Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[pman25]

Once our finishing improves, the apples should go up across the board.

We are unlucky right now, that much is true. But also wonder if the finishing talent just isn’t quite there anymore as well.

No one wants to score anymore

 

[HTFN]

I think if they wanted someone to show Ryan Leonard and other youngsters the ropes they could have signed some veteran UFA for cheap.

After declining to trade him and instead signing him to a 7 x $6.5 million contract starting next year, Wilson needs to have a strong positive on-ice impact to make it worth it. Right now he's playing like a 4th liner.

Another lesson in why you suck at that part of team building. Cheap veteran UFAs that are on a recycle tour don't embody multiple eras of the team you were drafted to, don't know the room or what the team culture is "supposed to" be like, and are usually out for their last contract years more than building anything significant.

How many examples of this are you even capable of citing where that worked? Signing Wayne Simmonds didn't do shit for Toronto, for example, it needs to be a tenured player to say "no this is what we expect and this is how we play" and that can't just come from any old asshole signed in the summer because they don't know the room either. Hell, I was even the one arguing this point for Gudbranson in Calgary a year or two ago against you, and he's one of the only ones I can think of that didn't tank in team performance and might have helped hold the room for one extra year, and yet... in the end Calgary exploded anyway because he's just a guy.

Orpik wasn't that right away but he also signed to like... 4-5 years so it wasn't really a cheap UFA signing and by the end he was batya. Wilson's been here his whole career, seen the different phases of the franchise, won (which is important) with them, and seems to lead well enough to know how to bridge the gap between an old man Ovechkin that looks like a f***ing mythological being in hockey terms and, while lovable, may not be approachable or understandable in the way that world-class all-time talents sometimes can't explain how to do what they do. Wilson's not that guy, and I think he's the guy to make the transition work for these young guys because he's got clout of his own in that room.

 

[g00n]

Wait, are we for or against dumpster diving UFAs to "mentor" during a rebuild of youth and speed? I thought useless players were frowned upon as hogging roster/contract space just as much as cap space, which impedes the charge of the young brigade.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Won't show up on the stat sheet, but I want Wilson to be for Leonard like what Oshie was (sort of) for Wilson.

Teams still need leaders and Wilson's a good one, I'd prefer to keep him as a hard playing, tough, approachable big brother/father for the kids than punt for assets or because of his "cup window".

Orpiks win cups too

Totally this….and he plays like a mini more skilled Wilson or Oshie….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Folks...more and more people are saying this!

You wanna listen to the guy pumping Ovechkin back to Russia early and quitting the NHL? lol…

 

[twabby]

I'm just saying Wilson should start playing better. I'm sorry I believe a 7 x $6.5 million contract should provide more than just leadership, especially when he did have a ton of trade value this past summer. Maybe I'm alone in this wild concept of expecting expensive players to have an impact on the ice.

Last year was a mulligan because of the ACL recovery. But it's been 18 months since he got injured. No more excuses for the poor play.

 

[Raikkonen]

They are soon to be left without Ovi and Carlson. No 1C, no 1D. Honestly, what kind of D do they have in 2 years? Do you see top-2 D in the system?

While Wilson is good to have he could be the best asset to trade too.

PS: Carlson can play longer than 2 years ofc, but he's playing a lot of minutes, and will be even older.

 

[HTFN]

I'm just saying Wilson should start playing better. I'm sorry I believe a 7 x $6.5 million contract should provide more than just leadership, especially when he did have a ton of trade value this past summer. Maybe I'm alone in this wild concept of expecting expensive players to have an impact on the ice.

Last year was a mulligan because of the ACL recovery. But it's been 18 months since he got injured. No more excuses for the poor play.

No, that's not what you're saying. This is what you said:

I think if they wanted someone to show Ryan Leonard and other youngsters the ropes they could have signed some veteran UFA for cheap.

and you can't have it both ways in the context of this discussion.

"Wilson should produce more for his contract" and "they can sign a UFA to do leadership" are two entirely different conversations to have. Stone cold bullshit to try to walk that one back.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Another lesson in why you suck at that part of team building. Cheap veteran UFAs that are on a recycle tour don't embody multiple eras of the team you were drafted to, don't know the room or what the team culture is "supposed to" be like, and are usually out for their last contract years more than building anything significant.

