Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[pman25]

Would love to get Orlov back too, but after the run he's had and especially if he kills it in the post-season it's at least a 7 x 8 deal. Not sure it's any better of an idea to sign him 'til he's nearly 40 than it was before the trade.

Still not sure how Orlov gets more than what Lindholm got which is 6.5 aav x 8 and Lindholm is a couple years younger

 

[g00n]

Not sure what to tell you. It seems to be a fairly well regarded stat.

Though his GAR is 12.2% percentile in the league, but his xGAR is 56.8% percentile. So maybe there is some element of bad luck there. Potentially it could be just average instead of quite bad.

Ovie has 36 goals in 62 games played. The next closest is Oshie at 17...less than half of what Ovie has scored.

Ovie is chasing Gretzky for best goal scorer of all time and has broken countless records.

This stat is saying he's 2nd worst on the team in a goal scoring metric.

It's pure trash by any measure you want to use, especially the most important one which should be the first applied: common sense.

 

[twabby]

Ovie has 36 goals in 62 games played. The next closest is Oshie at 17...less than half of what Ovie has scored.

Ovie is chasing Gretzky for best goal scorer of all time and has broken countless records.

This stat is saying he's 2nd worst on the team in a goal scoring metric.

It's pure trash by any measure you want to use, especially the most important one which should be the first applied: common sense.

Where is his defensive impact accounted for in this analysis?

For the record I love Alex Ovechkin. He's my favorite athlete of all-time. But come on, he's one of if not the worst defensive forward in the entire NHL.

 

[crazy8888]

Where is his defensive impact accounted for in this analysis?

For the record I love Alex Ovechkin. He's my favorite athlete of all-time. But come on, he's one of if not the worst defensive forward in the entire NHL.

Damn. I know everybody is mad we won a game but why you taking your anger our on Ovi? Even in Mike Milburry days Ovi was not called worst defensive player in nhl.

 

[twabby]

Damn. I know everybody is mad we won a game but why you taking your anger our on Ovi? Even in Mike Milburry days Ovi was not called worst defensive player in nhl.

I'm actually happy they're winning because unless they win the lottery I want them to trade their first round pick this year!

I'm not in the business of calling Ovechkin out because of what he's done for the franchise and the city. It's why I generally don't call out when he has bad games or whatever. But I'm also not in the business of letting people unfairly criticize statistical measures. Because if there's one thing I love more than an exciting, dynamic, charismatic legend of an athlete it's numbers and graphs.

I am curious who people think is worse defensively than Ovechkin though. Like how do you define worse when it comes to defensive impact? And how the hell do you have time to watch all 32 teams play and compile all of these opinions and then rank players!

 

[crazy8888]

I'm actually happy they're winning because unless they win the lottery I want them to trade their first round pick this year!

I'm not in the business of calling Ovechkin out because of what he's done for the franchise and the city. It's why I generally don't call out when he has bad games or whatever. But I'm also not in the business of letting people unfairly criticize statistical measures. Because if there's one thing I love more than an exciting, dynamic, charismatic legend of an athlete it's numbers and graphs.

I am curious who people think is worse defensively than Ovechkin though. Like how do you define worse when it comes to defensive impact? And how the hell do you have time to watch all 32 teams play and compile all of these opinions and then rank players!

I mean you are right. Unless someone watches all 32 teams on the regular you really can't say who is the the worst and who is the best. Statistics do give us a clue allthough they do not always tell the whole story. There will always be anomolies and its best to weigh all available data including what you actually see on the ice.

My opinion is mostly based on watching the games. I cant argue that Ovechkin doesent have moments where he looks lazy on defense, he always had those moments. But i also see him make smart plays in his own zone whether its getting the puck out or patiently holding on to the puck and giving it to one of our d to maintain posession. I mean there are lots of examples of good and bad but i think overall i would put Ovi somewhere right in the middle of the pact.
I also try to pay attention to other teams superstars in their own end and frankly not many of them are doing much more than Ovi.

 

[Raikkonen]

if they keep expensive forwards and dont get top-4 d ill be raging. that kind of mild raging because why worry about them seriously at this point

signing orlov into retirement is potentially bad but having all suspects at F is actually bad which is worse than some fictional potential

ps: it doesnt look like they are interested in top4 ld anymore, yeah

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[twabby]

I mean you are right. Unless someone watches all 32 teams on the regular you really can't say who is the the worst and who is the best. Statistics do give us a clue allthough they do not always tell the whole story. There will always be anomolies and its best to weigh all available data including what you actually see on the ice.

