Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

Yes, I'm going to mock it. The audacity to think banking on lightning in a bottle for team building is so asinine I'm not even sure how to rebuke it.

Nobody's banking on that for team building. We're not team building this year. We're all-in until they're out of playoff contention.

Why is this not registering?

 

[Brian23]

Nobody's banking on that for team building. We're not team building this year. We're all-in until they're out of playoff contention.

Why is this not registering?

Neat. The discussion was on team building and, essentially, theory crafting around that. We weren't speaking specifically of what they're doing but around the vision of what we'd like to see.

How is that not registering?

 

[g00n]

Neat. The discussion was on team building and, essentially, theory crafting around that. We weren't speaking specifically of what they're doing but around the vision of what we'd like to see.

How is that not registering?

You said this season was tailor made to blow it up and suck for a rebuild. I asked what coach in a contract year is going to go for that. You said something about a lame duck coach being a stupid thing for Ted to allow and I pointed out the fact that we won a Cup with a lame duck coach in a contract year.

What "theory crafting" do you need beyond these facts, all of which are pointing to the fact that we're not team building this year, so any "theory crafting" is basically useless?

 

[Brian23]

so any "theory crafting" is basically useless?

Then why even have this board? Why have any discussions? Roshi brought up something interesting, we started discussing it, then you come in to hammer it down because you don't like it.

Like Jesus, if you have an issue with a discussion maybe stop continuously interjecting into them to swing your purity hammer around.

 

[g00n]

Then why even have this board? Why have any discussions? Roshi brought up something interesting, we started discussing it, then you come in to hammer it down because you don't like it.

Like Jesus, if you have an issue with a discussion maybe stop continuously interjecting into them to swing your purity hammer around.

Why post your theories for discussion if you don't want to hear opinions about them?

I'm not telling you to shut up and go away so stop acting like it. I'm telling you why these various theories miss the mark, in my opinion.

Maybe we just need a separate thread for Xs and Os and discussion of the on-ice product. So all the tank talk and 'FIRE ALL THE COACHES AND FRONT OFFICE AND TRADE EVERYONE RIGHT NOW!!" posts can exist separately from talk about the games themselves.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

One of the few times RMNB and I agree on something.

I would pay Elliotte Friedman to stop talking about an Anthony Mantha / Brock Boeser trade

Dear Elliotte Friedman, Hello. How are you? I'm good. Almost done Christmas shopping, so that's nice. Anyway, I write to ask you…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

 

[Cappy76]

One of the few times RMNB and I agree on something.

I would pay Elliotte Friedman to stop talking about an Anthony Mantha / Brock Boeser trade

Dear Elliotte Friedman, Hello. How are you? I'm good. Almost done Christmas shopping, so that's nice. Anyway, I write to ask you…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Agreed Brock is not the answer here please no. This is what worries me the most this season an attempt to “save” their playoff chances with a panic move a la Erat.

 

[twabby]

@twabby would probably tell you Kuznetsov is a good five years past his prime. It's probably not untrue. Over the hill and done? Maybe not. Good enough for what they need to seriously compete as-is? Different standards altogether. While he still could prove an X factor in a close series the wild variance and defensive weakness would be enough for me to consider him a luxury. He's already been demoted from PP1 even with 19 out so he's becoming a bit marginalized. It's an off-season move at the earliest barring either simply wanting out of the contract and/or a special acquisition option lining up.

2015-2018 was definitely Kuznetsov's prime statistically, and that makes sense given his age at that time (23-25, typically considered to be the most impactful age of NHL forwards).

Since the Cup win and aside from 2020-21 Kuznetsov has been pretty bad overall. Since 2018-19 he's in the bottom third of the league in GAR/60. That's not great for a 1C on a team hoping to compete! It's not tenable going forward at his price point.

Strome, in the meantime, is in the top third of the league in the same GAR/60 metric. I don't think Strome is a great option going forward as a 1C because his highs aren't terribly high, but I think he can at least hold the fort and be a perfectly good 2C if Washington somehow finds a 1C in-house or in a trade/free-agency.

It's a small sample, but Strome and Ovechkin have made things happen so far:

Spoiler: Ovechkin + Strome on-ice heat maps

While being very respectable defensively:

The goals aren't there yet, but the Strome/Ovechkin duo has had a bunch of games like last night where they've created sustained pressure but been a bit unlucky to not pot a goal or two.

