Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
What is the obsession with this Phillips guy??

He's playing tonight, let's see how he goes. If he keeps putting in the effort and getting results he will be rewarded with a roster spot. And maybe more ice time etc. He has a better shot with Carberry as coach than if Lavi were here.
 
lol….I have no problem with small…I do have a problem with small and limited talent….

Goals and assists…..produce, simple. If he does he stays, if not, well you know….I want guys who produce, bottom line.
And yet, he's one of the more productive players when you look at 5v5 per 60 production. I'm not sure why that hasn't sunk in for you, and I'm losing interest in holding your hand on this.
 
has anyone ever proven that those stats extrapolate with more ice time?
I don't know if anyone's ever used something like a linear regression to assess efficacy at higher utilization. It'd be an interesting study though - evaluating the impact of line ascension in hockey development.
 
If anything I would expect those stats to get worse with more ice time.

Stats look great with small sample sizes. They are almost impossible to sustain over the long term (unless you're a Draisatl or McDavid).

Stats can also look terrible over small sample sizes.

Indeed If you look at xG rates it suggests that he is getting a little bit unlucky. His on-ice xG differential is +0.94 per 60 yet his on-ice goal differential is 0.

Importantly we know that xG differential is a more predictive measure than goal differential, so in small sample sizes it's even more important to look at these process stats rather than results.
 
  • Like
Reactions: alphabetical
And yet, he's one of the more productive players when you look at 5v5 per 60 production. I'm not sure why that hasn't sunk in for you, and I'm losing interest in holding your hand on this.
lol….comical…..you Phillips fanboys sure are stout…..tiny, but feisty! Keep up the good fight.
 
Stats can also look terrible over small sample sizes.

Indeed If you look at xG rates it suggests that he is getting a little bit unlucky. His on-ice xG differential is +0.94 per 60 yet his on-ice goal differential is 0.

Importantly we know that xG differential is a more predictive measure than goal differential, so in small sample sizes it's even more important to look at these process stats rather than results.
But if you're not looking at points per game, how can you simplify the argument for capitalscupreality?
 
lol….comical…..you Phillips fanboys sure are stout…..tiny, but feisty! Keep up the good fight.
It's crazy that people want someone who tries to play when some caps like kuzy are standing around looking at the play go by. There's no reason for Kuzy to get 20+ minutes a night any more, and philips is just one of the many players that deserve more ice time.

Wake up….players get paid for actually delivering production. Learn pro sports.
Again, if you're looking at production per minute played, you're actually arguing for younger players like philips to play more and the old guys like kuzy to play less.
 
It's crazy that people want someone who tries to play when some caps like kuzy are standing around looking at the play go by. There's no reason for Kuzy to get 20+ minutes a night any more, and philips is just one of the many players that deserve more ice time.


Again, if you're looking at production per minute played, you're actually arguing for younger players like philips to play more and the old guys like kuzy to play less.
You don’t see me lobbying for 92 getting more time….jesus….I suggested waiving him recently.
 
Is it an oversimplification to say they seem to have one good/dangerous line per night? I'm going strictly by impressions and seeing the score/highlights from last night.
 
So Protas is able to play wing on any line as a complimentary player. right? And bottom-6 center probably even if not the best one. Cool progress.

Its easy to envision them using Strome-CMM-Jimi-Dowd center line with Protas playing wing for these next 2-3 years.

Just need to lose those pesky old expensive wingers you know.

PS: Also Edmundson with his PK and last minute defense abilities is a step in right direction comparing to having two of Sandin/AA/Lujo on the left side.
 
I think the ones asking for more minutes for players in the middle-six are getting their wish in the next... 3 weeks. Our schedule is brutal with 9 of 11 games away at home and the weeks are like this:

4 in 6 this week, all away.
4 in 7 next week, 3 in 4 days to close out the week.
The week after... 3 days off, then another 3 in 4 days to close out the week.
Even the week after that is 3 games in 4 days.

