Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[ArmadilloThumb]

Sounds like you’re expecting a big teardown of some sort after Ovechkin is gone (and I admit I have previously said I expect a painful rebuild)…but prior GMBM has them positioned well if they need to go that route, but I don’t think they’re expecting to go down it if Leonard (and other youngsters) blossoms, PLD turns out decent, etc….

As you may have noticed I tend to be an optimist about our Caps and am even more so after all the summer moves and Draft.

I see it as last year was the bottom and we won't miss the playoffs for many, many years. If a few things go right we could become a top tier team. If that happens the Caps become a much more attractive destination for FAs in two or three years. And we should have a great deal of Cap flexibility.

We didn't buy CapCapFriendly to piss off other team's - we bought it to build a winner.

 

[bacchist]

Hopefully we can keep flipping so we're in good shape for a rebuild in a couple years. We're on the right track.

If all goes well, that can be avoided. We should have a competitive team, if not this year surely next year after Leonard joins the team, Lapierre reaches his prime, Miro is ready for full time NHL duty, etc.

I don't want to have to endure a rebuild. It sucks.

 

[qc14]

If all goes well, that can be avoided. We should have a competitive team, if not this year surely next year after Leonard joins the team, Lapierre reaches his prime, Miro is ready for full time NHL duty, etc.

I don't want to have to endure a rebuild. It sucks.

I think that fortunately the scorched earth, tear everything down rebuild doesn't work when you're not the only team doing it. Losing -- and especially losing on purpose -- leads to a losing culture and is bad for business and results. I also think that our FO is smart enough to recognize that.

I don't envision anyone in our pipeline besides Leonard becoming a true star, and the team could definitely still end up being bad enough to get a top 5 pick but at least it won't be on purpose.

 

[Holtbyisms]

If all goes well, that can be avoided. We should have a competitive team, if not this year surely next year after Leonard joins the team, Lapierre reaches his prime, Miro is ready for full time NHL duty, etc.

I don't want to have to endure a rebuild. It sucks.

Sucks a whole lot less than finishing 6-8 seed every year and getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. Imagine having drafted 13-18 every year the last time we rebuilt and never getting Ovi or Backstrom? We'd likely still be cupless.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Sucks a whole lot less than finishing 6-8 seed every year and getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. Imagine having drafted 13-18 every year the last time we rebuilt and never getting Ovi or Backstrom? We'd likely still be cupless.

It absolutely does not suck less. Rebuilding is ass and it’s super ass if you suck at the wrong time and don’t get legitimate franchise cornerstones to build around. The Hurricanes were irrelevant for a decade. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since Osama bin Laden got smoked. The Candiens, Red Wings, and Senators are all spinning their wheels hoping they don’t continue their one step forward, two step backs approach. The Blue Jackets… yikes. And that’s only the Eastern conference - we haven’t touched in the Ducks, Sharks, Coyotes/Utah HC, etc.

Rebuilding is awful and normally takes a minimum of five years, and that’s if you’re lucky. If you don’t have to do it you definitely shouldn’t.

 

[qc14]

It absolutely does not suck less. Rebuilding is ass and it’s super ass if you suck at the wrong time and don’t get legitimate franchise cornerstones to build around. The Hurricanes were irrelevant for a decade. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since Osama bin Laden got smoked. The Candiens, Red Wings, and Senators are all spinning their wheels hoping they don’t continue their one step forward, two step backs approach. The Blue Jackets… yikes. And that’s only the Eastern conference - we haven’t touched in the Ducks, Sharks, Coyotes/Utah HC, etc.

Rebuilding is awful and normally takes a minimum of five years, and that’s if you’re lucky. If you don’t have to do it you definitely shouldn’t.

There have been zero examples of a team "rebuilding" by being purposefully bad that have successfully turned the corner, and a whole lot of them that have completely torched their relationship with their fans and gotten stuck in a cycle of losing culture because of it.

 

[Holtbyisms]

There have been zero examples of a team "rebuilding" by being purposefully bad that have successfully turned the corner, and a whole lot of them that have completely torched their relationship with their fans and gotten stuck in a cycle of losing culture because of it.