My opinion is mostly based on watching the games. I cant argue that Ovechkin doesent have moments where he looks lazy on defense, he always had those moments. But i also see him make smart plays in his own zone whether its getting the puck out or patiently holding on to the puck and giving it to one of our d to maintain posession. I mean there are lots of examples of good and bad but i think overall i would put Ovi somewhere right in the middle of the pact.
I also try to pay attention to other teams superstars in their own end and frankly not many of them are doing much more than Ovi.

If I recall correctly Ovechkin is actually one of the stronger zone-exit forwards in the league according to the microstats. It should help his defensive numbers a bit, but I suspect many people look at a player's defensive impact solely as in-zone defending vs. how players defend on the entirety of the ice.

I think a lot of Ovechkin's defensive shortcomings actually appear in the offensive zone, which lead to a ton of transition chances against. Same thing with Kuznetsov. I think it's why Kuznetsov is a pretty decent penalty killer but also dreadful defensively at even strength. As a penalty killer he doesn't have to worry about his offensive zone play and puck management in the offensive zone as much. It's also why Ovechkin is still a fine option when the opponent pulls their goalie at the end of the game: he's not going to have to defend rush chances against or maintain possession in the offensive zone.

 

[Calicaps]

Still not sure how Orlov gets more than what Lindholm got which is 6.5 aav x 8 and Lindholm is a couple years younger

because IINM he can't get 8 years so his aav is likely to be higher.

 

[twabby]

NHL Player Cards: Washington Capitals

Data visualizations for each relevant player on the Washington Capitals, stylized as hockey cards.

theathletic.com

 

[twabby]

I'm at the point where I say just extend Sandin for 8 years this summer to try to keep the AAV down and to pay for his prime years. I don't need to see him play another season to feel comfortable with him as a mainstay going forward.

He might want to bet on himself next season but with Carlson (probably) returning he might not get the same counting stats that he's going to accumulate the rest of this regular season. He might also just want that long-term security locked up after not being trusted in Toronto.

 

[Devil Dancer]

NHL Player Cards: Washington Capitals

Data visualizations for each relevant player on the Washington Capitals, stylized as hockey cards.

theathletic.com

View attachment 668346

Don't show this to his agent.

 

[Carlzner]

There better be a clause in his extension to change his jersey number

 

[EYEuhFRAYtee]

Embrace the 38!

 

[BiPolar Caps]

.38 Caliber

(Smith & Wesson, model 10 and model 60 stainless steel, standards both of them or as we use to call them, wheel guns)

 

[g00n]

.38 Caliber

(Smith & Wesson, model 10 and model 60 stainless steel, standards both of them or as we use to call them, wheel guns)

38 Special

probably won't catch on in a city where "Bullets" became taboo and Joe B stopped saying "bullet" to describe a hard shot and changed it to "BB"

 

[Holtbyisms]

Sure, if you believe Mac isn't open to moving any of those guys then okay. But I disagree. Ovie's obviously not getting traded, and I think 19 is untouchable per Ted, but that's probably it for the absolute keepers. Doesn't mean all or even any of the rest get moved, but I think Mac is open to it.

I'd say Kuzy is the best option for a trade because he's a total waste of space but has such a tantalizing skillset. Carlson is tough to move before he's even returned from injury, so maybe he's on the block in season next year. Oshie... that probably hurts the room, but it's not out of the question.

Mantha hopefully goes, and I am not in the camp that thinks he's a giveaway. He's still under 30 and is only signed for 1 more season. Some GM could take a chance on a rebound year.

So tl;dr: I think Mac has a plan and is pursuing it and has already demonstrated that he's willing to move guys.

