Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Langway]

What should McMichael think if that's how his situation is perceived organizationally? It's just weird to make that sweeping an assessment given how inconsistent it is with recent indecisiveness. It also doesn't indicate an openness to selling at the deadline and giving young players like CMM a shot should things go south.

It's all great that they're just letting it play out but count me as a disbeliever that they're truly open to making the right improvements. I don't think they have the patience and discipline to substantially do it any better than they are currently. Swap in some new faces, get healthy and maybe it's a playoff team again. It's still probably not a contender because organizationally they don't seem to possess that level of selectivity. Despite all that, of course, were they healthy they'd probably be in a playoff spot. It goes to show how thin that line is but also how dangerous it still could be if they decide to make sweeping changes for the sake of it and don't manage to strike the right balance.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

This season should be written off.

1) Play the young'uns more to see what you've got. Decide which can make it in the NHL and who's a better fit for Hershey.
2) The team has 10 roster players who'll be UFAs this summer. They have roughly three months to decide whom to keep and they can move those they don't intend to resign (this is not a season to keep someone 'for the playoffs' and then lose them for nothing in the summer).
3) Consider other teams' offers for non-UFAs and move at least some of 'em. If you can fill key gaps with players you can get in return, great, or you can use some of the prospects and picks you get in packages to make other necessary acquisitions before the draft.
4) Fire Lavi, put in an interim coach, and get someone new after this season ends.

I'm at a loss re. Backstrom. There's no history of an NHL player successfully coming back from hip resurfacing. If he does, great, it couldn't happen to a better guy. I've still got my doubts.

Things may not completely jell next season, but these guys are not getting better, they're getting worse. Management cannot simply keep doing the same things and expect better results.

 

[twabby]

I'm glad a trade for a big salary player seems to be off the table at least for now, but I do get the sense that MacLellan isn't going to be proactive this season about selling off and is under the impression that Wilson (and maybe Backstrom) returning will turn the season around.

He mentioned the team has been better the 5 games before last night's game since Oshie returned but I don't really see it. They squeaked by a crappy Flyers team in OT, had a good showing against Calgary, had one good period against the Devils, beat a floundering Canucks team, and then stank against the Kraken (before stinking again last night). Doesn't seem any better than the rest of their season to be honest, where they'll have a good game or two and then prolonged periods of offense going dry. Nothing about their process has been encouraging since Oshie returned, and I suspect the same will be true when Wilson, Orlov, and Backstrom return.

I feel like Laviolette is going to get the rest of the season, the vets are going to play until they are mathematically eliminated in game 77 or whatever, maybe they trade Eller at the TDL, and then they'll punt until the offseason. Instead of getting ahead of the market and making moves as soon as possible to be impact for next year, they seem like they are going to drag their feet until they are basically forced to do something.

Laviolette has to go. Forsythe has got to go. Murray has got to go. I get that there have been injuries but it appears this staff is doing all they can to minimize what talent they do have.

 

[tycoonheart]

"At the beginning of the year, we dug a hole..."

What is GMBM smoking? We're still digging that hole.

 

[pman25]

I hope they at least sell the cheap guys which should get some picks, as they will be a premium for cap strapped teams. A RHD Trevor van Reimsdyk at $950k? Utility winger Conor Sheary for $1.5? Pest and ultimate PITA player Hathaway at $1.5? They should get a collection of 2nds / 3rds / 4ths for that bunch.

But I’m guessing Sheary gets a 4 year extension instead

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Nothing reassuring here…basically, I see the team is struggling but I’m not doing anything either way.

 

[Brian23]

I still wonder how much is Ted telling him that he can't break up the Beatles. I think Orlov is one he could move, but arguably the one he shouldn't. But I can see Ted making Ovi, Backstrom, Carlson, Oshie, and WIlson untouchable. And maybe Kuznetsov is untouchable as a friend of Ovi.

 

[g00n]

What should McMichael think if that's how his situation is perceived organizationally?

What does this mean? He's a 21 year old prospect on a 2 way contract. He should be thinking "I need to get better". If he's not thinking that, and instead is thinking "they're screwing me over", then we've got a real problem with this kid's headspace.

It's just weird to make that sweeping an assessment given how inconsistent it is with recent indecisiveness.

What does THIS mean?

It also doesn't indicate an openness to selling at the deadline and giving young players like CMM a shot should things go south.

Why would GMBM talk about that now? There's zero advantage to tipping your hand if you're open to dealing at the TDL. The smart play is to put pressure on your current squad to either improve the ROI or improve the trade values.

It's all great that they're just letting it play out but count me as a disbeliever that they're truly open to making the right improvements.

