twabby
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GAR has Wilson as a net negative on the PK so far, so I can't really agree he's been strong on the PK. Beck Malenstyn has been the true PK star so far, along with Dowd since his return from injury.
Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition
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GAR has Wilson as a net negative on the PK so far, so I can't really agree he's been strong on the PK. Beck Malenstyn has been the true PK star so far, along with Dowd since his return from injury.
CapitalsCupReality
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HTFN
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Oh well f*** me, GAR didn't immediately clear him? Better ignore everything we know about the guy then, and just assume he's cooked forever.
What the f*** makes you think that way right now, in 2023 even when you've been fed your fair share of crow in the years prior?
edit: is it really just your refusal to acknowledge the crow?
Calicaps
NFA
Fair enough.
It's true, nothing is certain. Picks, trades, and UFAs can all fail. But that's true no matter what. They were a player or two away from contention for a decade. They'd drafted and developed a 1D and a 1C but they didn't have all the pieces.
Toronto and the Oil both have great offensive talents but haven't picked/drafted/signed the right guys around them.
Ultimately, there's only 3 ways to acquire new players. The Caps are well positioned to leverage all 3 of them and surely will do their best. What else can you ask right now?
Now if you think their prospect and pro talent evaluation is so poor as to guarantee they won't be able to take advantage of those resources, that's a different matter...
Chokingdogs
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GAR? Isn’t that a fish?
I’d love for some fancy statter to make a fancy stat that tracks fancy stats, in terms of its overall accuracy.
I’d love for some fancy statter to make a fancy stat that tracks fancy stats, in terms of its overall accuracy.
HTFN
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Proven young D don't just shake themselves off the vine, nobody is trading those without incentive.
It virtually always has to be an underperforming piece you think you can give opportunity, a salary crunch, or an uncut gem people are looking over for ____ reason. There was probably a point where Orlov was one of those for us, and nothing short of extreme overpayment was going to dislodge a piece like that when the team needed him even when he was a pizza artist.
Sandin is one of those in his own right, it's not like he's a strong pedigree top pairing player by default. Nobody's giving up on guys until it's advantageous to do so, so you either overpay or you take a risk on half-cooked goods hoping you can turn them back into most of what they were projected to be.
Who is the last genuine (if iffy) 1D to be traded? I wanted to say Pietrangelo but he was actually just signed after the Blues took his spot with Krug... If it's Karlsson, well, that's your package... is it worth it? Can't say it is from this franchise's shoes.
Proven young D doesn't mean much of anything unless the "proof" is already a franchise level 1D, and like... you see anybody shopping Makar and Hughes?
Caps D consists of Carlson (who is in the late stage of his career probably) and a bunch of guys who aren't above #4 individually most probably.
Centers depth is less grim, but long-term D is depleted. Iorio and Chesley could be good, or could be also not better than #4.
You can't fix that without trades especially if you think that in 2-3 years team should be ready to make some noise in playoffs.
Centers depth is less grim, but long-term D is depleted. Iorio and Chesley could be good, or could be also not better than #4.
You can't fix that without trades especially if you think that in 2-3 years team should be ready to make some noise in playoffs.
PlushMinus
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You're not alone, it's just not worth voicing a (contrary) opinion around here when it comes to Wilson.
Some players here are untouchable. Oshie was one of them a year ago. Now more and more people want him benched, traded, bought out. Will be interesting to see how many years it is before Wilson becomes that guy. I give it a couple.
How much do you think a 1c or a 2c costs? How many first round picks or prospects are you willing to trade for that right now? I don't see the feasibility without seriously disrupting the current retooling plans.
That's the big question. Can you draft major core pieces outside of the very top of the draft? If not, can you trade for them?
It's hard to find an example of a team moving from one competitive era to the next without bottoming out AND getting exceptional picks in the draft. I don't think that any NHL franchise is eager to bottom out but it seems like all of them end up doing it. Unless, of course, there is some example that I'm simply forgetting.
twabby
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How can you confidently project Tom Wilson post-injury? ACL tear recovery has better results than in the past but it's still a significant injury for a guy entering his 30s. What has he shown since his injury to indicate he's going to turn it around? Maybe this is just who he is going forward. Wouldn't be the first player to fall off at age 29-30.
I'm not saying he's cooked forever but I am saying the trend isn't good. And I think chalking it up to Kuznetsov stinking isn't convincing. I'd also hope a player who just signed a $45.5 million contract would be able to elevate his teammates rather than being wholly dependent on them.
HTFN
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Until you recognize some semblance of value for the locker room we simply won’t be having this conversation in good faith or equal footing. Write it off all you want but isn’t nothing, I’m not going to bother justifying the entire term and value on your metrics alone.
Again, 8 points in 14 games isn’t floundering out there, the trend is fine unless you’re so up expected stats you can’t appreciate what’s actually happened.
