But whats the vision of staying competitive? Being a playoffs-team? Winning 1st round? I mean if thats the definition, its weird because we have been there (or very close atleast) all the time and for the boards thats ”a disaster”. its very dark nowadays in the forums and its easy to see why ”our” board is dividing up into camps.
I think for many of us, the vision of being competitive is a team that can have a realistic shot of progressing in the playoffs (and thus at least a dark horse shot at the Cup). To be more than an "also ran" that shows up for the first round for up to six games, then gets to go golfing. We've had more than enough of that since the Cup, and can even remember that feeling from before the Cup as well. I think that most of us can draw a distinction between being a favorite that's consistently upset in the second round, and being a contender that makes the second or third round.
I do think there's also a contingent of us who desperately want to get the Ovechkin-era Capitals a second Cup, recognizing that we'll never have a talent like Ovechkin again and every season spent in mediocrity with him on the roster is lost opportunity cost. At this point, it may be all but a fantasy. But had a different path been followed post-2018, it might have been do-able.
As for the board dividing up, that's nothing new. There's always been cliques and mini-factions and friction on here. As much as certain posters want to pretend that's something new, it's nostalgia about the board's past. There's always been posters who whined about the "gloom and doomers" and posters who pushed back about "homer glasses" and whatnot.
(Btw We have been bringing new players every year. For top6, for top4, for Gk, for coaching staff. Its not like they just dont try anything. By trades, by ufa, by draft..)
Have they? Four of the top six positions have stayed steady basically since 2017, and that number could presumably go back up to five if Backstrom returns to the NHL. Really the only change in the top six was the Mantha/Vrana trade, and Mantha isn't even in the top six anymore. Connor Brown was signed as a Wilson band-aid, but wasn't going to stick in the top six once Wilson and Oshie were back. Strome is a nice change-up, but are they going to keep him around? Where does he slot once Backstrom is back?
Defense is definitely the area they've had the most turnover and attempts at new things, no contest there. And, unsurprisingly, some of their most effective players (especially from a contract value perspective) have been the result of these forced shake-ups to defense. I think some of us frustrated plans want to see the forward versions of Jensen and Fehervary make their appearances (I'm willing to call Sheary the forward version of TvR - they even both joined in the same cap crunch value pile add).
Goalies they opted to run with two kids two years in a row, even though everyone knew that they needed a steadying presence desperately by the second year of that. They even traded to bring one of them back after the expansion draft. But the bigger story is that it segways perfectly into the coaching staff...
...even with a head coaching change Scott Murray and Blayne Forsythe persisted. They made one significant head coaching change, but kept some of the more problematic assistants and have continued to retain them as evidence continues to mount that they're not capable of helping turn this franchise around. And even the premise of their head coaching change (that two 1st round exits does not meet this organization's standards anymore) has been ignored afterwards by the front office.
Also as much as we all like CMM, Lapierre and Miro and Chesley and all, but thats not the core you can comfortably say just takes over after 8 is done. So if not for a full rebuild, you will have to find a lucky ticket from the draft in the 10-20 range. That approach is manageable without firing BM and sending all our old core players to the moon.
I fully agree that CMM, Lappy, Protas, and co. might not be able to be the type of impact players to become a Cup Contending core. But the next step is to find out what they can do, and to find out quickly. Regardless of whether the vision is to re-tool or to re-build, we need to find out what these players can do at the NHL level, and a large part of that process is grooming them for NHL success and putting them in a position to succeed in the NHL. Not playing them out-of-position with grinders for 8 minutes per night with no special teams time. In order to do that, they need to clear out some of these roadblock veterans like Eller, Irwin, and Johansson. Give Lapierre and CMM each a prolonged look as 2/3 C before the season ends. Give Protas a longer look in the top six (and perhaps also at 3C). If AA isn't concussed into oblivion, let him get a real trial at LD. Let Snively actually see the ice. Get Iorio at least a cup of coffee.
If these guys can step up immediately and become valuable difference makers in these types of secondary roles, then there's a path forward established to contending again with Ovechkin. If they can't, then the precedent is set, and they need to start building towards the post-Ovechkin era.
So why not play out the current core and try to get that lucky ticket at the same time, and then if it dont happen you can go rebuild-mode later. It just seems people here are so much in rush to force the organization a couple years ahead, and dont even seem to have a clear vision where to.
Because that's just playing out the string and wasting time. Not only would that be wasting the opportunity cost of having the greatest player this franchise has ever or will ever have, but it's also then prolonging the down years in the post-Ovechkin times. One way or another, it's time to pick a path.
Further still, the opportunity to sell off is
now. Contractually, they've made this post-season the inflection point. They have 11 UFAs and 3 RFAs coming up after this season. Rather than letting these guys walk for nothing or commit to overpriced contracts to keep them if they're not going to fit the contention window, this is the opportunity to get value for these guys at the deadline and fuel-up for the next era of Capitals hockey. Even Wilson and Mantha only have one more year on their contract beyond this one. Start by moving guys like Eller and Johansson that should obviously have no business in either short or long term plans, and seeing what the players who might figure into long term plans can do with their ice time. And then use that to build an informed decision on which other UFAs should be moved at the deadline.
Many (not you) seem to have obsession that success has to happen through a certain mold. Young home grown players. Change Strome for Stephenson, Jensen for Siegenhalert and Eller for McMichael and Dowd for Lapierre and the results may not be any better, but in some way that would seem be the correct way to lose games for our boars.
I don't think those of us who follow the ex-Caps are hoping that guys like Strome or Jensen would be out the door. But rather having a young, cost-controlled guy like Siegenthaler would hopefully give Carlson the consistent partner that they've struggled to find for him through-out his career, not require TvR to play his off-side last season, and allow them to avoid investing in someone like Justin Schultz or Erik Gustafsson.
The most consistent path to contention is having players who out perform their cap hits. Barring playing some LTIR shenanigans like Tampa Bay, that generally means having homegrown players on ELCs or RFA deals. UFA signings are much harder to get at below value, due to
"winners curse" (the fact that the high bidder for an item is, by default, paying more than market value). It's also expensive to get players who are outperforming their contracts via trade, due to the fact they're among the last players a team would want to trade away. Colorado had to trade a 1st, 3rd, and Connor Timmins to get a $4.5M version of Darcy Kuemper last year for only a single season. Their core was home grown talents like Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog, and MacKinnon - with MacKinnon on an absolute sweetheart RFA deal with only a $6.3M cap hit. They complimented them with a couple very judicious dumpster dives that turned into gems, like Devon Toews and Valeri Nichuskin.
We've done okay bringing in our versions of Devon Towes and Valeri Nichuskin with guys like Jensen and TvR, but we don't have our younger players outperforming their RFA contracts anymore. And they're burning away the years that they could be right now, favoring guys like Eller, Johansson, Irwin, Chara, Hagelin, Kovalchuk, and company instead.
