Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[Calicaps]

How much do you think a 1c or a 2c costs? How many first round picks or prospects are you willing to trade for that right now? I don't see the feasibility without seriously disrupting the current retooling plans.

the current retooling plans include spending assets when the right guy is available. if a legit 1c comes available, you aren't wasting or disrupting anything. that's what the assets are for. Who cares about whether the pick you'd have selected a future 1c with is gone if you have a now and future 1c? and yes, it likely costs other assets too, but folks here were arguing to trade 2 or 3 first rounders plus other assets to trade up this year... so that's multiple picks for a potential homegrown 1c that might not play for 2 years or even could flame out and never play. so using an asset package for a proven but young guy seems entirely sensible to me. what's the diff really?

 

[twabby]

Putting the concept of leadership and intangibles aside, what do you expect from the ”big pay” of 6,5 mills?

Not being in the bottom decile of the league in terms of GAR impact would be a good start.

I'd expect a first liner for that contract and we're certainly not getting that out of Wilson since his injury. His on-ice impacts are those of a replacement level 4th liner since then.

 

[Roshi]

Not being in the bottom decile of the league in terms of GAR impact would be a good start.

I'd expect a first liner for that contract and we're certainly not getting that out of Wilson since his injury. His on-ice impacts are those of a replacement level 4th liner since then.

Id say guys you are comparing him are 9-10 millions players.

6,5 mills is a good middle sixer. Maybe a third wheel in first line. Which Wilson did fine with Ovie-Strome combo.

 

[zappa4ever]

///... His on-ice impacts are those of a replacement level 4th liner since then.

Curious...

What numbers do you consider to be a replacement level 4th liner?

What numbers do you consider to be a top 4th liner?

 

[HTFN]

So what's the dollar value on the leadership he brings? Clearly there is some number where it's not worth it, even for you. I'm saying it's far less than $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him last summer.

Again, Wilson has the exact same stat line as Kuznetsov: 3 goals, 5 assists, -2 in 14 games. Re-read the last paragraph and try to apply it to Kuznetsov and perhaps you will realize why I simply can't agree that the trend is fine for Wilson. He's bringing the same impact and results as Kuznetsov, except they just look a little bit different in doing so.

Let me get this straight:

Your counter-argument for the value of leadership is that Evgeny Kuznetsov has as many points and impact stats as Tom Wilson, as though I'm supposed to see the comparison and go "well we're not super satisfied with Kuznetsov so we shouldn't be with Wilson either" despite being a more vocal leadership figure and being paid less to the tune of ~3m...

That's your argument?

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Tom Wilson is a pillar of our franchise...

 

[Calicaps]

You can have all the talent in the world - budding stars from high picks, with more top prospects on the way. However, if you’ve been tanking and rebuilding for a while, it breeds a culture of losing that can be hard to shake.

Just take a look at the Sabres or the Sens - every fall they proclaim “this is the year!” and it never pans out. They just don’t know how to win yet, as corny as that sounds. Took the Devils, with all that talent, a while to start putting it together.

So, a Tom Wilson that maintains a standard of excellence, and brings a winning culture into the next era, can provide a lot of value. It’s just not necessarily quantifiable on a spreadsheet, which I know is aggravating for some.

That said, I do appreciate that they may have missed a great chance to flip Tom for assets. Time will tell whether that was the right move. But, keeping “winners” like Wilson could help prevent endless rebuilds like the Sabres, and Sens situations.

This is so important. And yes, it's possible that resigning him will end up being a mistake, though I doubt it for this exact reason.

I think a lot of folks here just don't have experience with the Caps being that kind of loser franchise. If they did, the colossal freak-out here when the team fell short last year would have been far more subdued.

Sure, people remember the heartbreak of multiple 2nd round losses during Ovie's tenure, but that's not the same thing as the experience of Caps fans during the team's first 3 decades-plus. Being a team that everyone KNOWS doesn't have what it takes--doesn't even know what it takes--is so different.

You mentioned the Devs, and I immediately thought how different they are than the Sens and Sabres (add in the Sharks too) and how totally it makes sense that they pulled themselves together first. That franchise, for all of its recent struggles, knows what winning looks like. In and around that organization, there are people who know and who understood what was needed. Even Daneko in the booth for them every game has the cred.

The importance of keeping that knowledge and culture in the organization and in the room can hardly be overstated as the roster turns over and the team heads into a new and uncertain era, one not defined by Ovie's singular greatness.

 

[Misery74]

Not being in the bottom decile of the league in terms of GAR impact would be a good start.

I'd expect a first liner for that contract and we're certainly not getting that out of Wilson since his injury. His on-ice impacts are those of a replacement level 4th liner since then.

Really, what are Ovechkins on ice impacts? I can’t imagine they are very good.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is so important. And yes, it's possible that resigning him will end up being a mistake, though I doubt it for this exact reason.