I like the way you think and I wish our ownership group and GM did too but I also think you're tremendously over valuing what we have to trade. You call Kuzy a total waste of space... professional NHL GMs and talent evaluators see the same things we do. Not getting anything if value back for him. Certainly not another 1st line center. Nobody is taking that Carlson contract after he just missed a whole season getting blasted in the head with a puck and Oshie is a cap dump at this point because he can only play 40-50 games a year. There's a chance you could dump one or two of them as cap dumps and then trade other assets(picks and prospects) for good players with the acquired cap room but that feels like stripping the organization completely bare and I'm not buying that's the direction Mac is going to go either.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Crazy that both of Ted teams Wiz and Caps are in the same place right now. #8-12 draft pick with no hope for the playoffs. Overpaid core that we cant move off from. Spending to the Max on overpaid players Beal and Backstrom we should have walked away from with contracts that cripple the teams chances to contend.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Crazy that both of Ted teams Wiz and Caps are in the same place right now. #8-12 draft pick with no hope for the playoffs. Overpaid core that we cant move off from. Spending to the Max on overpaid players Beal and Backstrom we should have walked away from with contracts that cripple the teams chances to contend.

Crazy, or predictable? This is how Ted operates.

 

[Calicaps]

I like the way you think and I wish our ownership group and GM did too but I also think you're tremendously over valuing what we have to trade. You call Kuzy a total waste of space... professional NHL GMs and talent evaluators see the same things we do. Not getting anything if value back for him. Certainly not another 1st line center. Nobody is taking that Carlson contract after he just missed a whole season getting blasted in the head with a puck and Oshie is a cap dump at this point because he can only play 40-50 games a year. There's a chance you could dump one or two of them as cap dumps and then trade other assets(picks and prospects) for good players with the acquired cap room but that feels like stripping the organization completely bare and I'm not buying that's the direction Mac is going to go either.

Except Kuzy has been great in the past. And look at what just happened with Orlov. You don't think some GM is gonna think they can rekindle the Kuzy Magic? I do. That's why I referenced his tantalizing skillset. It's still there. We see it in flashes. Someone will take a chance on that.

Agree on Carlson, but that's only now. Everyone including the Caps need to see what he can bring after that injury.

Oshie is 100% not a cap dump. Yes he's injury prone, but he's still a force when he's on the ice and in the room. I could easily imagine a team with a bunch of young'ns that doesn't need him to play top minutes or be a primary offensive contributor taking him for veteran leadership factor on and off the ice.

I just think you undervalue our players. They have Cup resumes. There's some strong leadership. Just because our roster has gone stale doesn't mean the individual pieces wouldn't have value elsewhere. As I've said repeatedly, context matters and talent evaluators probably consider that a lot more than HF posters do.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It feels like we either under or over value our guys….

 

[Pigskin]

I'm at the point where I say just extend Sandin for 8 years this summer to try to keep the AAV down and to pay for his prime years. I don't need to see him play another season to feel comfortable with him as a mainstay going forward.

He might want to bet on himself next season but with Carlson (probably) returning he might not get the same counting stats that he's going to accumulate the rest of this regular season. He might also just want that long-term security locked up after not being trusted in Toronto.

at the very least you give him a Carlson 6 x $4m contract or Alzner 4 x $3m contract don't you? Would he accept either of those at this point?

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

It feels like we either under or over value our guys….

Isn't that the definition of a "fan"?

 

[Roshi]

Has value;
- Kuznetsov (theres no better boom or bust acquiring in the league than Kuzy)
- Carlson (just look at his contract and stats for the last 6 seasons and tell me he has no value, lol)

+-0, wont fetch a "real" asset but also shouldnt cost to "dump";
- Oshie (ideal target for a young team with cap space, like Buffalo who have Okposo as UFA)
- Mantha (tanking team likely takes him "for free" in hopes to cash in after a good season at the TDL)

Negative value;
- Backstrom (untradable)

Overally it needs to be a "player in-player out" situation. Team needs to compete. The same reasons someone would want Kuzy/Carlson/Oshie/Mantha is the same reason we should be interested to keep them under a possibly new coach.

I wont be opposed to trading Kuzy if we can get ROR or Dubois, but cant see other options to take over. I keep Oshie. I definately keep Carlson as our D already has made the "big move" when moving from Orlov to Sandin. I let Mantha go if I can find a taker.

Sandin is RFA. If he was UFA I would agree to sign long term as soon as possible, but its best for both parties wanting to have extended look before commitment. Best way for the team and the player is likely to bridge out the RFA, and negotiate the big contract at the end of 24-25 season when you have billions of dollars coming out to market (Backs/Oshie/Kuzy ends - and also Ovie/JC/Jensen the next season). Thats where the "rebuild" really begins and we will have no worries with cap space.