If I'm planning for next year I don't really know where Kuznetsov should fit in, with or without Backstrom returning. Strome right now is a keeper. He's younger and better than Kuznetsov right now, and I highly doubt he's going to come in close to Kuznetsov's $7.8 million.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes, I'm going to mock it. The audacity to think banking on lightning in a bottle for team building is so asinine I'm not even sure how to rebuke it.

Nobody banks on it…it just happens…a lot. That’s why going “all in” (at the trade deadline) is stupidity most of the time.

This team isn’t going to give up and trade or bench veterans for unready younger talent early unless it’s really warranted. They’re certainly not tanking yet. They’ll let the coaching staff and the roster fight to make the playoffs. As they should.

 

[Jags]

But that's what worries me this year. Eller has to be better in the playoffs and Carlson needs to be A LOT better. We also have a SC winning goaltender as our claer 1A this time, and very solid backup. That has to count for something.

I'm with you on most of this, but Eller needs to go. He's still a good player, but if we're to make the playoffs AND make some noise when we get there, depth scoring will be crucial and he's just not that guy.

I'd make a move there sooner than later, even if it means taking a chance on one of the kids in the meantime. Someone with more offensive acumen that can complement the skill of their wings, even if they themselves lack some polish and finish. Once Wilson comes back, we'll have Ovi, Wilson, Mantha, Oshie, Sheary, Milano, MoJo, and Protas. Our 3C will have real talent around him regardless of how the chemistry shakes out. We'll need to leverage that.

The days of Eller playing with Hags and Panik are over. He wasn't holding anyone back then. Now he's handcuffing some pretty solid offensive potential.

 

[Jags]

Strome has done well and to me at least looks like a more effective player than Kuznetsov these days.

He's definitely the steadier player; the guy you can count on more. Kuznetsov is like a Tim Burton character, brilliant and artsy a lot of the time, but cagey and unpredictable.

Kuzy should definitely not be on our first power play unit. He takes too many unscreened shots that have zero hope of going in. More Strome there, or even Mantha if he can handle the dish. But Kuzy's a liability there more often than not. No idea why they keep going back to that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If they can acquire a better option than Eller, bring on a trade. Otherwise, weakening the team just to jettison him, makes no sense.

I mean if you want to successfully make what’s a hard push remaining just to make the playoffs.

 

[Jags]

I wouldn't. But I think it speaks to another problem; why is your coach in a lame duck year making decisions about the future of your team?

You lose me a little after this statement, but it's one of the better standalone sentences I've seen here in a while. If Lavi is actually a lame duck (questionable given the extension chatter early in the year), then it's odd that MacLellan is giving him so wide a berth. If there's really a disconnect between the two of them, I'd like to see Mac start acting like it, maybe make some personnel decisions to force his hand a bit.

Lotsa talk about Trotz's lame duck year, but look at what actually happened. Trotz was one of our weak links the prior two years. He had us playing chickenshit perimeter hockey in elimination games, was reactively gameplanning to counter the Pens instead of proactively letting the best team in the league do our thing and set the tone for a change. Shortening the bench, dressing 7 D, doghousing players that could have helped us. It wasn't pretty. He got outcoached pretty handily, in my opinion.

Then in 2018, we learned in hindsight that he'd been on the hotseat all year, almost got fired, and they made it sound like he was either forced to think outside of his typical box, cede some control to assistants, or maybe had one foot out the door and decided to pull out all the stops and go for broke. Whatever the cause was, Trotz did a complete 180.

His doghouse players played, young players (rookies!) were playing, and not bullshit minutes or garbage deployments either. Feature time, high in the lineup, and guys like Vrana, Connolly, and Stephenson really contributed. Even got some surprising contributions from guys like Walker and Boyd. Those choices were very unlike Trotz. Very little conservative bullshit, trying to protect thin leads, 3rd-line Ovi, shortened benches, heavily sheltered players. All that crap went out the window.

So yeah, I'd like it more if I got the sense that Mac was challenging Laviolette in similar ways instead of giving him the rope he needs to hang himself.

 

[g00n]

I'm with you on most of this, but Eller needs to go. He's still a good player, but if we're to make the playoffs AND make some noise when we get there, depth scoring will be crucial and he's just not that guy.

I'd make a move there sooner than later, even if it means taking a chance on one of the kids in the meantime. Someone with more offensive acumen that can complement the skill of their wings, even if they themselves lack some polish and finish. Once Wilson comes back, we'll have Ovi, Wilson, Mantha, Oshie, Sheary, Milano, MoJo, and Protas. Our 3C will have real talent around him regardless of how the chemistry shakes out. We'll need to leverage that.