You mean like the Capitals(Ovi, Backstrom, Alzner), Penguins(Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Whitney, Staal) and Blackhawks(Barker, Skille, Towes, Kane) who combined for 7 cups did? We can all pretend none of these three teams "tanked" if it makes us feel better about ourselves but they absolutely did. Give the Blackhawks a few years and they'll be contenders again. The Oilers struck out a bunch but now have two of the best players on the planet and will continue to be a force for the foreseeable future. It's rare for a long term dynasty in the salary cap era to exist without multiple high lottery picks. Can you build a playoff team, sure. A winner... possibly but really difficult to do.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A tear down rebuild requires landing a generational talent or two to pay off IMO….we got lucky…..and still almost didn’t win a Cup.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Sharks starting to build a real nice young core. Hopefully Mike Grier Keeps the GM job long enough to see the turnaround.

 

[Rayquaza64]

A team needs both high end talent both drafted and traded for. See: Blues, Knights. Those would be the types of frameworks we would be looking to emulate for building a team without a highly drafted superstar. Would imagine we'd need to identify gems in trades. We'd have to find our Ryan O'Reilly or Jack Eichel/Mark Stone

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

What I see us doing is continuing this 'rolling retool' which is being adjusted as circumstances shift. That's why I think we bought CapCapFriendly. Not exactly Moneyball, but a strategy where a lot of many-steps-ahead scenarios are considered, analyzed and executed. The CapCapFriendly STAFF are probably a big part of this, and they might be leveraging Predictive Analysis in modeling moves and team evolution. The recent aggressive Draft/Off Season moves are in line with this measured risk/aggressive approach.

Some possible next steps could be moving assets during the season for more Draft Capital or young talent who they identify as having untapped potential. Maybe TVR, Milano or Dowd go before the TD, even if we are doing very well and they think Miroshnichenko and Sutter are ready to go. They may not of course, but I suspect they will be looking at ways like this to incrementally improve the pool of talent/picks if the replacements are ready to be effective. Those kind to moves add up over time.

 

[qc14]

You mean like the Capitals(Ovi, Backstrom, Alzner), Penguins(Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Whitney, Staal) and Blackhawks(Barker, Skille, Towes, Kane) who combined for 7 cups did? We can all pretend none of these three teams "tanked" if it makes us feel better about ourselves but they absolutely did. Give the Blackhawks a few years and they'll be contenders again. The Oilers struck out a bunch but now have two of the best players on the planet and will continue to be a force for the foreseeable future. It's rare for a long term dynasty in the salary cap era to exist without multiple high lottery picks. Can you build a playoff team, sure. A winner... possibly but really difficult to do.

I really think it's path-dependent and the process of how you become that bad makes a big difference.

None of those four teams embarked on the years-long project of deliberately losing that modern tanking requires -- they just happened to be bad at the right time. I would look at Florida, Colorado, and Tampa as examples as well. They obviously are nowhere close to what they've become without Stamkos, Hedman, Barkov, MacKinnon, Rantanen, and to a lesser extent Ekblad. But, they drafted all of those guys in years they were trying to be at least somewhat competitive!

Of the recent examples of full on Moneyball style tanks, I would only call the Devils a "success" and they have qualified for the playoffs a grand total of twice in the last ten years.

I think there's a significant chance within the next 5 years the Caps are bad. Maybe even really bad, to the point they're picking in the top 5, and maybe more than once. I really, really, really hope they get to that point because the wheels fall off of Lindgren, or Carbery turns out to be an awful coach, or PLD and Chychrun are complete busts, or whatever other natural reason happens often in sports -- not because they purposefully iced an AHL team for multiple seasons in a row.

 

[Midnight Judges]

As you may have noticed I tend to be an optimist about our Caps and am even more so after all the summer moves and Draft.

I see it as last year was the bottom and we won't miss the playoffs for many, many years. If a few things go right we could become a top tier team. If that happens the Caps become a much more attractive destination for FAs in two or three years. And we should have a great deal of Cap flexibility.

We didn't buy CapCapFriendly to piss off other team's - we bought it to build a winner.

That is indeed optimistic.

It seems to me the Capitals' record was better than the actual quality of the team to some extent (perhaps not the full extent). Put a different way, the goal differential was out of whack with the wins and losses to a degree that is unusual.

