Caps game?

The man is a fierce competitor and doesn’t have it in him to sit quietly and take whippings like that.

His good buddies Staal and Guentzel are already on a contender with cap space for him an elite defense and great goaltending.

The man just realized Pitts glory days are done for a few seasons.

Could be. But I can't see Sid ever wanting to leave Pittsburgh. Reportedly (Rossi, FWIW stated Sid has no desire to leave, that he doesn't want to chase a cup, he has 3, and wanting to be a Pen for life.)

Sid reportedly is a big reason the team extending Malkin and Letang. I can't see him being a reason for them to stay, and then bolting, leaving them hanging. Sid isn't cut that way.

But who knows. I just don't see it happening.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Had an evening to process this deal and I hate it even more for the Pens than I did last night.

Gave up a playoff killer and got table scraps. If you can't manage a great prospect or unconditional 1st for deadline Guentzel, what hope is there for getting value for anyone? Why not just keep your elite winger if you want to compete with the core?

He failed spectacularly on his stated "quality over quality" objective. Worst deal of Dubas' short Pittsburgh tenure.

Both Ponomarev and Koivunen are more likely to become regular NHLers than a late 1st in this draft. You could argue that one great prospect would've been better than the three we got, but going for a prospect like them instead of a higher draft pick was defnitely the correct move.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Given the stubborn hard stance by Pens fans throughout this process - this is a terrible return. Targeting Bunting?? Really?

Don’t care how you try and justify it, Pens were expecting way more than that.

I'm going from memory, but Pens fans wanted what?

An NHL ready player
- Check. Bunting is Dubas' boy, that's obvious, and he likely overvalued him. I suspect how Bunting meshed with Marner/Matthews, they are expecting something similar with Crosby.

Real prospects.
- You can argue, we got 3 lesser shots instead of 1 great shot.

1st round draft picks.
- draft picks from contenders are so late, that it looks better on paper than in real life.

So yeah, I can agree that it isn't as good as Pens were expecting, but from the perspective of many of us, at least we got a deal done that has some potential!

 

[Stickpucker]

Could be. But I can't see Sid every wanting to leave Pittsburgh. Reportedly (Rossi, FWIW stated Sid has no desire to leave, that he doesn't want to chase a cup, he has 3, and wanting to be a Pen for life.)

Sid reportedly is a big reason the team extended Malkin and Letang. I can't see him being a reason for them to stay, and then bolting, leaving them hanging. Sid isn't cut that way.

But who knows. I just don't see it happening.

Understood.

Feelings change. If Pitts decided to sell these franchise legends they could end up with an insane amount of young talent.

Crosby
Malkin
Letang
Karlsson
Smith
??

If they targeted nhl ready players they could right the ship much faster than Chicago has.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Guentzel isn't just any rental.

It doesn't matter. He's a rental, coming off of injury that is only available for 20 games and the playoffs. Rentals, no matter how good, don't typically get top prospects, even fi they are as good as Guentzel. It's an unrealistic expectation not back by historical transactions.

If Guentzel had more term, or a re-signing was part of this, then sure, but that's not the case.

When the centrepiece of a deal for a playoff killer and best player available at the deadline is your 6th best prospect, you've officially bent over your trade partner.

Hope Waddell bought Dubas dinner first.

And if the Canes don't win the cup and Guentzel doesn't re-sign, the deal is bad for Carolina. That's how it goes with rentals.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Both Ponomarev and Koivunen are more likely to become regular NHLers than a late 1st in this draft. You could argue that one great prospect would've been better than the three we got, but going for a prospect like them instead of a higher draft pick was defnitely the correct move.

Sure can. That was Dubas' stated objective too.

Too bad he failed miserably. Adding seat fillers is not encouraging.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Both Ponomarev and Koivunen are more likely to become regular NHLers than a late 1st in this draft. You could argue that one great prospect would've been better than the three we got, but going for a prospect like them instead of a higher draft pick was defnitely the correct move.

Last year late 1sts got players like Ritchie, Musty, Cowan. I doubt those teams would trade them for Ponomarev or Koivunen

 

[ZDH]

This deal is ass, Pittsburgh just gave Guentzel away.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

It doesn't matter. He's a rental, coming off of injury that is only available for 20 games and the playoffs. Rentals, no matter how good, don't typically get top prospects, even fi they are as good as Guentzel. It's an unrealistic expectation not back by historical transactions.

If Guentzel had more term, or a re-signing was part of this, then sure, but that's not the case.

And if the Canes don't win the cup and Guentzel doesn't re-sign, the deal is bad for Carolina. That's how it goes with rentals.

The advantage of rentals is you get to try before you buy....

Imagine doing a big FA splash and signing Guentzel to a 7 year 70M deal, only to find out he doesn't fit as well as expected. I mean...look at Johnny Gaudreau, Huberdeau, and Kadri.