Why? GMBM may have failed on some moves he's made but no GM in Caps history has been so tuned in to the needs up and down the roster while also actively trying to plug those holes.

I don't think they have the patience and discipline to substantially do it any better than they are currently.

Based on what? What sort of "patience and discipline" are we talking about here? A rebuild?

Swap in some new faces, get healthy and maybe it's a playoff team again. It's still probably not a contender because organizationally they don't seem to possess that level of selectivity.

You talk a lot about how they "organizationally" seem to lack this and that but I'm not sure what you're really trying to say half the time because it's all concerned generalization-- like reading a performance review horoscope.

What "level of selectivity" do they not seem to possess...organizationally? The ability to trade to fit holes? Hasn't GMBM been pretty good on that front?

Despite all that, of course, were they healthy they'd probably be in a playoff spot.

Then what is all this shit above about how they fail organizationally?

It goes to show how thin that line is but also how dangerous it still could be if they decide to make sweeping changes for the sake of it and don't manage to strike the right balance.

Ok. Don't make stupid mistakes and make good moves. I hope they're reading this so they're made aware.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think BMac is pretty much spot on, with my only gripe being that he seems to absolve the coaching staff of any blame. He mentions they need more offense out of the top guys like Kuzy and that the team is different when Mantha is on his game and scoring… maybe if he played in a scoring role he’d score more? Mentioned the PP cannot go 0-for-21 or whatever… maybe there’s a scheme and coaching issue?

I do think they need to be aggressive and sell if they don’t go on a 12 wins in 15 games type run soon. Nothing wrong with calling a season lost and doing what you can to set yourself up for another bite at the apple next season. They’re in a pretty decent position actually where they can remake the look of this team pretty significantly this off-season if they play their cards right.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nothing reassuring here…basically, I see the team is struggling but I’m not doing anything either way.

This lends credibility to my belief that going into this season they were ready to not panic, still try to make the playoffs, but if not, be willing to take a half step back to get a better pick in a good draft and try to retool/bounce back next year if the skeleton crew can’t get it done.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think BMac is pretty much spot on, with my only gripe being that he seems to absolve the coaching staff of any blame. He mentions they need more offense out of the top guys like Kuzy and that the team is different when Mantha is on his game and scoring… maybe if he played in a scoring role he’d score more? Mentioned the PP cannot go 0-for-21 or whatever… maybe there’s a scheme and coaching issue?

I do think they need to be aggressive and sell if they don’t go on a 12 wins in 15 games type run soon. Nothing wrong with calling a season lost and doing what you can to set yourself up for another bite at the apple next season. They’re in a pretty decent position actually where they can remake the look of this team pretty significantly this off-season if they play their cards right.

At the deadline, absolutely….I’m waiting for the high prices….

 

[Holtbyisms]

As far as expiring contracts I'd like to see the following...don't think the replacements I listed make the team any worse(maybe better?) but it does build some draft capital to allow us to move up here and there and go after some talent in rounds 2 and 3 in a very deep draft. Could also look at moving someone like Mantha if it makes sense but then you're looking at Oshie back in the top 6 and a very young third line. Perhaps a better option to move him in the off-season unless we're legit quitting and tanking and I can't imagine that's the plan given our organizational direction.


Re-sign
Orlov
Jensen
Strome
Milano

Trade at the deadline
Mojo (replace with Snivley)
Sheary (replace with Wilson)
Hathaway (replace with Malenstyn)
Eller (replace with McMichael)
TVR (replace with Alexeyev)
Gustafsson (replace with Lujo)

Ovi-Strome/Kuz-Wilson
Milano-Strome/Kuz-Mantha
Snivley-McMichael-Oshie
Protas-Dowd-Malenstyn
NAK

Fehervary-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen
Alexeyev-Johansen
Irwin

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Looks like Keumper will be out at least for the Edmonton game. Hershey signed a goalie to a PTO today and Shepard is not on the ice.

 

[YippieKaey]

View attachment 616911

And there it is.

I feel like this statement is pretty tailored for the press. It's not incorrect, but if they're really expecting Backstrom to return and be an impact player this season their thinking is just bad. At best, he's back in some sort of playable shape in time for the playoffs that we with about 90% certainty won't be making. So im guessing he's saying this in order to cover up some form of mini-tank.

But who knows really....

 

[trick9]

I feel like this statement is pretty tailored for the press. It's not incorrect, but if they're really expecting Backstrom to return and be an impact player this season their thinking is just bad. At best, he's back in some sort of playable shape in time for the playoffs that we with about 90% certainty won't be making. So im guessing he's saying this in order to cover up some form of mini-tank.

