Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[crab]

Carlson and maybe Kuznetsov are really the only players they can move on to properly retool. Backstrom has negative value at this point and should be playing 3rd line minutes.

With that said, I expect them to keep alol three and continue to be mediocre until Ovechkin retires in ~3 years.

 

[twabby]

I think if Sandin continues to show well through the end of the season they can certainly look to trade Carlson. Injuries ruined this season but hopefully he has enough of a good (regular season) track record to convince teams to take a shot with him, though as g00n and others mentioned his value was probably higher a few years ago.

They’d need a haul to make it worth it though. As annoying as he is his absence was noticed this year offensively. Sandin can make up for most of it but with Orlov also gone they’re missing any sort of offensive playdriver on the blueline besides Sandin.

 

[YippieKaey]

I think if Sandin continues to show well through the end of the season they can certainly look to trade Carlson. Injuries ruined this season but hopefully he has enough of a good (regular season) track record to convince teams to take a shot with him, though as g00n and others mentioned his value was probably higher a few years ago.

They’d need a haul to make it worth it though. As annoying as he is his absence was noticed this year offensively. Sandin can make up for most of it but with Orlov also gone they’re missing any sort of offensive playdriver on the blueline besides Sandin.

John Carlson + Mantha + CMM for Siegenthaler & Jesper Bratt?

 

[twabby]

John Carlson + Mantha + CMM for Siegenthaler & Jesper Bratt?

NJ says no. They’re probably the team that needs Carlson the least for one, and giving up two instrumental pieces to their team makes no sense.

My hope is still that Elias Pettersson becomes disgruntled in Vancouver because they are an aimless franchise with a meddling owner and a toxic culture, but I feel like teams too often cow their players into re-signing. Maybe like a 5% chance of Pettersson demanding a trade but it’s not zero! Eichel did it not too long ago!

I’d give up the farm for Pettersson. Trade Carlson to make it happen. Whatever it takes! Aside from that I don’t really have a ton of impactful moves that I can come up with that makes trading Carlson a slam dunk. There can certainly be other trades that make sense though. I just can’t think of one.

 

[Calicaps]

In the 4 games since the TDL the caps have taken 5 of 8 available points. It feels like a different team and there's that little pest in the back of your head that says "maybe they can still make the playoffs".

But that's still a 62% points pace, which is what they needed to start delivering a month ago. On Feb 10th they were at 40% points% in their last 10 games and compared to everyone else fighting for a WC spot they need to probably hit around 65%. As they kept losing that number crept up to an unsustainable 75% or so.

Over the past month the caps have dropped 3 places in the standings and based on current 10 game points pace could still be passed by OTT and maybe BUF due to games in hand.

Though OTT and BUF have cooled off some, the real obstacle is the WC teams in front of them (NYI, PIT, FLA) are all maintaining that 65% 10 game pace.

To have a reasonable chance over the final 15 games the Caps probably need somewhere close to an 80% points%, or 24 points out of 30 available. That's basically 12 wins in 15 games, or 4 out of every 5...outright or some combo that nets 8 of 10 available points like 3 wins and 2 OTL. If they lose 4 or so games without gaining any points, or fall too far behind that pace, they're done.

I guess it could happen. Addition by subtraction is a thing, and lighting a fire with new faces bring possibilities, however remote.

Current odds for Caps to win the Cup: +20000

That's worth a dollar bet just in case. LOL

Agree it's a pretty serious long shot. But maybe that's fun to watch at least. And yes, thow a buck in that pot.

But also, your point about the team feeling different to me is key: two things have happened so far...
1. they have, in fact, gotten younger and faster
2. (most of) the UFAs have clarity; they've either been traded or extended and that takes uncertainty out of the mix for them and their teammates

There's more to be done for sure, but the early returns on the first stage of the retool are positive. They're playing looser. They're playing faster. And they are seeing more success as a consequence of the changes. That builds confidence and buy-in in the plan going forward.

Regarding trading Carlson, I just think most potential trading partners are gonna want to see that he can still play after his injury. We've all seen how a head injury can derail a player. So I still think, if he's moved, it will be after he's played some again.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Probably but if we're going to talk about freeing up cap space, or how much we'd get for trading someone like Wilson, imagine what we could to to the top 6 forwards with an additional $8M in cap space and whatever trade boon Carlson would net.

