Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[YippieKaey]

Has value;
- Kuznetsov (theres no better boom or bust acquiring in the league than Kuzy)
- Carlson (just look at his contract and stats for the last 6 seasons and tell me he has no value, lol)

+-0, wont fetch a "real" asset but also shouldnt cost to "dump";
- Oshie (ideal target for a young team with cap space, like Buffalo who have Okposo as UFA)
- Mantha (tanking team likely takes him "for free" in hopes to cash in after a good season at the TDL)

Negative value;
- Backstrom (untradable)

Overally it needs to be a "player in-player out" situation. Team needs to compete. The same reasons someone would want Kuzy/Carlson/Oshie/Mantha is the same reason we should be interested to keep them under a possibly new coach.

I wont be opposed to trading Kuzy if we can get ROR or Dubois, but cant see other options to take over. I keep Oshie. I definately keep Carlson as our D already has made the "big move" when moving from Orlov to Sandin. I let Mantha go if I can find a taker.

Sandin is RFA. If he was UFA I would agree to sign long term as soon as possible, but its best for both parties wanting to have extended look before commitment. Best way for the team and the player is likely to bridge out the RFA, and negotiate the big contract at the end of 24-25 season when you have billions of dollars coming out to market (Backs/Oshie/Kuzy ends - and also Ovie/JC/Jensen the next season). Thats where the "rebuild" really begins and we will have no worries with cap space.

I agree with most of this and appreciate your line of thinking. But ROR is a bit on the old and declining side don't you think?

 

[g00n]

Isn't that the definition of a "fan"?

Definition? No.
Typical? Yes.

 

[pman25]

at the very least you give him a Carlson 6 x $4m contract or Alzner 4 x $3m contract don't you? Would he accept either of those at this point?

That Carlson contract AAV was signed at 6.6% of the cap then, so an equivalent would be something like 6 x $5.5 in todays cap dollars. Seems pretty cheap

 

[Roshi]

I agree with most of this and appreciate your line of thinking. But ROR is a bit on the old and declining side don't you think?

Sure, dont see him as the face of the "next era"

and id maybe just rather hang on to Kuzy tbh, but if people are set to move on from Kuzy id figure ROR could fit the time line of next 2-3 years as replacement. Just spitting some names as we dont have much hockey left this year...

 

[YippieKaey]

Sure, dont see him as the face of the "next era"

and id maybe just rather hang on to Kuzy tbh, but if people are set to move on from Kuzy id figure ROR could fit the time line of next 2-3 years as replacement. Just spitting some names as we dont have much hockey left this year...

Well yeah, why not haha.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

38 Special

probably won't catch on in a city where "Bullets" became taboo and Joe B stopped saying "bullet" to describe a hard shot and changed it to "BB"

Well we already had our 44 Magnum with Orpik, so why not! Still room for a 45, 22, 32 along the blue line although we just sent our 9 to Boston.

 

[crazy8888]

If I recall correctly Ovechkin is actually one of the stronger zone-exit forwards in the league according to the microstats. It should help his defensive numbers a bit, but I suspect many people look at a player's defensive impact solely as in-zone defending vs. how players defend on the entirety of the ice.

I think a lot of Ovechkin's defensive shortcomings actually appear in the offensive zone, which lead to a ton of transition chances against. Same thing with Kuznetsov. I think it's why Kuznetsov is a pretty decent penalty killer but also dreadful defensively at even strength. As a penalty killer he doesn't have to worry about his offensive zone play and puck management in the offensive zone as much. It's also why Ovechkin is still a fine option when the opponent pulls their goalie at the end of the game: he's not going to have to defend rush chances against or maintain possession in the offensive zone.

Interesting point. Yes my responses ragarding defense play were mostly based off in zone defending.
But then the question really becomes, what is a proper way to judge defense on the entire ice as opposed to just the defensive end. Is amount of takeaways a good metric? Is a high number an indication of a poor defensive player? I imagine the latter directly correlates with the amount of time that the player spends having the puck on his stick.

 

[RedRocking]

I know most will just boo this down. But I will again propose a Kuzy for JT Miller swap. One distressed asset for another. Yea, Miller had some bad headlines earlier this year - who knows with that. So did Draisaitl last year. And yea the term is terrible - but will it matter in 4 years anyways?

He’s elevated his play since Tocchet took over, playing in his own end, killing penalties (and scoring shorties). Fact is he has 62 pts (25+37) in 65 games, along with 142 hits.

You sure you wouldn’t take that over Kuzy, with his stellar 11 goals, and 5000 turnovers/60?

Or maybe the Avs would take Kuzy as they really need a legit 2C during this contention window. Maybe we could take a guy like Newhook back.

