Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22

[usiel]

2022 NHL Draft's Most Divisive Prospects - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

We will explore the most divisive prospects of the 2022 NHL Draft and try to tell you why they are causing disagreement amongst scouts.

thehockeywriters.com

Nice fine interesting read. Lack of footspeed is the one thing that can be improved after draft age especially if there are some obvious mechanics issues and I'm mostly talking forwards.

The center position is the position where I have some wiggle room on the upside versus will probably make the NHL because prospect wise one cannot have enough centers in the pipeline even if they end up as a 3 or 4th line center. Other forward positions I generally want the prospect to have something that flashes elite in their game.

 

[Marshall]

Nice fine interesting read. Lack of footspeed is the one thing that can be improved after draft age especially if there are some obvious mechanics issues and I'm mostly talking forwards.

I wonder if the Caps believe this is a strength of the Org., or at least that they seem to be less scared of drafting players who aren't great skaters.

In other news, I've determined using extremely scientific methods, the Caps will be drafting Denton Mateychuk.

Final tally of 25 sims, also do not underestimate the lengths I will go to amuse myself while waiting for a server to patch:

D. Mateychuk: 8
J. Snuggerud: 6
P. Mintyukov: 3
2:
L. Ohgren
C. Gauthier
S.Casey
1:
C. Geekie
R. McGroarty

 

[Langway]

We can almost boil down the strategy at 20 to who would you hate most to see walk up and put a Pittsburgh Penguins jersey on at 21? Not to the point of being sentimental or selecting via mancrushes. You don't want to overthink it taking Mr. Hard-to-Play-Against while glossing over upside or more subtle limitations. It's not about short-sightedly spiking a football. From a more detached standpoint which prospect would you least like to face in the coming years? Which could provide the biggest impact with the highest floor? Who has the most leadership capacity, highest IQ and two-way utility? One could almost boil down the ordering process that way as a matter of routine: The Covet Rankings. It can be a useful thought exercise anyway. I don't think it changes my rankings but it's fun putting it in stark terms. You don't want to get overly emotional but it can perhaps help crystalize things in two close rankings or generally inform the sort of competitive spirit and reliability sought after. For this organization I think they really need to start prioritizing those qualities given that they don't have a great track record in otherwise developing them.

I still end up with a realistic short list of Yurov, Miroshnichenko, Kulich & McGroarty. Bichsel becomes ever so slightly more intriguing but the risks and rawness still leads me elsewhere. There's just so much projection involved relative to more advanced options. McGroarty still needs to get a lot more fluid and agile but the finishing is top notch and there's leadership potential at least. I can also see them liking Ohgren given his production and passport, at least believing he's not far from those four. But I'd still order them in that fashion and at least one of the four will be available at 20. I don't know that it need be any more complicated there.

Whether there's a trade up/down opportunity that presents significant value is another question. I don't think moving up presents enough value unless maybe Mintyukov or Mateychuk slide. I'd think about bundling 46 to nab either. Realistically I don't know that there's a vast value gap aside from that. I don't know that I'd move up for Nazar, Geekie or Lambert, particularly if they believe Yurov may still slide to them. Those seem like the most likely players to slide and perhaps go between 13-18 making them feasible targets. But at 46 there's perhaps an opportunity to swing for the fences with a Hutson/Havelid type smaller offensive-defenseman, a number of middle six forward types or maybe the goalie Tyler Brennan. There's just enough depth to where staying put at 20/46 seems prudent in most every scenario.

 

[Langway]

Scott Wheeler's NHL mock draft: Picks for the entire 2022 first round

Scott Wheeler provides his first-round mock draft of the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. Where will Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkowsky and others go?

theathletic.com

Kulich over Yurov is his pick.

 

[Langway]

NHL Draft Confidential: What scouts and executives think about the No. 1 pick and more

Who should go No. 1? How high can Cutter Gauthier go? What Corey Pronman is hearing about the top prospects ahead of the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

 

[pman25]

interesting comments there from the Pronman piece. It sounds like Mateychuk might not be top 15 compared to what NHL teams have along with Yurov likely being available at 20.

 

[YippieKaey]

Im a bit out of the loop, who or what is this 46 people keep referring to?

 

[itsjustsurvival]

Im a bit out of the loop, who or what is this 46 people keep referring to?

Position of the second round pick

 

[Langway]

interesting comments there from the Pronman piece. It sounds like Mateychuk might not be top 15 compared to what NHL teams have along with Yurov likely being available at 20.

