Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Jags]

I'd be curious to hear what the "off-season isn't over, let's see what GMBM has up his sleeve" crowd thinks will happen the remainder of the off-season. Do they forsee a Kuznetsov trade, after the RyJo, Hayes, and Hall trades? Do they forsee a Mantha trade despite the 1st round of the draft being done? Do they forsee Backstrom being LTIR'd? Where do they anticipate the cap space to make major overhauls to come from? Or, are they like many of us, largely anticipating budget-oriented signings?

This is really clever, basically shitting on posts that haven't happened yet. A+ for creativity and innovation.

You're right, it's hard to see big changes from where we're sitting now, but his best trades have come from outta nowhere. It was easier to see a path last year because of the strength of the FA class and the wiggle room we had. No idea what's in store, but he's a man of few words that specifically mentioned wanting to retool the top 6.

This summer might be a trip to the supermarket. Looks to be a ho-hum trip, but I'm buckling up just in case.

 

[g00n]

I'd be curious to hear what the "off-season isn't over, let's see what GMBM has up his sleeve" crowd thinks will happen the remainder of the off-season. Do they forsee a Kuznetsov trade, after the RyJo, Hayes, and Hall trades? Do they forsee a Mantha trade despite the 1st round of the draft being done? Do they forsee Backstrom being LTIR'd? Where do they anticipate the cap space to make major overhauls to come from? Or, are they like many of us, largely anticipating budget-oriented signings?

Nobody in that "crowd" is making specific predictions. You're doing that because you want to be proven right.

We're pointing at the calendar and noting it's only been a few weeks since the Cup was skated so we can't declare the offseason over yet.

Will something happen? Who knows. But you can bet they're trying.

It takes two to tango.

 

[HecticGlow]

I think the reason Kuzy will still be on our team next season is because we would have to give him away for free, and there isn’t an immediate replacement for him in our system or in FA. I don’t see Compher or Backlund being better than Kuzy for our prospects of success.

Equally if we pay to move Mantha, are we getting a meaningfully better player for his cap hit out of the current FA crop? Is Mantha under a new coach and in a contract year worse than Bertuzzi or Bunting for 5+ years? I think it would have been worth it to take a punt on a guy like Ross Colton, given his age and ability, but that hasn’t happened.

I don’t think our lineup is as terrible as last year’s performance was… there’s a decent chance they perform better this year under new coaches. I think if we make meaningful changes, it may well be during the season.

 

[g00n]

I'm not a fan of back to back NHL games.

Nobody is but it shouldn't be an excuse if they come up short

 

[g00n]

I think the reason Kuzy will still be on our team next season is because we would have to give him away for free, and there isn’t an immediate replacement for him in our system or in FA. I don’t see Compher or Backlund being better than Kuzy for our prospects of success.

Equally if we pay to move Mantha, are we getting a meaningfully better player for his cap hit out of the current FA crop? Is Mantha under a new coach and in a contract year worse than Bertuzzi or Bunting for 5+ years? I think it would have been worth it to take a punt on a guy like Ross Colton, given his age and ability, but that hasn’t happened.

I don’t think our lineup is as terrible as last year’s performance was… there’s a decent chance they perform better this year under new coaches. I think if we make meaningful changes, it may well be during the season.

This is the calculus the Caps FO is likely using. Why Panik and take the L on a deal just to clear space when you have a new coach coming in? It's not ideal but it allows for a plan B if you can't move guys everyone around the league is probably undervaluing based on performance, as opposed to looking at their past success and potential.

Kuzy and Mantha would both be sell-low moves unless some other team is willing to exchange similar cap hits for similarly underperforming players, in the hopes that a change of scenery and coaching will create value. It would be the 2nd time Mantha was involved in such a deal so probably a lot less likely.

 

[HecticGlow]

Do they forsee a Mantha trade despite the 1st round of the draft being done? Do they forsee Backstrom being LTIR'd?

Mantha wasn’t going for a first, or any meaningful pick, so I’m not sure why you think it’s significant he hasn’t gone by the 1st round? It’s clear from media reports there’s little interest, so in the (unlikely) scenario he’s moved why would a buyer be in any rush?

