Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[bacchist]

Way to be “half full”, my man!

I will put the rose colored glasses on when we're on track to make the playoffs.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I will put the rose colored glasses on when we're on track to make the playoffs.

My mindset is simple.

They have some older guys who can get hurt or fall off. (Ovechkin, Oshie, Dowd, Carlson, Jensen, Backstrom)

They have some younger guys who can stay static or improve (perhaps vastly?) (Sandin, Fehervary, McMichael, Protas, Malenstyn, HHA, Alexeyev, Lapierre)

Then they have their in prime players that need to stay healthy and have decent years for them to have a shot. (Kuznetsov, Wilson, Strome, Milano, Mantha, TVR, Kuemper).

Each group needs to be playing to its even slate, or better, to have a chance. If 1 group falls off, it will be that much harder to accomplish anything - this season.

 

[bacchist]

My mindset is simple.

They have some older guys who can get hurt or fall off. (Ovechkin, Oshie, Dowd, Carlson, Jensen, Backstrom)

They have some younger guys who can stay static or improve (perhaps vastly?) (Sandin, Fehervary, McMichael, Protas, Malenstyn, HHA, Alexeyev, Lapierre)

Then they have their in prime players that need to stay healthy and have decent years for them to have a shot. (Kuznetsov, Wilson, Strome, Milano, Mantha, TVR, Kuemper).

Each group needs to be playing to its even slate, or better, to have a chance. If 1 group falls off, it will be that much harder to accomplish anything - this season.

Yeah, that's probably generally correct. Another big question in my mind is how much upside is there with the new system. They seem to be still adjusting. I am still holding out some hope that something clicks in the next ~10-25 games and we see a dramatic shift with everyone buying in and finding chemistry. We've been showing gradual but mostly steady improvement, so I think it's still within the realm of possibility

 

[traparatus]

My mindset is simple.

They have some older guys who can get hurt or fall off. (Ovechkin, Oshie, Dowd, Carlson, Jensen, Backstrom)

They have some younger guys who can stay static or improve (perhaps vastly?) (Sandin, Fehervary, McMichael, Protas, Malenstyn, HHA, Alexeyev, Lapierre)

Then they have their in prime players that need to stay healthy and have decent years for them to have a shot. (Kuznetsov, Wilson, Strome, Milano, Mantha, TVR, Kuemper).

Each group needs to be playing to its even slate, or better, to have a chance. If 1 group falls off, it will be that much harder to accomplish anything - this season.

Sounds about right. In twisted kind of way, this is the most Ovechkin/Oshie reliant Capitals team of recent time. If those two are not producing, it is very difficult to see where goals are coming from. Ovechkin and Oshie put up 61 goals last season and Capitals had 20th ranked offense. There is absolutely no margin for slip in performance.

Defensively, Caps have been middle of the league team since before the Cup so it's hard to see how or why that would change for the better.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Do we need a rumor site to fuel speculation Mantha is on the trading block?

 

[Hivemind]

With Backstrom on LTIR, there's no reason to rush a Mantha deal. Let him rebuild a little value, and sell him at the deadline at 50% retention. Someone will play a 3rd+ for a 15G Mantha at 50% to bolster their 3rd line and PP2 unit.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Have to imagine they start putting pucks in nets soon. They may not be getting a ton of volume but they seem to be getting to the right spots at least.

 

[HTFN]

Have to imagine they start putting pucks in nets soon. They may not be getting a ton of volume but they seem to be getting to the right spots at least.

To me, I think this has been going in waves and we're seeing it work. Like, the first game looked rough, then after that they sort of loosened up and played a bit of a compromise game and seemed okay, won that one.

Then they tightened up again as if to say "okay we got one, now let's play the system to a T just to start learning it" and it didn't go well again but it's because it was too much brain stuff. They still visibly improved each time over those games, and that's reasonable when you're thinking too much about what you have to do before you do it in this game.

They grind through that a little, beat the Devils and look pretty good, and since then it's been a more firm adherence to the process (and we're seeing more lines changing as that goes) and a better grip of what they intend to be on the year. Some coin flip games but they're 4-2-1 since the Senators blowout far as I can tell and looking better and better on the puck.