You can't count on that kind of outcome.

IMO the Capitals are significantly improved but I don't share the confidence that this team becomes a contender. The top end talent just isn't there anymore. My prediction: battling for a wildcard once again.

 

[Corby78]

It absolutely does not suck less. Rebuilding is ass and it’s super ass if you suck at the wrong time and don’t get legitimate franchise cornerstones to build around. The Hurricanes were irrelevant for a decade. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since Osama bin Laden got smoked. The Candiens, Red Wings, and Senators are all spinning their wheels hoping they don’t continue their one step forward, two step backs approach. The Blue Jackets… yikes. And that’s only the Eastern conference - we haven’t touched in the Ducks, Sharks, Coyotes/Utah HC, etc.

Rebuilding is awful and normally takes a minimum of five years, and that’s if you’re lucky. If you don’t have to do it you definitely shouldn’t.

Rebuilding isn’t easy but usually necessary. If it was easy to build a winner and not rebuild, everyone would be the next dynasty.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I guess I don’t have a problem with them fighting for a playoff spot all year….sure I’d much rather be in the more comfortable 3-6 spot than 7-10 clawing for that last spot.

Feels like some of our fans have gotten too used to 100+ point seasons, President’s Cups and regular season glory. No appetite for a dogfight….?

 

[qc14]

I think the most likely outcome this year is that they are around the same place they were last year record/standings wise but with a much better goal difference and underlying metrics.

I'll take a dogfight for the playoffs - even if they miss - every single time over a season where I have to root for them to lose.

 

[NoVaCapsFan]

For the STH community, of which I am one, the all-year dogfight is 100x better than a tank year or two, even if it means longer odds for a Cup in the future. I can’t spend beaucoup $$$ to watch a purposefully bad product, not even for one season - at least not where there is a path to being competitive.

 

[g00n]

For the STH community, of which I am one, the all-year dogfight is 100x better than a tank year or two, even if it means longer odds for a Cup in the future. I can’t spend beaucoup $$$ to watch a purposefully bad product, not even for one season - at least not where there is a path to being competitive.

You are not alone and Ted knows this, which is why they will never tank intentionally and why people get fired when they miss the playoffs.

 

[McVechkin]

As much as I love chucks the person and respect his work, I also don’t really think he’s a long term #1.. I’m concerned where they are with their goalies.

 

[bacchist]

Rebuilding isn’t easy but usually necessary. If it was easy to build a winner and not rebuild, everyone would be the next dynasty.

At this point in my life, I'd rather have watchable hockey 6-8 months out of the year for the foreseeable future than endure years of having no chance and no reason to even follow the team just for a remote chance at a cup if the stars align some years down the road. Maybe I'm just getting old.

 

[usiel]

Barring Ovie breaking the record this year no rebuild for the next two. Don't really see Hagen and Mckenna who are probably the top picks in the next two drafts really being generational. Its more of 2027 and beyond.

 

[YippieKaey]

Who's this Barry Trotz guy i've been hearing about and what are your opinions on him?

 

[usiel]

Who's this Barry Trotz guy i've been hearing about and what are your opinions on him?

Hahah.

 

[DWGie26]

I’m surprised nobody has mentioned what Dallas has done. It was a solid mix of draft picks (some lucky) and free agents. I like that model and i think the Caps can do better. But they need to hit on a few things. Not all of them because that is impossible. We need good/greatness to emerge from a mix of Strome, PLD, McM, Lappy, Protas, Cherchrun, Roy, Mangi. If we can beat the odds we will be looking young and solid.

 

[OV Rocks]

As much as I love chucks the person and respect his work, I also don’t really think he’s a long term #1.. I’m concerned where they are with their goalies.

I don’t think anyone here sees Chucky as the long term solution, in fact he might not even get a contract at the end of the year. But for this year him and Thompson make a really interesting combo that could combine for a pretty good save percentage.

Long term the Caps are super high on Stevenson. Giving him a 65-70% split in Hershey this year and then graduate him to the caps in 25. I remember on 32 Thoughts Elliot mentioned that he’s the long term solution in net for the Caps.

Hot take - if Stevenson lights it up in Hershey this year, trade Chucky at the deadline.