As for Backstrom, even if the team wanted to do this they will need compelling medical evidence he can’t play hockey - not just that he can’t play to contract value / the role he was signed to. People act like the team can just sign a form and be done with it, ignoring the scrutiny from the league to ensure it isn’t cap circumvention. And if Backstrom wants to play, and every indication is he does, they’ll have to convince the NHLPA he’s medically unfit too.

With all that in mind, it’s clear a decision isn’t coming before training camp, if at all.

 

[Hivemind]

This is really clever, basically shitting on posts that haven't happened yet. A+ for creativity and innovation.

What? The posts have already started popping up in multiple threads.

 

[Hivemind]

Mantha wasn’t going for a first, or any meaningful pick, so I’m not sure why you think it’s significant he hasn’t gone by the 1st round? It’s clear from media reports there’s little interest, so in the (unlikely) scenario he’s moved why would a buyer be in any rush?

As for Backstrom, even if the team wanted to do this they will need compelling medical evidence he can’t play hockey - not just that he can’t play to contract value / the role he was signed to. People act like the team can just sign a form and be done with it, ignoring the scrutiny from the league to ensure it isn’t cap circumvention. And if Backstrom wants to play, and every indication is he does, they’ll have to convince the NHLPA he’s medically unfit too.

With all that in mind, it’s clear a decision isn’t coming before training camp, if at all.

I didn’t expect Mantha to be moved for a first. But most of these cap clearing trades happen on day 1 of the draft (or before), regardless of what the pick involved is. Look at the trades for Hayes, Hall, Smith, Blackwood, Toffoli, and Colton that have already happened. None of them involve a 1st round pick. The rate of trades involving roster players under contract is going to slow between now and free agency opening.

I mentioned Backstrom to point out both that we all believe LTIR is unlikely, but more importantly, they aren’t going to sign players to his cap space before any decision is reached much later in the off-season. He’s still going to be occupying cap space this off-season, and without the other moves that seem almost as unlikely, there’s really not much room to expect things to change as a result.

 

[HecticGlow]

I didn’t expect Mantha to be moved for a first. But most of these cap clearing trades happen on day 1 of the draft (or before), regardless of what the pick involved is. Look at the trades for Hayes, Hall, Smith, Blackwood, Toffoli, and Colton that have already happened. None of them involve a 1st round pick. The rate of trades involving roster players under contract is going to slow between now and free agency opening.

I understand your point, but I’m not sure it’s a comparable situation. I agree yes not bringing in guys without having cleared space, but outside of a Johansen-type trade - were the Caps really likely to eat some of Mantha’s cap hit for the full year just to move him? - those guys all had perceived value to the acquiring team. Even if they were had cheaply, we haven’t seen many examples yet or teams sending a bad contract to Arizona or Philly with a sweetener. Mantha’s closest comparable there might be Blackwood, but he was also a pending FA so wasn’t exactly a cap clearing move in the usual sense.

My point is that if there are changes GMBM can make that he feels will make the team better, they can still be made. But I think he’s also wise enough to know not to make any knee-jerk moves now that hurt us down the line, especially when some of the problems on the roster only have 1 or 2 years left on their deal. I’d rather keep Mantha another year than give up #40 just to sign another middling FA guy to term, for example. The right deal has to be there, and that needs to work for multiple teams (given neither Mantha or Kuzy were likely to be 1v1 swaps for NHL talent).

There are a number of rather interesting players who seem to be heading to FA, including Comtois out of Anaheim and Caleb Jones in Chicago, who could well end up the Brett Connelly/DSP/Milano -type players of this year for us. I suspect GMBM wants to keep as many options open as he can for as long as he can before deciding what this year might look like.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is the calculus the Caps FO is likely using. Why Panik and take the L on a deal just to clear space when you have a new coach coming in? It's not ideal but it allows for a plan B if you can't move guys everyone around the league is probably undervaluing based on performance, as opposed to looking at their past success and potential.