But who knows really....

It doesn't matter if the returning guy is PPG Backstrom or one-legged Backstrom, he still counts against the cap. What is he supposed to say?

 

[YippieKaey]

It doesn't matter if the returning guy is PPG Backstrom or one-legged Backstrom, he still counts against the cap. What is he supposed to say?

No he is saying the right thing. But i do think Bäckström will stay on LTIR the entire season. Obviously he can't say that due to politics but still.

 

[Brian23]

Kinda surprising, but I guess he's supposedly been killing it?

 

[YippieKaey]

A lot of justified talk about firing Lavi etc but given the amount of injuries we're having i feel like it's time for the Caps to get a new healthcare provider. If this is how Medstar treats the Caps i wouldn't want to let them poke around inside me.

 

[um]

Nothing reassuring here…basically, I see the team is struggling but I’m not doing anything either way.

That’s good. If the team is tanking let it happen, there’s no quick fix here.

 

[Calicaps]

I don't see it as a problem at all. It tracks exactly with what I was talking about before. They got CMM some NHL time while guys were out and filled up his bank account. Then they sent him down for the rest of the year to get more work on the things they identified while he was up.

How is this a bad strategy?

This part is also potentially revealing, and consistent with what I said about this year being a planned swan song for the current lineup due to contract timing:

View attachment 616907

View attachment 616908

Then goes on to call out Kuzy, Carlson and Mantha.

Regarding d-men not being under contract:

View attachment 616909

Exactly as predicted. They're evaluating everyone this year. Probably 3/4 of the team are playing for their next contract, and they don't look like it.

View attachment 616911

And there it is.

I'm with @AlexBrovechkin8 in thinking a lot of Mantha's problems are usage-related and largely out of his control. (And yes I've been on Team Mantha since the start, but seriously.) He's been saddled with Eller almost all year. And last year he was shuffled around all over the place. He belongs in a top-6 role with a playmaking center. Give him real steady time on a line like that, and then if he's still an issue, ship him out.

 

[Devil Dancer]

If they're going to do that then staple him to Kuznetsov with a plug on the other side so Kuzy will have to use him as his primary passing target. Who knows, it might be good for both of them.

What I wouldn't do is play them with Ovie because then Kuzy will over-pass to #8. Which is fine if that's how the line is designed, but it's not a good place for Mantha.

 

[Calicaps]

I think BMac is pretty much spot on, with my only gripe being that he seems to absolve the coaching staff of any blame. He mentions they need more offense out of the top guys like Kuzy and that the team is different when Mantha is on his game and scoring… maybe if he played in a scoring role he’d score more? Mentioned the PP cannot go 0-for-21 or whatever… maybe there’s a scheme and coaching issue?

I do think they need to be aggressive and sell if they don’t go on a 12 wins in 15 games type run soon. Nothing wrong with calling a season lost and doing what you can to set yourself up for another bite at the apple next season. They’re in a pretty decent position actually where they can remake the look of this team pretty significantly this off-season if they play their cards right.

Everyone is on the clock here. Players and coaches alike. Lots of expiring contracts including Lavi's. Calling out the coaches only adds turmoil to the room. And we know how bad things can get then. I'm not defending this coaching staff, just saying that holding the players to account is a lot easier and less disruptive. They either get their shit together with Lavi at the helm or they don't and then yeah, sell guys for picks and younger players and let the team fall down the standings in search of a high pick.

This lends credibility to my belief that going into this season they were ready to not panic, still try to make the playoffs, but if not, be willing to take a half step back to get a better pick in a good draft and try to retool/bounce back next year if the skeleton crew can’t get it done.

This. And maybe more than one good pick in a good draft at that.

 

[g00n]

I'm glad a trade for a big salary player seems to be off the table at least for now, but I do get the sense that MacLellan isn't going to be proactive this season about selling off and is under the impression that Wilson (and maybe Backstrom) returning will turn the season around.

He mentioned the team has been better the 5 games before last night's game since Oshie returned but I don't really see it. They squeaked by a crappy Flyers team in OT, had a good showing against Calgary, had one good period against the Devils, beat a floundering Canucks team, and then stank against the Kraken (before stinking again last night). Doesn't seem any better than the rest of their season to be honest, where they'll have a good game or two and then prolonged periods of offense going dry. Nothing about their process has been encouraging since Oshie returned, and I suspect the same will be true when Wilson, Orlov, and Backstrom return.