How many examples of this are you even capable of citing where that worked? Signing Wayne Simmonds didn't do shit for Toronto, for example, it needs to be a tenured player to say "no this is what we expect and this is how we play" and that can't just come from any old asshole signed in the summer because they don't know the room either. Hell, I was even the one arguing this point for Gudbranson in Calgary a year or two ago against you, and he's one of the only ones I can think of that didn't tank in team performance and might have helped hold the room for one extra year, and yet... in the end Calgary exploded anyway because he's just a guy.

Orpik wasn't that right away but he also signed to like... 4-5 years so it wasn't really a cheap UFA signing and by the end he was batya. Wilson's been here his whole career, seen the different phases of the franchise, won (which is important) with them, and seems to lead well enough to know how to bridge the gap between an old man Ovechkin that looks like a f***ing mythological being in hockey terms and, while lovable, may not be approachable or understandable in the way that world-class all-time talents sometimes can't explain how to do what they do. Wilson's not that guy, and I think he's the guy to make the transition work for these young guys because he's got clout of his own in that room.

Jason Christ!

 

[traparatus]

Wilson's play is surprising this season. I didn't like the new contract but that has to do with trade value and future performance. I fully expected him to be full value in terms of on-ice performance for a few years.

One thing that stands out when browsing through stats is that Wilson/Ovechkin really turn into a pumpkin when not paired with Strome. In 73 minutes with Strome Ovechkin/Wilson have xGF% of 63. In 51 minutes without Strome, they are at a bloodcurdling 18% xGF%.

Draw what conclusions you will. It's a relatively small sample size and there is the issue of who Wilson and/or Ovechkin are playing with when they are not playing with Strome.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Bringing in vets to set the tone in the room didn't work out that well for this team - including some still on this roster - in the past. Jeff Friesen? Feds was perhaps the best and maybe the only such acquisition I can think of over the past couple of decades. I wasn't supportive of the amt & term of Willie's deal, but there's something to be said for continuity over bringing in guys who may know a room in a generic sense but don't know the Caps' room.

 

[twabby]

No, that's not what you're saying. This is what you said:

and you can't have it both ways in the context of this discussion.

"Wilson should produce more for his contract" and "they can sign a UFA to do leadership" are two entirely different conversations to have. Stone cold bullshit to try to walk that one back.

Yeah I'm saying he should play better because all he's providing right now is leadership and that doesn't cost $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset. And if you do believe that leadership alone is worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset, then I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

On an unrelated note I'm going to go check out Quinton Byfield's stats and impacts this year.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I will quote AlexBro from GDT


When I read this I think they should at least consider trading Wilson I dont see timing being a match for Wilson in the next cup window.

You might be right. The prudent use of assets would be to trade Wilson if they don’t think he helps them get to a Stanley Cup but I think they see him as a future captain and his contract should be less worrisome given all of the young talent coming up plus the cap rising. I personally love the way Tom plays and I’d like to see him back with Strome because those two looked good together last year. Without any additions, like to see:

Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson
Milano-McMichael-Mantha
Protas-Kuznetsov-Phillips
Malenstyn-Dowd-NAK

Ideally they can get out from Kuznetsov’s contract this summer. McMichael’s emergence is a really big deal for them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm just saying Wilson should start playing better. I'm sorry I believe a 7 x $6.5 million contract should provide more than just leadership, especially when he did have a ton of trade value this past summer. Maybe I'm alone in this wild concept of expecting expensive players to have an impact on the ice.

Last year was a mulligan because of the ACL recovery. But it's been 18 months since he got injured. No more excuses for the poor play.

We all expect him to provide more…but he’s not even playing on that contract. Get rid of shit brick 92 and give the guy a legit 1c then watch him contribute more.

 

[Raikkonen]

We all expect him to provide more…but he’s not even playing on that contract. Get rid of shit brick 92 and give the guy a legit 1c then watch him contribute more.

Where do we get legit 1c though?

 

[HTFN]

Yeah I'm saying he should play better because all he's providing right now is leadership and that doesn't cost $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset. And if you do believe that leadership alone is worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset, then I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

On an unrelated note I'm going to go check out Quinton Byfield's stats and impacts this year.

Way to completely and totally ignore the second quote so you can grind your axe.

Signing "a veteran UFA" just to lead some youth is not the same as retaining a tenured and respected team leader, and I think a big part of you knows that and isn't willing to engage with the idea as a result.