Yeah, that said it's still hard to tell how informed some of the takes are. All that matters are the handful of teams in the 14-19 range in determining what's chiefly available at 20. Some of the other takes about players that may not realistically be options for some teams....I don't know how deeply informed some of them are. Take it FWIW but there's maybe not the same level of detail evaluating players that realistically they're not going to be in a position to take. Or there could be some FUD involved. And then in this draft there's the opportunity for things to go off plan pretty early and for that, in turn, to throw things off thereafter. I don't doubt there will be some surprising options available at 20 and that it could really open up as early as 9/10 with teams going with Their Guy.

If Bichsel pushes down Mateychuk that would be just fine but I suspect they'd still need to move up a few spots to be in a position to get him. I expect the taller D options in Korch/Mint to go higher than Mateychuk but right around 15 seems like where he becomes a strong possibility (barring an earlier D run that puts him in play for NYI at 13 or something). Once it's Geekie, Lambert & Yurov as the top consensus type options left it's really a matter of taste and who teams have a conviction about. I don't doubt the possibility either Geekie or Lambert could be there at 20.

 

[YippieKaey]

Position of the second round pick

Ah thanks cool.

 

[Random schmoe]

Last(?) week I made an offhand comment in response to Pronman's mock draft about being stunned if both Yurov and Miroshnichenko were still on the board in the 20s.

My comment wasn't intended to be criticism of Pronman, not at all. I recognize that he has legitimate sources across the NHL. I also recognize the complete 'crapshoot' nature of NHL mock drafts a month before the event.

My comment was much more meant to imply that I can see some teams being aggressive with those two prospects. Both guys may be top 10 in terms of raw talent in this draft.

When I look at the draft order, and see Washington at 20 with a recognized penchant for taking on some risk in the draft, not to mention the "Russian Factor", I see a good chance they select one of those guys. In recent years it feels like they value ceiling more than floor.

When I look past Washington, I see other teams also not afraid of a little risk, some with multiple picks they could use to trade up ahead of Washington.

For example, a team like Anaheim. I'm not sure that GM Verbeek's risk tolerance is known very well at this point, but assume for the sake of this, and after his years working with Yzerman in Tampa, that he's not afraid to take his shot. They're rebuilding to some extent, and may be willing to target a player who won't need to contribute in the next 3 years. They pick at 22 and have two 2nd rounders. If Anaheim really wanted one of the two Russians, and wanted to ensure they get their preferred one, I could easily see them making a deal to jump up ahead of Washington.

I don't know enough about Anaheim specifically, it was just an easy example. Other teams that may have a similar desire and ability include the Wild at 24 - with Kaprizov already in the fold - also have two 2nds. Montreal at 26, with two 2nds and three 3rds, though they're not historically known for risk with Russians. Arizona at 27, with a later first (32) and four 2nds. Etc.

So what my comment was intended to imply was that there are teams I can see jumping ahead of Washington ensure they get 'their Russian' guy.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Even Geisser is trying to escape this sh*t show. Kidding of course...kinda. He sees the pecking order I’m sure and knows it will be tough to get a legit chance.

 

[trick9]

Another pick bites the dust.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Even Geisser is trying to escape this sh*t show. Kidding of course...kinda. He sees the pecking order I’m sure and knows it will be tough to get a legit chance.

That's a shame, he was really good this year and took a big step. Was hoping to see him take a much bigger role in Hershey next year. At 23 there's still time I guess but feels like this could be the end of the road for him in our organization.

 

[twabby]

NHL Draft Confidential: What scouts and executives think about the No. 1 pick and more

Who should go No. 1? How high can Cutter Gauthier go? What Corey Pronman is hearing about the top prospects ahead of the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

RUSSIAN PLAYERS

Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the debate surrounding Russian players in the NHL Draft hasn’t stopped. It’s going to be a big topic in this draft and possible future drafts too. So what do teams think will happen with Russian players in the draft? What will they do?

Scout 1: “Those are calls that are going to be at the GM level, ownership level. For the scouts, they’re talent evaluators. Our job is to tell our superiors where the players fit on talent. I will deliver my list to my superiors, not taking into account anyone’s passport, and if they want to skip Russian players due to various considerations that’s their decision to make.”

Scout 2: “I think you’ll still see three Russians in the first: Mintyukov, Danila Yurov and Ivan Miroshnichenko, but in general I think the top guys will slide a little and the B/C rated guys will fall a lot.”

Scout 3: “We’re not picking any Russians, I can tell you that. Those orders came from way over my head.”