 

[Acallabeth]

I know most will just boo this down. But I will again propose a Kuzy for JT Miller swap. One distressed asset for another. Yea, Miller had some bad headlines earlier this year - who knows with that. So did Draisaitl last year. And yea the term is terrible - but will it matter in 4 years anyways?

He’s elevated his play since Tocchet took over, playing in his own end, killing penalties (and scoring shorties). Fact is he has 62 pts (25+37) in 65 games, along with 142 hits.

You sure you wouldn’t take that over Kuzy, with his stellar 11 goals, and 5000 turnovers/60?

Its hard to see a straight swap when comparing their production. Adding futures might possibly hurt the team's future, while the improvement isn't likely to elevate them enough to contend.
And the contract is so long it could be an issue even after the rebuild.
Not even connenting on his personality.

 

[Corby78]

Crazy that both of Ted teams Wiz and Caps are in the same place right now. #8-12 draft pick with no hope for the playoffs. Overpaid core that we cant move off from. Spending to the Max on overpaid players Beal and Backstrom we should have walked away from with contracts that cripple the teams chances to contend.

One is there after making multiple serious runs, winning it all, and being the top regular season team multiple years. The other hasn’t ever moved from that spot. They are not the same.

 

[Kuz]

As we are most likely out unless they go an insane run the game vs Buffalo is important. With a loss Buffalo will most likely finish ahead as they will have a 2 point gap and 2 extra games in hand. Meaning on their average pace they should have 4-5 points on us with the same amount of games.

With a win it will be much more likely with a finish ahead of Buffalo as it probably kills their hope of a playoff spot. Also playing St Louis this week and with a loss in that game they arent really that far behind (6 points with 2 games to go). Also a Vancouver team that have been really good lately makes thing interesting in the tank race.

Caps can pretty much finish anywhere between 16th (ahead of Isles) to 25th based on how they finish this season.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

As we are most likely out unless they go an insane run the game vs Buffalo is important. With a loss Buffalo will most likely finish ahead as they will have a 2 point gap and 2 extra games in hand. Meaning on their average pace they should have 4-5 points on us with the same amount of games.

With a win it will be much more likely with a finish ahead of Buffalo as it probably kills their hope of a playoff spot. Also playing St Louis this week and with a loss in that game they arent really that far behind (6 points with 2 games to go). Also a Vancouver team that have been really good lately makes thing interesting in the tank race.

Caps can pretty much finish anywhere between 16th (ahead of Isles) to 25th based on how they finish this season.

25th baby….let’s goooooo

 

[twabby]

Interesting point. Yes my responses ragarding defense play were mostly based off in zone defending.
But then the question really becomes, what is a proper way to judge defense on the entire ice as opposed to just the defensive end. Is amount of takeaways a good metric? Is a high number an indication of a poor defensive player? I imagine the latter directly correlates with the amount of time that the player spends having the puck on his stick.

I think the defensive components of GAR/xGAR and RAPM do a reasonable job of measuring on-ice impact on goals against without limiting it to just in-zone defense. I think Hockeyviz also does a pretty good job. For reference here's Hockeyviz's portrait of Ovechkin's impact both offensively and defensively:

Micah doesn't have an easily sortable database, but on a cursory glance I haven't been able to find anyone with a worse defensive impact in this model than Ovechkin.

Another, separate WAR model has Ovechkin as the 5th worst forward in the NHL, behind only Patrick Kane, Mikael Granlund, Frank Vatrano, and Max Domi:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/topdownhockey/viz/WinsAboveReplacement2022-2023/WinsAboveReplacement

These are three completely separate models that have Ovechkin at or near the bottom in terms of defensive impact. I think that's enough to conclude that maybe the guy just isn't a good defensive forward, which is fine!

Again, I'm not in the business of calling him out because he's earned the right to struggle at times given how much he's carried this franchise. I'm just trying to defend the statistic because @g00n so rudely bashed it with no justification!

 

[g00n]

I think the defensive components of GAR/xGAR and RAPM do a reasonable job of measuring on-ice impact on goals against without limiting it to just in-zone defense. I think Hockeyviz also does a pretty good job. For reference here's Hockeyviz's portrait of Ovechkin's impact both offensively and defensively:

View attachment 669397

Micah doesn't have an easily sortable database, but on a cursory glance I haven't been able to find anyone with a worse defensive impact in this model than Ovechkin.

Another, separate WAR model has Ovechkin as the 5th worst forward in the NHL, behind only Patrick Kane, Mikael Granlund, Frank Vatrano, and Max Domi:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/topdownhockey/viz/WinsAboveReplacement2022-2023/WinsAboveReplacement

These are three completely separate models that have Ovechkin at or near the bottom in terms of defensive impact. I think that's enough to conclude that maybe the guy just isn't a good defensive forward, which is fine!