I don't really have a specific player in mind when asking for more ice-time, as i think the middle-six players have all being kind of 'eased in' and they rotate at times, which has worked well. I think they've played well when playing. 4th line generally is trusted upon in many match-up's and situations, they will see the same amount of ice.

But the issue is the top-line. It's obvious that Carbery is trying to get them going. And you can't really fault him, that's nearly ~30% of our cap space tied to them. You give them every opportunity to get going. But at some point, it's time to cut the fat off. Wilson has his moments and Ovechkin has looked sluggish, but he looked better with Strome. At what point it's the time to just let Kuznetsov know that this just isn't working? He's actively even dragging down his line-mates this season. It's not long ago where he led the entire NHL in forwards ice-time and that's just plain wrong. I had hopes (once again) for him this season but this has been hot garbage all the way. He doesn't pass the eye test effort-wise. Everyone seems to follow all sorts of different advanced stats, i do too, but there are very few charts where he isn't among the worst in the NHL. We may not have a 1-on-1 replacement 1C as is, but at some point you are just going to have to look at the situation and decide that perhaps we are better off without this guy floating around for ~20 minutes a game but rather perhaps give a minute or two more collectively to couple of guys who have been producing okay, while playing better defensive hockey. It might end being that those players don't keep their very high production per 60 numbers as high, but with Kuznetsov the bar is really, really low this season.

Highlight reel from Kuznetsov, 5-on-5 (don't think i need to mention the PP):

Corsi for: 216
Corsi against: 261
Corsi: 45.28%

Goals for: 6
Goals against: 11
GF: 35.29%

Expected goals for: 9.89
Expected goals against: 13.7
xGF: 41.94%

Scoring chances for: 103
Scoring chances against: 140
Scoring chances: 42.39%

High-danger scoring chances for: 31
High-danger scoring chances against: 54
High-danger scoring: 36.47%

At some point you just need to start asking yourself... alright, nobody is going to want this guy. No matter how much we showcase him. Does he make our team better?

It's not like he's playing some brutal minutes either. He plays with good (well, away from him good) linemates and it's not like he's trusted in some great defensive role 5-on-5. These are the zone starts for centers:

Dylan Strome: 67.53% in the offensive-zone
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 66.27% in the offensive-zone
Connor McMichael: 59.26% in the offensive-zone
Hendrix Lapierre: 41.18% in the offensive-zone
Aliaksei Protas: 27.78% (!) in the offensive-zone
Nic Dowd: 7.02% (!!!) in the offensive-zone

Also to wrap up: There isn't a single line-up combination this season that have been positive in terms of goals for/against that has had Evgeny Kuznetsov in it.
 
I think the ones asking for more minutes for players in the middle-six are getting their wish in the next... 3 weeks. Our schedule is brutal with 9 of 11 games away at home and the weeks are like this:

4 in 6 this week, all away.
4 in 7 next week, 3 in 4 days to close out the week.
The week after... 3 days off, then another 3 in 4 days to close out the week.
Even the week after that is 3 games in 4 days.

I don't really have a specific player in mind when asking for more ice-time, as i think the middle-six players have all being kind of 'eased in' and they rotate at times, which has worked well. I think they've played well when playing. 4th line generally is trusted upon in many match-up's and situations, they will see the same amount of ice.

But the issue is the top-line. It's obvious that Carbery is trying to get them going. And you can't really fault him, that's nearly ~30% of our cap space tied to them. You give them every opportunity to get going. But at some point, it's time to cut the fat off. Wilson has his moments and Ovechkin has looked sluggish, but he looked better with Strome. At what point it's the time to just let Kuznetsov know that this just isn't working? He's actively even dragging down his line-mates this season. It's not long ago where he led the entire NHL in forwards ice-time and that's just plain wrong. I had hopes (once again) for him this season but this has been hot garbage all the way. He doesn't pass the eye test effort-wise. Everyone seems to follow all sorts of different advanced stats, i do too, but there are very few charts where he isn't among the worst in the NHL. We may not have a 1-on-1 replacement 1C as is, but at some point you are just going to have to look at the situation and decide that perhaps we are better off without this guy floating around for ~20 minutes a game but rather perhaps give a minute or two more collectively to couple of guys who have been producing okay, while playing better defensive hockey. It might end being that those players don't keep their very high production per 60 numbers as high, but with Kuznetsov the bar is really, really low this season.