I already pretty explicitly stated that "Wilson needs to produce on his contract" and "sign any old veteran UFA if you want to get Leonard a mentor" are f***ing wildly different conversations to be having, and you pretty much skimmed over all that to place in my mouth that "leadership alone is worth 45.5 over 7" which is not the same at all.

And then, guy's still got 8 points in 14 games which is... not bad, so this is really just you repeatedly coming back to beating the "TRADE WILSON BECAUSE EVERYONE IS STUPID" message and a blatant refusal to give any value to off-ice contribution and the continuity of the franchise.

 

[Raikkonen]

Someone is on my ignore list I guess, someone youre talking with about Wilson.

 

[twabby]

Way to completely and totally ignore the second quote so you can grind your axe.

Signing "a veteran UFA" just to lead some youth is not the same as retaining a tenured and respected team leader, and I think a big part of you knows that and isn't willing to engage with the idea as a result.

I already pretty explicitly stated that "Wilson needs to produce on his contract" and "sign any old veteran UFA if you want to get Leonard a mentor" are f***ing wildly different conversations to be having, and you pretty much skimmed over all that to place in my mouth that "leadership alone is worth 45.5 over 7" which is not the same at all.

And then, guy's still got 8 points in 14 games which is... not bad, so this is really just you repeatedly coming back to beating the "TRADE WILSON BECAUSE EVERYONE IS STUPID" message and a blatant refusal to give any value to off-ice contribution and the continuity of the franchise.

I'm willing to entertain the idea that Wilson is a better option for leadership than what is available on the market. I am not willing to entertain the idea that this is worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset last summer.

I don't care about points when his impacts on team-level results are in the toilet. He's a 5th-10th percentile in the league player right now. Kuznetsov has the same stat line as Wilson (3+5) but we're all able to understand he is a net negative.

 

[Calicaps]

They are soon to be left without Ovi and Carlson. No 1C, no 1D. Honestly, what kind of D do they have in 2 years? Do you see top-2 D in the system?

While Wilson is good to have he could be the best asset to trade too.

PS: Carlson can play longer than 2 years ofc, but he's playing a lot of minutes, and will be even older.

Is this a joke?

At the end of THIS SEASON, they will have in the neighborhood of $14M in cap room. For 25-26, they will have roughly $46M in cap space, and something stupid, like $75M the year after that. There's zero dead cap space in all of that too. Furthermore, over the next 3 offseasons, they have 7 picks in the first 2 rounds as well as a stable of good prospects on ELCs.

Yes, they have some RFAs to sign next offseason, but they will have plenty of money and assets over next couple of years to fill holes in all the ways: with young homegrown talent, UFAs, and trades.

This didn't happen by accident. There's a plan, and it involves lesser pain now so that with any luck at all, we're not San Jose three years from now.

Step back from the ledge, my friend.

 

[Calicaps]

Yeah I'm saying he should play better because all he's providing right now is leadership and that doesn't cost $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset. And if you do believe that leadership alone is worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset, then I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

On an unrelated note I'm going to go check out Quinton Byfield's stats and impacts this year.

LOL. The whole team is, you know, scoring at a historically low pace. You're just picking on Wilson because you wanted him traded before. He's been strong on the pk and in other areas.

You once said you learned the Orpik lesson, but you've forgotten it. This is the same thing, but better because Wilson already has cred in the room. In the article that was posted in the Backstrom thread, Wilson actually talks about what 19's leadership means, not just in terms of being an amazing talent on the ice, but in terms of how to be a pro, how to be a Washington Capital, what it takes to earn a spot in that room. Wilson has learned those lessons from great leaders. That's got a ton of value.

Also, the "mulligan" comment was a nice subtle little dig, as if he just f***ed up and got a do-over instead of destroying a knee.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Bringing in vets to set the tone in the room didn't work out that well for this team - including some still on this roster - in the past. Jeff Friesen? Feds was perhaps the best and maybe the only such acquisition I can think of over the past couple of decades. I wasn't supportive of the amt & term of Willie's deal, but there's something to be said for continuity over bringing in guys who may know a room in a generic sense but don't know the Caps' room.

Friesen didn’t do squat here, relatively speaking. IIRC he was one of makfi’s patented “trade a 3rd for a guy, then trade him later for a second and rejoice” moves. Zednik was another, as was the gold chain sporting dude from Toronto, berezin maybe?