How would you feel about an Ovie-Kuzy-Tarasenko top line for the next few years, for example? Plus whatever draft picks and prospects we'd receive from trading Carlson?

shitty because it's still broken....

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think if Sandin continues to show well through the end of the season they can certainly look to trade Carlson. Injuries ruined this season but hopefully he has enough of a good (regular season) track record to convince teams to take a shot with him, though as g00n and others mentioned his value was probably higher a few years ago.

They’d need a haul to make it worth it though. As annoying as he is his absence was noticed this year offensively. Sandin can make up for most of it but with Orlov also gone they’re missing any sort of offensive playdriver on the blueline besides Sandin.

I would guess Carlsons current value is what Brent Burns was last season.


It does not look like Carlson has much value.

 

[twabby]

I would guess Carlsons current value is what Brent Burns was last season.


It does not look like Carlson has much value.

Burns was largely a cap dump from SJ’s point of view. Burns was also 4 years older when traded than Carlson will be this summer.

I don’t know what the highest bidder thinks of Carlson right now though I suspect it’s much higher than Burns (barring Carlson’s injury being very bad). But yeah I think Washington may have missed their opportunity to trade him and get a great return.

 

[YippieKaey]

If Carlson returns to similar form as this year we have a great 1-2 punch with him and Sandin. Guys like Mantha and maybe Oshie (as much as i love him) would be higher up on the "need to trade" list. And we need to find ourselves a Hathaway 2.0

 

[Holtbyisms]

For the "more to come this summer" crowd... What realistically do you see happening? We send Mantha and a pick somewhere for future considerations to free up space and sign a FA? If that's the only thing we do were not going to look much different. 0 chance that Ovi, Carlson, Backstrom, Oshie or Kuznetsov are going anywhere. Does replacing Mantha with another scoring threat open our window? The defense is pretty much set. Expect one dumpster dive lefty to play with TVR to be signed who can put up points. Gostisbehere feel like a BMac kinda guy. The goaltending is set. Some shuffling of the top 6 depending on what combos you like but it's mostly set. Just not seeing the ability to "retool" with the assets we have available.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

For the "more to come this summer" crowd... What realistically do you see happening? We send Mantha and a pick somewhere for future considerations to free up space and sign a FA? If that's the only thing we do were not going to look much different. 0 chance that Ovi, Carlson, Backstrom, Oshie or Kuznetsov are going anywhere. Does replacing Mantha with another scoring threat open our window? The defense is pretty much set. Expect one dumpster dive lefty to play with TVR to be signed who can put up points. Gostisbehere feel like a BMac kinda guy. The goaltending is set. Some shuffling of the top 6 depending on what combos you like but it's mostly set. Just not seeing the ability to "retool" with the assets we have available.

Yep. Until management wakes up and realizes this core ain’t it anymore, and that some modification would be beneficial…nothing will change.

Hell, Ovi is going to have a hard time reaching the record with the core in its current state. That might be the only saving grace for causing change.

Agree it's a pretty serious long shot. But maybe that's fun to watch at least. And yes, thow a buck in that pot.

But also, your point about the team feeling different to me is key: two things have happened so far...
1. they have, in fact, gotten younger and faster
2. (most of) the UFAs have clarity; they've either been traded or extended and that takes uncertainty out of the mix for them and their teammates

There's more to be done for sure, but the early returns on the first stage of the retool are positive. They're playing looser. They're playing faster. And they are seeing more success as a consequence of the changes. That builds confidence and buy-in in the plan going forward.

Regarding trading Carlson, I just think most potential trading partners are gonna want to see that he can still play after his injury. We've all seen how a head injury can derail a player. So I still think, if he's moved, it will be after he's played some again.

To be fair they are most likely playing looser because their playoff hopes are gone.

 

[bacchist]

 

[Raikkonen]

watching interview with orlov
he said he was shocked to discover some details/systems they are teaching players

unfortunately its in russian

 

[twabby]

View attachment 668088

Suddenly have the urge to plot GAR vs. cap hit

How low can a correlation coefficient go?!

