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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

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The best - and probably only - example would be Vegas.

But people will say they were "gifted" a very good team with a generous expansion draft.

Maybe St Louis to a degree as well?
 
Langway said:
Not for the Blues so much. Or Vegas. But, largely, yes. Teams built from the back out and up the middle with a checking style can peak and win. It's rare but can happen with the right pedigree, mix and culture. It's more that I'm not sure MacLellan still has that degree of selectivity in him. It's been quite a while since those dead on Niskanen & Orpik signings.

Big picture Protas should be a good fit for playoff hockey. Leonard. Maybe Miro. But they've definitely got a lot of work to do building something more dynamic and interesting. (Or even capably boring in a basic shutdown sense.) While they'll have some cap space to burn they need to continue building up their asset base so that when quality trade opportunities arise they can be big players. That's IMO mainly why they ought to sell, particularly if someone like Dowd can net a first rounder ala Goodrow. It's tempting to try to find a way in but they can't be short-sighted. They've got to stay flexible while they try to execute a restructuring on the fly. Perhaps it becomes Sutter's time to earn a shot. Or they continue to roll with Protas at center.

Culture is going to have to be something that pushes them back into the playoffs more than pure high-end talent probably. But the overall standard needs to continuisly evolve or else it'll continue to fall flat. It's a tough puzzle to remedy. Certainly the easiest route is to luck into some quality young, cheap talent in the draft. I'm definitely skeptical they can do enough otherwise to remain competitive if they're squarely in the mid-range. But there are some other routes at least theoretically available.
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It’s really telling that there was only two potential examples and one is definitely not applicable in Vegas. The Blues had finished at the bottom of the league also with Pietrangelo (4th overall) being a core player in their Cup win and the trade assets from Erik Johnson (1st overall pick) also being key parts of their Cup win.
 
PlushMinus said:
The best - and probably only - example would be Vegas.

But people will say they were "gifted" a very good team with a generous expansion draft.

Maybe St Louis to a degree as well?
Click to expand...
I can’t see Vegas as a real example at all, they started at a point with no incurred negative value beyond what they were willing to take (and be paid for), creating an asset cabinet you can’t really get with another team without rebuilding anyway. They were incredibly savvy but it’s not a method you can replicate without expansion.

If St. Louis is it, that almost proves that it’s better to have a cost controlled core like those other multi-time winners than carefully make a lot of windows align on trades and UFAs, but mostly just be playoff fodder in the surrounding years.

Rangers vs. Kings in 2014 seems like the same kind of point.
 
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PlushMinus said:
The best - and probably only - example would be Vegas.

But people will say they were "gifted" a very good team with a generous expansion draft.

Maybe St Louis to a degree as well?
Click to expand...

I think it's pretty tough to win a cup by committee without standout talents. A lot of things have to fall your way like getting career years from multiple players, hot goalie streaks, and favorable match ups. Perhaps it's more possible now in the salary cap era than it was in the past.

I still think the proven formula for playoff success starts with having an above average or elite core of about 4 players. Goaltender, Defense, and two Forwards (playmaker and a goalscorer).

Goaltender is tricky because of the long development time and shorter number of prime years for goaltenders. An above average goalie or a goalie on a hot streak can be substituted for short stretches. You don't need to use a high draft pick to find a goalie, there's plenty of value in later rounds. A good drafting and development system needs to be in place as it can be very difficult to address goaltending needs from outside of the organization.

A true #1 Defender, who can play any situation and eat 25-30 minutes a game is still highly desirable to anchor a defense. These players take time to develop and it's extremely rare for a team to trade one, so it's a player you have to draft and develop. The best ones are usually drafted in the top 10.

An elite playmaking center who can play in all zones is the cornerstone of most cup winners. along with a standout goalscorer on the team to fuel the powerplay. The elite centers typically go in the top 5 picks of the draft, goalscorers are a little more difficult to project, but usually go in the first round (but not always).

I think you need about 3 years of top 10 picks with at least 1 of those being a top 5 pick in order to build a core that can compete for a cup. Sure, it's possible to find some gems in the later rounds, but it's very rare to find a core forward or defenseman there.

Do we want to delay the inevitable rebuild for a few more seasons to try and make the playoffs or rip the band-aid off and start now? I can see merit in both sides.
 
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pman25 said:
I’ll take round 1 losses any year. Hell a couple playoff wins is enough to keep me hooked. A playoff series win and I’ll hold on to that for years! Winning a cup is hard and comes down to luck most of the time. Just making it to there is good enough

Be careful what you wish for, don’t wanna be Buffalo always picking 8th overall
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I respectfully disagree. I lived through 30 yrs of playoff runs (83-14) prior to the stretch where we won the cup (2015-2018). (Stretch included lost NHL season 04-05).

From 1983 - 2014 (1st yr we made playoffs) , we missed the playoffs - 6x, lost in 1st rd - 14x, lost in 2nd rd - 8x, lost in 3rd rd - 1x, lost in Cup - 1x.

So prior to the run, 20 of 30 yrs we had not made/lost in 1st rd. 28 of 30 yrs we've not got past the 2nd rd.

2 of the 6 yrs of missed playoffs yrs we got OV & Backstrom with top 5 picks. If it takes a few of those, I'm in it for the next big superstar/future wave we rebuild into.

You don't want to be the Caps of the 80s & 90s.
 
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The formula is not "tanking = Cup".

The formula is "tanking = high draft pick".

What you do with that pick is highly variable and dependent on the draft, team, GM, coaches, luck, etc.

Not tanking doesn't mean you never win a Cup. Tanking does not mean you automatically win a Cup.

The QUESTION is "should you embrace losing when the team is clearly not up to a playoff run in order to get that high draft pick".

I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It's an adaptation to a different target...shooting for the top of the draft order instead of the top of the standings.

Once the draft is over you don't have to stay in "let's be OK with sucking" mode. It's not forever.
 
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Anyone want to have a go with the lines tonight:

8-24-43
21-17-39
15-29-67
47-23-96

I actually like those lines.
 
Hey folks - need opinions.

McMichael or Pacioretty in my fantasy league this week?
Alternative is Voronkov, but looking to get the extra game from the caps player
 
they're gonna try and do the same thing as last year aren't they?

I guess I get it. But man. If they're sitting post trade deadline with some guys like Mantha / Dowd, having not moved anyone, I will be disappointed.
 
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I think Dowd should be moved. He’s great at what he does, but he’s approaching the age where the extra mileage inherent in playing his kind of fame takes it toll (think Jay Beagle’s precipitous decline). He’s already looked a bit more brittle the last 2 years or so. His trade value likely will never be higher, and a team intent on making it to the 3rd round (which is not us) needs a guy like Dowd.
 
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Well, we can win with that lineup but i don’t love it. Man these injuries are tough. I hope Mantha can go but I’m ready to see Dube on a skill line and see what he can do. I could also see Milano getting elevated to 2RW with Dube at 3RW. First two lines are going to have to make some hay!
 


twabby coming to a ledge near you re: extending Mantha. And, I mean, it is hard to fathom getting better value if he'd accept something like 2x5. No idea if he's prepared to do that. I'd wager the opportunity in higher exposure circumstances is too tempting but he does sort of owe them. Under Carbery it seems like a good fit. It could go a lot worse for him. You never know.

Some Mantha talk at the 44 minute mark on the 32T pod. DET/EDM mentioned for obvious reasons. EDM seems like a great fit but I believe it's dollar-in, dollar-out for them.
 
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