Sure, but my question is whether the market allows for such patience. Will teams wait and run the risk of missing out on someone promised to move in a limited market for a player that may or may not move? Can they captivate the market? There are only so many first round picks likely to change hands. I'd wager maybe seven or eight in 2023 but maybe only two or three for a D. To make it worthwhile they'd need to get firsts for Orlov & Jensen and it's hard to say whether they're being put out there. It's not a decision to be taken lightly given their near-term value as D staples. Subtract the two and it may usher in a rebuild in full. Nice to add a couple firsts but not without significant subtractions.
Not sure it can get that bad in three weeks to blow it up to that extent. But mostly I'm not sure selling would garner ownership approval for morale reasons. They legit feel obligated to pull out all stops to do whatever they can to maintain and I'm sure that's likely to dictate the path forward. It seems more likely they'd just do the own-rental of most, hope for the best and maybe execute a shake-up trade. Mantha out (maybe with sweeteners) for a cheaper forward and depth D. Something of that nature that largely treads water but gets a head start on next year's cap. I'd be pretty floored if they reached the conclusion this team doesn't have it and sold Orlov, Jensen, Sheary, Eller, Johansson, TVR and Gus for picks. It would be pretty out of character. As much as they need to get younger in theory, in practice it needs to be highly capable youth and they've really struggled to find it lately. Hard then to expect more beyond the typical stopgap, chugging along approach.
Show me a team that doesn't want to find "highly capable youth".
Your comment was more about timing as I read it, regarding waiting until the last minute.
The market is what it is. A few teams are making moves early but that always seems to happen maybe a month or so out. Then things quiet down, and a few moves trickle in up until a day or so before the TDL when almost all the action happens. Time pressure drives up the urgency for both sides, but if you don't need to make the move you have the advantage. The only moves the Caps may
need to make could be regarding LTIR cap space. Timing on that is not up to the FO.
I'm not telling you anything you don't already know.
As for the scale of trades...a little shake up vs a firesale... who can say for sure. I did mention in the comment about Oshie that I don't think Ted wants another firesale. And there probably won't be one. They're not going to dump a dozen or so UFAs and call up half of Hershey or trot out some rando rental JAGs who were thrown in to small time trades along with late round picks. Ovie and Backstrom aren't being moved, Wilson probably isn't being moved, Oshie is a maybe. Carlson and Kuzy SHOULD be moved but that's a coin flip imo. Just trading those two wouldn't be considered an "everything must go" firesale, even adding Mantha and Eller to the mix. But it would be a "shake things up" selling move for sure.
People seem to assume the FO staff are clueless and don't see any of this. We know Gmbm likes to dangle term in order to keep cap numbers lower than market, but the Milano and Strome extensions surprised me in their timing. Those signings showed me the FO is again correctly judging player value based on performance, at least within its own roster. Gmbm's comments before the December run add evidence to that assessment. Pro scouting is another question which makes trades feel more dangerous.
So in general, I think they have a plan, or at least a list of priorities, based on their analysis of the roster. They may "keep the powder dry" on many of the >2M UFAs like Mojo or Hathaway etc and play out the season before making a call on such things, out of necessity since those guys are not priority youth/speed/skill pieces that have to be dealt with first. Or they may flip the most valuable chips and let the rest walk.
Whatever it is, half the league is probably looking to buy at the TDL when prices are high so I'm not that worried about running out of time to get things done. Many here seem to be unable to handle the uncertainty and anxiety that comes with NOT making moves and they get pissed off that things aren't happening fast enough to ease that tension.
Chill. Only one team wins the Cup. The odds are ALWAYS against us.
edit: and I got the date confused with something else wrt the TDL, so they don't have the luxury of waiting for some of the LTIR or other trends to play out. Chances are, being in a playoff spot now, they'll default to the least amount of player movement necessary.
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