Highlight reel from Kuznetsov, 5-on-5 (don't think i need to mention the PP):

Corsi for: 216
Corsi against: 261
Corsi: 45.28%

Goals for: 6
Goals against: 11
GF: 35.29%

Expected goals for: 9.89
Expected goals against: 13.7
xGF: 41.94%

Scoring chances for: 103
Scoring chances against: 140
Scoring chances: 42.39%

High-danger scoring chances for: 31
High-danger scoring chances against: 54
High-danger scoring: 36.47%

At some point you just need to start asking yourself... alright, nobody is going to want this guy. No matter how much we showcase him. Does he make our team better?

It's not like he's playing some brutal minutes either. He plays with good (well, away from him good) linemates and it's not like he's trusted in some great defensive role 5-on-5. These are the zone starts for centers:

Dylan Strome: 67.53% in the offensive-zone
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 66.27% in the offensive-zone
Connor McMichael: 59.26% in the offensive-zone
Hendrix Lapierre: 41.18% in the offensive-zone
Aliaksei Protas: 27.78% (!) in the offensive-zone
Nic Dowd: 7.02% (!!!) in the offensive-zone

Also to wrap up: There isn't a single line-up combination this season that have been positive in terms of goals for/against that has had Evgeny Kuznetsov in it.
You mean this guy might not be our best option at 1C getting 22 minutes a night?

Untitled.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: pman25
I’m glad for Phillips, and he clearly has made it as a NHL Player, and deserves all his chances, but he might not be in our future
He should be the 13th forward, at best.

Agree with this. Also, Lapierre played in Hershey with these guys. He is better suited to help now, and in the future as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WanderingCapsFan
So far, we seemed to produce materially more offense with Ovie passing to Strome (who’s able to find openings provided by the attention to Ovie and the clearance offered by Wilson) than we are with trying to get Kuzy to feed Ovie. Also Kuzy this year has looked more effective (or maybe just less bad) away from Ovie
 
Ovechkin just looks really bad man. I’m not much for the eye test but he can’t skate, can’t handle the puck. Not good! He’s not generating very much of anything it seems. Certainly not with Kuznetsov
 
  • Like
Reactions: Misery74
I’m glad for Phillips, and he clearly has made it as a NHL Player, and deserves all his chances, but he might not be in our future
Doubt he's in our long term plans unless there is some kind of break through. The chemistry just doesn't seem to be there. At times it seems like he gets passed over for less effective options in the transition and zone entries. He doesn't get fed the puck much in the offensive zone, even though he can shoot. Maybe it's just a matter of time for things to gel, but time might be running out with Oshie back skating again.
 
This team is winning games it shouldn’t. Much rather this than be propped up by a PP.

That said, get the PP in order, maybe we have something.
 
Protas and McMichael with as many (or more) points as Kuzy and Wilson is . . . surprising. Spence is putting Ovie, Kuzy and Wilson in a position to be our most productive forwards, and they are spitting the bit.
 
This team is winning games it shouldn’t. Much rather this than be propped up by a PP.

That said, get the PP in order, maybe we have something.

We've also lost some games we should of won...like the Sharts and Aisles games.

CC should put Strome back with Ovi. Ovi needs someone who can keep puck possession and pass to him when he's open. That's it.

Watching this team, CC is right, some of these Vets have some very bad habits.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SecretaryofDefense5
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad