Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[HeyMattyB]

No free agents really and not much on the trade market barring a surprise.

TBF, haven't several of GMBM's trades been significant surprises? Rumors of Caps-related free agent targets usually make the rounds, but the trades have repeatedly felt like they came out of nowhere.

 

[Misery74]

And I don't find those arguments very convincing. The math is what it is.

You mentioned the 14% chance that we had when we got Ovechkin. The value of 14% is way higher than 3%. The relationship isn't linear because of how probabilities work.

With 14%, you're a favorite to hit if you're given 4 tries.
With 3%, you're a dog to hit with 20 tries.

I just did sim lottery on tankathon until we moved up and it took 53 times and we got the 2nd pick.

3% is not worth the toll of losing.

We aren’t trying to lose. We aren’t tanking. We just stink.

I agree, rather than preparing the youth we have, we are trying to win games with guys who are past their prime, and don’t figure into the future.

A 3% chance isn’t a strategy, it’s a prayer.

 

[Brian23]

right. I recognize that Lavi wasn't playing him. but how do we know that that is why Mac traded him? we don't.

Ehhh, I disagree with that. All we have is context clues around what any GM/Team does at any given time, it's not as if they often come out and say "yeah, he wanted to much god damn money" or "yeah, coach hated him." as a reason for trading or not signing a player. The context around Vrana was his ice time was nose diving, he was routinely eating healthy scratches, and when he was played he was basically stapled to the bench when the game "mattered". If we can't use those context clues to pretty reasonably state Lavi didn't like him and Mac was trying to get someone in he would like/use, we basically can't have any discussions on the why or what a team is doing. Context clues are basically always all we have.

 

[Brian23]

TBF, haven't several of GMBM's trades been significant surprises? Rumors of Caps-related free agent targets usually make the rounds, but the trades have repeatedly felt like they came out of nowhere.

GMBM has always seemed to tell you what he's targeting, but the what and how is always quiet until it's done. There were no indications that we were going for Oshie, I don't remember anything about targeting Eller. About the closets I recall is his first year everyone assumed they'd target Niskanen, but that was mostly because we needed D and he was the top guy on the market. I think Orpik was a surprise with him too.

 

[bacchist]

What toll?

You don't think losing is detrimental to the team, players and fanbase?

We don't need to roll the dice 20 times. It's one shot. So 4 tries is just as irrelevant as 20 tries.

I guess we'll either win the lottery or we won't. It's 50/50 no matter what.

 

[pman25]

TBF, haven't several of GMBM's trades been significant surprises? Rumors of Caps-related free agent targets usually make the rounds, but the trades have repeatedly felt like they came out of nowhere.

Sure but the players themselves we acquired were speculated to be available for trades. I’m looking at who would theoretically be available for trades and I see Nick Schmaltz, a bunch of crap in Montreal, JT Miller, Brock Boeser, and Erik Karlsson…

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I understood why they were playing the vets over kids up until now. Coaches and athletes at that level are wired to keep pushing until it’s mathematically impossible for them to achieve something. Lavi is coaching for his job and doesn’t give a shit about player development (and nor should he, in his defense). Seeing a sell-off was probably a hit to Lavi’s pride and the pride of the veterans who have had success here. I would have suspected an “us against the world” push but it hasn’t happened.

At this point, with them all but mathematically eliminated from contention, GMBM needs to step in and ensure that they are playing the kids and that they’re being played in significant roles. Protas should not be on the 4th line. Smith shouldn’t even get a jersey. Mantha should be in the top six and on the PP. I’d even scratch Kuznetsov and bring him McMike to play 2C, but McMike and Lavi seemed to be like oil and water so maybe that isn’t the best idea in practicality. Irwin shouldn’t play again.

If Carlson and Jensen are healthy and I could waive a magic wand, for the rest of the season this would be my roster.

Ovi-Strome-Mantha
Milano-McMike-Wilson
Protas-Backstrom-Oshie
Sheary-Dowd-NAK

Sandin-Carlson
Alexeyev-Jensen
Fehervary-TvR

 

[g00n]

You don't think losing is detrimental to the team, players and fanbase?

Nobody likes to lose but not sure what that has to do with fans like us rooting for a better draft position?

Do you think what we say here is somehow destroying the lives of people who go to games or watch on TV?

The team and players have been there before and are doing their jobs. I'm not worried about them.

What I MIGHT be worried about is throwing young prospects into a meat grinder "for experience" when the vets have possibly given up. That can backfire but it's something many pro-tank people here have wanted for some time.

TBD on that.

 

[Misery74]

I understood why they were playing the vets over kids up until now. Coaches and athletes at that level are wired to keep pushing until it’s mathematically impossible for them to achieve something. Lavi is coaching for his job and doesn’t give a shit about player development (and nor should he, in his defense). Seeing a sell-off was probably a hit to Lavi’s pride and the pride of the veterans who have had success here. I would have suspected an “us against the world” push but it hasn’t happened.

At this point, with them all but mathematically eliminated from contention, GMBM needs to step in and ensure that they are playing the kids and that they’re being played in significant roles. Protas should not be on the 4th line. Smith shouldn’t even get a jersey. Mantha should be in the top six and on the PP. I’d even scratch Kuznetsov and bring him McMike to play 2C, but McMike and Lavi seemed to be like oil and water so maybe that isn’t the best idea in practicality. Irwin shouldn’t play again.

If Carlson and Jensen are healthy and I could waive a magic wand, for the rest of the season this would be my roster.

Ovi-Strome-Mantha
Milano-McMike-Wilson
Protas-Backstrom-Oshie
Sheary-Dowd-NAK

Sandin-Carlson
Alexeyev-Jensen
Fehervary-TvR

Take Sheary out too. It’s time. Put Jimi out there.

This is the reason I have been for Laviolette being ousted. His needs are not in the teams best interest.

 

[swansonsays]

**Disclaimer: Maybe I'm wrong**

Some of us want the younger guys called up, some of us do not. I personally thinks it's better to leave them in a winning atmosphere & winning locker room than bring them in to this dysfunction, but I can see both sides. I don't see the point of bringing them up to play Lavi's system for 10 games if he might not (hopefully won't?) be here next year? What if they are being left in Hershey because they are playing for the coach & system that will be in Washington next year? Perhaps decisions have already been made? In this scenario, it makes much more sense development wise to leave the youngsters in Hershey & let them go on a run. Am I right? Who knows. Time will tell.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Take Sheary out too. It’s time. Put Jimi out there.

This is the reason I have been for Laviolette being ousted. His needs are not in the teams best interest.

I get your point, I just don’t know if being ousted at this point makes sense unless they have his replacement signed and sealed and they want him to have a head start on getting to know the players and getting systems implemented. They’re not going to implement new systems with 10 games left for an interim coach and who on the current bench should be the interim HC if they went with an internal hire? Scott Allen is really the only option.

Let Laviolette play out the string but BMac should be dictating lineup choices so he and his staff can do evals.

Also Jimi is hurt. I wouldn’t mind seeing Ethen Frank but he doesn’t have a contract with Washington so he can’t come up. Snively and Anas are the only viable options I think from Hershey but I’m not sure if Anas has a contract with Washington either.

 

[Misery74]

I get your point, I just don’t know if being ousted at this point makes sense unless they have his replacement signed and sealed and they want him to have a head start on getting to know the players and getting systems implemented. They’re not going to implement new systems with 10 games left for an interim coach and who on the current bench should be the interim HC if they went with an internal hire? Scott Allen is really the only option.

Let Laviolette play out the string but BMac should be dictating lineup choices so he and his staff can do evals.

Also Jimi is hurt. I wouldn’t mind seeing Ethen Frank but he doesn’t have a contract with Washington so he can’t come up. Snively and Anas are the only viable options I think from Hershey but I’m not sure if Anas has a contract with Washington either.

I would be fine with Allen. 10 games left, I agree it’s tough.

I thought Jimi played the other day. I think he was hurt, but pretty sure he is back.

All in all, we let this fester for too long. A change now seems very unlikely. So we will get little use of these last meaningless games. AA at least is now getting a jersey.

 

[Brian23]

You don't think losing is detrimental to the team, players and fanbase?

The whole point is they're losing regardless...

 

[Jags]

But be careful what you wish for, because you're playing with fire when you start embracing failure.
...
I'm saying rooting for the team to lose is not the way

This is a little dramatic. At this point we're talking about a handful of games in either direction. A few games isn't going to destroy the atmosphere from any perspective.

Your take on the 3% is also a little defeatist. It's not all or nothing; a 3% shot at Bedard that either pays off or doesn't matter. A chance at a high pick in this draft could be a very good thing. It's not #1 or bust. Because there are a few elite prospects at the top of the draft, a pick there could help us whether we use it or trade it.

 

[Silky mitts]

I have someone in my life who feels the need on occasion to remind me that my rooting interests play no part in the results on the rink or field and this whole set up's purpose is to entertain, please allow to fill that role to whomever needs it

 

[usiel]

And I don't find those arguments very convincing. The math is what it is.

You mentioned the 14% chance that we had when we got Ovechkin. The value of 14% is way higher than 3%. The relationship isn't linear because of how probabilities work.

With 14%, you're a favorite to hit if you're given 4 tries.
With 3%, you're a dog to hit with 20 tries.

I just did sim lottery on tankathon until we moved up and it took 53 times and we got the 2nd pick.

3% is not worth the toll of losing.

First try got the #2 pick. Third try got #2 again. Sixteenth got the #1.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

First try got the #2 pick. Third try got #2 again. Sixteenth got the #1.

I’ll take #2. Fantilli would be a great consolation prize. He’d be a first overall pick in most other drafts.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I would be fine with Allen. 10 games left, I agree it’s tough.

I thought Jimi played the other day. I think he was hurt, but pretty sure he is back.

All in all, we let this fester for too long. A change now seems very unlikely. So we will get little use of these last meaningless games. AA at least is now getting a jersey.

You’re right, Lapierre returned to the lineup yesterday.