Kuzy and Mantha would both be sell-low moves unless some other team is willing to exchange similar cap hits for similarly underperforming players, in the hopes that a change of scenery and coaching will create value. It would be the 2nd time Mantha was involved in such a deal so probably a lot less likely.

They’re just stuck with the plug. NOBODY wants him.

Mantha is different….he’s playing for his career, if he can get his head straight with Carbs, he could have a great rebound….the other guy said years ago….”meh…..I have my money now, I’m good.” (Kuzy, Mantha, Oshie…..no takers)

 

[Langway]

It's a waiting game. They're going to be waiting and seeing on the $9.2M elephant in the room anyway so it makes sense to just...wait. Rather than pay up assets only to still probably have a somewhat dodgy roster just wait and see what may materialize as the off-season progresses and teams continue to assess their options. We know there's still going to be a boatloads of trades due to both the flat cap and a thin free agent market. Winnipeg can't even find a strong market for Hellebuyck given the extension he'll demand. Same with Ottawa and DeBrincat. It's tough even with more attractive assets, let alone diminished ones. There have been some moves but 92/39 aren't Toffoli for a competitive team or Hall for more of a rebuilding one. If they move I'd wager it'll be to more of a tweener team.

Maybe some trade fits line up, either swaps or straight dumps. But, if not, maybe they're restricted to adding someone in the $3M range in free agency once cap space dries up around the league. Or maybe there's a net upgrade where they're able to swap out Mantha plus for someone else's pricier player they're looking to shave down from. There's not much money in the system so we'll see. The key is probably to wait for the marketplace to squeeze teams and players and be patient to maximize what space they do have.

As much as they'd maybe like to restructure or free up cap space you need high quality target replacements, too. I'm not sure there's a ton that intrigues at the moment. Maybe Lindholm or Hanifin. Maybe DeBrincat. Maybe Wheeler once he's bought out on the cheap. But, again, perhaps a bit later in the off-season other possibilities emerge (like a Nylander).

 

[g00n]

What are the comparables for a Kuzy trade? What top 6 guys are being moved from struggling teams with new coaches?

Toffoli? He had a much better season than Kuzy... a career scoring year vs Kuzy's worst season since his first full campaign as a Cap. Calgary still only got one roster player and a mid-round pick, iirc. The return was not close to the true player value because of the known want-away status of Toffoli. Kuzy's in the same "motivated seller" boat, with reduced value due to 1/3 the production of Toffoli, on top of a horrid season AND various off-ice baggage. That's not even considering Toffoli's meager cap hit which is a bit more than half Kuzy's.

Johansen? A cap clearing move that returned an injured journeyman in Galchenyuk, whose been as frustratingly inconsistent as Mantha, and seems to have peaked 7 or so years ago.

Anyone else? Who's netting a king's ransom or even decent value right now, among teams going for a new start/system/coach and trying to move a boat anchor contract?

 

[trick9]

What are the comparables for a Kuzy trade? What top 6 guys are being moved from struggling teams with new coaches?

Toffoli? He had a much better season than Kuzy... a career scoring year vs Kuzy's worst season since his first full campaign as a Cap. Calgary still only got one roster player and a mid-round pick, iirc. The return was not close to the true player value because of the known want-away status of Toffoli. Kuzy's in the same "motivated seller" boat, with reduced value due to 1/3 the production of Toffoli, on top of a horrid season AND various off-ice baggage. That's not even considering Toffoli's meager cap hit which is a bit more than half Kuzy's.

Johansen? A cap clearing move that returned an injured journeyman in Galchenyuk, whose been as frustratingly inconsistent as Mantha, and seems to have peaked 7 or so years ago.

Anyone else? Who's netting a king's ransom or even decent value right now, among teams going for a new start/system/coach and trying to move a boat anchor contract?

Mark Scheifele had a really good season and he's a guy that has all kinds of red flags around him too. Latest reports are that teams aren't interested in him either, which is somewhat surprising.

It just seems like teams aren't that interested in headcases, atleast ones that are over 30 and as long as there are other similar options available.