I feel like Laviolette is going to get the rest of the season, the vets are going to play until they are mathematically eliminated in game 77 or whatever, maybe they trade Eller at the TDL, and then they'll punt until the offseason. Instead of getting ahead of the market and making moves as soon as possible to be impact for next year, they seem like they are going to drag their feet until they are basically forced to do something.

Laviolette has to go. Forsythe has got to go. Murray has got to go. I get that there have been injuries but it appears this staff is doing all they can to minimize what talent they do have.

This seems like just a more direct way of phrasing what Langway seemed to be saying, which I think was "start selling now and fire everyone regardless of whether they could've made the playoffs if healthy".

IOW nothing new.

GMBM is saying what he needs to say right now. He's trying to pump the team's tires a bit while also lighting a little bit of a fire. It doesn't rule out big changes in the offseason or a TDL firesale, or coaching changes if they squeak into the playoffs and crap out again.

What you and everyone else euphemistically keep referring to as "getting ahead of the market" is also known as "selling low in a buyer's market". There are few teams looking to make deals right now and if you have a squad that's faltering that's a double whammy against your potential returns in any transaction.

GMBM is not stupid. He didn't get his job by being someone's son in law or just some former player with name recognition. You may not agree with his management philosophy but he's only made a few mistakes, most of which are in hindsight.

If we're going to constantly complain about "asset management" then going around ringing bells and holding BOY FOR SALE signs is probably the worst asset management we can reach for right now.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Trading Kuzy can get you where Backstrom cant play, Strome choses greener pastures and youre left with who exactly as you top-6 centers?

Oshie, Mojo and CMM ofc!

Hard to trade for top-6 center.

In other words its a blow to the 895 strategy. Very risky.

Indeed it's very risky, especially if he plays like VV, Sammie, Burakovsky, and Siegenthaler.

 

[twabby]

This seems like just a more direct way of phrasing what Langway seemed to be saying, which I think was "start selling now and fire everyone regardless of whether they could've made the playoffs if healthy".

IOW nothing new.

GMBM is saying what he needs to say right now. He's trying to pump the team's tires a bit while also lighting a little bit of a fire. It doesn't rule out big changes in the offseason or a TDL firesale, or coaching changes if they squeak into the playoffs and crap out again.

What you and everyone else euphemistically keep referring to as "getting ahead of the market" is also known as "selling low in a buyer's market". There are few teams looking to make deals right now and if you have a squad that's faltering that's a double whammy against your potential returns in any transaction.

GMBM is not stupid. He didn't get his job by being someone's son in law or just some former player with name recognition. You may not agree with his management philosophy but he's only made a few mistakes, most of which are in hindsight.

If we're going to constantly complain about "asset management" then going around ringing bells and holding BOY FOR SALE signs is probably the worst asset management we can reach for right now.

Yes I think I’m at the point where I’d recommend firing the coaches I mentioned at the very least.

When it comes to Laviolette I think it’s best to think about it in terms of what his impact will be on next year’s version of the squad rather than if he could have gotten them into the postseason this year if the team was healthy. Right now I think he is doing more harm than good in preparing the team for next year, and for that reason I think he should be fired.

It’s a tough ask to be sure. He’s likely icing the roster he thinks will win the most games now, but with the math becoming more daunting every day I think the focus has to shift to next year. And with that shift in focus I think Laviolette has to go. He’s a win-now coach with a roster that can’t win now. Maybe it’s a little unfair to Laviolette but it’s not about being fair to him, it’s about getting ready for 2023-24 and beyond.

There are several sides to asset management. It’s not only about maximizing returns in a trade (though that of course is important), but it’s also about maximizing the assets you currently have. McMichael needs legitimate time at center in the NHL, where he was very good last year. Instead of maybe giving him 10-15 games at the end of the season and not really getting a sense of what he truly is as a player in the NHL, why not give him the last 50 or so games and really get a solid assessment of where he might stand next year? I think that’d be worth it over squeezing every last drop of value out of Lars Eller, for instance.

It’s less about selling players now and more about making them available now. There’s no harm saying you’re open for business. Maybe a team like Toronto (whose defense is decimated right now) or Florida (whose defense just stinks) will look to bolster their team now in order to remain in the playoff picture and take an interest in Jensen, Carlson, or Orlov and be willing to pay a premium. While buyers might be more desperate at the TDL, they’ll also have more options at that point as well. There’s so guarantee a return will be better then than it would be now. If they wait until the TDL, then guys like Matt Dumba and Shayne Gostisbehere being available could suppress the value of Jensen and Orlov, for instance.

I just kind of doubt anyone is even available now given the recent interview. He spoke as if Oshie returning made a significant impact and I suspect he thinks the same thing about Wilson and Orlov returning. It’s way too optimistic IMO.