Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The top 5 teams of the last 15 years or so

Black Hawks - in total tank mode and I think alot of people here wanted us to do this

Kings - Did a retool and are back in the playoffs with a nice combo for young players and the older core. I think this is what GMBM is going for

Bruins - Went all in and are going to win the presidents but will be alot different team next season

Pens - Alot like us with an aging core still trying to sneak into the playoffs. No real prospects or hope after Sid and Geno retire

Tampa - had a Great run but lost most of their depth after the salary cap caught up to them

Caps - I dont think i need to go over this

 

[Calicaps]

Why don’t emojis work for me any more? Is it a me thing or an HF thing?

Test:

Same problem here... just a bunch of question marks. To which I say WT??????

 

[HeyMattyB]

This is what I see:

 

[Misery74]

What are we doing with Mantha? He has another year left.

Irony, we got rid of Vrana because Laviolette didn’t want to play him.

 

[twabby]

Same problem here... just a bunch of question marks. To which I say WT??????

Yeah and I looked for an option on my HF control panel to enabled emojis but no such option is there?

It happens on both iOS and on Chrome on my desktop.

Above for reference

 

[Calicaps]

What are we doing with Mantha? He has another year left.

Irony, we got rid of Vrana because Laviolette didn’t want to play him.

How do you know that why they traded Vrana? Not being snarky, asking for real.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Thinking we will win if we lose enough is every bit as silly.

It’s the rules man. Gotta be bad to be good. Not sure why it pains you so?

 

[Calicaps]

Obviously we'll see. My point has been that the idea of a retool is a lot more appealing than the reality turns out to be due to the numerous constraints they'll be operating under. To need so much so quickly is not a strong position to be in obviously. I'd wager they will be forced to become more patient because if they're honest there's no real way around to fast-track this. They can try some swaps. They can try a new coach. But in terms of substantially elevating their ceiling again, yeah, I don't see that happening in one off-season largely via trade. In general it's foolish to expect anything other than the draft to be what gets an organization back on track. To do so by other means is an incredibly tough way of building in a hurry, particularly when dealing with core assets that have to be considered diminished assets. It would be one thing if they maybe had a ton of cap space and it was a strong UFA class. Neither is the case.

There's just a lot more downside potential than upside in the near-term. The degree of difficulty is immense. More likely I would guess MacLellan ultimately pivots to broadening out the time frame, buying himself more time to extract full value for some assets and letting the marketplace develop for more opportunities to present themselves. Pinning their near-term hopes on what happens to be available within a three to four-month off-season window is such a narrow needle to thread. They need a Hail Mary type off-season basically. A healthy Carlson & Jensen will help but, I mean, that still leaves Sandin & Fehervary in the top four and I don't know how viable that is. Their goaltending also increasingly looks suspect. So, yeah, there's just a lot more questions than answers at this stage. I would trust the trend lines until something pretty seismic happens.

This sentence is where you lose me. How can you possibly know that the idea is better than the reality when we don't know the reality yet? It's a work in progress. It may well fail. It also might succeed. But you're predisposed to believe it will fail. Indeed you're effectively saying it's already a failure. I'm just gonna let it play out before I declare it a "Hail Mary" or a hopeless case.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

This sentence is where you lose me. How can you possibly know that the idea is better than the reality when we don't know the reality yet? It's a work in progress. It may well fail. It also might succeed. But you're predisposed to believe it will fail. Indeed you're effectively saying it's already a failure. I'm just gonna let it play out before I declare it a "Hail Mary" or a hopeless case.

I’m guessing his premise is that the Caps contract structure will prohibit them from being able to do so but I’m not sure?

 

[Brian23]

How do you know that why they traded Vrana? Not being snarky, asking for real.

He was eating healthy scratches, getting 10 minutes a night, and was routinely sat down in the 3rd.

I'm honestly surprised, in retrospec, that he even got 10 minutes a night with Lavi.

 

[Calicaps]

He was eating healthy scratches, getting 10 minutes a night, and was routinely sat down in the 3rd.