I think a lot of folks here just don't have experience with the Caps being that kind of loser franchise. If they did, the colossal freak-out here when the team fell short last year would have been far more subdued.

Sure, people remember the heartbreak of multiple 2nd round losses during Ovie's tenure, but that's not the same thing as the experience of Caps fans during the team's first 3 decades-plus. Being a team that everyone KNOWS doesn't have what it takes--doesn't even know what it takes--is so different.

You mentioned the Devs, and I immediately thought how different they are than the Sens and Sabres (add in the Sharks too) and how totally it makes sense that they pulled themselves together first. That franchise, for all of its recent struggles, knows what winning looks like. In and around that organization, there are people who know and who understood what was needed. Even Daneko in the booth for them every game has the cred.

The importance of keeping that knowledge and culture in the organization and in the room can hardly be overstated as the roster turns over and the team heads into a new and uncertain era, one not defined by Ovie's singular greatness.

you just made me envision Tom Wilson doing the Caps color commentary, replacing Locker someday lol….

 

[Calicaps]

you just made me envision Tom Wilson doing the Caps color commentary, replacing Locker someday lol….

here for it

 

[pman25]

I think Tom Wilson displays rather poor on ice leadership more often than not because of his tendency to take stupid penalties that hurt the team. Or starting a fight when we’re losing bad. Those are crybaby qualities in my opinion and someone not in control of their emotions.

But what I think doesn’t seem to matter, the guys love him

 

[traparatus]

This is so important. And yes, it's possible that resigning him will end up being a mistake, though I doubt it for this exact reason.

I think a lot of folks here just don't have experience with the Caps being that kind of loser franchise. If they did, the colossal freak-out here when the team fell short last year would have been far more subdued.

Sure, people remember the heartbreak of multiple 2nd round losses during Ovie's tenure, but that's not the same thing as the experience of Caps fans during the team's first 3 decades-plus. Being a team that everyone KNOWS doesn't have what it takes--doesn't even know what it takes--is so different.

You mentioned the Devs, and I immediately thought how different they are than the Sens and Sabres (add in the Sharks too) and how totally it makes sense that they pulled themselves together first. That franchise, for all of its recent struggles, knows what winning looks like. In and around that organization, there are people who know and who understood what was needed. Even Daneko in the booth for them every game has the cred.

The importance of keeping that knowledge and culture in the organization and in the room can hardly be overstated as the roster turns over and the team heads into a new and uncertain era, one not defined by Ovie's singular greatness.

It doesn't always work the way it worked for the Devils. Take Edmonton, Detroit, Colorado. These teams have won more than just about anybody. They all emphasized continuity and keeping people around the organization that understand what's needed to win. Edmonton dipped into that well so much that in the early-mid 2010s their whole organization was swarming with people who knew how to win. Their whole recruitment strategy was based around that criteria.

I wouldn't judge Sharks yet. Sharks have been to 11 playoff series in the last 10 years. Devils have been to 3, two of them last year. It's not a shocker that Devils rebuild is further along.

 

[twabby]

Really, what are Ovechkins on ice impacts? I can’t imagine they are very good.

They aren't. He's been bad.

I love Ovechkin, but if someone makes the claim he's not playing well I'm not going to disagree.

 

[twabby]

Let me get this straight:

Your counter-argument for the value of leadership is that Evgeny Kuznetsov has as many points and impact stats as Tom Wilson, as though I'm supposed to see the comparison and go "well we're not super satisfied with Kuznetsov so we shouldn't be with Wilson either" despite being a more vocal leadership figure and being paid less to the tune of ~3m...

That's your argument?

No I'm saying both have similar on-ice impacts: replacement level.

That means that if Wilson continues his current level of play on the ice then his intangibles alone need to be worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant asset last summer.

I don't think his intangibles alone are worth that much, so if he wants to be worth the contract he signed he needs to perform much better on the ice.

 

[alphabetical]

the current retooling plans include spending assets when the right guy is available. if a legit 1c comes available, you aren't wasting or disrupting anything. that's what the assets are for. Who cares about whether the pick you'd have selected a future 1c with is gone if you have a now and future 1c? and yes, it likely costs other assets too, but folks here were arguing to trade 2 or 3 first rounders plus other assets to trade up this year... so that's multiple picks for a potential homegrown 1c that might not play for 2 years or even could flame out and never play. so using an asset package for a proven but young guy seems entirely sensible to me. what's the diff really?

A low end 1C would cost what? 2 firsts and a top tier prospect? And then mcmichael is stuck at 3C for the rest of strome's contract? Is that really what you want the caps to do?

And hell, if you're going to go after something big through trade, it really needs to be a defender because the caps have nothing to replace Carlson's load as he continues to age. Or just draft a good defender in this year's draft, which supposedly has a few of them. But that's probably too slow for you.