Executive 1: “I don’t remember the NHL sending out any memos that we needed to waive all Russian players, so I’m confused why we should approach the 18-year-olds any differently.”

Scout 4: “One third of the league likely sees an opportunity to get some good players at value, another third will take them but only when they’re clearly the best player available, and another third will say ‘no thank you.’”

There’s going to be a whole lot of value available because of some dumb teams boycotting Russians.

 

[Langway]

I don't know if teams need to trade into the teens for the Russians or just how hot that market will be. A lot of it seems predicated on deeming them top 10 talents, which may have once been the case but likely is no longer true. If one emphasizes raw ability then Lambert could be a similarly appealing target for teams. Or Geekie if he slides and a team is in desperate need of a 2C prospect. Or Bichsel if a team wants raw length on the back-end to develop. I think there's a lot more likely to intrigue teams than the two Russians and they're not so dynamic that them sliding out of the top 20 is outlandish. They're players teams need to be more actively involved with to obtain similar levels of information. Even for those that are open-minded and put in the work there's enough of a mixed bag when it comes to results where the bottom line won't speak for itself. This is a relatively weak draft at the top. Gauthier & Kasper look to be pretty good bets to crack the top 6-8. Korchinski has likely played his way into the top 10. It's not a stacked group to crack yet for a variety of reasons--not just geopolitics--that's not going to happen for those two. There are caveats on both as to why but I don't think them sliding to the late teens or mid-to-late 20's is too significant. Players that were stronger finishers and those that took part in the combine will have made better closing impressions. Many will opt for steadily upward trajectories they believe will result in a better player compared to someone that once was considered a top 5/10 talent but hasn't sustained it or improved much, has health concerns or could have trouble coming over. Maybe a healthy Miro reverts back to a top 10-15 talent but there are enough questions to not firmly put him in that class. Yurov may be one of the more industrious wingers in this class but does he have upside comparable to Savoie/Kemell/Lekkerimaki? I'm not sure he's shown that. So there are questions beyond the passports. If that weren't the case this isn't the sort of draft where teams can afford to be super selective. Detroit at 8 doesn't strike me as a franchise that would pass on an unquestioned top five sort of talent.

If someone wants to beat the Caps to either so be it. I wouldn't be concerned, particularly if it means Kulich is available. There's just as much upside there, if not more. Yurov has more of an established two-way game and could be a better complementary fit for how the Caps older players operate but Kulich has big-time goal-scoring potential and no real warts. With McGroarty or Ohgren it's more muddled but I don't know that there's any drop-off in upside. You're realistically talking about second-liners pretty much so if they slide it's by no means criminal. I don't think they're Tarasenko & Kuznetsov. Their frames are more advanced than most but that will flatten out in time so what are their projected carrying strengths? I'm not sure either established that to the point needed this season given headwinds not in their favor. Maybe that's a higher standard than a McGroarty has to answer but teams will buy his character. They'll buy it'll be easier to keep tabs on him and guide him. They'll buy his improvement over the course of the season and continued commitment on a number of levels to further growth. It doesn't take much for them to slide when they're less known, don't have the unquestioned productivity to point to or undeniable game-breaking ability to the extent it puts everything else to rest. They're tough evaluations given the seasons they had (even ignoring everything else). I'd still take Yurov but I see that more as solid value+fit than downright steal (similar to Lapierre). I have him 17th slightly ahead of Kulich but it's close.

I don't think they have to come away with one of the two Russians to deem this draft successful. This class is stronger than that. I don't think it's just geopolitics and their passports as to why they may slide. It's part of it but there are enough interested parties where a significant slide will be due to more than just that. While shooting for upside is always the smartest play I think we do need a continually refined sense of what that comprehensively means. It's also a continually evolving landscape and often it's not those that were most noteworthy a year ago that are still perceived the same way. Name value doesn't account for much. There's still solid value to be had there but I'm not sure it's convincing to the point where it drives a hot market. I dont' know that a Snuggerud/Howard/Firkus ultimately doesn't offer just as much.

 

[pman25]

today my draft crush is McGroarty. When I think of players who could really turn into stars in this draft, for whatever reason, i see it with McGroarty. Really good shot. Only real concern seems to be skating mechanics which I never really care if a guy is dinged for skating. Vision, Shot, competiveness, production, etc all rank higher for me more than skating, which can be ironed out with a couple decent offseasons. It doesn't even look that bad, I don't see him losing battles because of his skating currently.

Also, Isaac Howard was my first guy i liked and I still come back to him. I'm not sure why he seems to be below most of the other USNDP guys. Really good hands in tight, just finds ways to get open and score.