The days of Eller playing with Hags and Panik are over. He wasn't holding anyone back then. Now he's handcuffing some pretty solid offensive potential.

I was leading the parade to trade both Eller and Carlson in the offseason but I don't see it happening unless we're out of contention. Caps FO and coaching staff seem invested in this lineup ....for now.

 

[Jags]

weakening the team just to jettison him, makes no sense

Here's the question I've been asking that everyone kinda dodges: How much worse do you think we are with any of our current other options at 3C? Eller isn't playing poorly, but he's not setting the world on fire in any categories, either. He's just kinda there.

If he were so stalwart a defensive forward and all the kids were defensive nightmares, I'd see your point. But that's not the case. It was a small sample, but we got more from the 3C position last year when Eller was out.

Meanwhile, those other options are already better at driving offensive play, and given the talent we have at wing, that's the side of the ice we should be trying to leverage.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Here's the question I've been asking that everyone kinda dodges: How much worse do you think we are with any of our current other options at 3C? Eller isn't playing poorly, but he's not setting the world on fire in any categories, either. He's just kinda there.

If he were so stalwart a defensive forward and all the kids were defensive nightmares, I'd see your point. But that's not the case. It was a small sample, but we got more from the 3C position last year when Eller was out.

Meanwhile, those other options are already better at driving offensive play, and given the talent we have at wing, that's the side of the ice we should be trying to leverage.

I think CMM is a significant drop off and is off form this year. What other options are you suggesting?

 

[RedRocking]

I think CMM is a significant drop off and is off form this year. What other options are you suggesting?

Yea, I still see as Eller as our likely best option at 3C. I think he fits the role Lavi wants for that line, which is a pretty good possession line. Eller, at times, still exhibits good defensive play, physical play along the boards, and has been solid on the PK (a key strength of this team at the moment).

Yes, he’s a had crap games where he is turning it over a lot, and it would be nice to get more scoring from that line. But, there are a few key moments every game, where I note: CMM isn’t making that play. Of course, if we’re clearly out of contention before the TDL, then play CMM, and other kids to see what they have.

Also, put me on the “concerned about Kuzy past age 30” train. Your whipping boy, Eller, has 2 more goals than him. It feels like Kuzy has already lost half a step since just last season. Could be his shit attitude, I dunno. But, as his elite skating goes, he hasn’t really shown the vision/IQ needed to compensate. His play on that 5 min PP last night was atrocious, and I wish they’d send him back down to PP2. No more 92 on the half wall - sick of watching him panic and make terrible decisions. I hope he is just in a snakebit funk, and will find his groove this year.

But, say Backstrom actually returns and can play another year or two - then keeping Strome, and moving Kuzy in the offseason might not be a bad idea. Backy can help buy time and help transition CMM/Jimi. Big “if” there with 19, but that, and much more (including Lavi’s future) remains to be seen as the rest of this transitional season plays out.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Yea, I still see as Eller as our likely best option at 3C. I think he fits the role Lavi wants for that line, which is a pretty good possession line. Eller, at times, still exhibits good defensive play, physical play along the boards, and has been solid on the PK (a key strength of this team at the moment).

Yes, he’s a had crap games where he is turning it over a lot, and it would be nice to get more scoring from that line. But, there are a few key moments every game, where I note: CMM isn’t making that play. Of course, if we’re clearly out of contention before the TDL, then play CMM, and other kids to see what they have.

Also, put me on the “concerned about Kuzy past age 30” train. Your whipping boy, Eller, has 2 more goals than him. It feels like Kuzy has already lost half a step since just last season. Could be his shit attitude, I dunno. But, as his elite skating goes, he hasn’t really shown the vision/IQ needed to compensate. His play on that 5 min PP last night was atrocious, and I wish they’d send him back down to PP2. No more 92 on the half wall - sick of watching him panic and make terrible decisions. I hope he is just in a snakebit funk, and will find his groove this year.

But, say Backstrom actually returns and can play another year or two - then keeping Strome, and moving Kuzy in the offseason might not be a bad idea. Backy can help buy time and help transition CMM/Jimi. Big “if” there with 19, but that, and much more (including Lavi’s future) remains to be seen as the rest of this transitional season plays out.