 

[Calicaps]

For the "more to come this summer" crowd... What realistically do you see happening? We send Mantha and a pick somewhere for future considerations to free up space and sign a FA? If that's the only thing we do were not going to look much different. 0 chance that Ovi, Carlson, Backstrom, Oshie or Kuznetsov are going anywhere. Does replacing Mantha with another scoring threat open our window? The defense is pretty much set. Expect one dumpster dive lefty to play with TVR to be signed who can put up points. Gostisbehere feel like a BMac kinda guy. The goaltending is set. Some shuffling of the top 6 depending on what combos you like but it's mostly set. Just not seeing the ability to "retool" with the assets we have available.

Sure, if you believe Mac isn't open to moving any of those guys then okay. But I disagree. Ovie's obviously not getting traded, and I think 19 is untouchable per Ted, but that's probably it for the absolute keepers. Doesn't mean all or even any of the rest get moved, but I think Mac is open to it.

I'd say Kuzy is the best option for a trade because he's a total waste of space but has such a tantalizing skillset. Carlson is tough to move before he's even returned from injury, so maybe he's on the block in season next year. Oshie... that probably hurts the room, but it's not out of the question.

Mantha hopefully goes, and I am not in the camp that thinks he's a giveaway. He's still under 30 and is only signed for 1 more season. Some GM could take a chance on a rebound year.

So tl;dr: I think Mac has a plan and is pursuing it and has already demonstrated that he's willing to move guys.

 

[Raikkonen]

i get the vibe that orlov would consider caps offer if there will be one

 

[bacchist]

Suddenly have the urge to plot GAR vs. cap hit

How low can a correlation coefficient go?!

 

[Raikkonen]

I'd say Kuzy is the best option for a trade because he's a total waste of space but has such a tantalizing skillset. Carlson is tough to move before he's even returned from injury, so maybe he's on the block in season next year. Oshie... that probably hurts the room, but it's not out of the question.

He's not a total waste. Once Strome and Backstrom are top-6 centers Kuzy's absence will be felt. That's why he's still here.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

i get the vibe that orlov would consider caps offer if there will be one

Would we trade a pick to dump Mantha and sign Orlov? I would Be OK with that

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Obviously you don’t hope to replace Kuzy with Backstrom.

 

[bacchist]

He's not a total waste. Once Strome and Backstrom are top-6 centers Kuzy's absence will be felt. That's why he's still here.

This is like an abusive spouse saying you can't leave because nobody else would want you and you'll end up alone.

Kuznetsov is one of the worst players in the entire league this year.

 

[Corby78]

JC was also on the team in Oct/Nov when they were stinking and many here wanted to blow it all up.

He's a good regular season player but he's been ass in the playoffs for 4 years running. His $8M cap hit is 4x what Hagelin's was and people were apoplectic about how much cap space he was eating up. Same for Oshie and others.

Why should JC be immune? Especially when we see other D-men who have gone unused that were perfectly capable of running the PP like Orlov?

Immune? No, he has not done his part in the playoffs since 2018. And his defensive play has dropped. I’m not sure how much has been nagging injuries, but there has been a drop in play. However; in my list of problems/fixes that need to happen 74 isn’t in my top 3. Neither is TJ. As an overal 1D I would have rather kept Orlov, but we traded the guy that we could at the moment. Would love to get him back.

 

[Calicaps]

Immune? No, he has not done his part in the playoffs since 2018. And his defensive play has dropped. I’m not sure how much has been nagging injuries, but there has been a drop in play. However; in my list of problems/fixes that need to happen 74 isn’t in my top 3. Neither is TJ. As an overal 1D I would have rather kept Orlov, but we traded the guy that we could at the moment. Would love to get him back.

Would love to get Orlov back too, but after the run he's had and especially if he kills it in the post-season it's at least a 7 x 8 deal. Not sure it's any better of an idea to sign him 'til he's nearly 40 than it was before the trade.

 

[g00n]

View attachment 668088

Any goals-related stat that has Ovechkin as 2nd worst on this team is probably a garbage stat.

 

[bacchist]

Any goals-related stat that has Ovechkin as 2nd worst on this team is probably a garbage stat.

Not sure what to tell you. It seems to be a fairly well regarded stat.

Though his GAR is 12.2% percentile in the league, but his xGAR is 56.8% percentile. So maybe there is some element of bad luck there. Potentially it could be just average instead of quite bad.