The finish still isn't there, like Carbery said, but the fact that we can be talking about not finishing plays instead of not knowing how to start them and gain possession is already a big win as far as I can see it.

 

[g00n]

Carbery said you can see them start to know where guys are supposed to be. Obvious early on that wasn't there.

 

[HTFN]

Carbery said you can see them start to know where guys are supposed to be. Obvious early on that wasn't there.

I'd argue that their last two games, which includes that freaky Islanders game, showed a better demonstration of prolonged and composed puck movement than the majority of last season. Handful of bounces either way and that's another win, but even in a loss they moved the puck so much better and tried what I would generally call more intelligent things than the previous cycle game.

 

[twabby]

It's weird because while their goal differential is a bit unlucky and should be higher by most metrics, their standings points total is very lucky given they are a -9 in goal differential. Being a true .500 while being outscored by an average of .9 goals a game is great.

Overall given the process a .500 team is about what we should expect. Hopefully they can improve their metrics going forward. I have one idea how to improve them: give Matthew Phillips 25 minutes a game!

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Phillips for MVP.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It's weird because while their goal differential is a bit unlucky and should be higher by most metrics, their standings points total is very lucky given they are a -9 in goal differential. Being a true .500 while being outscored by an average of .9 goals a game is great.

Overall given the process a .500 team is about what we should expect. Hopefully they can improve their metrics going forward. I have one idea how to improve them: give Matthew Phillips 25 minutes a game!

If “the hockey jockey” Phillips gets a 25min game, you can rest assure he won’t be getting outta bed for 3-4 days to the beatings he took. LOL

 

[traparatus]

Have to imagine they start putting pucks in nets soon. They may not be getting a ton of volume but they seem to be getting to the right spots at least.

This is just the weirdest stat. You can get 10 shots a game and if 3.3 of them were from in close, you are the league leader. I mean, you'll lose just about every game but what a lovely stat. What possible conclusion can be reached from this statistic?

Obviously, not directed at you but at the tweet.

 

[Calicaps]

This is just the weirdest stat. You can get 10 shots a game and if 3.3 of them were from in close, you are the league leader. I mean, you'll lose just about every game but what a lovely stat. What possible conclusion can be reached from this statistic?

Obviously, not directed at you but at the tweet.

It speaks to them getting men and the puck to dangerous parts of the ice. So for all the talk about perimeter play, this suggests that in fact they're getting to the interior more than most. It's not perfect but it does seem to be a positive sign.

 

[twabby]

the hockey jockey

This is the winning nickname!

 

[traparatus]

It speaks to them getting men and the puck to dangerous parts of the ice. So for all the talk about perimeter play, this suggests that in fact they're getting to the interior more than most. It's not perfect but it does seem to be a positive sign.

It doesn't speak to that at all. You could lead the league in this stat AND have the least amount of shots from in-close at the same time.

Why not just rate teams by the amount of close in shots per game that they take? Better yet, just use Expected Goals. It covers all of this.

 

[twabby]

This paints a good picture of where Washington's offense is coming from without using buckets which can really misrepresent the data.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If “the hockey jockey” Phillips gets a 25min game, you can rest assure he won’t be getting outta bed for 3-4 days to the beatings he took. LOL

I was thinking the same thing..he’d be lucky to last 2 games lol..

 

[HTFN]

View attachment 764018

This paints a good picture of where Washington's offense is coming from without using buckets which can really misrepresent the data.

The middle is still a little weak but some of those are great parts to be shooting from, no wonder they’re not seeing equalized results yet but unless this is just gameplanned for by other teams it seems like between posts and disallowed goals it evens out

 

[twabby]

The middle is still a little weak but some of those are great parts to be shooting from, no wonder they’re not seeing equalized results yet but unless this is just gameplanned for by other teams it seems like between posts and disallowed goals it evens out

Right, I just don't think it's as rosy a picture as that weird Edge data point paints.

 

[alphabetical]

I was thinking the same thing..he’d be lucky to last 2 games lol..

Isn't that the Oshie special?

 

[John Price]

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Are You Experienced?

 

[Caps8112]

surprised this isnt talked about more or maybe I just missed it but any thought to moving Ovi down a line or 2? Anyone think he is hurt? or is this just finally him being normal a human?