I've cooled a bit on Yurov

 

[um]

Let’s be honest, the Caps are taking somebody from the WHL at #20, a super boring and safe pick, probably a left shot d-man.

why is it that our safe picks always fail?

I liked GMGMs philosophy of going for home runs. Worked out way better.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Even Geisser is trying to escape this sh*t show. Kidding of course...kinda. He sees the pecking order I’m sure and knows it will be tough to get a legit chance.

Wonder what a guy like that gets paid?


I was surprised he came back last year.

why is it that our safe picks always fail?

I liked GMGMs philosophy of going for home runs. Worked out way better.

He drafted a lot of crap also…..

 

[Langway]

McGroarty seems like a NSH/DAL/LAK pick, though many of their fans on HF are thinking defense with their picks. Certainly he should be on the short list at 20. Beyond the skating there are elements to clean up so I'm not fully sold. His off puck play can be limited/disengaged, in part due to skating, but it's hard to chalk it up to just that. Physicality can also just be so-so, again perhaps due to not being able to close as well. There's a lot hinging on skating improving in terms of details to play an effective two-way game. I think it will albeit maybe not to the point where it's a strength so it's likely to limit his upside. You won't find any totally clean, readymade options. Wright has questions at 1 and may not be the pick. At 20 you're trying to swing for the fences while mitigating downside.

I think with Howard it's mostly about tenacity and whether he's dynamic/shifty enough. If he's more in-and-out and opportunistic that can be hard to project. Doing that against college players or his peers is one thing. Against NHLers there won't be as much lower-hanging fruit. Does he need elite linemates? Can he be a more consistent driver? Can he diversify for more of an all-around game? His offensive upside is enticing but there are enough questions to push him down. A team like Toronto could get a real steal if he's there at 25 and all goes right. Same with Firkus and even Snuggerud if he polishes his all-around game. It's such a wide open draft that who knows how it looks a year or two from now. As such I'd want to either be motivated enough to run up to the podium to pick or trade down. Absent strong conviction it's better to get more opps than to settle. It takes two but...still.

For the Caps as fits I come back to Mintyukov, Mateychuk and Lambert as more modest trade ups. Hard to say when the D run starts so realistically Lambert may be the most viable. Even with him, I mean, there are real concerns but the skating is something useful. (Any capable youth will help some with pace, though.) Perhaps a bit later I like Firkus & Ostlund. If they're shook about a Backstrom-less future I don't think there's a better fit as at least a poor man's positional/playmaking center than Ostlund. He has Swedish subtlety. Chesley also checks off many boxes as far as upside, character and a relatively high floor. Ideally you want A Player and in the absence of being able to develop that style it's wise to prioritize the all-around qualities of such competitors. Which I suppose is me talking myself into Ostlund or Chesley, who are maybe not overly flashy but a couple of the more effective two-way options in this draft.

 

[Cush]

Best skaters? Top shots? Corey Pronman ranks the 2022 NHL draft-eligibles by skill

Which 2022 NHL Draft prospects are the best skaters, have the best puck skills, hockey sense, shot, and are the most physically dominant?

theathletic.com

 

[Langway]

Brock's final OHL rankings are up over on his blog. Sapovaliv, DBB & Rohrer could perhaps be options in the second. George & Petrovsky in the third. Kyrou could be intriguing later. The Caps also should probably just draft Landon Sim before he inevitably shreds them for someone else.

 

[SoulessGingerCapsFan]

Brock's final OHL rankings are up over on his blog. Sapovaliv, DBB & Rohrer could perhaps be options in the second. George & Petrovsky in the third. Kyrou could be intriguing later. The Caps also should probably just draft Landon Sim before he inevitably shreds them for someone else.

Might’ve missed it earlier in this thread… but is that actually in relation to the infamous Jon Sim?

 

[Cush]

Might’ve missed it earlier in this thread… but is that actually in relation to the infamous Jon Sim?

Son. Caps love bloodlines, so I could see them drafting him

 

[Holtbyisms]

Brock's final OHL rankings are up over on his blog. Sapovaliv, DBB & Rohrer could perhaps be options in the second. George & Petrovsky in the third. Kyrou could be intriguing later. The Caps also should probably just draft Landon Sim before he inevitably shreds them for someone else.

The two top goalies are late 2nd/3rds...I'd be interested in taking one of them somehow. After them it falls off a cliff. Trade back in the 2nd and pickup another decent pick? Draft them both?