 

[HTFN]

I'm willing to entertain the idea that Wilson is a better option for leadership than what is available on the market. I am not willing to entertain the idea that this is worth $45.5 million over 7 years plus the opportunity cost of not trading him for a significant positive asset last summer.

I don't care about points when his impacts on team-level results are in the toilet. He's a 5th-10th percentile in the league player right now. Kuznetsov has the same stat line as Wilson (3+5) but we're all able to understand he is a net negative.

And who does Wilson keep getting stuck with in the recent games? f***ing Kuznetsov.

So don't talk to me about impacts until you're willing or even remotely able to actually isolate them, because as has been posted before, Ovechkin and Wilson with Strome do markedly better in virtually every category.

Maybe Wilson's not the problem, not that he ever was.

Is this a joke?

At the end of THIS SEASON, they will have in the neighborhood of $14M in cap room. For 25-26, they will have roughly $46M in cap space, and something stupid, like $75M the year after that. There's zero dead cap space in all of that too. Furthermore, over the next 3 offseasons, they have 7 picks in the first 2 rounds as well as a stable of good prospects on ETCs.

Yes, they have some RFAs to sign next offseason, but they will have plenty of money and assets over next couple of years to fill holes in all the ways: with young homegrown talent, UFAs, and trades.

This didn't happen by accident. There's a plan, and it involves lesser pain now so that with any luck at all, we're not San Jose three years from now.

Step back from the ledge, my friend.

This is literally the end of the 3-5 year window that I was arguing with @Hivemind over like two or three years ago.

By playing it relatively cautious they've avoided any "you need to buy now and compete" contracts and managed to carve themselves a new window to compete without having to entirely rebuild. Yes, picks still have to pan out, but this is a much more preferable alternative than selling out and rebuilding from the ground up

 

[twabby]

And who does Wilson keep getting stuck with in the recent games? f***ing Kuznetsov.

So don't talk to me about impacts until you're willing or even remotely able to actually isolate them, because as has been posted before, Ovechkin and Wilson with Strome do markedly better in virtually every category.

Maybe Wilson's not the problem, not that he ever was.

As mentioned numerous times before, GAR does isolate impacts.

 

[Raikkonen]

Is this a joke?

At the end of THIS SEASON, they will have in the neighborhood of $14M in cap room. For 25-26, they will have roughly $46M in cap space, and something stupid, like $75M the year after that. There's zero dead cap space in all of that too. Furthermore, over the next 3 offseasons, they have 7 picks in the first 2 rounds as well as a stable of good prospects on ELCs.

Yes, they have some RFAs to sign next offseason, but they will have plenty of money and assets over next couple of years to fill holes in all the ways: with young homegrown talent, UFAs, and trades.

This didn't happen by accident. There's a plan, and it involves lesser pain now so that with any luck at all, we're not San Jose three years from now.

Step back from the ledge, my friend.

Yes and no.

Last two big trades got Caps Mantha and Sandin. That's #1 pick for each btw.

So having picks and cap space doesn't mean you will get 1C or 1D.

1st round pick doesnt automatically mean it will be a good player too.

Also D needs time to mature. So trading valuable asset for proven young D is a good alternative way to boost your D core.

PS: Im not near any ledges fortunately. Absolutely relaxed, just trying to add to the discussion.

 

[HTFN]

As mentioned numerous times before, GAR does isolate impacts.

And as we've covered so, so many times, there's not a perfect formula for that in a constantly moving sport. Isolated stats are arguably helpful with the right context but you seriously can't isolate an impact of one player on a line because, get this, if one player does something weird you have to reposition to cover them on the fly and there's nothing in even the adjusted stats to recognize a player being "out of position" on purpose to cover a f***wit.

This isn't baseball, and that will likely be a popular refrain for basically ever. f*** me if I don't trust it on numbers alone, but I don't, I've seen enough of each player's individual understanding of defense and responsibility to know who the problem is and it's not Wilson.

Genuinely can't believe the rate at which you lean on a garbage ideology to cling to stats regardless when we both know we're watching the games.

Still absolutely nothing to address how good he is for the room, because again, I think we both know you can't. Couldn't do it with Orpik, can't do it here. The minute you finally recognize that not everything shows up on a stat sheet is the moment a handful of posters take you a lot more seriously, and it's right f***ing there for you but you fight at every turn.