I'm honestly surprised, in retrospec, that he even got 10 minutes a night with Lavi.

right. I recognize that Lavi wasn't playing him. but how do we know that that is why Mac traded him? we don't.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

this is an important fact. if you think the goal here is to be top-tier team in a year or two, you're likely to be disappointed. if you think the goal is to get back to wild card-qualifier and good enough to get Ovie to 895 then there's probably reason for hope.

Which might not look all that different than the last 1-2 years roster looked.

 

[trick9]

Playoff chances down from 1.8 % to 1.0 %. 0.2 % chance of reaching the 2nd round.

Detroit - Florida and Pittspurgh - Ottawa are playing head-to-head tonight.

 

[Corby78]

Thinking we will win if we lose enough is every bit as silly.

Well what’s the better option? Our farm system
Has been on the low end of the league for years, we have tons of money in older vets who aren’t playing up to their salary, we don’t have but a couple guys who are ready to break into the NHL the next couple seasons. We were falling out of the playoffs as is, and BMGM knew it hence the “seller” at the TDL.

Did you want to be a buyer? Trade picks to do a cap dump so we could bring in Kane, do a Hail Mary from the 8th seed and be in an even worse roster spot next year? Every good team rises and falls, Chicago, Detroit, Colorado, Pitt, on and on the best teams come and go. It’s our time now, the only question will be how fast can we get back. Doing this now gives us a better chance at making it quickly. It’s never a guarantee, but you put yourself in the best possible position. And right now that’s as high on the draft board as possible.

 

[SkinsFan09]

Thinking we will win if we lose enough is every bit as silly.

If we had been buyers this year, it's malpractice. It's the type of shortsighted nonsense GMGM would have done. We need talent in the farm system and we need cap space.

 

[bacchist]

At this point everyone is just beating a dead horse. I'm just saying y'all seem like Sabres fans cheering for their team to lose. You could get exactly what you want... a losing team, toxic atmosphere, and a really good draft pick. But be careful what you wish for, because you're playing with fire when you start embracing failure.

If we had been buyers this year, it's malpractice. It's the type of shortsighted nonsense GMGM would have done. We need talent in the farm system and we need cap space.

I haven't once suggested we should have been buyers. I'm saying rooting for the team to lose is not the way

 

[Kuz]

At this point everyone is just beating a dead horse. I'm just saying y'all seem like Sabres fans cheering for their team to lose. You could get exactly what you want... a losing team, toxic atmosphere, and a really good draft pick. But be careful what you wish for, because you're playing with fire when you start embracing failure.

Look at when the last time Caps was bad they drafted Ocechkin and Backstrom. After that we have had 15 years where the Caps have been competetive. Some teams always fail and are never able to put things together even with several good picks, but I believe the management would be able to get us back fast again if they get some high picks to work with.

Some of our highly paid players arent the studs they once where any longer and the team needs to add talent and the best place for that is in the draft and the higher the pick the better chance ther is to get top talent. Its time to try and get younger in general and get players in who will be part of the next group.

 

[g00n]

I haven't once suggested we should have been buyers. I'm saying rooting for the team to lose is not the way

It's just deferred or delayed gratification.

Delayed gratification - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not to insult your intelligence by posting that but citing a reference.

Sometimes you have to go through hardships to improve. Fans rooting for the team to lose is part of the improvement process now and then.

That said I would not be rooting for them to lose just to go from 15th to 14th, but the difference between 0% and 3% chance in the draft is enough to have a stake in the outcome.

 

[Misery74]

Playoff chances down from 1.8 % to 1.0 %. 0.2 % chance of reaching the 2nd round.

Detroit - Florida and Pittspurgh - Ottawa are playing head-to-head tonight.

We need to see a much different lineup. Let’s start with Jimi and CMM over Smith and Sheary.

 

[bacchist]

That said I would not be rooting for them to lose just to go from 15th to 14th, but the difference between 0% and 3% chance in the draft is enough to have a stake in the outcome.

I think we probably value a 3% shot much differently.

We could have 3% for 20 years and still have less than 50% chance of hitting a single time.