Again, I'm not in the business of calling him out because he's earned the right to struggle at times given how much he's carried this franchise. I'm just trying to defend the statistic because @g00n so rudely bashed it with no justification!

Oh it was justified.

 

[crazy8888]

I think the defensive components of GAR/xGAR and RAPM do a reasonable job of measuring on-ice impact on goals against without limiting it to just in-zone defense. I think Hockeyviz also does a pretty good job. For reference here's Hockeyviz's portrait of Ovechkin's impact both offensively and defensively:

View attachment 669397

Micah doesn't have an easily sortable database, but on a cursory glance I haven't been able to find anyone with a worse defensive impact in this model than Ovechkin.

Another, separate WAR model has Ovechkin as the 5th worst forward in the NHL, behind only Patrick Kane, Mikael Granlund, Frank Vatrano, and Max Domi:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/topdownhockey/viz/WinsAboveReplacement2022-2023/WinsAboveReplacement

These are three completely separate models that have Ovechkin at or near the bottom in terms of defensive impact. I think that's enough to conclude that maybe the guy just isn't a good defensive forward, which is fine!

Again, I'm not in the business of calling him out because he's earned the right to struggle at times given how much he's carried this franchise. I'm just trying to defend the statistic because @g00n so rudely bashed it with no justification!

I dont want to argue statistics, and looks like you are much better at reading these charts so i will not argue with you about those. Honestly it will take me a long time and a lot of squinting and rubbing the back fo my head to figure out these charts you are showing lol. I never really pay attention to them. Ill take your word for it that statistically Ovi is at the bottom of the league. All im saying is that the eye test does not fully support these numbers. Again, im not saying he is very good at defending (regardless of what part of the ice), im just saying that he is not some black hole on the ice because of his defensive play. I suspect that these stats are not 100% accurate in determining the randmoness of a hockey game, luck and other small factors that you may not be able to account for statistically.

You ofen see players play exactly the same way and some seasons the puck just keeps going in for them and others they cant buy a goal to save their life. Weve seen games where Ovechkin had 15 shots on net and not score at all and then another game with 4 shots on net and 3 goals. Jeff Schultz led the league in +/- category one year and we all knew what actual product we saw on the ice. Jonathan Toews got paid $10M per year and voted into 100 best player list mostly based on "intangibles" stats that cannot be mathematically measured.
I digress but i think you get my point. Hockey is randmon. Every season is different. Shit happens. I am not knocking stats of those who who put high value on them. Just saying that stats do not always tell the whole story.

 

[Misery74]

I wonder who gets the cage tonight? My guess is Laviolette trots DK out again.

 

[twabby]

I dont want to argue statistics, and looks like you are much better at reading these charts so i will not argue with you about those. Honestly it will take me a long time and a lot of squinting and rubbing the back fo my head to figure out these charts you are showing lol. I never really pay attention to them. Ill take your word for it that statistically Ovi is at the bottom of the league. All im saying is that the eye test does not fully support these numbers. Again, im not saying he is very good at defending (regardless of what part of the ice), im just saying that he is not some black hole on the ice because of his defensive play. I suspect that these stats are not 100% accurate in determining the randmoness of a hockey game, luck and other small factors that you may not be able to account for statistically.

You ofen see players play exactly the same way and some seasons the puck just keeps going in for them and others they cant buy a goal to save their life. Weve seen games where Ovechkin had 15 shots on net and not score at all and then another game with 4 shots on net and 3 goals. Jeff Schultz led the league in +/- category one year and we all knew what actual product we saw on the ice. Jonathan Toews got paid $10M per year and voted into 100 best player list mostly based on "intangibles" stats that cannot be mathematically measured.
I digress but i think you get my point. Hockey is randmon. Every season is different. Shit happens. I am not knocking stats of those who who put high value on them. Just saying that stats do not always tell the whole story.

I don't think Ovechkin is a black hole even this year despite GAR not rating him highly. From my understanding Evolving-Hockey's version of GAR is more of a results-based view of a player, while xGAR is more of a process-based view that takes into account historical priors such as shooting talent and weighs scoring chance impacts more than results. As @bacchist mentioned earlier xGAR rates Ovechkin much higher than GAR this season. Indeed Alex Ovechkin despite missing time this year rates as the 37th best offensive forward this year at ES according to xGAR. He's in the same neighborhood as Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, and Leon Draisaitl in this measure. I think his xGAR being so much higher than his GAR jives with the fact that Ovechkin just isn't getting the bounces this year that he usually gets. His 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage this year is 8.73%, which is the worst it's been since 2014-15. His individual 5v5 shooting percentage is 10.76%, which is the worst since 2016-17. He's still generating chances, but he and his teammates just aren't burying them as often as in the past.