Highly highly unlikely Backstrom plays two years more. The most a player with that operation came back to play was something around 35-40 games. I hope he does but very unlikely and I don’t think you can depend on him.

 

[RedRocking]

Highly highly unlikely Backstrom plays two years more. The most a player with that operation came back to play was something around 35-40 games. I hope he does but very unlikely and I don’t think you can depend on him.

Oh, I know. That’s just how frustrated I am with 92 at the moment. And pleasantly surprised by Strome otoh. Plus, getting lots of company line from Walton and May lately about how good Nick looks.

I’ll believe it when I see it, but he was still ~ PPG player last year when he could barely skate. The year prior, he was arguably our best player. What if we get 85% of that guy to start next year? And I’m just talking about him playing enough to help transition CMM/Jimi into a top 6 center role(s), not necessarily being a star anymore.

Anyways, we should have the answer on Backstrom later this season. Unless they string it out into next training camp. I hope not - either he is effective, or let’s use that $.

 

[PlushMinus]

oh ffs - calling up Dylan McIlrath?? 30 year old never-was who hasn't even played in the NHL since 2019-20 season. Just give Lujo the games so he gets some experience.

Lavi: "Give me whichever D in Hershey has played the most NHL games. Oh, McIlrath? Yep he'll do nicely alongside Irwin".

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

2015-2018 was definitely Kuznetsov's prime statistically, and that makes sense given his age at that time (23-25, typically considered to be the most impactful age of NHL forwards).

Since the Cup win and aside from 2020-21 Kuznetsov has been pretty bad overall. Since 2018-19 he's in the bottom third of the league in GAR/60. That's not great for a 1C on a team hoping to compete! It's not tenable going forward at his price point.

Strome, in the meantime, is in the top third of the league in the same GAR/60 metric. I don't think Strome is a great option going forward as a 1C because his highs aren't terribly high, but I think he can at least hold the fort and be a perfectly good 2C if Washington somehow finds a 1C in-house or in a trade/free-agency.

It's a small sample, but Strome and Ovechkin have made things happen so far:

Spoiler: Ovechkin + Strome on-ice heat maps

View attachment 619610

While being very respectable defensively:

View attachment 619611

The goals aren't there yet, but the Strome/Ovechkin duo has had a bunch of games like last night where they've created sustained pressure but been a bit unlucky to not pot a goal or two.

If I'm planning for next year I don't really know where Kuznetsov should fit in, with or without Backstrom returning. Strome right now is a keeper. He's younger and better than Kuznetsov right now, and I highly doubt he's going to come in close to Kuznetsov's $7.8 million.

 

[swansonsays]

oh ffs - calling up Dylan McIlrath?? 30 year old never-was who hasn't even played in the NHL since 2019-20 season. Just give Lujo the games so he gets some experience.

McIlrath still has a suspension to serve from preseason shenanigans a couple of years ago. Two games I believe. Calling up a guy who can't even play, if need be, until game 3 seems to indicate Orlov isn't close at all & AA must be pretty concussed.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

McIlrath still has a suspension to serve from preseason shenanigans a couple of years ago. Two games I believe. Calling up a guy who can't even play, if need be, until game 3 seems to indicate Orlov isn't close at all & AA must be pretty concussed.

Maybe just calling him up to clear his ledger, just in case…

 

[twabby]

The underlying offensive metrics are still questionable, but it is true that Washington has been quite unlucky in their shooting percentages. That should regress upward soon, especially given that they have always shot above expectation. Ovie’s not going to keep getting denied, for instance.

Of course as mentioned a few weeks ago a lot of their competition is also due for some better shooting luck. Namely the Rangers, Penguins, and Panthers. Carolina has historically shot below expectation so I’m not sure exactly how much they should be expected to rise.



On the other hand they are doing just fine in the goaltending department. As long as Kuemper returns soon with no ill-effects from his concussion then I would expect them to stay well above expectation in this department. But that concussion looms large…

 

[pman25]

Kuznetsov would be the one I would sell as well. Extend Strome, see what Backstrom can do, and Lapierre/McMichael fill in the gaps. And trusty Nic Dowd can always take 3C minutes.

I’d look to Minnesota who has been rumored to be looking for top 6 talent and their centers have always been lacking. Their “top” center Hartman is injured for a while and Marco Rossi hasn’t shown anything yet. Meanwhile they are left with Joel Ericsson Ek and Sam steel.

I think a match is there. Hell maybe they could take Lars Eller.