 

[g00n]

Mark Scheifele had a really good season and he's a guy that has all kinds of red flags around him too. Latest reports are that teams aren't interested in him either, which is somewhat surprising.

It just seems like teams aren't that interested in headcases, atleast ones that are over 30 and as long as there are other similar options available.

I just think it's wrongheaded to believe that the best value for a veteran want-away with attitude and off-ice issues is during the draft, when all teams are focused on youth, good attitudes, long-term futures, the unknown "what's behind door #2" gambling of drafting for free, loss-aversion wrt draft position, contract cost, etc.

It's probably the WORST possible time to try and move a guy like Kuzy. TDL is much better when GMs are fantasizing about best-case value-adds from projects and headcases who might have a slim chance of delivering the cup at a prorated price.

 

[Langway]

Josh Bailey was just dumped for a '26 2nd. Chicago still has space and is one of a few teams engaging in that. San Jose may be another. But there aren't many.

You wonder if one or more of those '25 2nds don't eventually make their way out in such a trade involving Mantha.

 

[Calicaps]

Literally zero trades in round 1 of the draft this year. Can’t remember the last time that happened. But sure, it’s just that the Caps’ assets are worse than everyone else’s and no one wants them and not that the top end of this draft class was excellent so no one wanted to part with their picks.

 

[Brian23]

Josh Bailey was just dumped for a '26 2nd. Chicago still has space and is one of a few teams engaging in that. San Jose may be another. But there aren't many.

You wonder if one or more of those '25 2nds don't eventually make their way out in such a trade involving Mantha.

I see no reason to use it on Mantha. I can understand Kuznetsov though.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

They need cap space to make any significant change in the top six. BMac seems dead set on making that happen. I believe Mantha will be dumped somehow. I get the feeling the org is ready to move on. I wish it was Kuzy instead because the dude appears to not give a sh*t about this team and frankly I've grown tired of the on again/off again routine with him BUT....his contract is large and he controls where he goes to a point. This is a frustrating situation.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

‘I’m here because of them’: Mitch Love thanks Flames farmhands for his own NHL shot

After coaching the Calgary Wranglers for two seasons, Mitch Love has been hired as assistant coach by the Washington Capitals

calgarysun.com

 

[Roshi]

Sometimes the best trade is the one you dont make. I wouldnt pay or eat salary to get rid of Kuzy. Lets hope it works out for us.

I dont think we need more ”Milanos or DSPs” now though. We already have a Milano, and NAK, and i want to see CMM and Protas to be those guys this time. Remaining cap space should be reserved for a real top6 or top4 guy. If that takes buying out or retaining on Mantha, so be it.

 

[HeyMattyB]

While speaking to the press at Bridgestone Arena, MacLellan revealed that just because the team did not make a deal ahead of the draft, didn’t mean there weren’t gears turning behind the scenes.

“We’re still trying to make a change or changes in our top six or find a way to create something,” MacLellan said. “We’ll see if we can make it happen or not.”

MacLellan was then prompted by The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir to clarify if he means exclusively by trade.

“Trade, yes,” MacLellan answered quickly. “Yep.”

There was a long pause.

“Or free agency. We look at both opportunities. We’d like to make a change.”

 

[Jags]

Those quotes about the top 6 from that interview were far milder than what he said on exit day, however. He seemed far more measured in his comments today. Sounded way less definitive. He never sounds outright optimistic, but there were hints of pessimism today.

 

[um]

Why do the Pens always get less back2backs than us?

I imagine no NBA team and less events (I assume) makes scheduling easier.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

While speaking to the press at Bridgestone Arena, MacLellan revealed that just because the team did not make a deal ahead of the draft, didn’t mean there weren’t gears turning behind the scenes.

“We’re still trying to make a change or changes in our top six or find a way to create something,” MacLellan said. “We’ll see if we can make it happen or not.”

MacLellan was then prompted by The Athletic’s Tarik El-Bashir to clarify if he means exclusively by trade.

“Trade, yes,” MacLellan answered quickly. “Yep.”

There was a long pause.

“Or free agency. We look at both opportunities. We’d like to make a change.”