PlushMinus
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It also sounds like something a Scotsman might say.
"GAR! Check out the fancy stats on that lass!"
You can have all the talent in the world - budding stars from high picks, with more top prospects on the way. However, if you’ve been tanking and rebuilding for a while, it breeds a culture of losing that can be hard to shake.
Just take a look at the Sabres or the Sens - every fall they proclaim “this is the year!” and it never pans out. They just don’t know how to win yet, as corny as that sounds. Took the Devils, with all that talent, a while to start putting it together.
So, a Tom Wilson that maintains a standard of excellence, and brings a winning culture into the next era, can provide a lot of value. It’s just not necessarily quantifiable on a spreadsheet, which I know is aggravating for some.
That said, I do appreciate that they may have missed a great chance to flip Tom for assets. Time will tell whether that was the right move. But, keeping “winners” like Wilson could help prevent endless rebuilds like the Sabres, and Sens situations.
Just take a look at the Sabres or the Sens - every fall they proclaim “this is the year!” and it never pans out. They just don’t know how to win yet, as corny as that sounds. Took the Devils, with all that talent, a while to start putting it together.
So, a Tom Wilson that maintains a standard of excellence, and brings a winning culture into the next era, can provide a lot of value. It’s just not necessarily quantifiable on a spreadsheet, which I know is aggravating for some.
That said, I do appreciate that they may have missed a great chance to flip Tom for assets. Time will tell whether that was the right move. But, keeping “winners” like Wilson could help prevent endless rebuilds like the Sabres, and Sens situations.
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I really like that the team plays competive hockey still and its nice when guys like Leonard, Cristall Miro etc. enters the team they enter a team that still plays hockey at a good level. Hopefully some of them pans out as 1st line options. Caps are this year bringing 4 solid lines and thats the strength of this team. The guys coming from Hershey like NAK and Malenstyn all look solid and are hard to play against.
Theres no line where the opponent can feast and destroy this team. We wont have any 100 point + players this year, but the depth in this group is good.
Playing 4 bottom 10 teams in point percentage in the next four games. Edmonton have started winning again, but Caps should get some points in those games.
Theres no line where the opponent can feast and destroy this team. We wont have any 100 point + players this year, but the depth in this group is good.
Playing 4 bottom 10 teams in point percentage in the next four games. Edmonton have started winning again, but Caps should get some points in those games.
CapitalsCupReality
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twabby
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So what's the dollar value on the leadership he brings? Clearly there is some number where it's not worth it, even for you. I'm saying it's far less than $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him last summer.
Again, Wilson has the exact same stat line as Kuznetsov: 3 goals, 5 assists, -2 in 14 games. Re-read the last paragraph and try to apply it to Kuznetsov and perhaps you will realize why I simply can't agree that the trend is fine for Wilson. He's bringing the same impact and results as Kuznetsov, except they just look a little bit different in doing so.
g00n
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Why are you citing GAR in a discussion mostly about leadership value?
Why does there need to be an exact dollar value?
Can you put a dollar value on the worth of your family? Does that mean they're worthless?
What is the FAR* score for your parents?
*"Family Over Replacement"
Putting the concept of leadership and intangibles aside, what do you expect from the ”big pay” of 6,5 mills?
Willy is on pace for around 50 points with basically no PP time (ok, has little), while the whole team is struggling to score. Adjust that with Oshies PP minutes and a bit of puck luck and you’ll possibly have a 60-70 point player. Thats pretty spot on value for his cap id figure. Atleast comparing league wise.
And then count in the leadership and ingangibles.
Willy is on pace for around 50 points with basically no PP time (ok, has little), while the whole team is struggling to score. Adjust that with Oshies PP minutes and a bit of puck luck and you’ll possibly have a 60-70 point player. Thats pretty spot on value for his cap id figure. Atleast comparing league wise.
And then count in the leadership and ingangibles.
zappa4ever
Music is the Best!
Willy leads in:
xLeadership/60
xIntangibles/60
Leadership over Replacement
xSticksOnButt/pregame
xChestBumps/hallway
xPuppyPicsOnSocialMedia
xLeastLikelyToGoBald/career
xRyanReavesOverpaymentContracts
xLeadership/60
xIntangibles/60
Leadership over Replacement
xSticksOnButt/pregame
xChestBumps/hallway
xPuppyPicsOnSocialMedia
xLeastLikelyToGoBald/career
xRyanReavesOverpaymentContracts
g00n
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We can disagree with the points made in posts but please don't attack each other personally. No need for name calling or personal attacks / insults.
CapitalsCupReality
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Mantha and TvR back. Edmundson sounds like he's back soon. Feverbaby at least is skating. Would love to see Lapierre at 3C for a game if Kuzy can't go.
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