And I don't give a single f**k about who on these boards was willing to trade multiple first round picks to move up in the first round. That's not relevant to this conversation.

 

[PlushMinus]

Mantha and TvR back. Edmundson sounds like he's back soon. Feverbaby at least is skating. Would love to see Lapierre at 3C for a game if Kuzy can't go.

Hopefully Kuzy's illness is that he's as sick of himself as the rest of us!

I expect I'm not the only one here who is dubious about Kuemper's return to net and what that's going to look like.

 

[Calicaps]

It doesn't always work the way it worked for the Devils. Take Edmonton, Detroit, Colorado. These teams have won more than just about anybody. They all emphasized continuity and keeping people around the organization that understand what's needed to win. Edmonton dipped into that well so much that in the early-mid 2010s their whole organization was swarming with people who knew how to win. Their whole recruitment strategy was based around that criteria.

I wouldn't judge Sharks yet. Sharks have been to 11 playoff series in the last 10 years. Devils have been to 3, two of them last year. It's not a shocker that Devils rebuild is further along.

Right. But the Sharks, like the Sabres, Caps, and Blues before them, couldn't get over the hump. One failed SCF appearance in how many years of existence? The Devils struggled but they've won multiple Cups and been to other finals as well. That they were up and down for a decade doesn't change the fact their a championship franchise.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Wilson is the type of player teams, and other players, plan around. No fancystat can measure that.

As for in opportune fights and whatnot, his teammates all appreciate that, something that, again, cannot be measured by a fancystat.

 

[alphabetical]

At least one…..

And how many do you want to trade right now? It sounds like 2-3 first round picks/top prospects to trade for a center.

 

[traparatus]

Right. But the Sharks, like the Sabres, Caps, and Blues before them, couldn't get over the hump. One failed SCF appearance in how many years of existence? The Devils struggled but they've won multiple Cups and been to other finals as well. That they were up and down for a decade doesn't change the fact their a championship franchise.

I'm just saying that being a championship franchise doesn't mean that your team now has the key to fast rebuilds. There are plenty of examples of winning franchises who prioritize continuity, leadership, winning pedigree and take forever to rebuild, including having to go through multiple iterations of the same rebuild.

There are also examples of teams over-emphasizing continuity and leadership. Detroit, for example, really doubled down on maintaining continuity. It worked in the sense that they won more games than a typical rebuilding team for a while. It also kept them out of the top of the draft and added years to their rebuild. So now Dylan Larkin is quite possibly a better leader because of this but he is also 27, hasn't been to the playoffs and is on a large contract.

 

[Calicaps]

And how many do you want to trade right now? It sounds like 2-3 first round picks/top prospects to trade for a center.

I agree that this hypothetical stawplayer is probably too expensive and the Caps should not trade for him. But remind me, what did Vegas ultimately pay for Eichel? (sincerely asking) Was it worth it? (I'd say yes.) And how did it compare to the prognostications about his price. (IIRC, people thought he'd cost far more.)

When and if an actual player is available, the circumstances will dictate the price and the Caps will make a judgement on the value then.

As I said in another post, there's only 3 ways to acquire players. The Caps have accumulated assets and soon cap room so they can avail themselves of all 3 options, as conditions warrant. That seems like pretty good asset management to me.

I'm just saying that being a championship franchise doesn't mean that your team now has the key to fast rebuilds. There are plenty of examples of winning franchises who prioritize continuity, leadership, winning pedigree and take forever to rebuild, including having to go through multiple iterations of the same rebuild.

There are also examples of teams over-emphasizing continuity and leadership. Detroit, for example, really doubled down on maintaining continuity. It worked in the sense that they won more games than a typical rebuilding team for a while. It also kept them out of the top of the draft and added years to their rebuild. So now Dylan Larkin is quite possibly a better leader because of this but he is also 27, hasn't been to the playoffs and is on a large contract.

True. Nothing is perfect. But I guess I think it's better to keep a guy who's been there around than not. If Tom Wilson's deal makes the Caps a tweener with no good draft picks for the next decade, I'll have been wrong.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We are such a different team with Backstrom not playing. I have to rethink the plans. Never I thought i could be talked into being a buyer this season. And im still prolly stand pat.

 

[bacchist]

We should still be sellers. We've had a few lucky games, but the team is still the one we saw in October

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We should still be sellers. We've had a few lucky games, but the team is still the one we saw in October

But not at all. Our worst player retired and we gained 9mill in cap space. Our record without NB19 the last 2 seasons has been very good.

 

[bacchist]

But not at all. Our worst player retired and we gained 9mill in cap space. Our record without NB19 the last 2 seasons has been very good.

None of that is relevant. The team isn't very good. There is a lot of underlying weakness, even in the games we've won recently. I don't expect this team to make the playoffs.