But I do think that if we are looking at Ovechkin objectively and we are putting aside our 18-year fascination and adoration of him we need to acknowledge that his defensive struggles are real, they are significant, and they need to be mitigated if they hope to have success next season. I think mitigating these struggles includes saying goodbye to Kuznetsov this offseason, for instance.

 

[g00n]

I don't think Ovechkin is a black hole even this year despite GAR not rating him highly. From my understanding Evolving-Hockey's version of GAR is more of a results-based view of a player, while xGAR is more of a process-based view that takes into account historical priors such as shooting talent and weighs scoring chance impacts more than results. As @bacchist mentioned earlier xGAR rates Ovechkin much higher than GAR this season. Indeed Alex Ovechkin despite missing time this year rates as the 37th best offensive forward this year at ES according to xGAR. He's in the same neighborhood as Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, and Leon Draisaitl in this measure. I think his xGAR being so much higher than his GAR jives with the fact that Ovechkin just isn't getting the bounces this year that he usually gets. His 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage this year is 8.73%, which is the worst it's been since 2014-15. His individual 5v5 shooting percentage is 10.76%, which is the worst since 2016-17. He's still generating chances, but he and his teammates just aren't burying them as often as in the past.

But I do think that if we are looking at Ovechkin objectively and we are putting aside our 18-year fascination and adoration of him we need to acknowledge that his defensive struggles are real and they need to be mitigated if they hope to have success next season. I think that includes saying goodbye to Kuznetsov this offseason, for instance.

I'm not reading all this to remind you the graph that was posted was GAA not GAR or x anything.

A guy who's point per game with 25 ESG and is -6 is not the 2nd worse "goals above average" guy on the team and should not have such a horrid ESD rating.

 

[twabby]

I'm not reading all this to remind you the graph that was posted was GAA not GAR or x anything.

GAA is GAR except it compares the player to an average player rather than a replacement level player. It's the same methodology.

 

[g00n]

GAA is GAR except it compares the player to an average player rather than a replacement level player. It's the same methodology.

Great. That's even worse.

A guy who's point per game with 25 ESG and is -6 is not the 2nd worse "goals above average" guy on the team and should not have such a horrid ESD rating.

 

[g00n]

For those of us who don't have access to the stat subscription, how does that compare to other top scoring forwards around the league?

 

[twabby]

For those of us who don't have access to the stat subscription, how does that compare to other top scoring forwards around the league?

How does what compare? His defensive impact, or overall impact?

I'll look it up.

 

[bacchist]

For the record, I didn't post that graphic to call out Ovechkin or anything. I just thought it was striking that the expensive core forwards were bunched up at the bottom.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

At the risk of being tarred and feathered here, I'm here to advocate for a top line of Ovechkin-Strome-Mantha the rest of the season and I'm also here to say that I think there's still a good player in Mantha. Maybe not a top line guy but certainly a strong middle six winger who they'd be better off keeping next season and hoping a new coach will help him get his confidence back.

There's no question he's had a rough second half to the season -- people either forget or fail to mention that he was on pace for 20+ goals and 50+ points through December and almost all of his points have come at even strength, and he's still tied for 4th on the team in ES goals this season despite not scoring almost at all in 2023 -- but the underlying metrics are there and it's clear his finishing has fallen off a cliff which has broken his confidence and tainted perceptions of him. He has the best two-way chart of any forward on this team, which is also an indictment on the rest of the team.

Strome and Mantha are both at the top of the charts in terms of setting and distribution and Mantha is strong enough defensively to make up for Ovi's defense (or lack thereof). Kuznetsov should be a healthy scratch. His play has actively hurt the team all year and it's embarrassing for a player of his caliber, and if Lavi has any sort of standard he's trying to uphold then he should scratch Kuznetsov just as he's scratched other guys for performance issues. At the very least he should be off the top line.

 

[Kalopsia]

...

These are three completely separate models that have Ovechkin at or near the bottom in terms of defensive impact. I think that's enough to conclude that maybe the guy just isn't a good defensive forward, which is fine!

Again, I'm not in the business of calling him out because he's earned the right to struggle at times given how much he's carried this franchise. I'm just trying to defend the statistic because @g00n so rudely bashed it with no justification!

Are they really? Just based on what gets posted on twitter whenever a player signs/gets traded, I can't remember ever seeing the models differ significantly in their evaluation of a player. Either they converge because they're all perfect or because they all use similar inputs and methodology and thus are all subject to the same issues and biases. I know which one I'd put my money on.