Canes have enough spare pieces to do this.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Last year late 1sts got players like Ritchie, Musty, Cowan. I doubt those teams would trade them for Ponomarev or Koivunen

None of Ritchie, Musty, or Cowan are regular NHLers.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It doesn't matter. He's a rental, coming off of injury that is only available for 20 games and the playoffs. Rentals, no matter how good, don't typically get top prospects, even fi they are as good as Guentzel. It's an unrealistic expectation not back by historical transactions.

If Guentzel had more term, or a re-signing was part of this, then sure, but that's not the case.

And if the Canes don't win the cup and Guentzel doesn't re-sign, the deal is bad for Carolina. That's how it goes with rentals.

That's not true.

They got exceptional value based on established deadline prices, and took a great calculated risk for a playoff run that barely puts a dent in their pool.

You make that deal every day if you're Carolina. Guentzel is a playoff difference maker for a team looking to get over the hump.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Last year late 1sts got players like Ritchie, Musty, Cowan. I doubt those teams would trade them for Ponomarev or Koivunen

On that same thought, I think Koivunen is dominating in Finland similarly to how those guys are dominating in their leagues.

I wouldn’t put Ponomarev at a 1st round value, I don’t think he has the upside. But I don’t think it’s a stretch to put Koivunen there with how dominant he has been in the Liiga this year.

 

[La Bamba]

This looks bad for the Pens, especially taking back Bunting

basically just gave up some spare parts

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That's not true.

That is 100% true. Canes were in the ECF last year without Svechnikov. Their goal is the cup, plain and simple. They only went after Guentzel in hopes that he pushes them over the top. Results are all that matter in the end.

They got exceptional value based on established deadline prices, and took a great calculated risk for a playoff run that barely puts a dent in their pool.

You make that deal every day if you're Carolina. Guentzel is a playoff difference maker for a team looking to get over he hump.

Correct, and if you fail to get over the hump, you gave away prospects and picks for nothing. I'm not suggesting Carolina shouldn't have made that move, I'm glad they did. I'm only stating the reality of playoff rentals. It only truly works out for 1 team. Results are what matter.

 

[Ryder71]

Last year late 1sts got players like Ritchie, Musty, Cowan. I doubt those teams would trade them for Ponomarev or Koivunen

Koivunen has a lot more upside than Ponomarv although Pono is closer to NHL ready. Personally, I'd take Koivunen over Cowan.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Sure can. That was Dubas' stated objective too.

Too bad he failed miserably. Adding seat fillers is not encouraging.

So then you would've been okay with, say, a Guentzel for Nadeau swap. One for one?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The advantage of rentals is you get to try before you buy....

Sure, but the asset has to want to sign there and the team has to want to sign a 30 year old (when his next contract starts) to a high dollar, long term deal. Neither are a given.

Imagine doing a big FA splash and signing Guentzel to a 7 year 70M deal, only to find out he doesn't fit as well as expected. I mean...look at Johnny Gaudreau, Huberdeau, and Kadri.

Canes have enough spare pieces to do this.

Sure. again, I'm not suggesting Carolina shouldn't have made the move. I'm stating the realty that if the Canes don't win it all and Guentzel doesn't re-sign, it didn't amount to anything.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm going from memory, but Pens fans wanted what?

An NHL ready player
- Check. Bunting is Dubas' boy, that's obvious, and he likely overvalued him. I suspect how Bunting meshed with Marner/Matthews, they are expecting something similar with Crosby.

Real prospects.
- You can argue, we got 3 lesser shots instead of 1 great shot.

1st round draft picks.
- draft picks from contenders are so late, that it looks better on paper than in real life.

So yeah, I can agree that it isn't as good as Pens were expecting, but from the perspective of many of us, at least we got a deal done that has some potential!

Yeah outside of a few asking for something insane like Lekkerimaki or Perreault, the hope was a young NHLer, a good prospect and a 1st.

Did Guentzel get Hoglander, Raty and a 1st or Jones, Othmann and a 1st? No, but I don’t think he got wildly less than that. Penguins fans wanted like a 1st and 2 2nds or 2 1sts and a 2nd for Guentzel, he ended up being traded for a conditional 1st, 2 2nds and some lesser assets.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That is 100% true. Canes were in the ECF last year without Svechnikov. Their goal is the cup, plain and simple. They only went after Guentzel in hopes that he pushes them over the top. Results are all that matter in the end.

Correct, and if you fail to get over the hump, you gave away prospects and picks for nothing. I'm not suggesting Carolina shouldn't have made that move, I'm glad they did. I'm only stating the reality of playoff rentals. It only truly works out for 1 team. Results are what matter.

Results are what matter, but it can't be a bad deal even with the benefit of hindsight. Any team with Cup aspirations needs to move assets to bolster their team, and the Canes gave up very little for an exceptional playoff asset.

Necessary, calculated risks don't get better than that, win or not.