 

[g00n]

I think we probably value a 3% shot much differently.

We could have 3% for 20 years and still have less than 50% chance of hitting a single time.

I and others have tried to convince you this is not the issue by showing examples of teams beating the odds in the recent past, and presenting logical reasons why 3% is better than 0% and worth fighting for.

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

How are the years which each are having - which, in terms of results and confidence, are galactically better than what they did here - not a serious indictment of how goalies are managed in this organization #FireScottMurray Hawks fan here who has been to plenty of Caps games this year. Do...

forums.hfboards.com

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

There's a much longer list of teams that didn't move up in the draft. You don't throw away a chance at a superstar, no matter how small. It doesn't matter how many teams fail you have to get in on the action and let the ping pong balls fall. Remember the Caps jumped 2 teams to get...

forums.hfboards.com

Speculation: - Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

There's a much longer list of teams that didn't move up in the draft. You don't throw away a chance at a superstar, no matter how small. It doesn't matter how many teams fail you have to get in on the action and let the ping pong balls fall. Remember the Caps jumped 2 teams to get...

forums.hfboards.com

Not sure what else to tell you.

 

[bacchist]

I and others have tried to convince you this is not the issue by showing examples of teams beating the odds in the recent past, and presenting logical reasons why 3% is better than 0% and worth fighting for.

And I don't find those arguments very convincing. The math is what it is.

You mentioned the 14% chance that we had when we got Ovechkin. The value of 14% is way higher than 3%. The relationship isn't linear because of how probabilities work.

With 14%, you're a favorite to hit if you're given 4 tries.
With 3%, you're a dog to hit with 20 tries.

I just did sim lottery on tankathon until we moved up and it took 53 times and we got the 2nd pick.

3% is not worth the toll of losing.

 

[g00n]

And I don't find those arguments very convincing. The math is what it is.

You mentioned the 14% chance that we had when we got Ovechkin. The value of 14% is way higher than 3%. The relationship isn't linear because of how probabilities work.

With 14%, you're a favorite to hit if you're given 4 tries.
With 3%, you're a dog to hit with 20 tries.

I just did sim lottery on tankathon until we moved up and it took 53 times and we got the 2nd pick.

3% is not worth the toll of losing.

What toll?

We don't need to roll the dice 20 times. It's one shot. So 4 tries is just as irrelevant as 20 tries.

 

[YippieKaey]

And I don't find those arguments very convincing. The math is what it is.

You mentioned the 14% chance that we had when we got Ovechkin. The value of 14% is way higher than 3%. The relationship isn't linear because of how probabilities work.

With 14%, you're a favorite to hit if you're given 4 tries.
With 3%, you're a dog to hit with 20 tries.

I just did sim lottery on tankathon until we moved up and it took 53 times and we got the 2nd pick.

3% is not worth the toll of losing.

The options as i see them are:

1. Lose a bit and miss playoffs to get a draft pick at 15isch.

2. Lose a lot and miss playoffs to get a top 5 draft pick.

Easy choice with 11 games remaining.

 

[pman25]

This sentence is where you lose me. How can you possibly know that the idea is better than the reality when we don't know the reality yet? It's a work in progress. It may well fail. It also might succeed. But you're predisposed to believe it will fail. Indeed you're effectively saying it's already a failure. I'm just gonna let it play out before I declare it a "Hail Mary" or a hopeless case.

Well yea we’re all gonna let it play out…but the point being made is a retool likely won’t be possible without winning Bedard. Even if they manage to unload a big contract, who are they bringing in? No free agents really and not much on the trade market barring a surprise.

I think Langway has a pretty reasonable interpretation of what is gonna go down this offseason and there just isn’t a lot of room for a retool any way you slice it. Free agents can’t really be had and we don’t have much trade capital for a shake up anyway. It seems more likely we just play on and wind this era down with guys locked into the contracts they have. Yes, new coach helps and a Bedard or Fantilli even really changes the discussion, but retooling won’t really be possible. There’s too much here working against us. Not that they can’t necessarily remain competitive but doesn’t seem likely given where other teams in the East are in the process