I do wonder if Allen is given consideration for the full time gig. He did well in Hershey and should be familiar with guys like McMike and Lapierre.

I also wonder if there’s any chance they hire a coach without proven NHL success since this could quite possibly be the last head coach Ovi plays for. Doubtful in my mind they’d go the unproven route which would seem to rule out guys like Halpern or Carberry.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Great news for JC74.

 

[Calicaps]

Well yea we’re all gonna let it play out…but the point being made is a retool likely won’t be possible without winning Bedard. Even if they manage to unload a big contract, who are they bringing in? No free agents really and not much on the trade market barring a surprise.

I think Langway has a pretty reasonable interpretation of what is gonna go down this offseason and there just isn’t a lot of room for a retool any way you slice it. Free agents can’t really be had and we don’t have much trade capital for a shake up anyway. It seems more likely we just play on and wind this era down with guys locked into the contracts they have. Yes, new coach helps and a Bedard or Fantilli even really changes the discussion, but retooling won’t really be possible. There’s too much here working against us. Not that they can’t necessarily remain competitive but doesn’t seem likely given where other teams in the East are in the process

Getting Bedard would be astounding and likely isn't going to happen, so if that's the benchmark then fine, it's hopeless. But I think that's absurd. It's possible to retool (not rebuild) through strategic trades, etc. The objective here it seems to me, barring something unexpected like winning the lottery, isn't to become a top tier team in a year or so. It's to become a playoff team again, be good enough to get in and to get Ovie his goals, and to keep improving through trades and the draft over the next few years. That does not sound impossible at all to me.

 

[Calicaps]

Ehhh, I disagree with that. All we have is context clues around what any GM/Team does at any given time, it's not as if they often come out and say "yeah, he wanted to much god damn money" or "yeah, coach hated him." as a reason for trading or not signing a player. The context around Vrana was his ice time was nose diving, he was routinely eating healthy scratches, and when he was played he was basically stapled to the bench when the game "mattered". If we can't use those context clues to pretty reasonably state Lavi didn't like him and Mac was trying to get someone in he would like/use, we basically can't have any discussions on the why or what a team is doing. Context clues are basically always all we have.

So he may have sat and been traded for the same reason but being sat may not have been the reason he was traded. Follow me? Or perhaps there were other reasons for both. I'm saying we don't know. I agree that all we have is clues and what bugs me is folks making declarative statements based on those as if they have/know the facts. It's one thing to speculate. It's another to decide in your own head that you know something (that you don't actually know) and then bitch about it and criticize the people involved based on your own imagined truth.

 

[bacchist]

First try got the #2 pick. Third try got #2 again. Sixteenth got the #1.

Stop, you're going to use up all the good luck!

 

[Ridley Simon]

You don't think losing is detrimental to the team, players and fanbase?

I guess we'll either win the lottery or we won't. It's 50/50 no matter what.

Not to the extent you are parroting here, no. For the remainder of the season, they could lose out here and it wouldn’t impact them globally going forward. No “12 game sample size” will make a lick of difference — unless some terrible injury occurs.

Repeated years of losing? Sure, that would be a problem. But that’s an Apple. We are talking about an orange.

 

[hb13xchamps]

You’re right, Lapierre returned to the lineup yesterday.

I do wonder if Allen is given consideration for the full time gig. He did well in Hershey and should be familiar with guys like McMike and Lapierre.

I also wonder if there’s any chance they hire a coach without proven NHL success since this could quite possibly be the last head coach Ovi plays for. Doubtful in my mind they’d go the unproven route which would seem to rule out guys like Halpern or Carberry.

I would not consider Scott Allen for the HC gig. Fine assist coach, but he had some terrible lineup decisions while in Hershey, like playing a defenseman at forward for the majority of the year and letting him run around like he was in Slap Shot. I think he primarily got the Hershey HC gig due to Carberry leaving late in the coaching cycle and there not being a ton of options available.

**Disclaimer: Maybe I'm wrong**

Some of us want the younger guys called up, some of us do not. I personally thinks it's better to leave them in a winning atmosphere & winning locker room than bring them in to this dysfunction, but I can see both sides. I don't see the point of bringing them up to play Lavi's system for 10 games if he might not (hopefully won't?) be here next year? What if they are being left in Hershey because they are playing for the coach & system that will be in Washington next year? Perhaps decisions have already been made? In this scenario, it makes much more sense development wise to leave the youngsters in Hershey & let them go on a run. Am I right? Who knows. Time will tell.

They shouldn’t just call up young guys to call them up. They should primarily focus on guys who may or may not be in the organization next year and if they can actually contribute to at the NHL level. More along the lines of a Pilot, LuJo etc.

 

[StrikingDistance]

One thing to celebrate: The last 10 games of Forsythe?

Lavi is gone too, but I'm more ecstatic this unidimentional cueball moose twit will be out.

Optimist speculation: New coaches leading to increased performance and therefore, Mantha on the right side will pot 15 PPGs next year and our PP% will be top 5. Yes, I may be day drinking. So what. lol